2006 Finnish presidential election: Difference between revisions

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The 2006 Finnish Presidential election is currently (January 2006) in progress, determining the holder of the office of President of Finland for the six-year term until 2012.

The first round of voting took place on the third Sunday of January – in this case 15 January. As no candidate received more than half of the votes, a second round run-off will be held on 29 January between the two candidates who received the most votes – Tarja Halonen and Sauli Niinistö. The newly elected president will formally take office on 1 March, and would have done so on 1 February, had no run-off been necessary (Constitution 55 §).

Advance voting was possible before the election days; days for this in the first round were the 4th, 5th and 7th to 10th of January. [1] Finnish citizens voting abroad could vote in advance from the 4th to the 7th of January. [2] An advantage to advance voting is that those doing so can go to any polling place (which are typically post offices, such as the one shown here [3]) whereas on the actual election day the polling stations are fixed, usually schools, libraries or town halls.

First round

Candidates

The candidates are listed below following their candidate numbers. This list was confirmed by the Electoral District Committee of Helsinki on 15 December 2005. [4]

(See below)
Bjarne Kallis (Christian Democrats)
Sauli Niinistö (National Coalition Party)
Timo Soini (True Finns)
Heidi Hautala (Green League)
Henrik Lax (Swedish People's Party)
Matti Vanhanen (Centre Party); the incumbent Prime Minister of Finland,
Arto Lahti (independent)
Tarja Halonen (Social Democratic Party); the current incumbent (also supported by the Left Alliance)

Number one is not used in the polls, since number 1 resembles an errant pencil scratch, the number 7 and a tickmark, each of which could be accidentally counted as a vote.

Results

File:Fin-pres-2006.jpg

The winning candidate of the first round in Finnish municipalities.

Suffrages 4 272 537 [5], turnout 73.9%.

Final results from the Ministry of Justice, total [6]

candidate	party	votes	%
Tarja Halonen	Social Democratic Party	1,397,030	46.3
Sauli Niinistö	National Coalition Party	725,866	24.1
Matti Vanhanen	Centre Party	561,990	18.6
Heidi Hautala	Green League	105,248	3.5
Timo Soini	True Finns	103,492	3.4
Bjarne Kallis	Christian Democrats	61,483	2.0
Henrik Lax	Swedish People's Party	48,703	1.6
Arto Lahti	(independent)	12,989	0.4

Results of advance voting

candidate	party	votes	%
Tarja Halonen	Social Democratic Party	636,143	49.4
Sauli Niinistö	National Coalition Party	281,901	21.9
Matti Vanhanen	Centre Party	258,034	20.0
Timo Soini	True Finns	33,275	2.6
Heidi Hautala	Green League	31,406	2.4
Bjarne Kallis	Christian Democrats	23,009	1.8
Henrik Lax	Swedish People's Party	17,654	1.4
Arto Lahti	(independent)	5,810	0.5

Runoff election

A second round run-off will be held on 29 January, 2006 between Tarja Halonen (Social Democratic Party) and Sauli Niinistö (National Coalition Party).

Opinion polls predict a close election. A January 19 poll (HS Gallup) gives Halonen 53% and Niinistö 47% of the vote. By comparison, in October 2005 a clear majority of 70% would have voted for Halonen when asked to choose between her and Niinistö. [7]

Four of the six candidates who did not make it to the second round, Matti Vanhanen, Bjarne Kallis, Henrik Lax and Arto Lahti have publicly expressed their support for Sauli Niinistö in the runoff election. This reflects a loose alliance termed porvariyhteistyö in the Finnish media (roughly translated as "bourgeois collaboration"). According to Niinistö and Vanhanen, the main centre-right parties (the National Coalition Party and the Center Party) had agreed about a year earlier on some level of co-operation to better compete with Halonen, who is supported by both the Social Democrats and Left Alliance.

