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2015 Queensland state election

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2015 Queensland state election
← 2012 31 January 2015 2017 →
All 89 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Queensland
45 Assembly seats were needed for a majority
Turnout89.89 (Decrease 1.11 pp)
  First party Second party Third party
 
KAP
Leader Annastacia Palaszczuk Campbell Newman Ray Hopper
Party Labor Liberal National Katter's Australian
Leader since 28 March 2012 (2012-03-28) 22 March 2011 (2011-03-22) 29 November 2012 (2012-11-29)
Leader's seat Inala Ashgrove (lost seat) Condamine;
contested Nanango (lost seat)
Last election 7 seats 78 seats 2 seats
Seats won 44 seats 42 seats 2 seats
Seat change Increase37 Decrease36 Steady
Popular vote 983,054 1,084,060 50,588
Percentage 37.47% 41.32% 1.93%
Swing Increase10.81 Decrease8.33 Decrease9.61
TPP 51.1% 48.9% n/a
TPP swing Increase14.0 Decrease14.0 n/a
The top map shows the first party preference by electorate. The bottom map shows the final two-party preferred vote result by electorate.
Premier before election

Campbell Newman
Liberal National

Premier after election

Annastacia Palaszczuk
Labor

The 2015 Queensland state election was held on 31 January 2015 to elect all 89 members of the unicameral Legislative Assembly of Queensland.

The centre-right Liberal National Party (LNP), led by Premier Campbell Newman, attempted to win a second term but was defeated by the opposition centre-left Australian Labor Party (ALP), led by Opposition Leader Annastacia Palaszczuk. Labor formed a minority government with the support of the lone independent MP in the chamber, Peter Wellington. It is only the seventh change of government in Queensland since 1915, and only the third time since 1932 that a sitting government in the state has failed to win a second term. Furthermore, Annastacia Palaszczuk became the first woman to win government from opposition in a state election (eventual Chief Minister Clare Martin led the Labor Party to victory from opposition in 2001 at an election in the Northern Territory).

The previous election saw Labor, which had governed the state for all but two years since 1989, suffer the worst defeat of a sitting government in the state's history. The LNP won 78 seats—the largest majority government in Queensland history—compared to seven for Labor, two for Katter's Australian Party, and two won by independents. Following Labor's defeat former Premier Anna Bligh retired from politics and was succeeded as party leader by her former Transport Minister, Palaszczuk. Months later, Ray Hopper left the LNP to lead Katter's Australian Party while two further LNP MPs became independents, resulting in a total of 75 LNP seats, seven Labor seats, three Katter seats and four independent seats. Two by-elections saw Labor defeat the LNP, reducing the LNP to 73 seats with Labor on 9 seats. Although Labor hoped to regain much of what it lost in its severe defeat of three years earlier, most polls pointed to the LNP being returned for another term with a reduced majority.

On election night, the outcome of the election was inconclusive, though most political analysts projected that the LNP had lost its majority after suffering what ended up being a record 14-point two-party swing.[1] Newman was defeated in his seat of Ashgrove to his predecessor, Kate Jones—only the second time since Federation that a sitting Queensland premier has lost their own seat. With the outcome in his own seat beyond doubt, Newman announced his retirement from politics, though remained as caretaker premier pending the final results. According to projections from both ABC News and Brisbane's The Courier-Mail, Labor had taken at least 30 seats from the LNP, and was very close to picking up the 36-seat swing it needed to form government in its own right—a feat initially thought impossible when the writs were issued. On the day after the election, both outlets had Labor either two or three seats short of a majority.[2][3] Political analysts opined that the balance of power was likely to rest with Katter's Australian Party and independent Wellington.

Wellington announced on 5 February he would support a Palaszczuk-led Labor minority government on confidence and supply while retaining the right to vote on conscience.[4] On 13 February, the Electoral Commission of Queensland declared the results of the election. Labor won 44 seats, one short of a majority, putting Labor in a position to form a minority government in the hung parliament.[5][6][7] Even allowing for the LNP's previously overwhelming majority, the 37-seat swing is the second-largest shift of seats against a sitting government in Queensland since Federation, only exceeded by the 44-seat shift against Labor in 2012. Conversely, the two-party swing of 13.7 points in 2012 was exceeded by the 2015 two-party swing of 14.0 points.

