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Background

Afghanistan is prone to wide range of natural disasters. The United Nations (UN) estimated that each year, 250,000 Afghans are affected. Between 1980 and 2015, Afghanistan had the second highest number of fatalities caused by natural disasters globally. During this period there were 15 major avalanches in the country.

Major avalanches occur in Afghanistan every few years and the World Bank estimated that between 2000 to 2015, over 153,000 people were affected by avalanches in Afghanistan. Additionally, over 2 million people, over 10,000km of roads and approximately $4 billion worth of assets remain exposed to them.

In 2015, over 280,000 Afghans were affected by earthquakes, floods, avalanches and landslides, as well as heavy snowfall. Heavy snowfall caused the avalanches which occurred in February 2015. Landslides and flooding followed as the snow melted, resulting in fatalities, destruction of homes and roads, isolation of villages and increased difficulty for the government, UN and NGOs to provide assistance to those in need, especially in remote regions. This included snow blocking the Salang Pass, an important route between the capital Kabul and provinces in the north.

The provinces most affected were Laghman, Nangarhar, Panjsher, Badakhshan and Bamyan. The avalanches killed 254 people, injured 72 and left 6560 homeless of the 33,000+ people impacted and requiring immediate assistance when you take account of the secondary effects according to EM-DAT.

The avalanches happened shortly after the transfer of responsibility for security from the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), led by NATO, to the Afghan National Defence and Security Forces at the end of 2014. This put an unexpected burden on the new Government although the ongoing NATO and NGO presence meant that international support was already on the ground to assist and meant that the Afghan Government did not need to make an additional appeal for help.

Geographical Impact

Avalanches are a common hydro-meteorological hazard affecting many areas of Afghanistan. 9 of the 34 Provinces are classed as high avalanche risk (including Panjshir, Badakhshan, Bamyan) and 14 at medium risk. The avalanches in February 2015 were the worst to affect Afghanistan in over 30 years. Following an unusually dry, mild winter an unprecedented amount of snow fell over 48 hours, 6 feet in places, that blocked roads connecting 20 valleys.

In Afghanistan's mountain ranges around 80% of annual precipitation falls as snow. The region affected was at the juncture between the Hindu Kush and Pamir mountains where the topography and climate undoubtedly contributed to the disaster. The region’s characteristics include high-angled slopes, 7000m peaks, deep gorges, and steep sided valleys, major snowstorms and avalanches are commonplace. The steep slopes facilitate the accumulation of snow, several active fault lines can trigger seismic activity dislodging snow slabs, and variations in temperature at the rock/ice interface cause the ice to melt improving the glide of the snow. These factors increase the probability of avalanche especially when coupled with unusually heavy snowfall. Reports from the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies have suggested the winter season is getting longer, previously ending in January it now extends into March. Rising temperatures due to climate change might reduce the risk of avalanche in lower regions, but higher areas are likely to be at greater risk due to increased snowfall.

Flood plain cultivation, Wahkan Afganistan

Snowmelt in spring and summer sustains the agriculture that Afghanistan's rural populations rely on. Traditionally valley bottoms are reserved for farming and rural communities inhabit villages on slopes at risk of avalanche. Reports suggest 250,000 Afghans per year are displaced by natural disasters, but it seems communities in high risk avalanche areas are unaware of the severity of their situation, cannot afford to move or find alternative land to settle on. This leaves many in vulnerable circumstances.

Local and International Response

In 2015, Afghanistan received US$424.4 million in international aid. The value supporting avalanche relief efforts specifically lacks clarity, however one recipient organisation, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) was involved in relief efforts through the Afghan Red Crescent Society (ARCS).

Relief efforts were also supported by philanthropic donations such as that of the Bayat Foundation, who donated US$100,000.

ARCS, through IFRC and other partners, deployed 120 volunteers providing first-aid and assistance with relief distribution. They deployed 4 mobile health teams (1 to Panjsher) to provide medical assistance and 2 branch assessment teams to Panjsher for rapid assessment following clearance of blocked roads. ARCS also deployed 1 standby disaster response unit to Panjsher to assist if needed.

Mountain village, Salang Pass

ARCS ensured daily Emergency Operations Centre meetings to assess the ongoing situation and decide on actions to be taken by the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement Partners.

Afghan Ministry of Defence helicopters supported relief agencies, including ARCS, delivering blankets, medicines, food, and humanitarian assistance to remote areas. Additionally, 1000 soldiers from the Kabul Corps of the Afghan army were deployed to assist rescue efforts. Emergency relief goods were also sent from neighbouring countries such as Pakistan.

The Afghan Wireless Communication Company deployed mobile base stations and emergency networking equipment to provide communication between villages suffering from roadblocks following the avalanches.

The Afghan president, Ashraf Ghani, allegedly pledged to establish a relief fund for those affected, however the IFRC reported that no government appeal was launched because the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) stated that there were sufficient resources for intervention.

One reporter found locals feeling abandoned by the government's delayed response to the disaster, with reports of wounded victims being left in their homes up to 4 days following the avalanches before receiving medical care.

