2007 Atlantic hurricane season
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Template:Ongoing weather Template:Infobox hurricane season active The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season is an ongoing event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation. It officially started June 1, 2007, and will last until November 30, 2007, dates that conventionally delimit the period when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin during the year. However, the formation of Subtropical Storm Andrea on May 9, 2007 marked an earlier beginning to the season. This was the second occasion in five years that a storm formed before the official season start date; the other occurrence was Tropical Storm Ana in April 2003.
Seasonal forecasts
Forecasts of hurricane activity are issued before each hurricane season by noted hurricane experts Philip J. Klotzbach, Dr. William M. Gray, and their associates at Colorado State University; and separately by NOAA forecasters.
Klotzbach's team (formerly led by Dr. Gray) defined the average number of storms per season (1950 to 2000) as 9.6 tropical storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes (storms exceeding Category 3 strength in the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale). A normal season, as defined by NOAA, has 6 to 14 named storms, with 4 to 8 of those reaching hurricane strength, and 1 to 3 major hurricanes.[1][2]
| Source | Date | Named storms |
Hurricanes | Major hurricanes |
| CSU | Average (1950–2000)[1] | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.3 |
| NOAA | Average (1950–2005)[2] | 11.0 | 6.2 | 2.7 |
| Record high activity | 28 | 15 | 8 | |
| Record low activity | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– | ||||
| CSU | 8 December 2006 | 14 | 7 | 3 |
| CSU | April 3, 2007 | 17 | 9 | 5 |
| NOAA | May 22, 2007 | 13–17 | 7–10 | 3–5 |
| CSU | May 31, 2007 | 17 | 9 | 5 |
| –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– | ||||
| Actual activity | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
Pre-season forecasts
On December 8, 2006, Klotzbach's team issued its first extended-range forecast for the 2007 season, predicting above-average activity (14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 of Category 3 or higher).[1]
The team predicted a high potential for at least one major hurricane to directly impact the United States: the forecast indicated a 64% chance of at least one major hurricane striking the U.S. mainland, which included a 40% chance of at least one major hurricane strike on the East Coast of the United States including the Florida peninsula, and a 40% chance of at least one major hurricane strike on the Gulf Coast of the United States from the Florida Panhandle westward. The potential for major hurricane activity in the Caribbean was forecast to be above average, and the team predicted El Niño to dissipate by the active portion of the season.[1]
On April 3 a new forecast was issued, calling for a very active hurricane season of 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 5 intense hurricanes.[3]
The increase in the forecast was attributed to the rapid dissipation of El Niño conditions. The team also forecast a neutral or weak-to-moderate La Niña for the hurricane season, and noted that sea-surface temperatures were much higher than long-term averages.[4] The potential for at least one major hurricane impacting the U.S. was increased to 74%, with the U.S. East Coast potential increased to 50% and from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas increased to 49%.[4] However, Klotzbach noted that while they were calling for an active season, it was not forecast to be "as active as the 2004 and 2005 seasons".[3]
On May 22, 2007, NOAA released their pre-season forecast for the 2007 season. They predicted 13 to 17 named storms, with 7 to 10 becoming hurricanes, and 3 to 5 becoming major hurricanes.[5]
One day before the official start of the season, the CSU team issued their final set of pre-season forecasts, making no change to the numbers from their April forecast.[6]
Storms
Subtropical Storm Andrea
 | |
| Duration | Unknown – Unknown |
|---|---|
| Peak intensity | Winds not specified; |
On May 9, a previously extratropical cyclone organized into Subtropical Storm Andrea while located about 140 miles (225 km) southeast of Savannah, Georgia. Tropical storm watches were immediately issued for parts of coastal Georgia and Florida, though were later dropped. It is the first named storm to form in May since Arlene in the 1981 Atlantic hurricane season,[7] and the first pre-season storm since Ana in April 2003.[8] Later, the organization of the system deteriorated with a significant decrease in convection as it moved over cooler waters,[9] and on May 10 it weakened to a subtropical depression and NHC issued its final advisory on Andrea at 11 PM EST, May 10. However, on the morning of May 11 convection flared up over the center, indicating that the cyclone might be acquiring tropical character once again.[10] However, it did not.
The storm produced rough surf along the coastline from Florida to North Carolina, causing beach erosion and some damage.[11] One surfer drowned in Florida from the rough surf.[12] A total of 5 perished during Andrea's initial extratropical phase.[13] High winds from Andrea have been reported as fueling severe wildfires in northern Florida and southern Georgia.[14] Andrea has been blamed for providing stiff winds that act like a "chimney", fueling the blaze to firestorm levels beyond the control of firefighting officials. [14] Strong winds from the storm spread smoke from local brush fires through the Tampa Bay area to Miami.[15][16]
Tropical Storm Barry
On June 1, the first day of the official start of the season, a system in the Gulf of Mexico organized into Tropical Storm Barry, and warnings were immediately issued.
