Bellwether

A bellwether is any entity in a given arena that serves to create or influence trends or to presage future happenings; the term is derived from the Middle English bellewether and refers to the practice of placing a bell around the neck of a castrated ram (a wether) in order that this animal might lead its flock of sheep.

In sociology, the term is applied in the active sense to a person or group of people who tend to create, influence or set trends.

In politics, the term is more often applied in the passive sense to describe a geographic region of which the political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might be understood to predict reliably that in the latter. In a Westminster-style election, for example, a constituency, the control of which tends frequently to change, often mirrors in its popular vote in any given election, that which occurs on a national scale; in the United Kingdom, Basildon is often advanced as one such region. In the United States, Missouri, often referred to as the Missouri bellwether, is considered as such a region, having produced, since 1904, the same result as did the national election in every election to be President of the United States save that of 1956.

The Bellwether states are: Nevada Missouri Delaware

In the stock market, a bellwether is the stock of a company that is regarded as a leader in its given industry—as, for example, IBM in the computer industry—such that the performance of the company may be understood to reflect the extant or predict the future performance of the industry writ large.

See also