Palaszczuk approached Governor Paul de Jersey on 11 February and advised him that she could form a minority government.[8][9] Palaszczuk and de Jersey met again on 13 February. At that meeting, de Jersey formally invited Palaszczuk to form a government, an invitation that Palaszczuk accepted. On 14 February, Palaszczuk was sworn in as the 39th Premier of Queensland.[10]

Results

See also: Post-election pendulum for the Queensland state election, 2015 and Results of the Queensland state election, 2015
The composition of the Legislative Assembly following the election.
Winning party by electorate.

Queensland state election, 31 January 2015
Legislative Assembly
<< 2012–2017 >>

Enrolled voters 2,981,145
Votes cast 2,679,874 Turnout 89.89 −1.11
Informal votes 56,431 Informal 2.11 −0.05
Summary of votes by party
Party Primary votes % Swing Seats Change
  Liberal National 1,084,060 41.32 –8.33 42 –34
  Labor 983,054 37.47 +10.81 44 +35
  Greens 221,157 8.43 +0.90 0 ±0
  Palmer United 133,929 5.11 +5.11 0 ±0
  Katter's Australian 50,588 1.93 –9.61 2 ±0
  Family First 31,231 1.19 –0.17 0 ±0
  One Nation 24,111 0.92 +0.82 0 ±0
  Independent 95,313 3.63 +0.47 1 −1
Total 2,623,443     89  
Two-party-preferred
  Labor 1,228,271(est)[11] 51.1 +14.2
  Liberal National 1,176,657(est)[11] 48.9 −14.2
Gallagher Index for the 2015 Queensland state election
Party Votes (%) Seats (%) Difference Difference
squared
Liberal National 41.32% 47.19% 5.87 34.4569
Labor 37.47% 49.44% 11.97 143.2809
Greens 8.43% 0.00% -8.43 71.0649
Palmer United 5.11% 0.00% -5.11 26.1121
Katter 1.93% 2.25% 0.32 0.1024
Family First 1.19% 0.00% -1.19 1.4161
One Nation 0.92% 0.00% -0.92 0.8464
Independent 3.63% 1.12% -2.51 6.3001
Total of differences squared 283.5798
Total / 2 141.7899
Square root of (Total / 2): Gallagher Index result 11.91
The Gallagher Index ranges from 0 to 100. Low indexes (close to 0)
are very proportionate, high indexes (20 or greater) are very disproportionate.