Immediate mortality and morbidity implications

Compared to 2010 and 2012, when avalanches killed 172 and 201 people respectively, in 2015 Afghanistan saw the country's worst recorded avalanche to date, killing at least 310 Afghans in just four days. It also ranks fourth in the list of avalanches worldwide by death toll. These avalanches began on 24 February. This natural disaster hit 23 provinces in Afghanistan. Most of them occurred in Panjshir province, where bulldozers and machinery have been clearing roads in the Panjshir valley to reach remote villages where hundreds of houses were destroyed by 40m high avalanches. All the deaths were attributed to snowfall or flooding. "We haven't seen this much snow or this many avalanches in 30 years," said Abdul Rahman Kabiri, the governor of the mountainous province. After days of blizzards, heavy snow swept down from the peaks of Afghanistan, sweeping through villages. The tally is 198 dead and over 100 others injured. This was followed by 12 more deaths from avalanches and landslides in the provinces of Nangrahar and Badghis on 7 March. In addition, Badakhshan, Bamyan, Day Kundi, Parwan, Takhar, Nuristan and Laghman were also hit hard. By the end of March, areas affected by heavy snow, avalanches or landslides totalled 69 districts in 17 provinces, with 2,701 houses damaged or destroyed and 2,983 families affected.

Also as a result of the heavy snowfall, avalanches and flooding in March 2015, and the subsequent series of floods, which significantly increased the risk of waterborne infectious diseases among affected populations, there were subsequent and ongoing outbreaks of symptoms of diseases such as typhoid fever in the Darwas Ishkashim and Shugan districts of Badakhshan province, with people rescued from the avalanche suffering mainly from clinical symptoms of colds, some of whom would have various stages of hypothermia and frostbite. This has led to challenges related to loss of life, damage to houses and potential illness.

The impact of avalanches in Afghanistan

Avalanches in Afghanistan can lead to short-term and long-term effects on physical and mental health, and can indirectly affect health and well-being as a result of the evacuation, social disruption, financial loss, lifestyle change, damage to health-care facilities, and changes to the wider political and socioeconomic context.

Short-term health implications

Physical health

As of 5 Apr 2015, an estimated 8,827 families had been affected by floods, rain, heavy snow, and avalanches in 137 districts in 24 provinces since 1 Feb. A total of 291 people were killed and 96 people were injured. 1,454 houses were destroyed and 7,119 houses were damaged. (OCHA, 5 Apr 2015) The casualties and house damage caused by avalanches have made thousands of people homeless in a short period, directly affecting the physical and mental health and life of natural residents.

Long-term health implications

mental health

Avalanche accidents may induce post-traumatic stress disorders, and some survivors presented significant psychological distress, affecting their quality of life. The most common symptoms were intrusive thoughts and feelings, tension, sadness, and anxiety. Sixteen years after an avalanche, a study found 16% of PTSD among survivors, illustrating the long-term persistence of these symptoms.

Other consequences

Effects on healthcare facilities

Avalanches are major natural hazards in snow-covered mountain areas, threatening people and infrastructure. So search and rescue and healthcare providers involved in avalanche rescue face logistical and medical challenges.

Risk perception and evacuation

The severity of past disaster experiences was strongly correlated with perceptions of disaster risk. Additional factors might influence risk perception, evacuation decisions, or both in settings of recurring disasters. Afghanistan experienced numerous snow avalanches resulting in the loss of life and assets in target communities. Since avalanche impact can be mitigated through the use of basic measures, FOCUS has implemented programs to reduce risks and attempt to circumvent the losses faced in 2012 and 2015.

Crop growth in the economic field

The larger the avalanche area is, the closer the sediment is to the village. In particular, 2003 had many avalanche depositional zones that occupied almost 6 % of the surface area of the entire basin. That year was locally noted as having heavy snowfall, and farmers benefited from more snowmelt in the spring, leading to higher-than-average crop yields in 2003.

References

Disaster information gathering and risk mapping

The key to effective disaster risk management is understanding and accessing hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk information, especially for Afghanistan, which is rebuilding after natural disasters and military conflicts.To strengthen resilience, investments in Afghanistan need to incorporate information on natural hazards into their planning, design and implementation. It is suggested that a separate unit of geoscientists and land use planners be formed with a specific responsibility to revisit natural hazard maps. In fragile states such as Afghanistan, it is critical to make use of the territorial knowledge and data provided by NATO's International Security Assistance Force (ISAF).

Policy

Afghanistan National Disaster Management Authority (ANDMA) is a nominal presence in terms of implementation and policy delivery. This is mainly because ANDMA's provincial branches are severely under-resourced and under-capable. In addition, ANDMA, as an institution, usually arrives after an avalanche has occurred. There is a need to revisit the national plan and to ensure that its contents are implemented. And develop practical and home-grown national disaster management plans that can address community-level disasters after identifying sources of information.

Afghanistan needs simple, sustainable and inexpensive avalanche solutions because of the technology, terrain and financial situation. Focus Humanitarian Assistance (FOCUS) works on a community basis to reduce avalanche mortality in vulnerable villages through simple, low-cost programmes such as manual weather stations, rules of thumb and basic avalanche awareness training at local level.

Infrastructure

Avalanche mitigation measures to protect infrastructure and settlements are often missing, while other avalanche warning systems were built privately at a cost of US$2.5 billion. Restorative short-term activities including the construction of mitigation structures, protection of national roads and the establishment of weather stations to assess changing weather patterns in a timely manner are required in affected communities. Avalanche risk can be reduced by retention structures such as concrete galleries over highways and early warning systems.

External sites

• EM-DAT The international disasters database
• Humanitarian Response Information
• ReliefWeb
• NATO and Afghanistan
• Preventionweb