Civilian casualty ratio: Difference between revisions
NATO in Yugoslavia {{dubious|date=December 2010}} |
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==Conventional wars== |
==Conventional wars== |
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| ⚫ | Although it's estimated at least 1 million people died in the [[Mexican Revolution]], most died from disease and hunger as an indirect result of the war. Combat deaths are generally agreed to have totaled about 250,000. According to Eckhardt, these included 125,000 civilian deaths and 125,000 military deaths, creating a civilian-combatant death ratio of 1:1 among combat deaths.<ref>[http://users.erols.com/mwhite28/warstat2.htm Twentieth Century Atlas – Death Tolls]. Users.erols.com. Retrieved on 2010-11-28.</ref><ref>[http://www.hist.umn.edu/~rmccaa/missmill/mxrev.htm Missing Millions: The human cost of the Mexican Revolution, 1910–1930]. Hist.umn.edu. Retrieved on 2010-11-28.</ref> |
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===World War I=== |
===World War I=== |
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The median total estimated Korean civilian deaths in the [[Korean War]] is 1,547,000. The median total estimated Korean military deaths is 429,827. The civilian-combatant death ratio among Korean casualties is 36:10. |
The median total estimated Korean civilian deaths in the [[Korean War]] is 1,547,000. The median total estimated Korean military deaths is 429,827. The civilian-combatant death ratio among Korean casualties is 36:10. |
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<ref>[http://users.erols.com/mwhite28/warstat2.htm Twentieth Century Atlas – Death Tolls]. Users.erols.com. Retrieved on 2010-11-29.</ref> |
<ref>[http://users.erols.com/mwhite28/warstat2.htm Twentieth Century Atlas – Death Tolls]. Users.erols.com. Retrieved on 2010-11-29.</ref> |
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| ⚫ | The Vietnamese government has estimated the number of Vietnamese civilians killed in the war at two million, and the number of [[North Vietnamese Army|NVA]] and [[Viet Cong]] killed at 1.1 million - estimates which approximate those of a number of other sources. This would give a civilian-combatant fatality rate of approximately 2:1, or about 65%. These figures do not include civilians killed in [[Cambodia]] and [[Laos]]. |
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===NATO in Yugoslavia=== |
===NATO in Yugoslavia=== |
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{{see also|Civilian casualties during Operation Allied Force}} |
{{see also|Civilian casualties during Operation Allied Force}} |
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According to military historian and Israeli Ambassador to the United States [[Michael Oren]], for every [[Serbia]]n soldier killed by [[NATO]] in 1999 (the period in which [[Operation Allied Force]] took place), four civilians died, a civilian to combatant casualty ratio of 4:1. Oren cites this figure as evidence that "even the most moral army can make mistakes, especially in dense urban warfare".<ref>Michael Oren, [http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2009/09/24/un_report_a_victory_for_terror/ UN report a victory for terror], Boston Globe 24-09-2009</ref>{{dubious|date=December 2010}} |
According to military historian and Israeli Ambassador to the United States [[Michael Oren]], for every [[Serbia]]n soldier killed by [[NATO]] in 1999 (the period in which [[Operation Allied Force]] took place), four civilians died, a civilian to combatant casualty ratio of 4:1. Oren cites this figure as evidence that "even the most moral army can make mistakes, especially in dense urban warfare".<ref>Michael Oren, [http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2009/09/24/un_report_a_victory_for_terror/ UN report a victory for terror], Boston Globe 24-09-2009</ref>{{dubious|date=December 2010}} |
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==Guerilla wars and insurgencies== |
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This category includes wars which were fought mainly as [[guerilla war]]s or [[insurgency|insurgencies]]. |
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| ⚫ | Although it's estimated at least 1 million people died in the [[Mexican Revolution]], most died from disease and hunger as an indirect result of the war. Combat deaths are generally agreed to have totaled about 250,000. According to Eckhardt, these included 125,000 civilian deaths and 125,000 military deaths, creating a civilian-combatant death ratio of 1:1 among combat deaths.<ref>[http://users.erols.com/mwhite28/warstat2.htm Twentieth Century Atlas – Death Tolls]. Users.erols.com. Retrieved on 2010-11-28.</ref><ref>[http://www.hist.umn.edu/~rmccaa/missmill/mxrev.htm Missing Millions: The human cost of the Mexican Revolution, 1910–1930]. Hist.umn.edu. Retrieved on 2010-11-28.</ref> |
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| ⚫ | The Vietnamese government has estimated the number of Vietnamese civilians killed in the war at two million, and the number of [[North Vietnamese Army|NVA]] and [[Viet Cong]] killed at 1.1 million - estimates which approximate those of a number of other sources. This would give a civilian-combatant fatality rate of approximately 2:1, or about 65%. These figures do not include civilians killed in [[Cambodia]] and [[Laos]]. |
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==Asymmetric wars== |
==Asymmetric wars== |
