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Hurricane Helene county-by-county death toll

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State County Deaths Refs
Florida Charlotte 1 [1]
Dixie 1 [1]
Hillsborough 1 [1]
Pinellas 12 [1]

Camp Fire

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Project consists of rewriting/reorganizing portions of the Camp Fire (2018) article, particularly the fire progression section.

Casualties

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The Camp Fire directly killed at least 85 people. The official death toll first rose over the course of several weeks, as search and recovery personnel discovered remains throughout Butte County, and then it fluctuated over time as victims passed away from injuries and forensic analysis determined the identities of the remains.

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Five more sets of remains were discovered on November 17, bringing the number of dead to 76. The number of missing reached 1,276.[2]

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On November 26, 2018, the death toll was raised to 88 after three sets of remains were each re-analyzed as those of two people. The number of missing people by this point was 203.[3]

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The death toll rose to 86 on December 11, 2018, after authorities reported the November 25 death of an 80-year-old man from burn injuries.[4]

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The official death toll dropped to 85 on February 8, 2019, after remains originally assessed as that of two people were identified as belonging to just one person. By this point, two people remained unaccounted for.[5]

The death toll rose again to 86 in August 2019 when a 72-year-old man who had suffered third-degree burns and severe lung damage in the fire eventually passed away in a care facility in Sacramento.[6] In the same month, one of the two remaining missing persons—a 47-year-old woman—was found alive in Oroville by a Butte County Sheriff's Office detective. She had known she was listed as missing but had avoided contact with authorities because she believed she had "unresolved legal issues".[7]

The death toll was adjusted for a final time to 85 in September 2019, when anthropologists determined that an unidentified fragment of bone had been warped in the fire and in fact was that of an already-identified victim.[8]

The last missing person, a 51-year old woman whose last known address was in Paradise, had reportedly been spotted at a motel in Yuba County in December 2018.[7] She remained, officially, a missing person as of March 2024.[9]

The Chico Enterprise-Record analyzed wrongful death claims against PG&E and identified an additional 50 people not included in the official death toll, but whose passing was linked to the fire by the doctors and lawyers retained to vet each wrongful death claim.[10][11]

Investigation

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Litigation

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Background

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  • NWS service assessment[12]: 1 
  • BAMS article[13]

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Paradise lies between 1,500 and 2,000 feet (460 and 610 m) in elevation, 25 miles (40 km) from the crest of the Sierra Nevada, in the range's western foothills.[13]: 169  The Los Angeles Times described the local geography underlaying the town as "a system of volcanic ledges bisected by a fan of deep ravines emptying into the Sacramento Valley", with a chaotic street system—containing almost 100 miles (160 km) of privately-owned roads—that maximized the amount of land that could be developed upon.[14]

The whole town got steamrolled. That's a rare event. If you look at the urban interface conflagrations, they usually assault on a city and peter out like in Oakland and in Bel Air, but this one hit the town mid-rib, flanked around it and then by contagion the whole town burned up.

— Dave Sapsis, Cal Fire fire behavior research specialist[15]

Trump's visit to the Camp and Woolsey Fire sites was his second ever trip to California since becoming president in January 2017.[2]

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The Camp Fire's rapid spread was enabled by climate and weather conditions combination of extraordinarily dry vegetation and strong katabatic winds. [needs citation]

Dry conditions

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The winter of 2016–2017 saw above-average precipitation across much of California, ending a six-year statewide drought. One of the effects of the wet winter was the second spring in a row with an above-average grass crop. That winter was followed by that of 2017–2018, which was both hotter and drier than average, allowing for 'fine fuels' such as grass to carry over from the previous year. A third consecutive above-average grass crop developed following a warm and wet March 2018. This was followed by the cessation of rain in late April, and a hot and dry summer in Northern California.[16]

