2024 United Kingdom general election

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Next United Kingdom general election
United Kingdom
← 2019 No later than 2 May 2024
All 650 seats[a] in the House of Commons.
326 seats needed for a majority
Party Leader Current seats
Conservative Boris Johnson
Labour Keir Starmer
SNP Nicola Sturgeon
Liberal Democrats TBD
DUP Arlene Foster
Sinn Féin Mary Lou McDonald
Plaid Cymru Adam Price
SDLP Colum Eastwood
Green Jonathan Bartley
& Siân Berry
Alliance Naomi Long
Independent n/a
Speaker Lindsay Hoyle
Incumbent Prime Minister
Boris Johnson
Conservative

The next United Kingdom general election is scheduled to be held on Thursday 2 May 2024, in line with the Fixed-term Parliaments Act. It will elect the 59th Parliament of the United Kingdom since the 1801 co-option of the Parliaments of Great Britain and Ireland. This will be the first general election after the United Kingdom has left the European Union on 31 January 2020.

Background

The result at the last general election and the current situation in the House of Commons is given below:

Affiliation Members
Elected in 2019[1] Current[2] Change
Conservative 365 346 Decrease 19
Labour[b] 202 205 Increase 3
SNP 48 43 Decrease 5
Liberal Democrats 11 15 Increase 4
DUP 8 7 Decrease 1
Sinn Féin 7 7 Steady
Plaid Cymru 4 3 Decrease 1
SDLP 2 2 Steady
Alba N/A[c] 2[d] Increase 2
Green 1 1 Steady
Alliance 1 1 Steady
Workers Party N/A[c] 1 Increase 1
Reform UK 0 1 Increase 1
Speaker 1 1 Steady
Independent 0 15[e] Increase 15
Total 650 650 Steady
Voting total[f] 639 638 Decrease 1[g]
Vacant 0 0 Steady
Government majority 87 44[7] Decrease 43
This table:

For full details of changes during the current Parliament, see By-elections and Defections, suspensions and resignations.

Electoral system

See also: Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011

Provisionally, the next general election will be conducted using the same electoral system as the 2019 election (first-past-the-post).

The Conservative Party, which won a majority at the 2019 general election, included pledges in its manifesto to remove the fifteen-year limit on voting for British citizens living abroad, and to introduce a voter identification requirement[8] in Great Britain.

Boundary review

In March 2020, Cabinet Office MP Chloe Smith confirmed that the 2021 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies would commence based on retaining 650 seats.[9][10] The 2021 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies will begin in 2021 with the existing relevant legislation amended by the Parliamentary Constituencies Bill 2019-21.

The postponed Sixth Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies proposed reducing the number of constituencies from 650 to 600. In April 2016, each of the four parliamentary Boundary Commissions of the United Kingdom recommenced their review process.[11][12][13] A projection by psephologists Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher of how the 2017 votes would have translated to seats under the new boundaries suggested the changes would be beneficial to the Conservative Party and detrimental to Labour.[14][15]

Boundary changes cannot be implemented until they are approved by both Houses of Parliament. No changes were submitted by the government during the 2017–2019 Parliament.[16] The majority Conservative government manifesto states that this will be implemented before the next general election.

Date of the election

The Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 (FTPA) introduced fixed-term parliaments to the United Kingdom, with elections scheduled on the first Thursday in May of the fifth year after the previous general election, unless the previous general election took place between 1 January and the first Thursday in May, in which case the election takes place on the first Thursday in May of the fourth year after the previous general election.[17]

Removing the power of the monarch, on advice of the prime minister, to dissolve parliament before its five-year maximum length,[17] the act permits early dissolution if the House of Commons votes by a two-thirds supermajority. Parliament is also dissolved if a government loses a vote of no confidence by a simple majority and a new government is not formed within 14 days.[18] Alternatively, a bill requiring just a simple majority in both Houses could be introduced to establish in law an earlier date for the election, which is how the date of the previous general election was set in 2019.[19]

Thus, the next general election is due to take place on Thursday 2 May 2024, unless it is triggered earlier.[20] Under the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013 parliament would be dissolved 25 working days before this date on Monday 26 March 2024.[21] Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, the Prime Minister may schedule polling day up to two months after 2 May 2024, subject to approval by both Houses.

