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A heated debate was created from a "viewpoint" article in the journal ''Ecological Complexity'' which Soon coauthored with Dyck, Baydack, [[David Legates|Legates]], [[Sallie Baliunas|Baliunas]], [[Timothy F. Ball|Ball]] and Hancock. Several of these authors are known for their [[List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming|skeptical views on global warming]]. In this paper they argue that [[Global warming|climate change]] may not be the ultimate control factor on [[polar bear]] survival. Specifically they argue that there has been no spring warming in the [[Hudson Bay]] area over a 70 year period. As an alternative they list several other factors which may have a negative effect on the polar bear populations, such as increased human-bear interaction.<ref name=dyck2007>{{cite journal |author=Dyck M.G. Soon W. Baydack R.K. Legates D.R. Baliunas S. Ball T.F. Hancock L.O. |title=Polar bears of western Hudson Bay and climate change: Are warming air temperatures the "ultimate" survival control factor? |journal=Ecological Complexity |volume=4 |pages=73–84 |year=2007 |doi=10.1016/j.ecocom.2007.03.002}}</ref> The Governor of Alaska, [[Sarah Palin]], cited this paper in a bid to get polar bears delisted from the [[Endangered species|U.S. Endangered Species Act]].<ref name=anchorage2008>{{Cite news | last=Kizzia | first=Tom | title=Funding and review of Palin-touted study criticized | newspaper=[[Anchorage Daily News]] | year=2008 | date=2008-01-27 <!---|url = http://www.adn.com--->}}</ref> Some polar bear scientists and environmental scientists, including [[Ian Stirling]] and Andrew Derocher, responded with a viewpoint article in the same journal. They argued that the alternative explanations for polar bear decline are "Largely unsupported by the data available."<ref name=stirling2008/> Andrew Derocher was reported by [[Anchorage Daily News]] as saying "I would venture to guess that, beyond Markus Dyck, none of them had ever seen a polar bear"<ref name=anchorage2008/>
A heated debate was created from a "viewpoint" article in the journal ''Ecological Complexity'' which Soon coauthored with Dyck, Baydack, [[David Legates|Legates]], [[Sallie Baliunas|Baliunas]], [[Timothy F. Ball|Ball]] and Hancock. Several of these authors are known for their [[List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming|skeptical views on global warming]]. In this paper they argue that [[Global warming|climate change]] may not be the ultimate control factor on [[polar bear]] survival. Specifically they argue that there has been no spring warming in the [[Hudson Bay]] area over a 70 year period. As an alternative they list several other factors which may have a negative effect on the polar bear populations, such as increased human-bear interaction.<ref name=dyck2007>{{cite journal |author=Dyck M.G. Soon W. Baydack R.K. Legates D.R. Baliunas S. Ball T.F. Hancock L.O. |title=Polar bears of western Hudson Bay and climate change: Are warming air temperatures the "ultimate" survival control factor? |journal=Ecological Complexity |volume=4 |pages=73–84 |year=2007 |doi=10.1016/j.ecocom.2007.03.002}}</ref> The Governor of Alaska, [[Sarah Palin]], cited this paper in a bid to get polar bears delisted from the [[Endangered species|U.S. Endangered Species Act]].<ref name=anchorage2008>{{Cite news | last=Kizzia | first=Tom | title=Funding and review of Palin-touted study criticized | newspaper=[[Anchorage Daily News]] | year=2008 | date=2008-01-27 <!---|url = http://www.adn.com--->}}</ref> Some polar bear scientists and environmental scientists, including [[Ian Stirling]] and Andrew Derocher, responded with a viewpoint article in the same journal. They argued that the alternative explanations for polar bear decline are "Largely unsupported by the data available."<ref name=stirling2008/> Andrew Derocher was reported by [[Anchorage Daily News]] as saying "I would venture to guess that, beyond Markus Dyck, none of them had ever seen a polar bear"<ref name=anchorage2008/>

