2024 Pakistani general election
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All 336 seats in the National Assembly 169 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 Map of Pakistan with National Assembly constituencies | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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General elections are scheduled to be held in Pakistan less than 60 days after the dissolution of the National Assembly, which is set to dissolve on 13 August 2023, unless dissolved earlier: in which case the election shall be held within 90 days after dissolution according to the constitution. This means that the election must be held no later than 11 November 2023.[1]
Background
2018 elections
General elections were held in Pakistan on Wednesday 25 July 2018 after the completion of a five-year term by the outgoing government. At the national level, elections were held in 272 constituencies, each electing one member to the National Assembly. At the provincial level, elections were held in each of the four provinces to elect Members of the Provincial Assemblies (MPA).
As a result of the elections, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) became the single largest party at the national level both in terms of both popular vote and seats. At the provincial level, the PTI remained the largest party in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP); the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) remained the largest party in Sindh and the newly-formed Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) became the largest party in Balochistan. In Punjab, a hung parliament prevailed with Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML-N) emerging as the largest party in terms of directly elected seats by a narrow margin. However, following the joining of many independent MPAs into the PTI, the latter became the largest party and was able to form the government.
Opinion polling prior to campaigning had initially shown leads for the Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML-N) over the PTI. However, from an 11-point lead, the PML-N's lead began to diminish in the final weeks of the campaign, with some polls close to the election showing PTI with a marginal but increasing lead. In the final result, the PTI made a net gain with 31.82% of the vote (its highest share of the vote since its foundation), while the PML-N made a net loss with 24.35%. In the lead-up to the elections, there had been allegations by some pre-poll rigging being conducted by the judiciary, the military and the intelligence agencies to sway the election results in favour of the PTI and against the PML-N.[2][3] The opposition to the winning parliamentary party alleged large-scale vote rigging and administrative malpractices.[4][5][6] However, Reuters polling suggested PML-N's lead had narrowed in the run-up to the elections, and that the party had suffered "blow after blow" which caused setbacks to any hopes of re-election.[7] Some [8] had termed the ruling PML-N "embattled... facing a number of desertion and corruption charges". Imran Khan proceeded to form the coalition government, announcing his cabinet soon after.[9] The newly formed coalition government included members of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement and Pakistan Muslim League (Q).[10]
Regarding the voting process, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) outrightly rejected reports of rigging and stated that the elections were conducted fair and free.[11][12][13] A top electoral watchdog, Free and Fair Election Network (FAFEN), also said that the 2018 general elections in Pakistan had been "more transparent in some aspects" than the previous polls.[14] In its preliminary report, the European Union Election Observation Mission said that no rigging had been observed during the election day in general, but found a "lack of equality" and criticized the process more than it had in the Pakistani election of 2013.[15][16]
Electoral system
The 336 members of the National Assembly consist of 266 general seats elected by first-past-the-post voting in single-member constituencies,[17] 60 seats reserved for women elected by proportional representation based on the number of general seats won by each party in each province, and ten seats reserved for non-Muslims elected through proportional representation based on the number of overall general seats won by each party.
The government had passed a bill that required the next general elections to be held using EVMs (electronic voting machines). This was aimed at bringing an end to the allegations of rigging that have plagued previous elections in Pakistan, but the opposition's opinion was that it would make it extremely easy for PTI to rig the elections in their favour through security loopholes.[18] In 2022 when the PTI-led government was ousted through a successful vote of no-confidence in the National Assembly, the 11 opposition parties, some of them being long-time rivals, formed a new government and passed the Elections Amendment Bill, which nullified the use of EVMs in the next general elections. Hence, EVMs will not be used in next general elections.
Parties
The table below lists each party that either received a share of the vote higher than 0.5% in the 2018 Pakistan general election or had representation in the 15th National Assembly of Pakistan. Political parties are ordered by their vote share in the 2018 elections. Independent Candidates bagged 11.46% of the vote and 13 national assembly seats (both general seats and total seats in the 15th National Assembly, as reserved seats for women and minorities, are given to political parties) in 2018.
Opinion polls
In the run up to the 2023 Pakistani general elections, various organisations have been carrying out opinion polling to gauge voting intention throughout Pakistan and the approval rating of the civilian Pakistani government, led by Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf. The results of such polls are displayed in this section. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous general election, held on 25 July 2018, to the present day.
