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'''Manifold''', formerly known as Manifold Markets, is a reputation-based [[prediction market]].<ref name=":0">{{Cite web |title=Why a "room-temperature superconductor" would be a huge deal |url=https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23816753/superconductor-room-temperature-lk99-quantum-fusion |access-date=2023-08-31 |website=[[Vox (website)|Vox]] |date=7 August 2023 |language=en |quote=Prediction markets have seen wildly varying odds as participants bet for and against the material working out. |archive-date=2023-08-31 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230831113720/https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23816753/superconductor-room-temperature-lk99-quantum-fusion |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Frick |first=Walter |title=Journalists wake up to the power of prediction markets |url=https://www.niemanlab.org/2022/12/journalists-wake-up-to-the-power-of-prediction-markets/ |access-date=2023-08-31 |website=Nieman Lab |archive-date=2023-06-03 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230603011803/https://www.niemanlab.org/2022/12/journalists-wake-up-to-the-power-of-prediction-markets/ |url-status=live }}</ref> Users compete with other users, betting on various topics, from natural disasters like hurricanes to political events.<ref>{{Cite web |title=About |url=https://manifold.markets/sitemap |access-date=2023-08-30 |website=Manifold |language=en |archive-date=2023-04-30 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230430082907/https://manifold.markets/sitemap |url-status=live }}</ref><ref name=":1">{{Cite news | title=Superconductor Superconfusion, KOSA's Hidden Costs and HatGPT | work=The New York Times | date=4 August 2023 | url=https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/04/podcasts/superconductor-superconfusion-kosas-hidden-costs-and-hatgpt.html?showTranscript=1 | access-date=2023-08-31 | language=en | quote=Well, right now, on Manifold Markets, so the question that people are betting on is, will the LK-99 room temp ambient pressure superconductivity preprint replicate before 2025? And right now, the market says that there is a 36 percent chance that this will happen. | last1=Roose | first1=Kevin | last2=Newton | first2=Casey | last3=Land | first3=Davis | last4=Cohn | first4=Rachel | last5=Poyant | first5=Jen | last6=Moxley | first6=Alyssa | last7=Powell | first7=Dan | last8=Ittoop | first8=Elisheba | last9=Lozano | first9=Marion | archive-date=2023-09-02 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230902003402/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/04/podcasts/superconductor-superconfusion-kosas-hidden-costs-and-hatgpt.html?showTranscript=1 | url-status=live }}</ref>
'''Manifold''', formerly known as Manifold Markets, is a reputation-based [[prediction market]].<ref name=":0">{{Cite web |title=Why a "room-temperature superconductor" would be a huge deal |url=https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23816753/superconductor-room-temperature-lk99-quantum-fusion |access-date=2023-08-31 |website=[[Vox (website)|Vox]] |date=7 August 2023 |language=en |quote=Prediction markets have seen wildly varying odds as participants bet for and against the material working out. |archive-date=2023-08-31 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230831113720/https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23816753/superconductor-room-temperature-lk99-quantum-fusion |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Frick |first=Walter |title=Journalists wake up to the power of prediction markets |url=https://www.niemanlab.org/2022/12/journalists-wake-up-to-the-power-of-prediction-markets/ |access-date=2023-08-31 |website=Nieman Lab |archive-date=2023-06-03 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230603011803/https://www.niemanlab.org/2022/12/journalists-wake-up-to-the-power-of-prediction-markets/ |url-status=live }}</ref> Users compete with other users, betting on various user-submitted topics with [[Play money|play-money]] called "Mana." These topics have included the use of nuclear weapons during the [[Russo-Ukrainian War]],<ref>{{Cite web |last=Drljača |first=Gojko |date=2022-09-30 |title=Jutarnji list - Šanse za nuklearni rat u 2023. drastično su porasle: Ovakvo što nije viđeno od Kubanske krize |url=https://www.jutarnji.hr/vijesti/svijet/sanse-za-nuklearni-rat-u-2023-drasticno-su-porasle-ovakvo-sto-nije-videno-od-kubanske-krize-15254863 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221207104435/https://www.jutarnji.hr/vijesti/svijet/sanse-za-nuklearni-rat-u-2023-drasticno-su-porasle-ovakvo-sto-nije-videno-od-kubanske-krize-15254863 |archive-date=2022-12-07 |access-date=2023-08-31 |website=www.jutarnji.hr |language=hr-hr}}</ref> the proposed superconducting material [[LK-99]],<ref name=":0" /><ref name=":1">{{Cite news |last1=Roose |first1=Kevin |last2=Newton |first2=Casey |last3=Land |first3=Davis |last4=Cohn |first4=Rachel |last5=Poyant |first5=Jen |last6=Moxley |first6=Alyssa |last7=Powell |first7=Dan |last8=Ittoop |first8=Elisheba |last9=Lozano |first9=Marion |date=4 August 2023 |title=Superconductor Superconfusion, KOSA's Hidden Costs and HatGPT |language=en |work=The New York Times |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/04/podcasts/superconductor-superconfusion-kosas-hidden-costs-and-hatgpt.html?showTranscript=1 |url-status=live |access-date=2023-08-31 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230902003402/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/04/podcasts/superconductor-superconfusion-kosas-hidden-costs-and-hatgpt.html?showTranscript=1 |archive-date=2023-09-02 |quote=Well, right now, on Manifold Markets, so the question that people are betting on is, will the LK-99 room temp ambient pressure superconductivity preprint replicate before 2025? And right now, the market says that there is a 36 percent chance that this will happen.}}</ref> cryptocurrency,<ref>{{Cite web |last=Haig |first=Samuel |date=2023-08-31 |title=PayPal’s Stablecoin Sees Minimal Activity Three Weeks After Launch |url=https://thedefiant.io/paypal-stablecoin-sees-minimal-activity-three-weeks-after-launch |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230831212442/https://thedefiant.io/paypal-stablecoin-sees-minimal-activity-three-weeks-after-launch |archive-date=2023-08-31 |access-date=2023-09-01 |website=The Defiant |language=en}}</ref> artificial intelligence,<ref>{{Cite web |last=Shapira |first=Liron |title=OpenAI Wants to Harness AI. It Should Pause Instead |url=https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-wants-to-harness-ai-it-should-pause-instead |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230901154717/https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-wants-to-harness-ai-it-should-pause-instead |archive-date=2023-09-01 |access-date=2023-09-01 |website=The Information}}</ref> the [[2024 Republican Party presidential primaries|2024 GOP primary]],<ref>{{Cite web |last=Kessler |first=Sam |date=2023-08-24 |title=After GOP Debate, Blockchain Bettors See Ramaswamy as Most Formidable Trump Challenger |url=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gop-debate-blockchain-bettors-see-174608571.html |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230902003402/https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gop-debate-blockchain-bettors-see-174608571.html |archive-date=2023-09-02 |access-date=2023-09-01 |website=Yahoo Finance |language=en-US}}</ref> and the winners of awards like the [[Oscars]] and the [[Nobel Prize]].<ref name=":2">{{Cite news |last=Roose |first=Kevin |date=2023-10-08 |title=The Wager That Betting Can Change the World |language=en-US |work=The New York Times |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/08/technology/prediction-markets-manifold-manifest.html |access-date=2023-10-08 |issn=0362-4331}}</ref>


