Jump to content

No-deal Brexit: Difference between revisions

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Browse history interactively
← Previous editNext edit →
Content deleted Content added
VisualWikitext
→‎EU preparedness: deleted Netherlands bit I just added as this is general Brexit prep, not specifically no-deal prep
→‎The possibility of no-deal Brexit: moved more material from Brexit negotiations. see history of that article for provenance
Line 11: Line 11:


==The possibility of no-deal Brexit==
==The possibility of no-deal Brexit==
In June 2017, a "no-deal" Brexit was likened by [[General Council of the Bar]], a lawyers' interest body, to "falling over the cliff-edge".<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.barcouncil.org.uk/media-centre/publications/2017/2017/march/the-brexit-papers-second-edition/ |title=The Brexit Papers: Second Edition |website=General Council of the Bar |accessdate=23 June 2017 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170614163952/http://www.barcouncil.org.uk/media-centre/publications/2017/2017/march/the-brexit-papers-second-edition |archive-date=14 June 2017 |dead-url=yes |df=dmy-all }}</ref> According to the IMF, the no deal Brexit could create economic pain across Europe, with no winner.<ref name="no-deal-brexit-imf">{{cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/19/no-deal-brexit-would-harm-all-european-countries-warns-imf |title=No-deal Brexit would harm EU countries as well as UK, warns IMF |first=Richard |last=Partington |date=19 July 2018|newspaper=The Guardian}}</ref> The most affected country would be UK, according to the IMF:<ref name="no-deal-brexit-imf" /> the IMF consider that UK and Ireland could lose 4% of their GDP, while close countries such as the Netherlands, Denmark and Belgium could lose 1% of GDP.<ref name="no-deal-brexit-imf" />

{{As of|2018|5|28}} the Speaker of the UK House of Commons proposed that while a no-deal exit on 31 October 2019 was the current default position in law it would not inevitably happen if even there was no agreement by that date with EU.<ref name="JB-MPs-say"/>
{{As of|2018|5|28}} the Speaker of the UK House of Commons proposed that while a no-deal exit on 31 October 2019 was the current default position in law it would not inevitably happen if even there was no agreement by that date with EU.<ref name="JB-MPs-say"/>


Revision as of 18:50, 28 July 2019

A no-deal Brexit, also termed a clean break Brexit, is where the United Kingdom (UK) leaves the European Union (EU) without a corresponding withdrawal agreement treaty between the EU and the UK. Such a Treaty would make provision for continuance of citizens' rights,[a] border arrangements, money liabilities,[b] and resolution of disputes, according to publicly available sources. As of July 2019, unless a withdrawal agreement is ratified or an extension negotiated, the UK will leave the EU on 31 October 2019 on a "no-deal" basis. This article also outlines some practical and immediate notable effects that reliable sources expect such an exit to have.

Both the UK and the EU have made contingency plans for a situation where the UK exit happens without a ratified withdrawal agreement. If this happens, various interactions between the EU and the UK that are governed by EU legislation and agreements, would cease to apply. Additionally UK interactions with non-EU countries that have been governed by EU agreements with those countries, would be undermined.

While trading of goods (though not services) would continue to be governed by World Trade Organization (WTO) most favoured nation rules, the situation for UK nationals in the EU and EU nationals in the UK is more problematic, and the UK and the EU have prepared agreements and (short term) understandings for this and some other contingencies in the event of a "no-deal" exit.

The possibility of no-deal Brexit

In June 2017, a "no-deal" Brexit was likened by General Council of the Bar, a lawyers' interest body, to "falling over the cliff-edge".[1] According to the IMF, the no deal Brexit could create economic pain across Europe, with no winner.[2] The most affected country would be UK, according to the IMF:[2] the IMF consider that UK and Ireland could lose 4% of their GDP, while close countries such as the Netherlands, Denmark and Belgium could lose 1% of GDP.[2]

As of 28 May 2018 the Speaker of the UK House of Commons proposed that while a no-deal exit on 31 October 2019 was the current default position in law it would not inevitably happen if even there was no agreement by that date with EU.[3]