Popular vote
LNP
 
 41.32%
Labor
 
 37.47%
Greens
 
 8.43%
Palmer United
 
 5.11%
Katter's
 
 1.93%
Family First
 
 1.19%
One Nation
 
 0.92%
Independents
 
 3.63%
Two-party preferred vote
Labor
 
 51.1%
LNP
 
 48.9%
Seats
Labor
 
 49.44%
LNP
 
 47.19%
Katter's
 
 2.25%
Independents
 
 1.12%

Seats changing hands

Seat Pre-election Swing Post-election[12]
Party Member Margin Margin Member Party
Algester   Liberal National Anthony Shorten 9.1 −16.1 7.0 Leeanne Enoch Labor  
Ashgrove   Liberal National Campbell Newman 5.7 −9.9 4.3 Kate Jones Labor  
Barron River Liberal National Michael Trout 9.5 −12.6 3.1 Craig Crawford Labor
Brisbane Central   Liberal National Robert Cavallucci 4.9 −8.1 3.3 Grace Grace Labor  
Bulimba   Liberal National Aaron Dillaway 0.1 −6.2 6.1 Di Farmer Labor  
Bundaberg   Liberal National Jack Dempsey 18.2 −19.8 1.6 Leanne Donaldson Labor  
Cairns   Liberal National Gavin King 8.9 −17.3 8.5 Rob Pyne Labor  
Capalaba   Liberal National Steve Davies 3.7 −10.8 7.1 Don Brown Labor  
Cook   Liberal National David Kempton 3.4 −10.2 6.8 Billy Gordon Labor  
Ferny Grove   Liberal National Dale Shuttleworth 9.5 −10.3 0.8 Mark Furner Labor  
Gaven   Independent Alex Douglas N/A1 −17.1 2.0 Sid Cramp Liberal National  
Gladstone   Independent Liz Cunningham 14.0 −25.9 11.9 Glenn Butcher Labor  
Greenslopes   Liberal National Ian Kaye 2.5 −6.7 4.3 Joe Kelly Labor  
Ipswich   Liberal National Ian Berry 4.2 −20.1 15.9 Jennifer Howard Labor  
Ipswich West   Liberal National Sean Choat 7.2 −14.9 7.7 Jim Madden Labor  
Kallangur   Liberal National Trevor Ruthenberg 12.4 −18.6 6.1 Shane King Labor  
Keppel   Liberal National Bruce Young 6.4 −11.2 4.8 Brittany Lauga Labor  
Logan   Liberal National Michael Pucci 4.8 −15.6 10.8 Linus Power Labor  
Lytton   Liberal National Neil Symes 1.6 −11.4 9.8 Joan Pease Labor  
Maryborough   Liberal National Anne Maddern 19.2 −20.9 1.7 Bruce Saunders Labor  
Mirani   Liberal National Ted Malone 11.2 −16.0 4.8 Jim Pearce Labor  
Morayfield   Liberal National Darren Grimwade 5.6 −17.5 11.9 Mark Ryan Labor  
Mount Coot-tha   Liberal National Saxon Rice 5.4 −7.9 2.6 Steven Miles Labor  
Mundingburra   Liberal National David Crisafulli 10.2 −13.0 2.8 Coralee O'Rourke Labor  
Murrumba   Liberal National Reg Gulley 9.5 −16.9 7.4 Chris Whiting Labor  
Nudgee   Liberal National Jason Woodforth 3.1 −14.4 11.3 Leanne Linard Labor  
Pine Rivers   Liberal National Seath Holswich 13.7 −21.3 7.7 Nikki Boyd Labor  
Pumicestone   Liberal National Lisa France 12.1 −14.2 2.1 Rick Williams Labor  
Sandgate   Liberal National Kerry Millard 2.9 −13.0 10.1 Stirling Hinchliffe Labor  
Springwood   Liberal National John Grant 15.4 −17.1 1.7 Mick de Brenni Labor  
Stretton   Liberal National Freya Ostapovitch 9.6 −14.5 5.0 Duncan Pegg Labor  
Sunnybank   Liberal National Mark Stewart 10.2 −17.4 7.2 Peter Russo Labor  
Thuringowa   Liberal National Sam Cox 1.4 −6.9 5.5 Aaron Harper Labor  
Townsville   Liberal National John Hathaway 4.8 −10.5 5.7 Scott Stewart Labor  
Waterford   Liberal National Mike Latter 1.0 −14.4 13.3 Shannon Fentiman Labor  
Yeerongpilly   Independent Carl Judge N/A2 −14.7 13.3 Mark Bailey Labor  
Members whose names are in italics retired at the election.
1 Alex Douglas won the seat of Gaven in 2012 as a LNP member, but quit in November 2012 to sit as an independent. He sat as a PUP member between June 2013 and August 2014.
2 Carl Judge won the seat of Yeerongpilly in 2012 as a LNP member, but quit in November 2012 to sit as an independent. He sat as PUP member between April 2013 and October 2014.