Another paper in which Soon was coauthor cited faulty forecasting methodology in predictions of polar bear decline, saying that one major study had "extrapolated nearly 100 years into the future on the basis of only five years of data – and data for these years were of doubtful validity."<ref>http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6317/</ref>


==See also==
==See also==

Revision as of 20:44, 14 April 2010

Willie Soon
Born1966
Malaysia
Scientific career
FieldsAstrophysicist
InstitutionsHarvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics

Willie Wei-Hock Soon (born 1966) is an astrophysicist at the Solar and Stellar Physics Division of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. Soon has testified before Congress on the issue of climate change[1] He is known for his views that most global warming is caused by solar variation.

In addition to writing a range of technical papers on solar and stellar behavior, the physics of climate change, and an astronomy textbook for students, Soon co-authored The Maunder Minimum and the Variable Sun–Earth Connection with Steven H. Yaskell (2004). The book treats historical and proxy records of climate change coinciding with the Maunder Minimum (c 1645-1715).[2] In 2004 Soon was awarded the "Petr Beckmann Award for courage and achievement in the defense of scientific truth" by Doctors for Disaster Preparedness.

He is chief science adviser to the Science and Public Policy Institute, a think tank which disputes the belief that global warming is anthropogenic.[3] Soon is also associated with the George C. Marshall Institute, where he co-authored Lessons and Limits of Climate History: Was 20th Century Climate Unusual?[4] with Sallie Baliunas. The pair have also written for the Fraser Institute of Canada regarding Sun-climate connections.

Willie Soon's publications have caused controversy[5] with editors resigning from a journal which published one of his papers.[6][7] Soon and Baliunas have also been criticised because their research budget was funded in part by the American Petroleum Institute,[5][8][9][10] a trade association.[11] Another paper coauthored by Soon started a heated debate with polar bear experts.[12]

Controversy over the 2003 Climate Research paper

Main article: Soon and Baliunas controversy

In 2003 Willie Soon was first author on a review paper in the journal Climate Research, with Sallie Baliunas as co-author. This paper concluded that "the 20th century is probably not the warmest nor a uniquely extreme climatic period of the last millennium."[4]

Shortly thereafter, 13 scientists published a rebuttal to the paper.[13] There were three main objections: Soon and Baliunas used data reflective of changes in moisture, rather than temperature; they failed to distinguish between regional and hemispheric temperature anomalies; and they reconstructed past temperatures from proxy evidence not capable of resolving decadal trends. More recently, Osborn and Briffa repeated the Soon and Baliunas study but restricted themselves to records that were validated as temperature proxies, and came to a different result.[13][14] However, the Osborn/Briffa study itself was criticized for methodological flaws.[15]

After publication, Hans Von Storch, Clare Goodess, and 2 more members of the journal's editorial board, resigned in protest against what they felt was a failure of the peer review process on the part of the journal.[6][7] Otto Kinne, managing director of the journal's parent company, stated that "CR [Climate Research] should have been more careful and insisted on solid evidence and cautious formulations before publication" and that "CR should have requested appropriate revisions of the manuscript prior to publication."[16]

Five percent of the Soon-Baliunas study's budget ($53,000) was funded by the American Petroleum Institute.[5] At the time Soon and Baliunas were also paid consultants of the Marshall Institute.[5]

Polar bear debate

A heated debate was created from a "viewpoint" article in the journal Ecological Complexity which Soon coauthored with Dyck, Baydack, Legates, Baliunas, Ball and Hancock. Several of these authors are known for their skeptical views on global warming. In this paper they argue that climate change may not be the ultimate control factor on polar bear survival. Specifically they argue that there has been no spring warming in the Hudson Bay area over a 70 year period. As an alternative they list several other factors which may have a negative effect on the polar bear populations, such as increased human-bear interaction.[17] The Governor of Alaska, Sarah Palin, cited this paper in a bid to get polar bears delisted from the U.S. Endangered Species Act.[18] Some polar bear scientists and environmental scientists, including Ian Stirling and Andrew Derocher, responded with a viewpoint article in the same journal. They argued that the alternative explanations for polar bear decline are "Largely unsupported by the data available."[12] Andrew Derocher was reported by Anchorage Daily News as saying "I would venture to guess that, beyond Markus Dyck, none of them had ever seen a polar bear"[18]