In July 2019 Boris Johnson became Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party. The DExEU which had previously been responsible for no-deal planing have been refocused to concentrate on Brexit negotiations. Johnson appointed Michael Gove to the Cabinet with the responsibility for co-ordination of planning across Government Departments for a no-deal Brexit.[4] While Johnson's approach may appear to some increase the possibility or a "no-deal" Brexit, there are arguments that some aspects of his approach – such at the substantial representation of the European Research Group (ERG) in the Cabinet – may make "no-deal" less likely.[5]

United Kingdom preparedness and contingencies

See also: Brexit § Impacts

Operation Yellowhammer and the Department for Exiting the European Union (DExEU) have developed preparedness and contingencies for the event of "no-deal" exit of the United Kingdom from the EU. It is probably impossible to cover all the arrangements, preparations and contingencies application to a "no-deal" Brexit but keys areas include:

Transport systems

As of 2 April 2019 the UK government had issued 16 publications indicating advice on road, rail, air and marine transport at least most of which are applicable to the no-deal scenario.[6]

Transport links are likely to be affected by addition procedures required at border crossings, leading to possible bottlenecks and congestion.[7] Some measures were taken to mitigate the effect of possible problems, including additional Ferry capacity.[8] Additionally an enhanced plan, Operation Brock, was prepared to cope with additional traffic delays on the M20 motorway to the channel tunnel and channel ports with Operation Fennel used to manage overall traffic congestion in Kent.[9]

Any issues with train operators and driver certifications (to operate continue to operate cross-border train services) need to be resolved.[10]: 7 

A number of aviation issues exist, including pan-European air traffic control, service agreements with the EU and other countries, security regimes, and the UK's relationship with the European Aviation Safety Agency.[10]: 7  EU—UK flights should not be affected for a year following a no-deal exit,[citation needed] subject to EU and UK respecting reciprocal rights in this area. There may be some issues where a EU carrier does a point to point flight in the UK, and vice versa, but airlines and air freight carriers are aware of the issues and are understood to have contingency plans in hand to control congestion.[11]

Post-Brexit open skies agreements were reached with the US and Canada in November and December 2018 respectively.[12][13] However some sources have indicated that, despite this, new agreements would need to be enacted for air services with Canada and the US.[14] The conflict between these perspectives remains to be clarified.

Borders

The UK National Audit Office (NAO) produced the report The UK border: preparedness for EU exit update in October 2018[15] and an update in February 2019.[16] These indicated 11 out of 12 critical systems for borders would be at risk were a no-deal exit to occur on 29 March 2019.[16]: 4 [needs update]

People crossing borders

UK citizens with less than six months to a year on their passports may be advised to renew them.[7] Passports will not be required between Ireland and UK as they are in the common travel area but an International Driving Licence and Green Card may be required for UK citizens to drive in the EU.[7] Citizens from the UK would be unable to use the EU channels in EU airports.

Key goods crossing borders

It is estimated the number of Customs Declarations to be handled for goods leaving the UK would rise from the current 55 million per annum to 240 million per annum.[16]: 4 

Healthcare services

The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) has analysed supply chain, organised stockpiles and additional refrigeration warehouse space.[17] Medicines with limited shelf life cannot be stockpiled and arrangements are in place to prioritise medicines as key goods and a chartered plane is available for provisioning in necessary.[17] Each clinic and hospital needs to answer 60 questions each day as part of a sitrep (Situation Report) to confirm they will be able to continue to manage.[18] On 26 March 2016 the Minister for the DHSC indicated it was prepared for a no-deal exit.[citation needed]

UK energy and other critical systems

In the event of a no-deal exit, EU energy law will no longer apply to the UK. Continuity of supply will be prioritised. For the first 12 months until alternative trading arrangements are developed, a temporary tariff scheme will be implemented whereby imports of electrical energy would be eligible for tariff free access.[citation needed][needs update] The All-Ireland single Electricity Market will cease to have a legal basis in the event of no-deal, though alternative trading arrangements have been outlined.[19]