Post-election pendulum

Government seats
Marginal
Ferny Grove Mark Furner ALP 0.8
Bundaberg Leanne Donaldson ALP 1.6
Maryborough Bruce Saunders ALP 1.7
Springwood Mick de Brenni ALP 1.7
Pumicestone Rick Williams ALP 2.1
Mount Coot-tha Steven Miles ALP 2.6
Mundingburra Coralee O'Rourke ALP 2.8
Barron River Craig Crawford ALP 3.1
Brisbane Central Grace Grace ALP 3.3
Greenslopes Joe Kelly ALP 4.2
Ashgrove Kate Jones ALP 4.3
Keppel Brittany Lauga ALP 4.8
Mirani Jimmy Pearce ALP 4.8
Stretton Duncan Pegg ALP 5.0
Thuringowa Aaron Harper ALP 5.5
Townsville Scott Stewart ALP 5.7
Fairly safe
Kallangur Shane King ALP 6.1
Bulimba Di Farmer ALP 6.1
Cook Billy Gordon ALP 6.8
Algester Leeanne Enoch ALP 7.0
Capalaba Don Brown ALP 7.1
Sunnybank Peter Russo ALP 7.2
Murrumba Chris Whiting ALP 7.4
Redcliffe Yvette D'Ath ALP 7.6
Pine Rivers Nikki Boyd ALP 7.7
Ipswich West Jim Madden ALP 7.7
Cairns Rob Pyne ALP 8.5
Stafford Anthony Lynham ALP 9.6
Lytton Joan Pease ALP 9.8
Safe
Sandgate Stirling Hinchliffe ALP 10.1
Logan Linus Power ALP 10.8
Nudgee Leanne Linard ALP 11.2
Morayfield Mark Ryan ALP 11.9
Gladstone Glenn Butcher ALP v IND 11.9
Mackay Julieanne Gilbert ALP 12.4
Mulgrave Curtis Pitt ALP 12.8
Waterford Shannon Fentiman ALP 13.3
Yeerongpilly Mark Bailey ALP 13.3
South Brisbane Jackie Trad ALP 13.8
Rockhampton William Byrne ALP 13.9
Ipswich Jennifer Howard ALP 15.9
Very safe
Bundamba Jo-Ann Miller ALP 21.4
Inala Annastacia Palaszczuk ALP 25.1
Woodridge Cameron Dick ALP 25.9
Non-government seats
Marginal
Lockyer Ian Rickuss LNP v IND 0.2
Mount Ommaney Tarnya Smith LNP 0.2
Whitsunday Jason Costigan LNP 0.4
Mansfield Ian Walker LNP 0.5
Glass House Andrew Powell LNP 1.4
Toowoomba North Trevor Watts LNP 1.6
Albert Mark Boothman LNP 1.7
Everton Tim Mander LNP 1.8
Gaven Sid Cramp LNP 2.2
Redlands Matt McEachan LNP 2.2
Chatsworth Steve Minnikin LNP 2.6
Burdekin Dale Last LNP 2.9
Southport Rob Molhoek LNP 3.2
Caloundra Mark McArdle LNP 3.8
Aspley Tracy Davis LNP 5.2
Currumbin Jann Stuckey LNP 5.2
Cleveland Mark Robinson LNP 5.5
Fairly safe
Burleigh Michael Hart LNP 6.2
Hervey Bay Ted Sorensen LNP 6.6
Callide Jeff Seeney LNP v PUP 6.7
Indooroopilly Scott Emerson LNP 6.7
Burnett Stephen Bennett LNP 6.8
Gympie Tony Perrett LNP 7.1
Hinchinbrook Andrew Cripps LNP 7.1
Broadwater Verity Barton LNP 7.2
Clayfield Tim Nicholls LNP 7.2
Beaudesert Jon Krause LNP 7.5
Moggill Christian Rowan LNP 8.2
Coomera Michael Crandon LNP 8.5
Noosa Glen Elmes LNP v GRN 8.6
Toowoomba South John McVeigh LNP 8.9
Maroochydore Fiona Simpson LNP 9.3
Safe
Kawana Jarrod Bleijie LNP 10.1
Mudgeeraba Ros Bates LNP 11.0
Gregory Lachlan Millar LNP 11.1
Buderim Steve Dickson LNP 12.2
Mermaid Beach Ray Stevens LNP 12.9
Nanango Deb Frecklington LNP 13.2
Warrego Ann Leahy LNP 15.4
Condamine Pat Weir LNP 16.3
Southern Downs Lawrence Springborg LNP 19.2
Surfers Paradise John-Paul Langbroek LNP 19.2
Crossbench seats
Nicklin Peter Wellington IND v LNP 14.9
Dalrymple Shane Knuth KAP v LNP 15.1
Mount Isa Robbie Katter KAP v LNP 15.2

Labor regained power mainly on the strength of recovering much of what it had lost in Brisbane at the 2012 election. Brisbane had been Labor's power base for more than a quarter-century; Labor had gone into the 2012 election holding 36 of the capital's 40 seats, losing all but three at the election. In 2015, however, Labor won 28 seats in Brisbane. The LNP was still in a position to hope for a minority government primarily by sweeping the Gold Coast, albeit in most cases by somewhat smaller margins than in 2012.

