2024 United Kingdom general election
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All 650 seats[a] in the House of Commons 326 seats needed for a majority | |||||
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The next United Kingdom general election is scheduled to be held on Thursday 2 May 2024, in line with the Fixed-term Parliaments Act. If held to schedule, it would be the second general election to be held at the end of a fixed-term Parliament, and the first since 2015.
Background
The result at the last general election and the current situation in the House of Commons is given below:
This table relates to the composition of the House of Commons after the 2024 UK general election and summarises the changes in party affiliation that took place during the 2024–present Parliament.
| Affiliation | Members | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elected in 2024[1] |
Current[2] | Difference | ||
| Labour[b] | 411[c] | 403 |  8
| |
| Conservative | 121 | 121 | 
| |
| Liberal Democrats | 72 | 72 |
| |
| SNP | 9 | 9 |
| |
| Independent | 6 | 14[d] |  8
| |
| Sinn Féin | 7 | 7 |
| |
| DUP | 5 | 5 |
| |
| Reform UK | 5 | 5 |
| |
| Green (E&W) | 4 | 4 |
| |
| Plaid Cymru | 4 | 4 |
| |
| SDLP | 2 | 2 |
| |
| Alliance | 1 | 1 |
| |
| TUV | 1 | 1 |
| |
| UUP | 1 | 1 |
| |
| Speaker | 1 | 1 |
| |
| Vacant | 0 | 0 |
| |
| Total | 650 | 650 |
| |
| Total voting[e] | 639 | 639 |
| |
| Majority of voting | 181 | 165[6] |
| |
For full details of changes during the 2024–present Parliament, see By-elections and Defections, suspensions and resignations.
Electoral system
Provisionally, the next general election will be conducted using the same electoral system as the 2019 election (first-past-the-post).
The Conservative Party, which won a majority at the 2019 general election, included pledges in its manifesto to remove the fifteen-year limit on voting for British citizens living abroad, and to introduce a voter identification requirement[7] in Great Britain.
Boundary review
In March 2020, Cabinet Office minister Chloe Smith confirmed that the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies would commence based on retaining 650 seats.[8][9] The 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies will begin in 2021 with the previous relevant legislation having been amended by the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020.[10]
The postponed Sixth Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies proposed reducing the number of constituencies from 650 to 600. In April 2016, each of the four parliamentary Boundary Commissions of the United Kingdom recommenced their review process.[11][12][13] A projection by psephologists Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher of how the 2017 votes would have translated to seats under the new boundaries suggested the changes would be beneficial to the Conservative Party and detrimental to Labour.[14][15]
Prior to the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020, boundary changes could not be implemented until they were approved by both Houses of Parliament. No changes were submitted by the government during the 2017–2019 Parliament.[16] The majority Conservative government manifesto states that this will be implemented before the next general election.
Date of the election
The Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 (FTPA) introduced fixed-term parliaments to the United Kingdom, with elections scheduled on the first Thursday in May of the fifth year after the previous general election, unless the previous general election took place between 1 January and the first Thursday in May, in which case the election takes place on the first Thursday in May of the fourth year after the previous general election.[17]
Removing the power of the monarch, on advice of the prime minister, to dissolve parliament before its five-year maximum length,[17] the act permits early dissolution if the House of Commons votes by a two-thirds supermajority. Parliament is also dissolved if a government loses a vote of no confidence by a simple majority and a new government is not formed within 14 days.[18] Alternatively, a bill requiring just a simple majority in both Houses could be introduced to establish in law an earlier date for the election, which is how the date of the previous general election was set in 2019.[19]
Thus, the next general election is due to take place on Thursday 2 May 2024, unless it is triggered earlier.[20] Under the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013 parliament would be dissolved 25 working days before this date on Tuesday 26 March 2024.[21] Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, the Prime Minister may schedule polling day up to two months after 2 May 2024, subject to approval by both Houses.
Proposed repeal of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act
At the 2019 general election, where the Conservatives won a majority of 80 seats, the manifesto of the party contained a commitment to repeal the Fixed-term Parliaments Act due to "paralysis at a time when the country has needed decisive action".[22] The pledge was confirmed in the first Queen's Speech following the election.[23]
In December 2020 the government published a draft Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 (Repeal) Bill, later retitled the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Bill when it was laid before Parliament in May 2021,[24] which will ultimately repeal the 2011 Fixed-term Parliaments Act, revive the prerogative powers of the Prime Minister to request a dissolution of Parliament, and ensure that a Parliament is automatically dissolved five years after it first met.[25]
Opinion polling
| Opinion polling for UK general elections |
|---|
| 2010 election |
| Opinion polls |
| 2015 election |
| Opinion polls • Leadership approval |
| 2017 election |
| Opinion polls |
| 2019 election |
| Opinion polls • Leadership approval |
| Next election |
| Opinion polls • Leadership approval |
The chart below shows opinion polls conducted since the 2024 general election. The trend lines are local regressions (LOESS). The bar on the left represents the previous election, and the bar on the right represents the latest possible date of the next election.