Paradise received only 0.88 inches (2.2 cm) of rain between May 1 and mid-November, when it typically received more than seven inches (18 cm).[17] The U.S. Drought Monitor had logged Butte County in the "Abnormally Dry" category beginning in late June.[18]: 14–15  By November 8, Butte County's lower elevations had gone more than 200 days without receiving one-half inch (1.3 cm) of rain. The energy release component (ERC), a metric for the dryness and flammability of vegetation, was above average all summer. As summer turned into fall and significant rain had not materialized by early October, ERC levels were well above average, and on the day of the start of the Camp Fire, they were setting records for the date.[19] The National Fire Danger Rating System had four reporting stations in Butte County. On November 8, all of them reported fire danger ratings of "Very High" or "Extreme".[18]: 14–15 

Katabatic winds

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At the time of the fire's ignition, an upper-level atmospheric ridge (an elongated region of high pressure) was positioned off the coast of California. Its placement, allowing for northerly atmospheric flow, created an east–west pressure gradient. At the same time, a shortwave trough (a smaller-scale 'kink' of low pressure embedded in the flow) was moving over California, acting to intensify the pressure gradient. This created katabatic winds in many valleys in the western Sierra Nevada.[12]: 8–9  Such winds form when the cool, high pressure airmass in the Great Basin spills through the narrow canyons that cut through the Sierra as it moves towards the warmer, low pressure airmass closer to the coast.[20] The National Weather Service (NWS) described this as a "common synoptic pattern for strong winds and very dry conditions".[12]: 8–9 

A graphic posted on November 7 by NWS Sacramento about the red flag warning in Northern California

The NWS office in Sacramento issued a fire weather watch on November 5, which was upgraded to a red flag warning on November 6.[12]: 14  The warning was effective for the night of Wednesday, November 7, through the morning of Friday, September 9, and it called for relative humidity levels in the single digits and wind gusts of up to 55 miles per hour (89 km/h).[21][18]: 16  The meteorologist-in-charge at the Sacramento NWS office called it "a significant red-flag event and one of the stronger ones of the season". PG&E informed 70,000 customers, residents of Paradise among them, that the utility company was considering shutting off their power to lessen the fire risk from downed power lines. PG&E eventually decided that conditions did not warrant it. The planned outage would not have prevented the Camp Fire's ignition, as the company did not de-energize transmission lines.[21]

The downslope winds that formed on November 8 were particularly intense through Jarbo Gap,[12]: 8–9  an area where air squeezes through the Feather River Canyon from the northeast. These "Jarbo Gap winds" commonly developed in the autumn, and in the fifteen years prior to the Camp Fire, records showed 35 days with wind gusts higher than 100 miles per hour (160 km/h).[14]

Gusty winds at Jarbo Gap began at about 7:00 p.m. on November 7 and increased over the next two hours.[18]: 16  By 4:00 a.m. on November 8, a remote automated weather station east of Paradise was recording sustained 32-mile-per-hour (51 km/h) winds and 52-mile-per-hour (84 km/h) gusts.[21] By the time of the Camp Fire's ignition, the Jarbo Gap weather station was recording 18-mile-per-hour (29 km/h) winds out of the northeast with 40-mile-per-hour (64 km/h) gusts. The relative humidity level was 23 percent.[18]: 16 

Progression

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  • NIST timeline report[18]
  • NIST NETTRA report[22]
  • Butte Co report[23]
  • LAT aircraft article[24]
  • WSJ "This Old Metal Hook Could Determine Whether PG&E Committed a Crime"[25]
  • NYT "California Wildfires: How PG&E Ignored Risks in Favor of Profits"[26]
  • CER "It was originally built in 1919. What failed on PG&E tower at heart of Camp Fire probe?"[27]
  • NYT "'Hell on Earth': The First 12 Hours of California's Deadliest Wildfire"[28]
  • WSJ "Inside the Investigation That Secured a Guilty Plea for 84 Wildfire Deaths"[29]
  • NBC "Hook on PG&E Tower Eyed as Cause of Deadly Camp Fire"[30]
  • CPR "Smoke, Wind Hindered Aircraft Fighting Camp Fire, Officials Say"[31]
  • SFC "Camp Fire 911 calls: As flames raced in, residents were told 'no threat to Paradise'"[32]