Although Queensland is Australia's least centralised state, since the abolition of the Bjelkemander it has been extremely difficult to form even a minority government without a strong base in Brisbane. The 2015 election underscored this. None of the LNP's safe seats (greater than 10 percent 2PP) were located in Brisbane. The LNP's safest seat, Moggill, only had a majority of 8.2 percent, putting it on the strong side of fairly safe. In contrast, all but two of Labor's safe seats were in the capital.

Following the election, the Palmer United Party candidate for Ferny Grove, Mark Taverner, was revealed to be an undischarged bankrupt and was therefore ineligible to run. The revelation spurred speculation that there may need to be a by-election to resolve the seat.[13] The Electoral Commission of Queensland initially released a statement on 8 February saying that it would declare the seat, and then refer the issue to the Supreme Court of Queensland sitting as the Court of Disputed Returns. The statement raised a by-election as a possible outcome.[14]

Lawrence Springborg, who succeeded Newman as LNP leader on 7 February, called for the caretaker government to continue until after a possible Ferny Grove by-election is held, citing both the uncertainty of a hung parliament and doubt over the status of Ferny Grove.[15] Conversely, ABC election analyst Antony Green believed that the Ferny Grove outcome and possible by-election would not affect who forms government.[16] Professor Graeme Orr, an electoral law expert at University of Queensland, labelled the prospect of the LNP maintaining a caretaker government until a possible by-election analogous to a "constitutional coup". Orr also reasoned that the law and facts were against a Ferny Grove by-election.[17] The Electoral Commission of Queensland declared Ferny Grove had been won by the Labor candidate Mark Furner over LNP incumbent Dale Shuttleworth on 11 February, signalling that it would soon refer the matter to the Court of Disputed Returns.[18] Green analysed the Ferny Grove tally and concluded that Taverner did not have an effect on the outcome of the election. Specifically, Green concluded that at most, 353 of Taverner's ballot papers had exhausted. However, Furner would have still won even if all of those votes had gone to Shuttleworth had Taverner not been on the ballot. To Green's mind, this made it extremely difficult to argue that exhausted preferences alone would be enough to demand a by-election in Ferny Grove.[19]

On 13 February the Electoral Commission of Queensland stated that, based on legal advice, they would not be referring the Ferny Grove result to the Court of Disputed Returns. This formally cleared the way for a Labor minority government, and Governor Paul de Jersey invited Palaszczuk to form a government later that day. The LNP stated they were considering their legal options, with Springborg later releasing a statement where he "congratulate[d] incoming Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk and her government".[20][21] On 16 February the LNP announced it would not be challenging the Ferny Grove result.[22]

The disproportionality of the Queensland parliament in the 2015 election was 11.91 according to the Gallagher Index, mainly between Labor and The Greens.

Voting method

Queensland used an optional preferential version of the instant-runoff system in single-member electorates, in 2016 compulsory preferential voting was readopted. The election was conducted by the Electoral Commission of Queensland, an independent body answerable to Parliament. In Queensland, a parliamentary term was for a maximum of three years, measured from the day set for the return of the electoral writs, as a result of the 2016 referendum in future Queensland will have fixed four-year terms. The previous state election was held on 24 March 2012.

Date

Section 80 of the Queensland Electoral Act 1992 states that an election must be held on a Saturday, and that the election campaign must run for a minimum of 26 or a maximum of 56 days following the issue of the writs including the day the writ drops and polling day. Five to seven days following the issue of the writs, the electoral roll is closed, which gives voters a final opportunity to enrol or to notify the Electoral Commission of Queensland of any changes in their place of residence.[23]

The Constitution Act Amendment Act 1890 provides that the Legislative Assembly continues for no more than three years from the day set for the return of writs for the previous election, after which time the Legislative Assembly expires.[24] The day set for the return of writs for the 2012 election was 23 April 2012.[25] The Electoral Act requires the Governor to issue writs for a general election no more than four days after the Legislative Assembly is dissolved or expires.[23]: §78(2)  The last possible day for the next election is therefore a Saturday not more than 56 days beyond four days after the expiry of the Legislative Assembly on 23 April 2015, namely, 20 June 2015.