UK food and water supplies

In September 2018, DEFRA produced a report on Progress implementing EU Exit.[20] Issues were expected in enforcing the UK fishing area to prevent fishing by non-UK vessels.[20]: 9–10  Progress was being made getting other countries to accept UK versions of export health certificates, especially in the 15% of non-EU countries accounting for 90% of the UK's non-EU exports.[20]: 9–10  There were also concerns about insufficient veterinary staff being available to process export health certificates.[20]: 9–10 

UK Nationals in the EU (and vice versa)

The British Government intends to generally treat EU citizens already resident in the UK as per the Brexit withdrawal agreement, though there will be some variations. The UK Government is hopeful this will be reciprocated for UK Nationals in the EU.[21] The EU have published a fact-sheet detailing information for UK nationals in the EU.[22]

Law enforcement implications

Metropolitan Police Deputy assistant commissioner Richard Martin has indicated a no-deal exit and consequent loss of Europe-wide tools, databases and European Arrest Warrant would impact ability to detain foreign suspects in the UK and pursue UK fugitives in the EU.[23] The National Police Chiefs Council asked "prominent individuals" to avoid inciting anger and said 10,000 officers were ready for deployment in the UK in case of conflicts between citizens.[24]

Banking and finance industry services

A "temporary permissions regime" (TPR) has been introduced so that in the event of no-deal European Union banks, insurers and asset managers can simply notify UK financial regulators in order to continue to serve UK customers.[25]

Motor insurance

A no-deal Brexit will make UK no longer party to the Motor Insurance Directive. According to no deal preparedness plans,[which?] Green Cards will be required by for UK motorists wishing to travel to the EU and vice versa – an issue that will particularly affect both parts of Ireland.[26] As a consequence, one million Green Cards have now been sent to insurance companies and brokers in Ireland alone, as part of a prudent advance planning of a possible no-deal Brexit.[27].

Northern Ireland

See also: Brexit and the Irish border

According to the UK's highest-ranking civil servant, no-deal would result in the return of direct rule in Northern Ireland.[14]

The May administration has committed to avoiding a "hard" border[c] and honouring the Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement.[28] However, its proposed approach may violate other legal obligations and could be subject to challenge.[29][30][d]

Specific risks to oversea territories and Crown dependencies (including Gibraltar)

See also: Effect of Brexit on Gibraltar

The EU intends to define Gibraltar (in UK law, 'a British Overseas Territory') as a "Colony of the British Crown" in draft legislation about visa-less travel to the EU in a no-deal scenario.[38]

National security

Exiting the EU is expected to cause serious disruption to security relationships built up with the UK and may compromise UK national security. The difficulties are increased significantly in the event of a "no-deal" exit.[39]

Military operations

British troops currently in Bosnia as part of an EU force would need to be placed under NATO command.[14]

Tariffs

On March 13th 2019 the Department for International Trade released details of temporary tariff rates that would apply to imports if the United Kingdom leaves the EU without a deal.[40] This tariff regime would last for 12 months after exiting the EU after which it will be reviewed. The new tariffs increase the percentage of items that are tariff free from 80% to 87% with products that will become tariff free including jams, jellies and marmalade (currently 24%), oranges (currently 16%), onions (currently 9.6%), peas (currently 8%), and televisions (currently 14%).[41] However there seems to be no reason to expect these tariffs to be reciprocated and some exporters foresee complete loss of their major markets.[42]

On 22 July 2019, the (then) Trade Secretary Liam Fox said that these were short-term transitory rates and should be expected to change.[42]

Risks common to all areas

In the event of a "no-deal" exit existing legislation will be used as far as possible to cover any essential contingency measures but a power of last resort is to use the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 to introduce temporary legislation.[43] UK government departments said existing legislation is sufficient.[8]: 14 

Communications

The UK Government has needed to withdraw communication resources with regard to a no-deal exit on 23 March 2019 due to it being out of date.[44]

The EU has announced that UK residents and undertakings will be unable to register or renew .eu domain names after the withdrawal date.[45]

Data

The UK Government has issued a notice about how data protection law will work if the UK leaves the EU without a deal.[46]

