Climate Forecast Applications Network
| Founded | 2006 |
|---|---|
| Founder |
|
| Headquarters | Reno, NV , United States |
| Website | cfanclimate |
Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN) is a company that develops weather and climate forecast tools and provides research and consulting services to manage weather and climate risks. CFAN was started in 2006 by Judith Curry and Peter Webster in Georgia Tech’s Enterprise Innovation Institute VentureLab program.[1]
Background
One of CFAN's first projects was Climate Forecast Applications in Bangladesh (CFAB).[2][3] In 1998, 60% of Bangladesh had floods for over three months as the Brahmaputra River and Ganges flooded simultaneously. A 1-10 day hydrologic forecast model was developed in 2000, which became operational in 2003. The model continues to be used in Bangladesh through the Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (RIMES) based in Bangkok, Thailand. Following three years of summer floods in Pakistan, a model was developed for the Indus Valley but has not been used by Pakistan authorities.[4] CFAN has continued to call for improved weather forecasts for South Asia, particularly in context of Cyclone Nargis that struck Myanmar[5] and the storm surge from Super Typhoon Haiyan.
Reception
In Global Flood Hazard: Applications in Modeling, Mapping, and Forecasting, CFAN was called a "notable example" for flood early warning processes, and their system was praised in terms of effectiveness and cost.[6] Their probabilistic forecasts are made available online for customers, and can be used for operational and disaster management.[7] In Reducing Disaster: Early Warning Systems For Climate Change CFAN was cited as an example of "strong institutional networking and commitments" that have facilitated development of flood forecasting schemes and their application, at the international level.[8] In Flood Forecasting: A Global Perspective CFAN's Bangladesh flood timing and flood risk predictions were called "skillful," despite over or under estimates of peak magnitudes.[9]
In 2018 CFAN forecasts were included in a surfing publication. They said CFAN predicted a 60% chance of a normal season and 40% chance for a below-average season with an average predicted ACE value of 73. They noted CFAN’s newer forecast was lower than their earlier numbers and they used a new approach using their five models to incorporate ENSO, stratospheric circulations, and regional North Atlantic processes to predict the upcoming season.[10] In 2019, Nedra Rhone of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution interviewed the president of CFAN regarding hurricane activity, and summarized recent elevated hurricane activity in the Atlantic as being comparable to a period in the 1930s to 1950s, with some of the worst landfalls. Quoting, "Since 1995, we have been in the active phase of the Atlantic Hurricane Cycle."[11]
References
- ^ "Improving Flood Predictions in Developing Nations". www.news.gatech.edu. Retrieved 2020-02-14.
- ^ Webster, P et al. (2010) Extended-range probabilistic forecasts of Ganges and Brahmaputra floods in Bangladesh. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society http://webster.eas.gatech.edu/Papers/BAMS_Webster_etal_2010.pdf
- ^ A.R.SUBBIAH AND S.H.M. FAKHRUDDIN. "LONG LEAD CLIMATE FORECAST APPLICATION TO BENEFIT SOCIETY: EXPERIENCES OF 2007 BANGLADESH FLOODS" (PDF): 8 – via Researchgate.net.
{{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires|journal=(help) - ^ What Pakistan can do to improve its flood management, by Khurram Husain, Herald, November 29, 2016 http://herald.dawn.com/news/1152876
- ^ Bangladesh's Example for a Post-Nargis World, by Andrew Freedman Washington Post, May 14, 2008 http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/05/tropical_cyclone_nargis_which.html
- ^ Schumann, Guy J.-P.; Bates, Paul D.; Apel, Heiko; Aronica, Giuseppe T. (2018-07-18). Global Flood Hazard: Applications in Modeling, Mapping, and Forecasting. John Wiley & Sons. p. 120. ISBN 978-1-119-21786-2.
- ^ Mohanty, U. C.; Mohapatra, M.; Singh, O. P.; Bandyopadhyay, B. K.; Rathore, L. S. (2013-10-12). Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change. Springer Science & Business Media. ISBN 978-94-007-7720-0.
- ^ Singh, Ashbindu; Zommers, Zinta (2014-05-12). Reducing Disaster: Early Warning Systems For Climate Change. Springer. p. 170. ISBN 978-94-017-8598-3.
- ^ Adams, Thomas E.; Pagano, Thomas C. (2016-04-04). Flood Forecasting: A Global Perspective. Academic Press. pp. 401–403. ISBN 978-0-12-801859-0.
- ^ "Early 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Released". Surfline. 2018-04-05. Retrieved 2020-01-28.
- ^ Nedra Rhone, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "How bad might Atlantic hurricane season be this year?". ajc. Retrieved 2020-01-28.