Under current election rules, the date of the election is at the discretion of the Governor under advice from the Premier, although the leaders of the two largest parties support in principle a change to fixed four-year terms.[26]

On 5 January 2015, media organisations reported that Newman intended to announce the election date the next day.[27][28] On 6 January, Newman confirmed on Twitter that he had visited acting governor Tim Carmody and writs had been issued for an election on 31 January.[29][30] This was the first time in over a century that an Australian general election was held in January. The last January election was held in Tasmania in 1913 and the last on the mainland was the New South Wales colonial election of 1874–75.[31]

The election was held on the same day as the 2015 Davenport state by-election in South Australia.

Key dates

Date Event
6 January 2015 Writ of election issued by the acting Governor[32]
10 January 2015 Close of electoral rolls
13 January 2015 Close of nominations
31 January 2015 Polling day, between the hours of 8am and 6pm
10 February 2015 Cut off for the return of postal ballot papers
13 February 2015 Election results declared, Annastacia Palaszczuk is asked to form government
14 February 2015 Interim Palaszczuk Ministry is sworn in
16 February 2015 Full Palaszczuk Ministry sworn in
16 February 2015 Writ returned and results formally declared
24 March 2015 55th Parliament convened

Contesting parties

Besides the ALP and LNP, the election was contested by The Greens, Family First, Katter's Australian Party, One Nation and the Palmer United Party.[33]

Last election

See also: Post-election pendulum for the Queensland state election, 2012

The last state election to be held was the 2012 Queensland state election where the Australian Labor Party led by Premier Anna Bligh attempted to win a second term as Premier in her own right and a third term overall and a sixth consecutive term in office. Opposing her was the Liberal National Party led by Campbell Newman. The election was the second for Bligh who had succeeded Peter Beattie as Premier in 2007. Newman was the former Lord Mayor of Brisbane from 2004 to 2011, having resigned the position to run for Premier.

As Newman did not have a seat in state parliament, he chose to contest preselection in the seat of Ashgrove for the 2012 election, and lead the party from outside of parliament until the election. Jeff Seeney served as Opposition Leader in the parliament.

The Labor Party went into the election with a modest margin with 51 seats, while the Liberal National Party had 32 seats. Labor was defeated in an historic landslide, the LNP winning 78 seats to just seven for Labor, with Newman winning of Ashgrove from the former Environment Minister, Kate Jones.

Aidan McLindon, the parliamentary leader of the Katter's Australia Party, lost his seat of Beaudesert, but the KAP won two seats. Only two of the independent members were re-elected.

Three by-elections occurred after the 2012 state election. Labor candidate Yvette D'Ath won the 2014 Redcliffe by-election in February, and Labor candidate Anthony Lynham won the 2014 Stafford by-election in July. Jackie Trad held Bligh's former seat of South Brisbane of Labor in an April 2012 by-election, following Bligh's resignation from parliament.

Pre-election pendulum

See also: Pre-election pendulum for the Queensland state election, 2015

Following the 2012 election, Ray Hopper left the LNP to lead Katter's Australian Party while two further LNP MPs became independents (Carl Judge in the electorate of Yeerongpilly and Dr Alex Douglas in the electorate of Gaven), resulting in a total of 75 LNP seats, seven Labor seats, three Katter seats and four independent seats. By-elections in Redcliffe and Stafford saw Labor defeat the LNP, reducing the LNP to 73 seats with Labor on 9 seats.