Proposed repeal of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act

At the 2019 general election, where the Conservatives won a majority of 80 seats, the manifesto of the party contained a commitment to repeal the Fixed-term Parliaments Act due to "paralysis at a time when the country has needed decisive action".[22] The pledge was confirmed in the first Queen's Speech following the election.[23] However, as the FTPA repealed the previous legislation in relation to limited term parliaments, further legislation would be required to set out how long parliaments should last.[24]

Opinion polling

Main article: Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election

Notes

  1. ^ Current law and the current boundary review would reduce this to 600 seats. The Parliamentary Constituencies Bill 2019-21 would prevent this and is currently progressing through Parliament.
  2. ^ Includes 24 MPs sponsored by the Co-operative Party, who are designated Labour and Co-operative.[3]
  3. ^ a b At the time of the 2019 election this party did not exist.
  4. ^ Both of the Alba Party's MPs, Kenny MacAskill and Neale Hanvey, were elected for the Scottish National Party (SNP) before leaving to join Alba in 2021.[4]
  5. ^ Eight were elected as Conservative MPs at the 2019 general election, including Andrew Bridgen, who defected to Reclaim in May 2023 but left the party in December 2023 and now sits as an independent. The remaining 9 independent MPs all come from the opposition benches.
  6. ^ The seven members of Sinn Féin abstain, i.e. they do not take their seats in the House of Commons;[5] the Speaker and deputy speakers (currently three Conservative and one Labour) have only a tie-breaking vote constrained by conventions.[6]
  7. ^ Deputy speaker Eleanor Laing (Con, Chair of Ways and Means) was on an extended leave of absence, and Roger Gale (Con) has served as an additional acting Deputy Speaker since.

References

  1. ^ "Election 2019: Results". BBC News. Retrieved 10 December 2022.
  2. ^ "State of the parties". UK Parliament. Retrieved 5 April 2024.
  3. ^ "About: Members of Parliament". Co-operative Party. Retrieved 10 May 2024.
  4. ^ Webster, Laura (27 March 2021). "MP Kenny MacAskill quits SNP to join Alex Salmond's Alba Party". The National. Retrieved 27 March 2021.
  5. ^ Kelly, Conor (19 August 2019). "Understanding Sinn Féin's Abstention from the UK Parliament". E-International Relations. Retrieved 16 December 2019.
  6. ^ Boothroyd, David. "House of Commons: Tied Divisions". United Kingdom Election Results. Retrieved 25 July 2018.[dead link]
  7. ^ Zodgekar, Ketaki; Baker, Finn (8 May 2024). "What is the government's current working majority?". Institute for Government. Retrieved 10 May 2024.
  8. ^ "Our Plan - Conservative Manifesto 2019". Conservative Party. Retrieved 17 December 2019.
  9. ^ "Correspondence with Chloe Smith MP" (PDF). parliament.uk.
  10. ^ Proctor, Kate (26 March 2020). "MPs no longer to get automatic vote on constituency boundary plans". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077.
  11. ^ "Boundary review launched". Boundary Commission for England. 24 February 2016. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
  12. ^ "2018 Review of Westminster Parliamentary constituencies". Boundary Commission for Scotland. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
  13. ^ "2018 Review". Boundary Commission for Wales. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
  14. ^ "Ian Jones on Twitter". Twitter. 10 September 2018. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
  15. ^ "New parliamentary map would have given Tories a majority of 16 at last election". ITV News. 10 September 2018. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
  16. ^ Johnston, Ron; Pattie, Charles; Rossiter, David (30 April 2019). "Boundaries in limbo: why the government cannot decide how many MPs there should be". LSE British Politics and Policy. London School of Economics. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
  17. ^ a b Horne, Alexander; Kelly, Richard (19 November 2014). "Alexander Horne and Richard Kelly: Prerogative powers and the Fixed-term Parliaments Act". ukconstitutionallaw.org. UK Constitutional Law Association. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
  18. ^ "House of Commons Debate 5 July 2010 c 23". parliament.uk. UK Parliament. 5 July 2010. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
  19. ^ "MPs back December election". 29 October 2019. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
  20. ^ Tuft, Ben (8 May 2015). "When will the next UK General Election be held?". The Independent. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
  21. ^ "General election timetable 2015". parliament.uk. UK Parliament. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
  22. ^ Kettle, Martin (12 December 2019). "If the exit poll is right, this election will transform British politics". The Guardian. Retrieved 13 December 2019.
  23. ^ "Full transcript: The Queen's Speech". The Spectator. 19 December 2019. Retrieved 19 December 2019.
  24. ^ Norton, Philip (8 October 2016). "Repealing the Fixed-term Parliaments Act?". The Norton View. Retrieved 18 December 2019.
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