⚫
==History==
Manifold hosted Manifest, a forecasting conference, in September 2023. Attendees included [[Nate Silver]], [[Robin Hanson]], [[Richard Hanania]], [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]], and [[Destiny (streamer)|Destiny]].<ref name=":2">{{Cite news |last=Roose |first=Kevin |date=2023-10-08 |title=The Wager That Betting Can Change the World |language=en-US |work=The New York Times |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/08/technology/prediction-markets-manifold-manifest.html |access-date=2023-10-08 |issn=0362-4331}}</ref>
⚫
Manifold was founded in December 2021 by Austin Chen and brothers James and Stephen Grugett.<ref>{{Cite podcast |host=[[Richard Hanania]] |title=Mana from Heaven &vert; Stephen Grugett, James Grugett, & Richard Hanania |url=https://www.cspicenter.com/p/43-mana-from-heaven-steven-grugett#details |access-date=2023-08-31 |website=[[CSPI]]}}</ref>


⚫
Manifold received seed funding from the [[Slate Star Codex|Astral Codex Ten]] grant program.<ref name=":2" /> It has since received $1.5 million in funding from the [[FTX]] Future Fund,<ref>{{Cite news |last=Ashworth |first=Louis |date=2022-12-19 |title=How to spend a million dollars, by Sam Bankman-Fried |work=Financial Times |url=https://www.ft.com/content/9a3b4b78-b18b-4d1f-b28b-05a73525aa61 |url-status=live |access-date=2023-08-31 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230324012701/https://www.ft.com/content/9a3b4b78-b18b-4d1f-b28b-05a73525aa61 |archive-date=2023-03-24}}</ref> and over $340,000 from the Survival and Flourishing Fund.<ref>{{Cite web |title=SFF-2022-H1 S-Process Recommendations Announcement |url=https://survivalandflourishing.fund/sff-2022-h1-recommendations |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230830155527/https://survivalandflourishing.fund/sff-2022-h1-recommendations |archive-date=2023-08-30 |access-date=2023-08-30 |website=Survival and Flourishing.Fund (SFF) |language=en-US}}</ref>
⚫
==Market structure==
⚫
Manifold uses play-money, "Mana", denoted as Ṁ, instead of real-money. Mana can be used on the site and redeemed for charitable donations, but it cannot be redeemed for money otherwise. This allows Manifold to avoid regulations around gambling.<ref name=":2" /><ref>{{Cite web |title=Manifold Markets - EA Forum |url=https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/manifold-markets |access-date=2023-08-30 |website=forum.effectivealtruism.org |language=en |archive-date=2023-08-30 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230830155522/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/manifold-markets |url-status=live }}</ref> Markets use a version of the [[Uniswap]] automated market maker.<ref>{{Cite arXiv |last1=Frongillo |first1=Rafael |last2=Papireddygari |first2=Maneesha |last3=Waggoner |first3=Bo |title=An Axiomatic Characterization of CFMMs and Equivalence to Prediction Markets |date=2023 |class=cs.GT |eprint=2302.00196 }}</ref>


In September 2023, Manifold hosted Manifest, a forecasting conference. Attendees included [[Nate Silver]], [[Robin Hanson]], [[Richard Hanania]], [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]], and [[Destiny (streamer)|Destiny]].<ref name=":2" />
==Topics==
Manifold hosts prediction markets on user-submitted topics. These topics have included the use of nuclear weapons during the [[Russo-Ukrainian War]],<ref>{{Cite web |last=Drljača |first=Gojko |date=2022-09-30 |title=Jutarnji list - Šanse za nuklearni rat u 2023. drastično su porasle: Ovakvo što nije viđeno od Kubanske krize |url=https://www.jutarnji.hr/vijesti/svijet/sanse-za-nuklearni-rat-u-2023-drasticno-su-porasle-ovakvo-sto-nije-videno-od-kubanske-krize-15254863 |url-status=live |access-date=2023-08-31 |website=www.jutarnji.hr |language=hr-hr |archive-date=2022-12-07 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221207104435/https://www.jutarnji.hr/vijesti/svijet/sanse-za-nuklearni-rat-u-2023-drasticno-su-porasle-ovakvo-sto-nije-videno-od-kubanske-krize-15254863 }}</ref> the proposed superconducting material [[LK-99]],<ref name=":0" /><ref name=":1" /> cryptocurrency,<ref>{{Cite web |last=Haig |first=Samuel |date=2023-08-31 |title=PayPal’s Stablecoin Sees Minimal Activity Three Weeks After Launch |url=https://thedefiant.io/paypal-stablecoin-sees-minimal-activity-three-weeks-after-launch |access-date=2023-09-01 |website=The Defiant |language=en |archive-date=2023-08-31 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230831212442/https://thedefiant.io/paypal-stablecoin-sees-minimal-activity-three-weeks-after-launch |url-status=live }}</ref> artificial intelligence,<ref>{{Cite web |last=Shapira |first=Liron |title=OpenAI Wants to Harness AI. It Should Pause Instead |url=https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-wants-to-harness-ai-it-should-pause-instead |access-date=2023-09-01 |website=The Information |archive-date=2023-09-01 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230901154717/https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-wants-to-harness-ai-it-should-pause-instead |url-status=live }}</ref> the [[2024 Republican Party presidential primaries|2024 GOP primary]],<ref>{{Cite web |last=Kessler |first=Sam |date=2023-08-24 |title=After GOP Debate, Blockchain Bettors See Ramaswamy as Most Formidable Trump Challenger |url=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gop-debate-blockchain-bettors-see-174608571.html |access-date=2023-09-01 |website=Yahoo Finance |language=en-US |archive-date=2023-09-02 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230902003402/https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gop-debate-blockchain-bettors-see-174608571.html |url-status=live }}</ref> and the winners of awards like the [[Oscars]] and the [[Nobel Prize]].<ref name=":2" />