Fire impacts Concow

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Fire impacts Paradise

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Remainder of day

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Park Fire

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Miscellaneous links

References

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  1. ^ a b c d Goñi-Lessan, Ana; Burlew, Jeff (October 2, 2024). "Here's how many people died in Hurricane Helene. An updating list of Florida storm victims". Tallahassee Democrat. Retrieved October 3, 2024.
  2. ^ a b Poston, Ben; Jennings, Angel; Serna, Joseph; Panzar, Javier (November 17, 2018). "California fire: Death toll in and around Paradise grows to 76 with 1,276 still missing as Trump visits". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved August 29, 2024.
  3. ^ Alexander, Kurtis (November 26, 2018). "Butte County fire's death toll rises to 88". San Francisco Chronicle. Retrieved August 29, 2024.
  4. ^ Cone, Allen (December 12, 2018). "Camp Fire death toll rises to 86 after man dies from burns". United Press International. Retrieved August 29, 2024.
  5. ^ Chan, Stella; Sterling, Joe (February 8, 2019). "Death toll in Camp Fire revised down by one to 85". CNN. Retrieved August 29, 2024.
  6. ^ Dowd, Katie (August 11, 2019). "Nine months after it burned, the Camp Fire takes its 86th victim". SFGate. Retrieved August 29, 2024.
  7. ^ a b Arthur, Damon (November 7, 2019). "Mystery surrounds last person missing from the Camp Fire". Redding Record Searchlight. Retrieved August 29, 2024.
  8. ^ "Death toll from Northern California's Camp fire back down to 85". Los Angeles Times. Associated Press. September 26, 2019. Retrieved August 29, 2024.
  9. ^ Moctezuma, Diego (March 23, 2024). "Unsolved mystery; Paradise woman still missing". KNVN. Retrieved August 29, 2024.
  10. ^ Von Kaenel, Camille (February 11, 2020). "Families mourn indirect, 'forgotten' deaths from Camp Fire". Chico Enterprise-Record. Retrieved August 29, 2024.
  11. ^ "Death toll in Camp fire probably includes 50 more people, report says". Los Angeles Times. Associated Press. February 11, 2020. Retrieved August 29, 2024.
  12. ^ a b c d e Leins, Daniel; Bauck, Bruce; Bright, David; Mittelstadt, Jon (January 2020). Service Assessment — November 2018 Camp Fire (PDF) (Report). National Weather Service. Archived (PDF) from the original on July 6, 2024. Retrieved August 27, 2024.
  13. ^ a b Mass, Clifford F.; Ovens, David (February 2, 2021). "The Synoptic and Mesoscale Evolution Accompanying the 2018 Camp Fire of Northern California". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 102 (1): E168–E192. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0124.1. ISSN 0003-0007. Retrieved August 27, 2024.
  14. ^ a b St. John, Paige; Serna, Joseph; Lin II, Rong-Gong (December 30, 2018). "Must Reads: Here's how Paradise ignored warnings and became a deathtrap". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved August 28, 2024.
  15. ^ Graff, Amy (November 14, 2018). "Camp Fire vs. Tubbs Fire: The two most destructive fires in California history". SFGate. Retrieved August 28, 2024.
  16. ^ Brown, Tim; Leach, Steve; Wachter, Brent; Gardunio, Billy (January 2020). "The Extreme 2018 Northern California Fire Season". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 101 (1): S1–S4. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0275.1. ISSN 0003-0007. Retrieved August 28, 2024.
  17. ^ Cappuci, Matthew; Samenow, Jason (November 12, 2018). "The weather and climate behind the California infernos that wrecked Paradise and torched Malibu". The Washington Post. Retrieved August 28, 2024.