Election themes

The main theme of discussion in the campaign preceding the election was the President's powers and whether they should be limited further. The Green League's candidate Heidi Hautala suggested that the President be completely stripped of all their powers relating to foreign affairs and foreign policy, but this proposal met with fierce resistance from the three candidates of the largest parties – Tarja Halonen, Matti Vanhanen and Sauli Niinistö. Halonen, the main left-wing candidate and incumbent President, has further indicated that the President's powers should not be increased either, since it would, in her opinion, reduce the degree of democratic decision-making.

Another important election theme was the threat of international terrorism and how to counter it. The main right-wing candidate, Sauli Niinistö, stated in the last presidential debate that he would consider Finland's membership "in a more European" North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) after year 2008 to achieve such an end, but this was strongly rejected by the other main candidates. The only candidate openly embracing a NATO-membership was the also right-wing Henrik Lax of the Swedish People's Party. According to a poll carried out by the Taloustutkimus polling agency in July 2005, most Finnish people believe that NATO membership would increase the risk of international terrorism in Finland instead of decreasing it. This is also the view held by Vanhanen, of Centre Party, and Halonen.

Other themes include Christian values emphasised by Bjarne Kallis; stronger ties around the Baltic Sea and a stronger European Union by Henrik Lax; criticism of the EU by Timo Soini and the state of entrepreneurship and the returning of Karelia by Arto Lahti.

Sauli Niinistö raised the state of work as another theme. His campaign slogan is "President of the Workers" (Työväen presidentti) and this has provoked many union activists and left-wing supporters and voters. Niinistö's campaign states that there is neither "left-wing work" or "right-wing work" but only Finnish work for Finnish welfare.

Opinion polls

Here is a collection of latest poll results. The opinion pollsters' methods may vary, as do the samples and the conducting time, which give the differences.

Latest polls	YLE 1/10–11 ¹	MTV3 weeks 52, 1 and 2 ²	HS 1/5–7 ³	HS 12/27–29 ⁴	AL 12/12–29 ⁵	HS 12/7–17 ⁶	YLE 12/9 ⁷	HS 11/05 ⁸	YLE 11/05 ⁹
2 Bjarne Kallis	1 %	1 %	2 %	2 %	1,4 %	2 %	1 %	1 %	1 %
3 Sauli Niinistö	20 %	19 %	21 %	20 %	20,3 %	20 %	18 %	24 %	19 %
4 Timo Soini	4 %	3 %	3 %	2 %	1,4 %	2 %	1 %	1 %	1 %
5 Heidi Hautala	4 %	3 %	3 %	2 %	2,3 %	2 %	2 %	3 %	1 %
6 Henrik Lax	1 %	1 %	1 %	1 %	1,0 %	1 %	1 %	1 %	1 %
7 Matti Vanhanen	18 %	17 %	18 %	18 %	16,5 %	19 %	19 %	18 %	15 %
8 Arto Lahti	1 %	< 1 %	< 1 %	1 %	0,9 %	1 %	na⁷	na⁸	na⁹
9 Tarja Halonen	52 %	55 %	51 %	54 %	56,2 %	55 %	58 %	52 %	61 %

The total percentages may exceed 100% due to rounding.

¹ Conducted via telephone for YLE by Taloustutkimus on January 10th and 11th, and the sample size was 1582 persons. The margin of error is ± 2.5 percentage points.
² Conducted for MTV3 by Research International during the weeks 52, 1 and 2. The sample size was 1200 persons (500 on weeks 52 and 1, 200 on week 2). The margin of error is ± 2.5 percentage For Halonen and ± 3 for Niinistö and Vanhanen.
³ Conducted via telephone for Helsingin Sanomat by Suomen Gallup between January 5th and 7th, and the sample size was 1500 persons living in mainland Finland. The margin of error is ± 2.5 percentage For Halonen and ± 2 for Niinistö and Vanhanen.
⁴ Conducted for Helsingin Sanomat by Suomen Gallup between December 27th and 29th, and the sample size was 1401 persons. The margin of error is ± 2.5 percentage points for the three major candidates.
⁵ Conducted for Aamulehti and Turun Sanomat by MC-Info between December 12th and 29th, and the sample size was 150 persons. The margin of error is ± 1.55 percentage points for the three major candidates.
⁶ Conducted for Helsingin Sanomat by Suomen Gallup between December 7th and 17th, and the sample size was 1400 persons. The margin of error is ± 2.5 percentage points.
⁷ Conducted for YLE by Taloustutkimus, released December 9th, and the sample size was 1400 persons. The margin of error is ± 2.5 percentage points. Arto Lahti wasn't an option in this poll.
⁸ Conducted for Helsingin Sanomat by Suomen Gallup, released November, and the sample size was ?, The margin of error is ± ? percentage points. Arto Lahti wasn't an option in this poll.
⁹ Conducted for YLE by Taloustutkimus, released early November, and the sample size was 1452 persons. The margin of error is ± 2.5 percentage points. Arto Lahti wasn't an option in this poll.

