User:LebIntellect/sandbox

2042 Ontario general election
← 47th Parliament of Ontario 48th Parliament of Ontario →
124 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario; 63 seats needed for a majority
	Opinion polls
Turnout	54.60% (2.14pp)
	Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead by the result in each riding. Riding names are listed at the bottom.
Premier before election; Ayden Layng; Liberal	Premier after election ; Matthew Sawaya; New Democratic

The 2042 Ontario general election was held on June 5, 2042, to elect the 124 members of the 48th Parliament of Ontario. In a massive upset, the Ontario New Democratic Party, led by Matthew Sawaya, won 63 of the 124 seats in the legislature, barely securing a majority government. The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario, led by Ragy Missak, formed the Official Opposition. The Ontario Liberal Party, led by incumbent Premier Ayden Layng, lost official party status, matching their records in 2018. The Green Party of Ontario, long shut-out of the Legislature, failed to gain a seat.

Background

The NDP was not expected to form government. In fact, they had been kicked out of office four years prior in 2038 after then-Premier Charlie Angus unexpectedly died in office, leaving them without a leader to contest the election, and leading to a resurgence of the Ontario Liberals who had been in the political wilderness since their devastating loss in 2018.

The 2026 election saw former Premier Marit Stiles win a majority government, marking the second time in the province’s history that a New Democrat is elected as premier. They remained in government until 2038, when New Democrats lost the minority government supported by the rump caucus of the Liberal Party. The Liberals withdrew their support of the government in a non-confidence motion in March 2038, catching the leaderless NDP off-guard. Opposition and Liberal leader Ayden Layng quickly gained prominence and rose to succeed Angus as Premier, boosted by a weak PC party which was squabbled with internal issues and mismanagement since the loss of the 2026 election.

In 2038, Layng managed to win the most seats and was supported at different times by both of the other parties. Although the PCs initially formed the Official Opposition, a series of caucus bootings and resignations led to numerous by-elections, all won by the NDP, making them the Opposition for the last two years of the term. During that time, their new leader, Matthew Sawaya (who left law and replaced Stiles in Davenport upon her resignation) attracted widespread attention in his criticism of the Layng government.

The Liberal government proved extremely unpopular in its final two years. In the months leading up to the election, it was clear that Layng would not be Premier for the following term, and the Progressive Conservatives, led by longtime-MPP and former MP Ragy Missak, were expected to win. However, the New Democrats surged in the final two weeks of the campaign and garnered support from Ayden Layng himself, citing a danger in electing Conservatives.

On election night, all efforts and successes in rebuilding the Ontario Liberal Party were effectively thrown away as they lost party status. Layng lost his own seat to the NDP. The NDP won its fifth election and a one-seat majority government in what was dubbed the “Orange Justice,” referring to the fact that the New Democrats got “revenge” for being kicked out of government in an unconventional way. The Conservatives formed the Opposition. Sawaya is set to take office on July 12, 2042.