  18. ^ a b c d e f Maranghides, Alexander; Link, Eric; Mell, William; Hawks, Steven; Wilson, Mike; Brewer, Will; Brown, Chris; Vihnaneck, Bob; Walton, William D. (January 2021). A Case Study of the Camp Fire – Fire Progression Timeline (PDF) (Report). National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). doi:10.6028/NIST.TN.2135. Archived (PDF) from the original on August 21, 2024. Retrieved August 22, 2024.
  19. ^ Green Sheet — Burn Injuries, November 8, 2018, Camp Incident (PDF) (Report). California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (Cal Fire). 2018. Archived from the original (PDF) on June 19, 2024. Retrieved August 28, 2024.
  20. ^ Cornell, Maraya (November 13, 2018). "How catastrophic fires have raged through California". National Geographic. Retrieved August 28, 2024.
  21. ^ a b c Luna, Taryn (November 17, 2018). "California fire: PG&E canceled planned power shut-off in Paradise area just before Camp fire broke out". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved August 28, 2024.
  22. ^ Maranghides, Alexander; Link, Eric D.; Mell, William; Hawks, Steven; Brown, Christopher; Walton, William D. (July 2023). A Case Study of the Camp Fire – Notification, Evacuation, Traffic, and Temporary Refuge Areas (NETTRA) (PDF) (Report). National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). doi:10.6028/NIST.TN.2252. Archived (PDF) from the original on July 10, 2024. Retrieved August 27, 2024.
  23. ^ The Camp Fire Public Report: A Summary of the Camp Fire Investigation (Report). Butte County District Attorney. June 16, 2020. Archived from the original on August 30, 2023. Retrieved August 22, 2024.
  24. ^ Serna, Joseph; Kim, Kyle (April 7, 2019). "Firefighting aircraft 'increasingly ineffective' amid worsening wildfires". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved August 26, 2024.
  25. ^ Gold, Russell; Blunt, Katherine (March 8, 2020). "This Old Metal Hook Could Determine Whether PG&E Committed a Crime". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved August 23, 2024.
  26. ^ Penn, Ivan; Eavis, Peter; Glanz, James (March 18, 2019). "California Wildfires: How PG&E Ignored Risks in Favor of Profits". The New York Times. Retrieved August 22, 2024.
  27. ^ Gafni, Matthias; Peele, Thomas (December 7, 2018). "It was originally built in 1919. What failed on PG&E tower at heart of Camp Fire probe?". Chico Enterprise-Record. Bay Area News Group. Retrieved August 23, 2024.
  28. ^ Almukhtar, Sarah; Griggs, Troy; Johnson, Kirk; Patel, Jugal K.; Singhvi, Anjali; Watkins, Derek (November 18, 2018). "'Hell on Earth': The First 12 Hours of California's Deadliest Wildfire". The New York Times. Archived from the original on November 18, 2018. Retrieved November 18, 2018.
  29. ^ Blunt, Katherine (August 25, 2022). "Inside the Investigation That Secured a Guilty Plea for 84 Wildfire Deaths". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved August 23, 2024.
  30. ^ Derbeken, Jaxon Van (December 5, 2018). "Hook on PG&E Tower Eyed as Cause of Deadly Camp Fire". NBC Bay Area. Retrieved August 23, 2024.
  31. ^ Moffitt, Bob (December 11, 2018). "Smoke, Wind Hindered Aircraft Fighting Camp Fire, Officials Say". Capital Public Radio. Retrieved August 26, 2024.
  32. ^ Cassidy, Megan; Palomino, Joaquin; Fimrite, Peter (January 17, 2019). "Camp Fire 911 calls: As flames raced in, residents were told 'no threat to Paradise'". San Francisco Chronicle. Retrieved August 26, 2024.
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