Retiring MPs

Main article: Candidates of the 2015 Queensland state election

Members who were deselected or who chose not to renominate were as follows:

Labor

LNP

Independent

Polling

Primary vote opinion polling graph

Two-party preferred opinion polling graph

Voting intention

Legislative Assembly polling
Date Firm Primary vote TPP vote
LNP ALP GRN PUP KAP OTH LNP ALP
29 Jan 2015 Essential[44] 39% 38% 7% 5% 2% 9% 50% 50%
29 Jan 2015 Newspoll[45] 41% 37% 6% 3% 2% 11% 52% 48%
29 Jan 2015 Galaxy[46] 38% 39% 10% 5% 2% 10% 46% 54%
20 Jan 2015 ReachTEL[47] 42% 36.7% 8.4% 5.2% — 7.6% 52% 48%
16–18 Jan 2015 Roy Morgan[48] 39.5% 37% 10% 4% 3.5% 6% 50.5% 49.5%
7–8 Jan 2015 Galaxy[49] 41% 38% 8% 3% 3% 7% 52% 48%
6–8 Jan 2015 Newspoll[50] 42% 37% 7% 1% 1% 12% 53% 47%
6 Jan 2015 ReachTEL[51] 40.3% 38.1% 7.6% 6.3% — 7.7% 50% 50%
28 Nov 2014 ReachTEL[51] 39.2% 37.3% 7.9% 6.5% — 9.1% 49% 51%
21–24 Nov 2014 Roy Morgan[52] 39% 36.5% 9.5% 4% 3.5% 7.5% 50.5% 49.5%
18–19 Nov 2014 Galaxy[49] 37% 38% 9% 7% 3% 6% 50% 50%
Oct–Dec 2014 Newspoll 37% 36% 10% — 1%* 16% 50% 50%
24–27 Oct 2014 Roy Morgan[53] 38.5% 38% 10% 6% 2% 5.5% 49.5% 50.5%
9 Oct 2014 ReachTEL[51] 40.9% 36.6% 7.6% 7.2% — 7.7% 51% 49%
26–29 Sept 2014 Roy Morgan[54] 42% 35.5% 9% 6.5% 2.5% 4.5% 51% 49%
4 Sept 2014 ReachTEL[51] 41.2% 36% 6% 9.5% — 7.2% 51% 49%
12–14 Aug 2014 Galaxy[49] 39% 36% 7% 12% 3% 3% 52% 48%
Jul–Sep 2014 Newspoll 39% 32% 10% — 1%* 18% 54% 46%
7 Aug 2014 ReachTEL[51] 41% 34.4% 5.5% 12.6% — 6.5% 52% 48%
3 Jul 2014 ReachTEL[51] 38.7% 34.4% 6.1% 15.4% — 5.4% 51% 49%
5 Jun 2014 ReachTEL[51] 40.9% 34.1% 5.2% 13.6% — 6.3% 53% 47%
21–22 May 2014 Galaxy[55] 43% 34% 8% — 5% 10% 55% 45%
Apr–Jun 2014 Newspoll 32% 34% 8% — 2%* 24% 49% 51%
2 Apr 2014 ReachTEL[56] 39.1% 35.1% 7.3% 8.0% 3.3% 3.0% — —
Jan–Mar 2014 Newspoll 40% 36% 8% — 1%* 15% 52% 48%
Oct–Dec 2013 Newspoll 40% 32% 8% — 2%* 18% 55% 45%
10 Jul 2013 ReachTEL[57] 43.3% 37.0% 5.1% 4.5% 5.7% 4.4% — —
23 May 2013 ReachTEL[58] 44.6% 28.2% 9.0% † 10.4% 7.8% — —
Apr–Jun 2013 Newspoll 44% 29% 10% † 3%* 14% 59% 41%
19 Apr 2013 ReachTEL[59] 45.1% 29.2% 7.7% † 12.7% 5.4% — —
23 Mar – 2 Apr 2013 ReachTEL[60] 45.8% 30.4% 8.2% † 9.9% 5.6% — —
20 Mar 2013 ReachTEL[61] 47.8% 30.2% 8.0% † 10.1% 3.9% — —
22 Feb 2013 ReachTEL[62] 47.1% 28.9% 7.9% † 11.5% 4.5% — —
Jan–Mar 2013 Newspoll 49% 27% 6% † 3%* 15% 62% 38%
18 Jan 2013 ReachTEL[63] 42.5% 34.9% 8.4% † 10.5% 3.6% — —
14 Dec 2012 ReachTEL[64] 41.9% 32.1% 8.2% † 12.1% 5.7% — —
23 Nov 2012 ReachTEL[65] 42% 34.2% 9.5% † 8.9% 5.4% — —
Oct–Dec 2012 Newspoll 42% 31% 8% † 4%* 15% 56% 44%
12 Oct 2012 ReachTEL[66] 44.6% 30.5% 7.5% † 11% 6.4% — —
14 Sept 2012 ReachTEL[67] 44.7% 34.7% 7% † 9.4% 4.1% — —
17 Aug 2012 ReachTEL[68] 44.2% 31.6% 9.2% † 9.6% 5.4% — —
10/11 Jul & 7/8, 14/15 Aug 2012 Roy Morgan[69] 51% 27.5% 7.5% † 5% 9% 59% 41%
2 Jul 2012 ReachTEL[67][70] 56.5% 21.8% 9.4% † 7.4% 4.8% — —
Jul–Sep 2012 Newspoll 48% 30% 9% † 1%* 12% 60% 40%
5/6 & 12/13 June 2012 Roy Morgan[71] 54.5% 28% 7.5% † 3.5% 6.5% 62% 38%
28 March 2012 Annastacia Palaszczuk becomes Labor leader and leader of the opposition
24 Mar 2012 election 49.7% 26.7% 7.5% † 11.5% 4.6% 62.8% 37.2%
20–22 Mar 2012 Newspoll 50% 28% 6% † ‡ 16% 60.8% 39.2%
20–21 Mar 2012 Roy Morgan[72] 51% 28% 7.5% † 8.5% 5% 62% 38%
* KAP is not offered as a choice on Newspoll, individuals must nominate them, as such KAP is included as "Others".
† Palmer United Party announced in April 2013[73] and registered in June 2013,[74] as such, there is no polling data before this point.
‡ KAP part of others prior to election. **On the final Newpoll (29 January 2015), PUP is included with the others total (14%), but a provided footnote shows them to have support of 3% of voters.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here