⚫
==Market structure==
⚫
==History==
⚫
Manifold uses play-money, "Mana", denoted as Ṁ, instead of real-money. Mana can be used on the site and redeemed for charitable donations, but it cannot be redeemed for money otherwise.<ref>{{Cite web |title=About |url=https://manifold.markets/sitemap |access-date=2023-08-30 |website=Manifold |language=en |archive-date=2023-04-30 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230430082907/https://manifold.markets/sitemap |url-status=live }}</ref> This allows Manifold to avoid regulations around gambling.<ref name=":2" /><ref>{{Cite web |title=Manifold Markets - EA Forum |url=https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/manifold-markets |access-date=2023-08-30 |website=forum.effectivealtruism.org |language=en |archive-date=2023-08-30 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230830155522/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/manifold-markets |url-status=live }}</ref> Markets use a version of the [[Uniswap]] automated market maker.<ref>{{Cite arXiv |last1=Frongillo |first1=Rafael |last2=Papireddygari |first2=Maneesha |last3=Waggoner |first3=Bo |title=An Axiomatic Characterization of CFMMs and Equivalence to Prediction Markets |date=2023 |class=cs.GT |eprint=2302.00196 }}</ref>
⚫
Manifold was founded in December 2021 by Austin Chen and brothers James and Stephen Grugett.<ref>{{Cite podcast |host=[[Richard Hanania]] |title=Mana from Heaven &vert; Stephen Grugett, James Grugett, & Richard Hanania |url=https://www.cspicenter.com/p/43-mana-from-heaven-steven-grugett#details |access-date=2023-08-31 |website=[[CSPI]]}}</ref>

⚫
Manifold received seed funding from the [[Slate Star Codex|Astral Codex Ten]] grant program.<ref name=":2" /> It has since received $1.5 million in funding from the [[FTX]] Future Fund,<ref>{{Cite news |last=Ashworth |first=Louis |date=2022-12-19 |title=How to spend a million dollars, by Sam Bankman-Fried |work=Financial Times |url=https://www.ft.com/content/9a3b4b78-b18b-4d1f-b28b-05a73525aa61 |access-date=2023-08-31 |archive-date=2023-03-24 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230324012701/https://www.ft.com/content/9a3b4b78-b18b-4d1f-b28b-05a73525aa61 |url-status=live }}</ref> and over $340,000 from the Survival and Flourishing Fund.<ref>{{Cite web |title=SFF-2022-H1 S-Process Recommendations Announcement |url=https://survivalandflourishing.fund/sff-2022-h1-recommendations |access-date=2023-08-30 |website=Survival and Flourishing.Fund (SFF) |language=en-US |archive-date=2023-08-30 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230830155527/https://survivalandflourishing.fund/sff-2022-h1-recommendations |url-status=live }}</ref>


==See also==
==See also==

Revision as of 05:15, 13 October 2023

Manifold
File:ManifoldMarkets.png
Manifold front page
Available inEnglish
Founded2021; 3 years ago (2021)
Area servedWorldwide
Founder(s)Austin Chen, James Grugett, Stephen Grugett
URLmanifold.markets
RegistrationOptional
Current statusActive
Written inTypeScript

Manifold, formerly known as Manifold Markets, is a reputation-based prediction market.[1][2] Users compete with other users, betting on various user-submitted topics with play-money called "Mana." These topics have included the use of nuclear weapons during the Russo-Ukrainian War,[3] the proposed superconducting material LK-99,[1][4] cryptocurrency,[5] artificial intelligence,[6] the 2024 GOP primary,[7] and the winners of awards like the Oscars and the Nobel Prize.[8]