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Journalist Yaakov Katz states in ''[[The Jerusalem Post]]'' states that over 81 percent of the 5,000 missiles the IDF dropped in the Gaza Strip during the operation were smart bombs, a percentage which he describes as unprecedented in modern warfare. In spite of this, Katz states that the ratio of civilians to combatants killed in the operation was 1:3 according to the Israeli figures and 60% civilians (3:2) according to B'Tselem's figures, with the latter figure being "not greatly dissimilar" to estimates for the Iraq War.<ref name=katz/> The [[United Nations|UN]]-sponsored [[Goldstone Report]] accused Israel of committing war crimes and possible crimes against humanity during the war. Israel rejected the report's findings.<ref name=irishtimes_1feb2010>[http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2010/0201/1224263503711.html "Israel denies Gaza war crimes in report to UN"], Rory McCarthy, irishtimes.com, 2010-02-01.</ref> |
Journalist Yaakov Katz states in ''[[The Jerusalem Post]]'' states that over 81 percent of the 5,000 missiles the IDF dropped in the Gaza Strip during the operation were smart bombs, a percentage which he describes as unprecedented in modern warfare. In spite of this, Katz states that the ratio of civilians to combatants killed in the operation was 1:3 according to the Israeli figures and 60% civilians (3:2) according to B'Tselem's figures, with the latter figure being "not greatly dissimilar" to estimates for the Iraq War.<ref name=katz/> The [[United Nations|UN]]-sponsored [[Goldstone Report]] accused Israel of committing war crimes and possible crimes against humanity during the war. Israel rejected the report's findings.<ref name=irishtimes_1feb2010>[http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2010/0201/1224263503711.html "Israel denies Gaza war crimes in report to UN"], Rory McCarthy, irishtimes.com, 2010-02-01.</ref> |
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==See also== |
==See also== |
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Revision as of 06:37, 8 December 2010
In armed conflicts, the civilian casualty ratio (also civilian death ratio, civilian-combatant ratio, etc.) is the ratio of civilian casualties to combatant casualties, or total casualties. The measurement can apply either to casualties inflicted by a particular belligerent, or to casualties in the conflict as a whole.
According to a 2001 study by the International Committee of the Red Cross, the civilian-to-soldier death ratio in wars fought since the mid-20th century has been 10:1, meaning ten civilian deaths for every soldier death.[1]
Mary Kaldor writes that the civilian to combatant casualty ratio was 8:1 in wars in the 1990s, meaning eight civilian deaths for every combatant death. This constitutes a reversal of the ratio at the turn of the 20th Century, which stood at 1:8, meaning only one civilian death for every eight combatant deaths.[2][dubious ]
Conventional wars
World War I
The civilian casualty rate in World War I was approximately 2:3 or 40%. Most of the civilian fatalities were due to famine or Spanish flu rather than military action. The low rate of civilian fatalities caused by military action is due to the fact that the front lines for most of the war were static, so that civilians were able to avoid the combat zones.
World War II
The civilian to combatant fatality rate in World War II lies somewhere between 3:2 and 2:1, or from 60% to 67%. The hgih rate of civilian casualties in this war was due in part to the increasing lethality of strategic weapons, used to target enemy industrial or population centres, and famines caused by economic disruption. A substantial number of civilians in this war were also deliberately killed by the Axis Powers as a result of racial policies (for example, the Holocaust) or ethnic cleansing campaigns.
Korean War
The median total estimated Korean civilian deaths in the Korean War is 1,547,000. The median total estimated Korean military deaths is 429,827. The civilian-combatant death ratio among Korean casualties is 36:10. [3]
NATO in Yugoslavia
According to military historian and Israeli Ambassador to the United States Michael Oren, for every Serbian soldier killed by NATO in 1999 (the period in which Operation Allied Force took place), four civilians died, a civilian to combatant casualty ratio of 4:1. Oren cites this figure as evidence that "even the most moral army can make mistakes, especially in dense urban warfare".[4][dubious ]
Guerilla wars and insurgencies
This category includes wars which were fought mainly as guerilla wars or insurgencies.
Mexican Revolution (1910–20)
Although it's estimated at least 1 million people died in the Mexican Revolution, most died from disease and hunger as an indirect result of the war. Combat deaths are generally agreed to have totaled about 250,000. According to Eckhardt, these included 125,000 civilian deaths and 125,000 military deaths, creating a civilian-combatant death ratio of 1:1 among combat deaths.[5][6]
Vietnam War
The Vietnamese government has estimated the number of Vietnamese civilians killed in the war at two million, and the number of NVA and Viet Cong killed at 1.1 million - estimates which approximate those of a number of other sources. This would give a civilian-combatant fatality rate of approximately 2:1, or about 65%. These figures do not include civilians killed in Cambodia and Laos.
Asymmetric wars
Asymmetric wars are wars fought between a conventional army on one side and a much weaker guerilla or militia army on the other. In this type of warfare, the weaker side often hides amongst a civilian population to avoid destruction, venturing out infrequently to launch suprise attacks on enemy forces or terrorist attacks on the enemy's civilian populace in order to try and weaken their opponent's will to continue the fight. The conventional army, by contrast, often finds its superior firepower of limited effectiveness and struggles to distinguish enemy combatants from civilians.