Current storm information
As of 8 p.m. EDT June 1 (0000 UTC) June 2, Tropical Storm Barry is located about 320 mi (520 km) southwest of Tampa, Florida or about 235 mi (375 km) W of Key West, Florida. Maximum sustained winds are 50 mph (80 km/h), with gusts of up to 60 mph. The minimum central pressure is 997 mbar (29.44 inHg), and is moving northward at 12 mph (19 km/h).
Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the centre. Rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches (75 to 150 mm) are expected over the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula into south-eastern Georgia, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches (255 mm).
Warnings and watches
| Hurricane warning levels |
|---|
| Hurricane warning |
|
Hurricane conditions expected within 36 hours. |
| Hurricane watch |
|
Hurricane conditions possible within 48 hours. |
| Tropical storm warning |
| Tropical storm conditions expected within 36 hours. |
| Tropical storm watch |
| Tropical storm conditions possible within 48 hours. |
| Storm surge warning |
| Life-threatening storm surge possible within 36 hours. |
| Storm surge watch |
| Life-threatening storm surge possible within 48 hours. |
| Extreme wind warning |
| Winds reaching Category 3 status or higher likely (issued two hours or less before onset of extreme winds). |
As of 5 p.m. EDT June 1 (2100 UTC), the following warnings and watches were in effect:
- A tropical storm warning is in effect for:
- The west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach north to Keaton Beach.
- A tropical storm watch is in effect for:
- The west coast of Florida north of Keaton Beach to Saint Marks.
- See the NHC's latest public advisory on Tropical Storm Barry.
Timeline of recent events
June
- June 1
-
- The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins.
- 5 p.m. EDT (2100 UTC) - Tropical Storm Barry forms in the Gulf of Mexico.
Storm names
The following names will be used for named storms that form in the Atlantic basin in 2007. Names to be retired, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2008. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2013 season. The name Andrea was used for the first time in the 2007 season. The list is the same as the 2001 list except for Andrea, Ingrid, and Melissa, which replaced Allison, Iris, and Michelle, respectively. Names that have not been assigned are marked in gray.
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See also
- List of notable Atlantic hurricanes
- List of Atlantic hurricane seasons
- 2007 Pacific hurricane season
- 2007 Pacific typhoon season
- 2007 North Indian Ocean cyclone season
- 2006-07 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season
- 2007-08 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season
- 2006-07 Australian region cyclone season
- 2007-08 Australian region cyclone season
- 2006-07 South Pacific cyclone season
- 2007-08 South Pacific cyclone season
External links
References
- ^ a b c d Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray (2006-12-08). "Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2007". Colorado State University. Retrieved 2006-12-08.
{{cite web}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ a b Climate Prediction Center (2006-08-08). "BACKGROUND INFORMATION: THE NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved 2006-12-08.
{{cite web}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ a b "Colorado State forecast team calls for very active 2007 hurricane season". Colorado State University. 2007-04-03. Retrieved 2007-04-03.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ a b Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray (2007-04-03). "Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2007". Colorado State University. Retrieved 2007-04-03.
{{cite web}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ NOAA (2007-05-22). "NOAA Predicts Above Normal 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved 2007-05-22.
{{cite web}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray (2007-05-31). "Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2007". Colorado State University. Retrieved 2007-05-31.
{{cite web}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ http://www.hurricanecity.com/offseason.htm
- ^ http://www.hurricanecity.com/offseason.htm
- ^ Knabb (2007). "Subtropical Storm Andrea Discussion Two". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-05-09.
- ^ National Hurricane Center. May 11 1800 UTC Tropical Weather Discussion. Retrieved on 2007-05-11.
- ^ Brown (2007). "May 9 Special Tropical Disturbance Statement". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-05-09.
- ^ Tanya Caldwell (2007). "Holly Hill surfer drowns after taking on 'gigantic wave' in New Smyrna Beach - Orlando Sentinel - Volusia County News". Orlando Sentinel. Retrieved 2007-05-10.
- ^ National Hurricane Center. June 1 Tropical Weather Outlook. Retrieved on 2007-06-01.
- ^ a b Kevin Spear and Jim Stratton (2007-05-12). "'Fire of a lifetime' hits North Florida". Orlando Sentinel. Retrieved 2007-05-13.
- ^ Staff Writer (2007). "Subtropical storm Andrea is swirling off the north Florida coastline". Bradenton Herald. Retrieved 2007-05-09.
- ^ CNN Staff Writer (2007). "Atlantic's first named storm whips up wildfires". CNN. Retrieved 2007-05-10.
{{cite web}}:|author=has generic name (help)
Tropical cyclones of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season | ||
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