History

Manifold was founded in December 2021 by Austin Chen and brothers James and Stephen Grugett.[9]

Manifold received seed funding from the Astral Codex Ten grant program.[8] It has since received $1.5 million in funding from the FTX Future Fund,[10] and over $340,000 from the Survival and Flourishing Fund.[11]

In September 2023, Manifold hosted Manifest, a forecasting conference. Attendees included Nate Silver, Robin Hanson, Richard Hanania, Eliezer Yudkowsky, and Destiny.[8]

Market structure

Manifold uses play-money, "Mana", denoted as Ṁ, instead of real-money. Mana can be used on the site and redeemed for charitable donations, but it cannot be redeemed for money otherwise.[12] This allows Manifold to avoid regulations around gambling.[8][13] Markets use a version of the Uniswap automated market maker.[14]

See also

References

  1. ^ a b "Why a "room-temperature superconductor" would be a huge deal". Vox. 7 August 2023. Archived from the original on 2023-08-31. Retrieved 2023-08-31. Prediction markets have seen wildly varying odds as participants bet for and against the material working out.
  2. ^ Frick, Walter. "Journalists wake up to the power of prediction markets". Nieman Lab. Archived from the original on 2023-06-03. Retrieved 2023-08-31.
  3. ^ Drljača, Gojko (2022-09-30). "Jutarnji list - Šanse za nuklearni rat u 2023. drastično su porasle: Ovakvo što nije viđeno od Kubanske krize". www.jutarnji.hr (in Croatian). Archived from the original on 2022-12-07. Retrieved 2023-08-31.
  4. ^ Roose, Kevin; Newton, Casey; Land, Davis; Cohn, Rachel; Poyant, Jen; Moxley, Alyssa; Powell, Dan; Ittoop, Elisheba; Lozano, Marion (4 August 2023). "Superconductor Superconfusion, KOSA's Hidden Costs and HatGPT". The New York Times. Archived from the original on 2023-09-02. Retrieved 2023-08-31. Well, right now, on Manifold Markets, so the question that people are betting on is, will the LK-99 room temp ambient pressure superconductivity preprint replicate before 2025? And right now, the market says that there is a 36 percent chance that this will happen.
  5. ^ Haig, Samuel (2023-08-31). "PayPal's Stablecoin Sees Minimal Activity Three Weeks After Launch". The Defiant. Archived from the original on 2023-08-31. Retrieved 2023-09-01.
  6. ^ Shapira, Liron. "OpenAI Wants to Harness AI. It Should Pause Instead". The Information. Archived from the original on 2023-09-01. Retrieved 2023-09-01.
  7. ^ Kessler, Sam (2023-08-24). "After GOP Debate, Blockchain Bettors See Ramaswamy as Most Formidable Trump Challenger". Yahoo Finance. Archived from the original on 2023-09-02. Retrieved 2023-09-01.
  8. ^ a b c d Roose, Kevin (2023-10-08). "The Wager That Betting Can Change the World". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2023-10-08.
  9. ^ Richard Hanania. "Mana from Heaven | Stephen Grugett, James Grugett, & Richard Hanania". CSPI (Podcast). Retrieved 2023-08-31.
  10. ^ Ashworth, Louis (2022-12-19). "How to spend a million dollars, by Sam Bankman-Fried". Financial Times. Archived from the original on 2023-03-24. Retrieved 2023-08-31.
  11. ^ "SFF-2022-H1 S-Process Recommendations Announcement". Survival and Flourishing.Fund (SFF). Archived from the original on 2023-08-30. Retrieved 2023-08-30.
  12. ^ "About". Manifold. Archived from the original on 2023-04-30. Retrieved 2023-08-30.
  13. ^ "Manifold Markets - EA Forum". forum.effectivealtruism.org. Archived from the original on 2023-08-30. Retrieved 2023-08-30.
  14. ^ Frongillo, Rafael; Papireddygari, Maneesha; Waggoner, Bo (2023). "An Axiomatic Characterization of CFMMs and Equivalence to Prediction Markets". arXiv:2302.00196 [cs.GT].

External links


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