Chechen wars
During the First Chechen War, 4,000 separatist fighters and 40,000 civilians are estimated to have died, giving a civilian-combatant ratio of 10:1. The numbers for the Second Chechen War are 3,000 fighters and 13,000 civilians, for a ratio of 43:10. The combined ratio for both wars is 76:10. The casualty numbers for the conflict are notoriously unrealiable. The estimates of the civilian casualties during the First Chechen war range from 20,000 to 100,000, with remaining numbers being similarly unrealiable. [7]
Coalition forces in the Iraq War
According to a 2010 assessment by John Sloboda of Iraq Body Count, a United Kingdom-based organization, American and Coalition forces had killed at least 22,668 combatants as well as 13,807 civilians in the Iraq War, indicating an essential civilian to combatant casualty ratio of 1:2.[8]
US drone strikes in Pakistan
According to a report by Daniel L. Byman of the Brookings Institution, United States drone strikes in Pakistan kill "10 or so civilians" for every militant killed, a civilian to combatant casualty ratio of 10:1. Byman argues that this ratio constitutes a humanitarian tragedy and creates dangerous political problems, including damage to the legitimacy of the Pakistani government and alienation of the Pakistani populace from America.[9]
Israel in the Israel-Gaza conflict
Israel's military activities in the Israel-Gaza conflict have included a campaign of targeted assassinations of militants in the Gaza Strip since 2000, as well as several concentrated operations, the most severe of which was Operation Cast Lead during the 2008–2009 Gaza War.
Targeted assassinations
The civilian casualty rate of the targeted assassinations was surveyed by Haaretz military journalist Amos Harel. In 2002 and 2003, the ratio was 1:1, meaning one civilian killed for every militant killed. Harel called this period "the dark days" because of the relatively high civilian death toll as compared to later years. He attributed this to an Israeli Air Force (IAF) practice of attacking militants even when they were located in densely populated areas. While there were always safety rules, argued Harel, these were "bent" at times in view of the target's importance.[10]
The civilian casualty ratio dropped steeply to 1:28 in late 2005, meaning one civilian killed for every 28 militants killed. Harel credited this drop to the new IAF chief Eliezer Shkedi's policies. The ratio rose again in 2006 to 1:10, a fact that Harel blamed on "several IAF mishaps". However, in 2007 and 2008 the ratio dropped to an unprecedented level of less than 1:30, or 2–3 percent of the total casualties being civilian.[10]
Figures showing an improvement from 1:1 in 2002 to 1:30 in 2008 were also cited by Jerusalem Post journalist Yaakov Katz. Katz attributes the IDF's low ratio in the year preceding the Gaza War to Israel's investment in special weapons systems, including small smart bombs that minimize collateral damage, and to an upscaled Israeli effort to warn civilians to flee areas and to divert missiles at the last moment if civilians entered a planned strike zone.[8]
Gaza War
Several analysts have attempted to calculate the Israel Defense Force's cvilian casualty ratio in Operation Cast Lead during the Gaza War. All have noted that the ratio differs significantly depending on which figures are used regarding the total number of casualties and their identity. The main sets of figures are those published by the IDF, essentially corroborated by Hamas, the opposing belligerent in the conflict, on the one hand; and those published by B'Tselem on the other hand.
Journalist Yaakov Katz states in The Jerusalem Post states that over 81 percent of the 5,000 missiles the IDF dropped in the Gaza Strip during the operation were smart bombs, a percentage which he describes as unprecedented in modern warfare. In spite of this, Katz states that the ratio of civilians to combatants killed in the operation was 1:3 according to the Israeli figures and 60% civilians (3:2) according to B'Tselem's figures, with the latter figure being "not greatly dissimilar" to estimates for the Iraq War.[8] The UN-sponsored Goldstone Report accused Israel of committing war crimes and possible crimes against humanity during the war. Israel rejected the report's findings.[11]
See also
References
- ^ Sabrina Tavernise and Andrew W. Lehren, A Grim Portrait of Civilian Deaths in Iraq, New York Times 22-10-2010
- ^ Mary Kaldor, New and Old Wars, Stanford University Press 1998, p. 9
- ^ Twentieth Century Atlas – Death Tolls. Users.erols.com. Retrieved on 2010-11-29.
- ^ Michael Oren, UN report a victory for terror, Boston Globe 24-09-2009
- ^ Twentieth Century Atlas – Death Tolls. Users.erols.com. Retrieved on 2010-11-28.
- ^ Missing Millions: The human cost of the Mexican Revolution, 1910–1930. Hist.umn.edu. Retrieved on 2010-11-28.
- ^ Zürcher, Christoph. The post-Soviet wars: rebellion, ethnic conflict, and nationhood in the Caucasus. p. 100.
- ^ a b c Yaakov Katz, Analysis: Lies, leaks, death tolls & statistics, Jerusalem Post 29-10-2010
- ^ Daniel L. Byman, Do Targeted Killings Work?, Brookings 14-07-2009
- ^ a b Amos Harel, Pinpoint attacks on Gaza more precise, Haaretz (unknown date)
- ^ "Israel denies Gaza war crimes in report to UN", Rory McCarthy, irishtimes.com, 2010-02-01.