Risk homeostasis
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Risk homeostasis is a hypothesis about risk, developed by Gerald J.S. Wilde, a professor emeritus of psychology at Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada. This hypothesis is elucidated in Wilde's book[1] Wilde's work is not widely accepted and has garnered criticism. [2]
The hypothesis of risk homeostasis holds that everyone has his or her own fixed level of acceptable risk. When the level of risk in one part of the individual's life changes, there will be a corresponding rise or fall in risk elsewhere to bring the overall risk back to that individual's equilibrium. Wilde argues that the same is true of larger human systems, e.g. a population of drivers.
For example, in a Munich study, half a fleet of taxicabs were equipped with anti-lock brakes, while the other half had conventional brake systems. The crash rate was the same for both types of cab, and Wilde concludes this was due to drivers of ABS-equipped cabs taking more risks, assuming that ABS would take care of them, while the non-ABS drivers drove more carefully since ABS would not be there to help in case of a dangerous situation.[3]
Likewise, it's been found that drivers behave less carefully around bicyclists wearing helmets than around unhelmeted riders[4]
Wilde states that the massive increase in car safety features has had little effect on the rate or costs of crashes overall, and argues that safety campaigns tend to shift rather than reduce risk.[citations needed]
[edit] See also
[edit] External links
- Target Risk - web version of the first edition of Wilde's book
[edit] References
- ^ Wilde, Gerald J.S. (20001). Target Risk 2: A New Psychology of Safety and Health. ISBN 0-9699124-3-9.
- ^ O'Neill B, Williams A (June 1998). "Risk homeostasis hypothesis: a rebuttal". Inj. Prev. 4 (2): 92–3. PMID 9666359.
- ^ Munich taxicab experiment discussion
- ^ Drivers leave less margin when overtaking helmeted cyclists
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