EU preparedness

The European Union issued a press release on 25 March 2019 indicating it had completed preparations for an increasingly likely "no-deal" scenario on 12 April 2019. It has issued 90 preparedness notices, 3 Commission Communications, and has made 19 legislative proposals. In addition it has produced a number of factsheets for its citizens.[47]

Recasting of EU institutions

See also: 2019 European Parliament election § Planned changes after Brexit

The immediate effect of withdrawal either with or not with a ratified withdrawal treaty would be automatic ending of the UK's membership of the Council of the European Union and the European Commission, and loss of the 73 seats of the UK MEPs in the European Parliament who were elected in the May 2019 European Parliament election in the United Kingdom. The latter will require re-apportionment of those seats among the remaining member states (as is planned).

Galileo

Removal of Galileo satellite navigation infrastructure from the United Kingdom, Falklands and Ascension Islands is in the final stages of completion.[47]

Ireland

The economies of both parts of Ireland are expected to be seriously affected by a no-deal Brexit. The EU plans to ensure that the economy of the Republic of Ireland is supported through the crisis with "a huge aid package" from the contingency fund.[48] On 22 July 2019, an EU diplomat told The Times that the bloc would “spend whatever was necessary” to support the Irish government through any disruption of trade.[48] According to the then UK Brexit Secretary, Stephen Barclay, 40% of the Republic's tangibles trade with continental Europe goes via Dover/Calais, which (in a no-deal scenario) is expected to be seriously disrupted.[48]

World-wide trade winners and losers

Delivering a research study on the impact on worldwide exports to the UK, the director of international trade and commodities at UNCTAD considers that "Brexit is not only a regional affair. Once the UK has left [the EU], it will alter the ability of non-EU countries to export to the UK market".[49]

According to CNUCED (France),[50] and UNCTAD,[49] a no-deal Brexit could impact thrird countries, including in Africa. However the no-deal Brexit could provide gains to China.[49]

A no-deal Brexit could in one hand reduce EU exports to the UK by $34 billion and from Turkey by $2 billion, and on the other increase Chinese exports by $10 billion and US exports by $5 billion.[49]

A no-deal Brexit would have immediate repercussions for many developing countries’ exports, with the UNCTAD research raising the specter of significant disruption and economic harm for developing countries whose exports are highly reliant on the UK market and/or are current beneficiaries of EU preferences.[49]

Notes

  1. ^ EU citizens already resident in the UK and UK citizens already resident in the EU
  2. ^ such as long term pension commitments and previously agreed contributions to Community programmes
  3. ^ a controlled border with physical infrastructure (customs, police and SPS measures) at a limited number of authorised crossing points
  4. ^ and other sources.[31][32][33][34][35][36][37]