Another paper in which Soon was coauthor cited faulty forecasting methodology in predictions of polar bear decline, saying that one major study had "extrapolated nearly 100 years into the future on the basis of only five years of data – and data for these years were of doubtful validity."[19]

See also

References

  1. ^ http://epw.senate.gov/108th/Soon_072903.htm
  2. ^ "Sunny Occupation". All Malaysia. 2005-04-18. Retrieved 2009-05-30.
  3. ^ "Global Warming Science and Public Policy". Science and Public Policy Institute. Retrieved 2009-05-29.
  4. ^ a b >Soon, Willie (2003). "Lessons and Limits of Climate History: Was 20th Century Climate Unusual?" (PDF). Marshall Institute. Retrieved 2009-05-30. Cite error: The named reference "soon2003" was defined multiple times with different content (see the help page).
  5. ^ a b c d Sanchez, Irene (2005-11-13). "Warming study draws fire". The Harvard Crimson. Retrieved 2009-05-30.
  6. ^ a b Monastersky, Richard (2003). "Storm Brews Over Global Warming". The Chronicle of Higher Education. Retrieved 2010-04-14. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |month= ignored (help)
  7. ^ a b Goodess, Clare (2003). "Stormy Times for Climate Research". SGR Newsletter #28. Retrieved 2007-04-17. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |month= ignored (help)
  8. ^ Mooney, Chris (2004-04-13). "Earth Last". The American Prospect. Retrieved 2009-05-29.
  9. ^ "20th Century Climate Not so Hot". Harvard–Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. 2003-03-31. Retrieved 2009-05-29.
  10. ^ Andrew Revkin (2003-08-05). "Politics Reasserts Itself in the Debate Over Climate Change and Its Hazards". New York Times. Retrieved 2010-04-14.
  11. ^ Revkin, Andrew (2005-06-08). "Bush Aide Softened Greenhouse Gas Links to Global Warming". New York Times. Retrieved 2009-05-29.
  12. ^ a b Stirling I. Derocher A.E. Gough W.A. Rode K. (2008). "Response to Dyck et al. (2007) on polar bears and climate change in western Hudson Bay". Ecological Complexity. 5: 193–201. doi:10.1016/j.ecocom.2008.01.004.
  13. ^ a b "Leading Climate Scientists Reaffirm View that Late 20th Century Warming Was Unusual and Resulted From Human Activity" (Press release). American Geophysical Union. July 7, 2003. AGU Release No. 03-19.
  14. ^ Osborn T.J., Briffa K.R. (2006). "The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years". Science. 311: 841–844. doi:10.1126/science.1120514.
  15. ^ http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/316/5833/1844a
  16. ^ Kinne, Otto (2003). "Climate Research: an article unleashed worldwide storms" (PDF). Climate Research. 24: 197–198. doi:10.3354/cr024197. Retrieved 2007-04-17.
  17. ^ Dyck M.G. Soon W. Baydack R.K. Legates D.R. Baliunas S. Ball T.F. Hancock L.O. (2007). "Polar bears of western Hudson Bay and climate change: Are warming air temperatures the "ultimate" survival control factor?". Ecological Complexity. 4: 73–84. doi:10.1016/j.ecocom.2007.03.002.
  18. ^ a b Kizzia, Tom (2008-01-27). "Funding and review of Palin-touted study criticized". Anchorage Daily News.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: date and year (link)
  19. ^ http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6317/

External links

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