National Assembly Voting intention
The results in the tables below (excluding the column on undecided voters and non-voters) exclude survey participants who said they wouldn't vote or they didn't know who they would vote for and add up to 100%. In polls that include undecided voters or non-voters, percentages are adjusted upwards in order to make the total equal 100%. Margins of error are also adjusted upwards at the same rate to account for the increase.
Nationwide
| Polling firm | Last date of polling |
Link | PTI | PML(N) | PPP | MMA[a] | TLP | Other | Ind. | Lead | Margin of error |
Sample size |
Undecideds & Non-voters[b] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 By-Elections | 16 October 2022 | 49.6% | 13.1% | 12.4% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 36.5% | N/A | 1,179,656 | 13,440 | ||
| PA | 17 July 2022 | PTI wins Punjab provincial by-election | |||||||||||
| IPOR (IRI) | 3 June 2022 | 39% | 33% | 12% | 7% | 4% | 5% | 6% | ±2 - 3% | 2,003 | 25% | ||
| NA | 11 April 2022 | Shehbaz Sharif is elected Prime Minister | |||||||||||
| 10 April 2022 | Imran Khan is removed from office in a no-confidence motion | ||||||||||||
| IPOR (IRI) | 21 March 2022 | 35% | 33% | 19% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | ±2 - 3% | 3,509 | 16% | ||
| Gallup Pakistan | 31 January 2022 | 34% | 33% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 9% | 1% | ±3 - 5% | 5,688 | 33% | ||
| IPOR (IRI) | 9 January 2022 | 31% | 33% | 17% | 3% | 3% | 11% | 1% | 2% | ±2 - 3% | 3,769 | 11% | |
| IPOR (IRI) | 11 November 2020 | 36% | 38% | 13% | 4% | 3% | 6% | 2% | ±3.22% | 2,003 | 32% | ||
| IPOR (IRI) | 13 August 2020 | 33% | 38% | 15% | 3% | 3% | 8% | 5% | ±2.95% | 2,024 | 26% | ||
| IPOR (IRI) | 30 June 2020 | 24% | 27% | 11% | 3% | 2% | 33% | 3% | ±2.38% | 1,702 | N/A[c] | ||
| Gallup Pakistan | 24 June 2019 | 31% | 28% | 15% | 5% | 21% | 3% | ±3 - 5% | ~1,400 | N/A[c] | |||
| IPOR (IRI) | 22 November 2018 | 43% | 27% | 15% | 1% | 1% | 11% | 1% | 16% | ±2.05% | 3,991 | 22% | |
| NA | 17 August 2018 | Imran Khan is elected Prime Minister | |||||||||||
| 2018 Elections | 25 July 2018 | ECP | 31.8% | 24.3% | 13.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 7.5% | N/A | 53,123,733 | N/A |
Punjab
| Polling firm | Last date of polling |
Link | PTI | PML(N) | PPP | TLP | Other | Ind. | Lead | Sample size |
Undecideds & Non-voters[b] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2022 By-elections | 16 October 2022 | 49.0% | 42.5% | 7.0% | 1.5% | 6.3% | 351,267 | 6,483 | |||
| Jul 2022 By-elections | 17 July 2022 | [19] | 46.8% | 39.5% | 5.54% | 7.85% | 7.3% | 2,240,465 | 1.59 | ||
| NA | 11-12 April 2022 | Imran Khan is removed from office in a no-confidence motion | |||||||||
| IPOR (IRI) | 21 March 2022 | 34% | 42% | 6% | 2% | 16% | 8% | ~1,900 | N/A[c] | ||
| Gallup Pakistan | 31 January 2022 | 35% | 43% | 7% | 3% | 9% | 3% | 8% | ~3,100 | 31% | |
| IPOR (IRI) | 9 January 2022 | 31% | 46% | 5% | 3% | 15% | 15% | 2,035 | N/A[c] | ||
| IPOR (IRI) | 11 November 2020 | 26% | 39% | 5% | 2% | 27% | 1% | 13% | 1,089 | N/A[c] | |
| 2018 Elections | 25 July 2018 | ECP | 33.6% | 31.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 18.8% | 1.9% | 33,218,101 | N/A |
Sindh
| Polling firm | Last date of polling |
Link | PTI | PPP | MQM(P) | MMA | Other | Ind. | Lead | Sample size |
Undecideds & Non-voters[b] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sindh By-elections | 16 October 2022 | 50.0% | 25.6% | 12.5% | 0.15 | 11.8% | 24.4% | 146,470 | 1,493 | ||
| NA-245 By-election | 21 August 2022 | [20] | 48.85% | 21.87% | 23.51 | 5.77 | 26.98% | 60,760 | 0.70% | ||
| NA | 11-12 April 2022 | Imran Khan is removed from office in a no-confidence motion | |||||||||
| IPOR (IRI) | 21 March 2022 | 17% | 44% | 5% | 34% | 27% | ~810 | N/A[c] | |||
| Gallup Pakistan | 31 January 2022 | 30% | 34% | 3% | 3% | 28% | 2% | 4% | ~1,300 | 39% | |