References

  1. ^ "The Brexit Papers: Second Edition". General Council of the Bar. Archived from the original on 14 June 2017. Retrieved 23 June 2017. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |dead-url= ignored (|url-status= suggested) (help)
  2. ^ a b c Partington, Richard (19 July 2018). "No-deal Brexit would harm EU countries as well as UK, warns IMF". The Guardian.
  3. ^ "Brexit: John Bercow says MPs will get a say over no deal". BBC. 28 May 2019. Retrieved 28 May 2019.
  4. ^ Wright, Oliver (25 July 2019). "Boris Johnson's cabinet: Feud ends as Gove is given key role in Brexit plans". The Times. Archived from the original on 25 July 2019. Retrieved 25 July 2019. {{cite news}}: Unknown parameter |dead-url= ignored (|url-status= suggested) (help)
  5. ^ Kibasi, Tom (24 July 2019). "Think Johnson's 'blue terror' reshuffle means a no-deal exit? Think again". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 25 July 2019. Retrieved 25 July 2019. {{cite news}}: Unknown parameter |dead-url= ignored (|url-status= suggested) (help)
  6. ^ "Transport – EU Exit guidance". gov.uk. Retrieved 2 April 2019.
  7. ^ a b c "Brexit: 10 ways you could be affected by no-deal". BBC. Retrieved 2 April 2019.
  8. ^ a b National Audit Office - Cabinet Office Civil Contingencies Secretariat (12 March 2019). "Contingency preparations for exiting the EU with no deal" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 15 March 2019. Retrieved 26 March 2019. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |dead-url= ignored (|url-status= suggested) (help)
  9. ^ correspondent, Lisa O'Carroll Brexit (20 March 2019). "UK's emergency plans for no-deal Brexit begin to be put into action". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Archived from the original on 20 March 2019. Retrieved 20 March 2019. {{cite news}}: |last= has generic name (help); Unknown parameter |dead-url= ignored (|url-status= suggested) (help)
  10. ^ a b National Audit Office - Comptroller and Auditor General (19 July 2018). "Report" (PDF). Department for Transport - The UK border: preparedness for EU exit.
  11. ^ Schraer, Rachel (31 March 2019). "Brexit: Will flights be disrupted?". BBC. Archived from the original on 2 April 2019. Retrieved 2 April 2019. {{cite news}}: Unknown parameter |dead-url= ignored (|url-status= suggested) (help)
  12. ^ "UK and USA reach post-Brexit open-skies accord". FlightGlobal. {{cite web}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |dead-url= (help)
  13. ^ Clark, Oliver (3 December 2018). "UK and Canada conclude post-Brexit open skies agreement". Flightglobal.com. Retrieved 7 July 2019.
  14. ^ a b c Elgot, Jessica (4 April 2019). "Ministers warned over planes and troops in no-deal Brexit". the Guardian. Retrieved 8 April 2019.
  15. ^ National Audit Office - Comptroller and Auditor General (24 October 2018). "Report" (PDF). The UK border: preparedness for EU exit.
  16. ^ a b c National Audit Office (February 2019). "Memorandum to the House of Commons Committee of Public Accounts" (PDF). The UK border: preparedness for EU exit update.
  17. ^ a b Edgington, Tom; Schraer, Rachel (23 March 2019). "No-deal Brexit: What is the UK government doing to prepare?". BBC. Archived from the original on 23 March 2019. {{cite news}}: Unknown parameter |dead-url= ignored (|url-status= suggested) (help)
  18. ^ Nick Hopkins (22 March 2019). "Secret Cabinet Office document reveals chaotic planning for no-deal Brexit". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 23 March 2019. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |dead-url= ignored (|url-status= suggested) (help)
  19. ^ "Trading electricity if there's no Brexit deal". Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy. If there’s no deal. Retrieved 2 April 2019.
  20. ^ a b c d National Audit Office - Comptroller and Auditor General (12 September 2018). "Report" (PDF). Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs - Progress in Implementing EU Exit.
  21. ^ "Policy paper: Citizens' Rights - EU citizens in the UK and UK nationals in the EU" (PDF). DExEU. Archived from the original (PDF) on 6 December 2018. Retrieved 26 March 2019. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |dead-url= ignored (|url-status= suggested) (help)
  22. ^ "The rights of UK nationals living in the EU in the event of "No deal"" (PDF). EU. Archived from the original (PDF) on 26 March 2019. Retrieved 26 March 2019. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |dead-url= ignored (|url-status= suggested) (help)
