Next Queensland state election

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Next Queensland state election
Queensland
2012 ←
On or before 20 June 2015

All 89 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Queensland
45 seats needed for a majority
  Campbell Newman No image.svg
Leader Campbell Newman Annastacia Palaszczuk
Party Liberal National Labor
Leader since 22 March 2011 (2011-03-22) 28 March 2012 (2012-03-28)
Leader's seat Ashgrove Inala
Last election 78 seats 7 seats
Current seats 73 seats 9 seats
Seats needed Steady0 Increase36
TPP @ 2012 62.8% 37.2%
TPP polling 49% 51%
BP polling 39% 35%

Incumbent Premier

Campbell Newman
Liberal National

The next Queensland state election will elect all 89 members of the unicameral Legislative Assembly. This will occur no later than 20 June 2015 under current election rules, though the leaders of the two largest parties support in principle a change to fixed four-year terms.[1]

The Liberal National Party, led by Premier Campbell Newman will seek its second term after defeating Labor at the 2012 election in the largest defeat of a sitting government in Queensland history. The LNP won 78 seats—the largest majority government in Queensland history—compared to seven for Labor, two for Katter's Australian Party, and two won by independents. Following Labor's defeat former Premier Anna Bligh resigned as Labor leader and was succeeded by Annastacia Palaszczuk. Months later, Ray Hopper left the LNP to lead Katter's Australian Party while two further LNP MPs became independents, resulting in a total of 75 LNP seats, seven Labor seats, three Katter seats and five independent seats. Two by-elections saw Labor defeat the LNP, reducing the LNP to 73 seats with Labor on 9 seats.

Voting method[edit]

Queensland uses optional preferential version of the instant-runoff system in single-member electorates. The election will be conducted by the Electoral Commission of Queensland, an independent body answerable to Parliament. In Queensland, a parliamentary term is a maximum of three years, measured from the day set for the return of the electoral writs. The previous state election was held on 24 March 2012.

Date[edit]

Section 80 of the Queensland Electoral Act 1992 states that an election must be held on a Saturday, and that the election campaign must run for a minimum of 26 or a maximum of 56 days following the issue of the writs including the day the writ drops and polling day. Five to seven days following the issue of the writs, the electoral roll is closed, which gives voters a final opportunity to enrol or to notify the Electoral Commission of Queensland of any changes in their place of residence.[2]

The Constitution Act Amendment Act 1890 provides that the Legislative Assembly continues for no more than three years from the day set for the return of writs for the previous election, after which time the Legislative Assembly expires.[3] The day set for the return of writs for the 2012 election was 23 April 2012.[4] The Electoral Act requires the Governor to issue writs for a general election no more than four days after the Legislative Assembly is dissolved or expires.[5] The last possible day for the next election is therefore a Saturday not more than 56 days beyond four days after the expiry of the Legislative Assembly on 23 April 2015, namely, 20 June 2015.

Last election[edit]

The last state election to be held was the 2012 Queensland State election where the Australian Labor Party led by Premier Anna Bligh attempted to win a second term as Premier in her own right and a third term overall and a sixth consecutive term in office. Opposing her was the Liberal National Party led by LNP leader Campbell Newman. The election was the second for Bligh who had succeeded Peter Beattie as Premier in 2007. Newman was the former Lord Mayor of Brisbane from 2004 to 2011, having resigned the position to run for Premier.

As Newman did not have a seat in state parliament, standard practice calls for an MP from a safe seat to resign so that a newly elected leader can get into parliament via a by-election, though this is not universally followed. However, when Newman became leader in 2011, a by-election could not be arranged. Newman therefore chose to contest preselection in the seat of Ashgrove for the next election, and lead the party from outside of parliament until the election. Jeff Seeney served as Opposition Leader in the parliament.

The Labor Party went into the election with a modest margin with 51 seats, while the Liberal National Party had 32 seats. Queensland voted out the Labor Party in a historic landslide defeat, the LNP winning 78 seats to just seven for Labor, with Newman winning of Ashgrove from former Environment Minister Kate Jones.

Aidan McLindon, the parliamentary leader of the Katter's Australia Party, lost his seat of Beaudesert, but the KAP won two seats. Only two of the independent members were re-elected.

Three by-elections have occurred since the last state election. Labor candidate Yvette D'Ath won the 2014 Redcliffe by-election in February, and Labor candidate Anthony Lynham won the 2014 Stafford by-election in July.

Retiring MPs[edit]

Members who have chosen not to renominate are as follows:

Labor[edit]

LNP[edit]

Polling[edit]

Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of around 1100–1200 electors. The declared margin of error is ±3 percentage points.

Legislative Assembly polling
Primary vote TPP vote
LNP ALP GRN KAP+ OTH LNP ALP
Apr–Jun 2014 32% 34% 8% 2% 24% 49% 51%
Jan–Mar 2014 40% 36% 8% 1% 15% 52% 48%
Oct–Dec 2013 40% 32% 8% 2% 18% 55% 45%
Apr–Jun 2013 44% 29% 10% 3% 14% 59% 41%
Jan–Mar 2013 49% 27% 6% 3% 15% 62% 38%
Oct–Dec 2012 42% 31% 8% 4% 15% 56% 44%
Jul–Sep 2012 48% 30% 9% 1% 12% 60% 40%
2012 election 49.7% 26.7% 7.5% 11.5% 4.6% 62.8% 37.2%
20–22 Mar 2012 50% 28% 6% * 16% 60.8% 39.2%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.
*KAP part of others prior to election.
+KAP not offered as a choice on Newspoll, individuals must nominate them, as such KAP is included as "Others".
Better Premier and satisfaction polling^
Better Premier Newman Palaszczuk
Newman Palaszczuk Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
Apr–Jun 2014 39% 35% 33% 57% 35% 37%
Jan–Mar 2014 41% 35% 36% 54% 38% 30%
Oct–Dec 2013 45% 32% 40% 48% 36% 31%
Apr–Jun 2013 49% 26% 41% 46% 34% 33%
Jan–Mar 2013 53% 21% 43% 45% 33% 33%
Oct–Dec 2012 45% 29% 38% 48% 34% 30%
Jul–Sep 2012 55% 21% 47% 38% 29% 30%
2012 election
20–22 Mar 2012 51% 47% 40%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.
^Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.


See also[edit]


References[edit]

  1. ^ "Fixed four-year terms on horizon in the Sunshine State". The Australian. 29 March 2012. 
  2. ^ Electoral Act 1992. Retrieved 25 January 2012.
  3. ^ Constitution of Queensland 2001. Retrieved 25 January 2012.
  4. ^ "Election Timetable: 2012 State General election". Electoral Commission of Queensland. Retrieved 25 January 2012. 
  5. ^ Electoral Act 1992, section 78(2).
  6. ^ Amy Remeikis (2013-01-17). "Cameron Dick's plan to return puts Labor leadership in the spotlight". Brisbanetimes.com.au. Retrieved 2014-04-02. 
  7. ^ http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-mp-david-gibson-to-quit-politics-20140502-zr3jr.html