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Notes
- ^ Under the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011 the number of constituencies would have been reduced to 600 following the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies. The Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020 kept the number of constituencies in 650.
- ^ Includes 43 MPs sponsored by the Co-operative Party, who are designated Labour and Co-operative.[3]
- ^ Some media sources, such as BBC News, listed Labour's total as 412, by including the Speaker (who, to demonstrate his neutrality, had resigned his Labour Party membership on taking office).
- ^ Eight were elected as Labour MPs but seven of these have been suspended from the parliamentary party until December 2024. Rosie Duffield resigned from the Labour Party on 28 September 2024. Five Independent MPs form the Independent Alliance technical group.
- ^ In the current (2024–present) Parliament, the seven members of Sinn Féin follow a policy of abstentionism. They do not swear into the house, and do not take part in its formal processes (doing so would also compel a by-election).[4] The speaker and deputy speakers (expected to be two Conservative and one Labour) by convention exercise only a casting vote.[5]
References
- ^ "Election 2024: Results". BBC News. Retrieved 5 July 2024.
- ^ Cracknell, Richard; Baker, Carl; Pollock, Loui (26 July 2024). "General election 2024 results – House of Commons Library". UK Parliament. Retrieved 10 August 2024.
- ^ "About: Members of Parliament". Co-operative Party. Retrieved 10 May 2024.
- ^ Kelly, Conor (19 August 2019). "Understanding Sinn Féin's Abstention from the UK Parliament". E-International Relations. Retrieved 16 December 2019.
- ^ Boothroyd, David. "House of Commons: Tied Divisions". United Kingdom Election Results. Archived from the original on 6 March 2008. Retrieved 3 June 2024.
- ^ Zodgekar, Ketaki; Baker, Finn (5 July 2024). "How big is the Labour government's majority?". Retrieved 24 July 2024.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - ^ "Our Plan - Conservative Manifesto 2019". Conservative Party. Retrieved 17 December 2019.
- ^ "Correspondence with Chloe Smith MP" (PDF). parliament.uk.
- ^ Proctor, Kate (26 March 2020). "MPs no longer to get automatic vote on constituency boundary plans". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077.
- ^ "Parliamentary Constituencies Act". legislation.gov.uk. Retrieved 17 December 2020.
- ^ "Boundary review launched". Boundary Commission for England. 24 February 2016. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
- ^ "2018 Review of Westminster Parliamentary constituencies". Boundary Commission for Scotland. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
- ^ "2018 Review". Boundary Commission for Wales. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
- ^ "Ian Jones on Twitter". Twitter. 10 September 2018. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
- ^ "New parliamentary map would have given Tories a majority of 16 at last election". ITV News. 10 September 2018. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
- ^ Johnston, Ron; Pattie, Charles; Rossiter, David (30 April 2019). "Boundaries in limbo: why the government cannot decide how many MPs there should be". LSE British Politics and Policy. London School of Economics. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
- ^ a b Horne, Alexander; Kelly, Richard (19 November 2014). "Alexander Horne and Richard Kelly: Prerogative powers and the Fixed-term Parliaments Act". ukconstitutionallaw.org. UK Constitutional Law Association. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
- ^ "House of Commons Debate 5 July 2010 c 23". parliament.uk. UK Parliament. 5 July 2010. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
- ^ "MPs back December election". 29 October 2019. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
- ^ Tuft, Ben (8 May 2015). "When will the next UK General Election be held?". The Independent. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
- ^ "General election timetable 2015". parliament.uk. UK Parliament. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
- ^ Kettle, Martin (12 December 2019). "If the exit poll is right, this election will transform British politics". The Guardian. Retrieved 13 December 2019.
- ^ "Full transcript: The Queen's Speech". The Spectator. 19 December 2019. Retrieved 19 December 2019.
- ^ "Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Bill". parliament.uk. Retrieved 12 May 2021.
- ^ "Government to fulfil manifesto commitment and scrap Fixed-term Parliaments Act". GOV.UK. 1 December 2020. Retrieved 6 December 2020.