Two of the latest polls made by Suomen gallup (¹,³) raised discussion over whether Halonen would gain the 50%+ majority of the votes necessary to win the election in a single round. According to Helsingin Sanomat, the reason why Halonen's support has decreased in polls might be an increase in the number of people not wanting to reveal their favourite candidate: some of them plead to the secrecy of voting. The airtime and space given by the media for the candidates may have given the candidates with smaller support the opportunity to bring their opinions to the public, which might add to their support in the polls in question.

On the other hand, the latest poll conducted by Research International (²) showed no change in Halonen's popularity between the three different weeks.

The candidates and their supporters read their polls for their advantage. In Timo Soini's mind there is a big surprise waiting in the ballot boxes; one could agree on that if his 4% support (¹) will be realized. Tarja Halonen has stated this election as being the only one showing such a big support to her: "The crossbar is trembling just right", she said on January 10, meaning the excitement of getting the majority of the votes (in this the crossbar is a Finnish figure of speech). Sauli Niinistö publicly stated that there will be a second round between him and Halonen.

Voting

Voting in the Finnish 2006 presidential election takes place from 09:00 to 20:00 on both of the two election days, with specifically designated periods for advance voting before both the first and second rounds. Every municipality is required by law to have at least one polling station. The candidates are voted for directly by the electorate.

The counting of advance votes will start at 15:00, and is expected to finish before 20:00, when the first preliminary results are announced. The preliminary counting of the election day votes will begin at 20:00, after which the votes are delivered to the central election committee in Helsinki, which will perform a recount. The definitive result is confirmed on the following Tuesday at 10:00 at the latest. However, it is likely that enough votes will be counted during the first two or three hours after polling stations close for an unofficial, but clear, result to be announced.

Trivia

The American late night talk show host Conan O'Brien endorsed re-election for Tarja Halonen on his show, in part from a long-standing joke about his physical similarity to the incumbent president. The skits, commentary, and mock campaign ads are seen on Late Night with Conan O'Brien on SubTV, a Finnish cable channel, five days a week (with a 3 day delay). Some tabloid reports and increased hits to Halonen's web site have been attributed to O'Brien's show [8]. The political relevance of this international publicity, however, is questionable.

References

Constitution of Finland, originally published as Nr. 731/1999 in the Statute Book of Finland, later amended. [9]

External links

Presidential Elections 2006 at the Ministry of Justice's website
- Results, to be posted at a later date.
Vaalit 2006 (YLE), presidential election pages privided by the national broadcaster YLE
MTV3 vaalikone, website helping to select the best candidate, provided by the commercial broadcaster MTV3
Presidentinvaalit 2006 (HS), the election website provided by Helsingin Sanomat, the biggest Finnish daily newspaper
Foreign media and candidates in page of Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Campaign pages

@@ Line 24: / Line 24: @@
 # [[Tarja Halonen]] ([[Social Democratic Party of Finland|Social Democratic Party]]); the current [[incumbent]] (also supported by the [[Left Alliance (Finland)|Left Alliance]])
+Number one is not used in the polls, since number 1 resembles an errant pencil scratch, the number 7 and a tickmark, each of which could be accidentally counted as a vote.
-In Finland, the randomly assigned candidate numbers traditionally start from 2, mainly to prevent any candidate from using the "number one" position for publicity.
 ===Results===