Manifold (prediction market): Difference between revisions
Content deleted Content added
→See also: added PredictIt wikilink |
→Market structure: rewrote some of this section |
||
| Line 24: | Line 24: | ||
==Market structure== |
==Market structure== |
||
Manifold |
Manifold is a [[Prediction market#Reputation-based|reputation-based]] prediction market. The website's play money, 'mana,' can be used on the site and redeemed for charitable donations, but it cannot be redeemed for money otherwise,<ref>{{Cite web |title=About |url=https://manifold.markets/sitemap |access-date=2023-08-30 |website=Manifold |language=en |archive-date=2023-04-30 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230430082907/https://manifold.markets/sitemap |url-status=live }}</ref> allowing Manifold to avoid regulations around gambling.<ref name=":2" /><ref>{{Cite web |title=Manifold Markets - EA Forum |url=https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/manifold-markets |access-date=2023-08-30 |website=forum.effectivealtruism.org |language=en |archive-date=2023-08-30 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230830155522/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/manifold-markets |url-status=live }}</ref> Markets use a version of the [[Uniswap]] automated market maker.<ref>{{Cite arXiv |last1=Frongillo |first1=Rafael |last2=Papireddygari |first2=Maneesha |last3=Waggoner |first3=Bo |title=An Axiomatic Characterization of CFMMs and Equivalence to Prediction Markets |date=2023 |class=cs.GT |eprint=2302.00196 }}</ref> |
||
==See also== |
==See also== |
||
Revision as of 04:43, 17 October 2023
| Available in | English |
|---|---|
| Founded | 2021 |
| Area served | Worldwide |
| Founder(s) | Austin Chen, James Grugett, Stephen Grugett |
| URL | manifold |
| Registration | Optional |
| Current status | Active |
| Written in | TypeScript |
Manifold, formerly known as Manifold Markets, is a prediction market.[1][2] Users compete with other users, betting on various user-submitted topics with play money called 'mana'.[3] These topics have included the use of nuclear weapons during the Russo-Ukrainian War,[4] the proposed superconducting material LK-99,[1][5] cryptocurrency,[6] artificial intelligence,[7] the 2024 GOP primary,[8] and the winners of awards like the Oscars and the Nobel Prize.[9]
History
Manifold was founded in December 2021 by Austin Chen and brothers James and Stephen Grugett.[10]
Manifold received seed funding from the Astral Codex Ten grant program.[9] It has since received $1.5 million in funding from the FTX Future Fund,[11] and over $340,000 from the Survival and Flourishing Fund.[12]
In September 2023, Manifold hosted Manifest, a forecasting conference, in Berkeley, California. Attendees included Nate Silver, Robin Hanson, Richard Hanania, Eliezer Yudkowsky, and Destiny.[9]
Market structure
Manifold is a reputation-based prediction market. The website's play money, 'mana,' can be used on the site and redeemed for charitable donations, but it cannot be redeemed for money otherwise,[13] allowing Manifold to avoid regulations around gambling.[9][14] Markets use a version of the Uniswap automated market maker.[15]
See also
References
- ^ a b "Why a "room-temperature superconductor" would be a huge deal". Vox. 7 August 2023. Archived from the original on 2023-08-31. Retrieved 2023-08-31.
Prediction markets have seen wildly varying odds as participants bet for and against the material working out.
- ^ Frick, Walter. "Journalists wake up to the power of prediction markets". Nieman Lab. Archived from the original on 2023-06-03. Retrieved 2023-08-31.
- ^ "About". Manifold.
- ^ Drljača, Gojko (2022-09-30). "Jutarnji list - Šanse za nuklearni rat u 2023. drastično su porasle: Ovakvo što nije viđeno od Kubanske krize". www.jutarnji.hr (in Croatian). Archived from the original on 2022-12-07. Retrieved 2023-08-31.
- ^ Roose, Kevin; Newton, Casey; Land, Davis; Cohn, Rachel; Poyant, Jen; Moxley, Alyssa; Powell, Dan; Ittoop, Elisheba; Lozano, Marion (4 August 2023). "Superconductor Superconfusion, KOSA's Hidden Costs and HatGPT". The New York Times. Archived from the original on 2023-09-02. Retrieved 2023-08-31.
Well, right now, on Manifold Markets, so the question that people are betting on is, will the LK-99 room temp ambient pressure superconductivity preprint replicate before 2025? And right now, the market says that there is a 36 percent chance that this will happen.
- ^ Haig, Samuel (2023-08-31). "PayPal's Stablecoin Sees Minimal Activity Three Weeks After Launch". The Defiant. Archived from the original on 2023-08-31. Retrieved 2023-09-01.
- ^ Shapira, Liron. "OpenAI Wants to Harness AI. It Should Pause Instead". The Information. Archived from the original on 2023-09-01. Retrieved 2023-09-01.
- ^ Kessler, Sam (2023-08-24). "After GOP Debate, Blockchain Bettors See Ramaswamy as Most Formidable Trump Challenger". Yahoo Finance. Archived from the original on 2023-09-02. Retrieved 2023-09-01.
- ^ a b c d Roose, Kevin (2023-10-08). "The Wager That Betting Can Change the World". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2023-10-08.
- ^ Richard Hanania. "Mana from Heaven | Stephen Grugett, James Grugett, & Richard Hanania". CSPI (Podcast). Retrieved 2023-08-31.
- ^ Ashworth, Louis (2022-12-19). "How to spend a million dollars, by Sam Bankman-Fried". Financial Times. Archived from the original on 2023-03-24. Retrieved 2023-08-31.
- ^ "SFF-2022-H1 S-Process Recommendations Announcement". Survival and Flourishing.Fund (SFF). Archived from the original on 2023-08-30. Retrieved 2023-08-30.
- ^ "About". Manifold. Archived from the original on 2023-04-30. Retrieved 2023-08-30.
- ^ "Manifold Markets - EA Forum". forum.effectivealtruism.org. Archived from the original on 2023-08-30. Retrieved 2023-08-30.
- ^ Frongillo, Rafael; Papireddygari, Maneesha; Waggoner, Bo (2023). "An Axiomatic Characterization of CFMMs and Equivalence to Prediction Markets". arXiv:2302.00196 [cs.GT].
External links
- Manifold website
- Manifold GitHub organization (source code)