| IPOR (IRI) | 9 January 2022 | 13% | 44% | 7% | 36% | 31% | 867 | N/A[c] | |||
| IPOR (IRI) | 11 November 2020 | 13% | 22% | 1% | 3% | 61% | 9% | 467 | N/A[c] | ||
| 2018 Elections | 25 July 2018 | ECP | 14.5% | 38.4% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 25.9% | 7.4% | 23.6% | 10,025,437 | N/A |
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
| Polling firm | Last date of polling |
Link | PTI | MMA | ANP | PML(N) | PPP | Other | Ind. | Lead | Sample size |
Undecideds & Non-voters[b] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KPK By-elections | 16 October 2022 | 53.3% | 41.9% | 4.8% | 11.4% | 445,604 | 6,994 | |||||
| PK-7 By-election | 26 June 2022 | [21] | 52% | 44% | 2% | 8% | 33,573 | 2% | ||||
| NA-33 By Election | 17 April 2022 | 48.8% | 42.8% | 8.4% | 6% | 43,148 | 537 | |||||
| NA | 11-12 April 2022 | Imran Khan is removed from office in a no-confidence motion | ||||||||||
| IPOR (IRI) | 21 March 2022 | 38% | 23% | 8% | 13% | 8% | 10% | 15% | ~600 | N/A[c] | ||
| Gallup Pakistan | 31 January 2022 | 44% | 13% | 6% | 21% | 8% | 7% | 1% | 23% | ~970 | 28% | |
| IPOR (IRI) | 9 January 2022 | 44% | 17% | 11% | 11% | 7% | 10% | 27% | 641 | N/A[c] | ||
| IPOR (IRI) | 11 November 2020 | 34% | 8% | 3% | 12% | 4% | 26% | 21% | 331 | N/A[c] | ||
| 2018 Elections | 25 July 2018 | ECP | 39.3% | 18.9% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 10.8% | 20.4% | 6,611,287 | N/A |
Government approval rating
The results in this table show polls that surveyed whether people approved or disapproved of either the overall (not on a single issue) performance of the federal government in Islamabad or the Prime Minister’s overall performance since 18 August 2018.
The same rounding restrictions that were given in the previous section do not apply here, so occasionally, results will add up to 101% or 99% due to rounding errors, and neutral respondents (when data is available for them) are counted in this table, unlike the last table.
| Polling firm | Last date of polling |
Link | Approve | Neutral | Disapprove | DK/NA | Strongly approve |
Approve | Neutral | Disapprove | Strongly disapprove |
DK/NA | Net | Margin of error | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NA | 11 April 2022 | Shehbaz Sharif is elected Prime Minister | |||||||||||||
| 10 April 2022 | Imran Khan is removed from office in a no-confidence motion | ||||||||||||||
| Gallup Pakistan | 4 April 2022 | 46% | N/A | 54% | N/A | N/A | -8% | ±3 - 5% | ~800 | ||||||
| Gallup Pakistan | 31 January 2022 | 36% | 14% | 48% | 3% | 15% | 21% | 14% | 18% | 30% | 3% | -12% | ±3 - 5% | 5,688 | |
| Gallup Pakistan | 4 September 2021 | 48% | N/A | 45% | 7% | N/A | +3% | ±3 - 5% | ~1,200 | ||||||
| Gallup Pakistan | 19 August 2020 | 38% | 30% | 31% | 2% | 22% | 16% | 30% | 13% | 18% | 2% | +7% | ±3 - 5% | 1,662 | |
| IPOR (IRI) | 13 August 2020 | 38% | N/A | 54% | 7% | 16% | 22% | N/A | 17% | 37% | 7% | -16% | ±2.18% | 2,024 | |
| Gallup Pakistan | 15 February 2020 | 32% | N/A | 66% | 1% | 8% | 24% | N/A | 19% | 47% | 1% | -34% | ±3 - 5% | 1,208 | |
| Gallup Pakistan | 30 September 2019 | 45% | N/A | 53% | 2% | 15% | 32% | N/A | 16% | 37% | 2% | -8% | ±3 - 5% | 1,237 | |
| Gallup Pakistan | 24 June 2019 | 45% | N/A | 53% | 2% | 21% | 24% | N/A | 32% | 21% | 2% | -8% | ±3 - 5% | ~1,400 | |
| Gallup Pakistan | 29 December 2018 | 51% | N/A | 46% | 3% | 13% | 38% | N/A | 26% | 20% | 3% | +5% | ±2 - 3% | ~1,141 | |
| IPOR (IRI) | 1 December 2018 | 47% | N/A | 27% | 26% | 17% | 30% | N/A | 18% | 9% | 26% | +20% | ±2.17% | 2,041 | |
| Pulse Consultant | 28 November 2018 | HTML | 51% | N/A | 30% | 19% | N/A | +21% | ±2.07% | 2,019 | |||||
| IPOR (IRI) | 22 November 2018 | 56% | N/A | 40% | 5% | 16% | 40% | N/A | 28% | 12% | 5% | +16% | ±2.05% | 3,991 | |
Notes
- ^ Certain polls only include data for the JUI(F) instead of the MMA, and in those cases data for the JUI(F) is used because the JUI(F) is the largest constituent party of the MMA and makes up most of its base.