Better Premier

Approval ratings

Better Premier and satisfaction polling*
Date Firm Better Premier Newman Palaszczuk
Newman Palaszczuk Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
27–29 Jan 2015 Newspoll[45] 43% 42% 35% 58% 38% 40%
16–18 Jan 2015 Roy Morgan[48] 48.5% 51.5% not asked
6–8 Jan 2015 Newspoll[50] 42% 38% 41% 51% 38% 38%
21–24 Nov 2014 Roy Morgan[52] 47.5% 52.5% not asked
Oct–Dec 2014 Newspoll 44% 35% 38% 51% 38% 34%
24–27 Oct 2014 Roy Morgan[53] 47.5% 52.5% not asked
26–29 Sept 2014 Roy Morgan[54] 50% 50% not asked
Jul–Sep 2014 Newspoll 41% 35% 35% 54% 36% 36%
Apr–Jun 2014 Newspoll 39% 35% 33% 57% 35% 37%
Jan–Mar 2014 Newspoll 41% 35% 36% 54% 38% 30%
Oct–Dec 2013 Newspoll 45% 32% 40% 48% 36% 31%
Apr–Jun 2013 Newspoll 49% 26% 41% 46% 34% 33%
Jan–Mar 2013 Newspoll 53% 21% 43% 45% 33% 33%
Oct–Dec 2012 Newspoll 45% 29% 38% 48% 34% 30%
10/11 Jul & 7/8, 14/15 Aug 2012 Roy Morgan[69] 62.5% 20.5% 51% 36% 33% 28.5%
Jul–Sep 2012 Newspoll 55% 21% 47% 38% 29% 30%
5/6 & 12/13 June 2012 Roy Morgan[71] 67.5% 16% 53% 26.5% 26.5% 21%
28 March 2012 Palaszczuk replaces Bligh Newman Bligh Newman Bligh
24 Mar 2012 election – – – – – –
20–22 Mar 2012 Newspoll 51% 36% 47% 40% 36% 58%
20–21 Mar 2012 Roy Morgan[72] 48% 35% 53% 34.5% 38.5% 53.5%
* Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither".
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here

Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of around 1100–1200 electors. The declared margin of error is ±3 percentage points.

See also

References

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