  23. ^ Dodd, Vikram (11 February 2019). "No-deal Brexit would make Britain less safe, says police chief". The Guardian. Retrieved 2 April 2019.
  24. ^ Dodd, Vikram (3 April 2019). "Police amass 10,000 officers in preparation for no-deal unrest". The Guardian. Retrieved 8 April 2019.
  25. ^ Jones, Huw (29 March 2019). "Britain gives EU banks more time for no-deal Brexit preparations". Reuters. Retrieved 2 April 2018.
  26. ^ Archer, Bimpe (28 September 2018). "More than 45 million vehicles crossing border between north and the Republic annually". The Irish News. Retrieved 23 July 2019.
  27. ^ "Clarification on the need for Green Cards". Department of Transport, Tourism and Sport (Press release). 6 March 2019. Archived from the original on 23 July 2019. {{cite press release}}: Unknown parameter |dead-url= ignored (|url-status= suggested) (help)
  28. ^ "EU Exit: Avoiding a hard border in Northern Ireland in a no deal scenario". gov.uk. 2 April 2019. Retrieved 2 April 2019.
  29. ^ "No-deal plans a bid 'to break EU unity'". Bbc.co.uk. 13 March 2019.
  30. ^ correspondent, Lisa O'Carroll Brexit; Boffey, Daniel (13 March 2019). "UK will cut most tariffs to zero in event of no-deal Brexit". Theguardian.com. {{cite web}}: |last1= has generic name (help)
  31. ^ Sandford, Alisdair (13 March 2019). "UK zero-tariff plan for no-deal Brexit would not spare some EU imports" (PDF). Euronews.com.
  32. ^ David Young and Andrew Woodcock, Press Association (14 March 1999). "No-deal Brexit: British government confirms zero tariffs on goods entering north over border". The Irish News. Retrieved 14 March 2019.
  33. ^ McCormack, Jayne (14 March 2019). "Does NI tariffs plan violate WTO law?". Bbc.co.uk.
  34. ^ Thursday; March 14; Am, 2019-05:10 (14 March 2019). "Proposed fees regime 'against WTO rules'". Irishexaminer.com. {{cite web}}: |first3= has numeric name (help)CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  35. ^ "John Downing: 'EU puts Britain in its place with two very blunt messages'". Independent.ie.
  36. ^ "EU to apply normal tariffs on trade with UK in case of no-deal Brexit". Uk.reuters.com. 13 March 2019.
  37. ^ "EU says UK no-deal Brexit tariff plan is 'illegal'". The Independent. 15 March 2019. Retrieved 15 March 2019.
  38. ^ Sánchez, Álvaro. "EU Parliament pushes out British negotiator over Gibraltar "colony" dispute". El País.
  39. ^ Bunkall, Alistair (25 January 2019). "National security will take 'years' to rebuild in event of 'no-deal' Brexit". Sky. Retrieved 2 April 2019.
  40. ^ "Temporary tariff regime for no deal Brexit published". GOV.UK. Retrieved 10 July 2019.
  41. ^ "Most imports tariff-free under no-deal plan". 13 March 2019. Retrieved 10 July 2019.
  42. ^ a b Faisal Islam (22 July 2019). "What happened to post-Brexit free-trade nirvana?". BBC News. Retrieved 25 July 2019.
  43. ^ Guyoncourt, Sally (21 March 2019). "Operation Yellowhammer: what are the Government's emergency plans for a no-deal Brexit and how would they work?". inews.co.uk. Archived from the original on 22 March 2019. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |dead-url= ignored (|url-status= suggested) (help)
  44. ^ "Promotional material Communication resources". HMRC. Retrieved 2 April 2018.
  45. ^ "Withdrawal of the United Kingdom and EU rules on .eu domain names" (PDF). Retrieved 7 April 2019.
  46. ^ "Amendments to UK data protection law in the event the UK leaves the EU without a deal on 29 March 2019". Department for Digital, Culture, Media & Sport. 13 February 2019. Archived from the original on 8 March 2019. Retrieved 26 March 2019. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |dead-url= ignored (|url-status= suggested) (help)
  47. ^ a b "Daily News – 25.03.2019". European commission Press Release Database. Archived from the original on 25 March 2019. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |dead-url= ignored (|url-status= suggested) (help)
  48. ^ a b c Wright, Oliver (22 July 2019). "EU prepares huge aid package for Ireland". The Times. Retrieved 23 July 2019.
  49. ^ a b c d e "No-deal Brexit: the trade winners and losers". UNCTAD. 9 April 2019. Retrieved 23 July 2019.
  50. ^ "Pourquoi le Brexit sans accord défendu par Boris Johnson inquiète les pays africains" (in French). Radio France Internationale. 23 July 2019. Retrieved 23 July 2019.
Cite error: A list-defined reference named "BBC-Brexit-Party" is not used in the content (see the help page).
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=No-deal_Brexit&oldid=908284611"