- ^ a b c d This is a column that lists the percentage of undecided voters and non-voters in certain polls that publish this data. As some polls do not publish any data whatsoever on undecided voters and non-voters, the columns with survey participants that had a preference when polled are all that is needed to reach 100%. In surveys that do include data on non-voters and undecided voters, a scaling factor is applied to the margin of error and the rest of the data (for example, if the number of undecideds and non-voters equals 20%, each party would have their vote share scaled up by a factor of 100/80 (the formula is 100/(100-UndecidedPercentage)). This is done to keep consistency between the different polls and the different types data they provide.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k This poll or crosstabulation did not include any data about undecided voters or non-voters and cut them out completely from the published results.
References
- ^ "The Constitution of Pakistan, Part VIII: Elections".
- ^ "The assault on Pakistan media ahead of vote". Bbc.com. 4 July 2018. Retrieved 7 July 2018.
- ^ Fair, C. Christine (27 July 2018). "Pakistan's Sham Election". Foreign Affairs. Retrieved 6 August 2018.
- ^ "Ex-cricketer Khan leads Pakistan elections in early counting". BBC News. 26 July 2018. Retrieved 27 July 2018.
- ^ Gannon, Kathy (26 July 2018). "Unofficial Results in Pakistan's Election Show Lead For Imran Khan, But Opponents Allege Fraud". TIME Magazine. Archived from the original on July 29, 2018. Retrieved 26 July 2018.
- ^ Shah, Saeed (25 July 2018). "Ex-Cricket Star Imran Khan Headed for Pakistan Election Victory". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 26 July 2018.
- ^ "Blow after blow dims re-election hopes of Pakistan's ruling party". 11 May 2018 – via uk.reuters.com.
- ^ "Pakistan's ex-PM Nawaz Sharif slammed for Mumbai attack comments". aljazeera.com.
- ^ "Imran Khan Close to Forming Pakistan Coalition, Cabinet Decided". Bloomberg.com. 2018-07-30. Retrieved 2020-10-05.
- ^ "Imran Khan starts to build governing coalition in Pakistan". Financial Times.
- ^ "Pakistan election: Party of Ex-PM Nawaz Sharif concedes to Imran Khan".
- ^ "ECP rejects political parties' claim of 'rigging' on election day".
- ^ "'PML-N rejects poll results,' declares Shahbaz Sharif". Dawn. 25 July 2018. Retrieved 26 July 2018.
- ^ "FAFEN satisfied with transparency of polls, urges ECP to allay opposition's concerns". July 27, 2018.
- ^ Barker, Memphis (27 July 2018). "EU piles pressure on Imran Khan after Pakistan election". theguardian.com. Retrieved 28 July 2018.
- ^ "EU monitors team says Pakistan election not a level playing field". Geo TV news. 28 July 2018.
- ^ Electoral system IPU
- ^ "PM vows to defeat the 'corrupt'". The Express Tribune. 2021-04-25. Retrieved 2021-04-27.
- ^ "2022 Punjab provincial by-election Result Dashboard- dunyanews.tv". Dunya News. Retrieved 2022-07-28.
- ^ "PTI wins NA-245 seat by huge margin". The Express Tribune. 2022-08-21. Retrieved 2022-08-23.
- ^ "PK-7 Bye Election" (PDF). FAFEN.