List of Storm Prediction Center high risk days: Difference between revisions
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Revision as of 13:32, 17 March 2021
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/7a/Evolution_of_SPC_Forecasts_Leading_to_April_14%2C_2012.png/300px-Evolution_of_SPC_Forecasts_Leading_to_April_14%2C_2012.png)
A high risk severe weather event is the greatest threat level issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) for convective weather events in the United States. High risks are issued only a few times a year when forecasters at the SPC are confident that a major severe weather outbreak, namely tornadoes and occasionally derechos, will occur on the given day. These are typically reserved for the most extreme events.[1]
Limited details are available for days before the late 1990s, and it is probable that there were additional high risk days with no online documentation, especially in the 1980s.
High Risk days
1982–1989
Thirty-four high risks were issued between 1982-1989.
Storm Prediction Center High Risk Events – 1982–1989[nb 1] | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Date | Year | Region | Tornadoes | Max rating | Peak gust | Fatalities | Outlook | Notes |
April 2 | 1982 | Midwestern US, Southern US | 61 | 30 | ![]() |
Tornado outbreak of April 2–3, 1982 - Sixty-one tornadoes touched down; one was rated F5. The first ever PDS Tornado Watch was issued on this date. | ||
December 24 | 1982 | Southern US | 26 | 3 | ![]() |
Twenty-six tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4. | ||
April 1 | 1983 | Southern US, Midwestern US | 13 | 2 | ![]() |
Thirteen tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4. | ||
July 2 | 1983 | Midwestern US[2] | 3 | 0 | ![]() |
Only three weak tornadoes touched down; one was rated F1 | ||
March 27 | 1984 | Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Texas[3] | 11 | 0 | ![]() |
Eleven weak tornadoes touched down; six were rated F1.[4] | ||
March 28 | 1984 | Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia[5][6] | 24 | 57 | ![]() |
1984 Carolinas tornado outbreak – Twenty-four tornadoes touched down; seven were rated F4. In addition to the 57 tornadic deaths, 1,249 people were injured.[7] | ||
April 26 | 1984 | Great Plains[8] | 28 | 8 | ![]() |
Twenty-eight tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4.[9] | ||
April 29 | 1984 | Midwest, Southern U.S.[10] | 42 | 1 | ![]() |
Forty-two tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4.[11] | ||
May 3 | 1984 | Southern U.S.[12][13] | 38 | 5 | Thirty-eight tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[14] | |||
October 18 | 1984 | Arkansas, Illinois, Louisiana, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas[15] | 8 | 2 | Eight tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[16] | |||
April 21 | 1985 | Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wisconsin[17] | 22 | 3 | Twenty-two tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[18] | |||
April 22 | 1985 | Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas[19] | 11 | 0 | Eleven tornadoes touched down; two were rated F2. | |||
May 11 | 1985 | Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma[20] | 24 | 0 | Twenty-four weak tornadoes touched down; three were rated F1.[21] | |||
May 13 | 1985 | Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas[22] | 14 | 0 | Fourteen tornadoes touched down; three were rated F2.[23] | |||
May 30 | 1985 | Midwest[24] | 17 | 2 | ![]() |
Seventeen tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[25] | ||
July 4 | 1985 | Midwest[26] | 3 | 0 | Mainly a wind and hail event.[27] Three weak tornadoes touched down; two were rated F1.[28] | |||
March 11 | 1986 | Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas, Oklahoma[29] | 4 | 0 | Four tornadoes touched down; one was rated F2.[30] | |||
April 19 | 1986 | Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas[31] | 13 | 1 | Fourteen tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[32] | |||
March 22 | 1987 | Oklahoma, Texas[33] | 9 | 0 | Nine tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[34] | |||
May 28 | 1987 | Texas[35] | 7 | 0 | Seven tornadoes touched down; one was rated F2.[36] | |||
July 20 | 1987 | Michigan[37] | 4 | 0 | Produced a derecho with damaging downburst winds.[38]Four weak tornadoes touched down.[39] | |||
November 16 | 1987 | Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi[40] | 28 | 0 | Twenty-eight tornadoes touched down; six were rated F2.[41] | |||
December 14 | 1987 | Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Texas[42] | 5 | 6 | Five tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[43] The F3 tornado struck the northern portions of the Memphis metropolitan area. | |||
January 19 | 1988 | Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee[44] | 14 | 5 | ![]() |
Earliest known high risk on record. Fourteen tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4.[45] | ||
March 24 | 1988 | Arkansas, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, | 10 | 0 | Damaging squall line with tornadoes.[47] Ten tornadoes touched down; three were rated F2.[48] | |||
November 4 | 1988 | Southern U.S.[49] | 18 | 0 | Eighteen tornadoes touched down; four were rated F3.[50] | |||
November 15 | 1988 | Midwest[51] | 44 | 7 | Late season tornado outbreak. Forty-four tornadoes touched down; three were rated F3.[52] | |||
November 26 | 1988 | Southern U.S.[53] | 9 | 0 | Nine tornadoes touched down; two were rated F2.[54] | |||
March 5 | 1989 | Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee[55] | 9 | 1 | Nine tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[56] | |||
May 16 | 1989 | Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico[57][58] | 20 | 1 | ![]() |
Twenty tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4.[59] | ||
May 17 | 1989 | Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[60] | 19 | 1 | Nineteen tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[61] | |||
May 24 | 1989 | Midwest[62] | 31 | 0 | ![]() |
Thirty-one tornadoes touched down; two were rated F4.[63] | ||
June 13 | 1989 | Louisiana, Texas[64] | 1 | 0 | Only one tornado touched down.[65] The high risk was issued in the 1300 UTC outlook and removed from all subsequent outlooks. | |||
November 15 | 1989 | Southern U.S.[66] | 17 | 21 | ![]() |
November 1989 tornado outbreak – Seventeen tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4.[67] |
1990–1999
Sixty-four high risks were issued between 1990-1999
Storm Prediction Center High Risk Events – 1990–1999[nb 1] | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Date | Year | Region | Tornadoes | Max rating | Peak gust | Fatalities | Outlook | Notes |
February 1 | 1990 | Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas[68] | 1 | 0 | One weak tornado touched down.[69] Only the 1200 UTC outlook included a high risk. | |||
March 14 | 1990 | Southern US[70] | 11 | 1 | ![]() |
Eleven tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[71] | ||
May 9 | 1990 | Midwest[72] | 4 | 0 | Four tornadoes touched down; two were rated F2.[73] Only the 1200 UTC outlook included a high risk. | |||
May 15 | 1990 | Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, Oklahoma[74] | 17 | 1 | Seventeen tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[75] | |||
May 20 | 1990 | Arkansas, Kansas, Oklahoma[76] | 10 | 0 | Ten tornadoes touched down; one was rated F2.[77] Only the 1900 UTC Outlook included a high risk. | |||
May 29 | 1990 | Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas[78] | 9 | 0 | Mainly a damaging wind threat.[79] Nine tornadoes touched down; one was rated F2.[80] Only the 1900 UTC Outlook included a high risk. | |||
June 1 | 1990 | Great Plains[81] | 21 | 2 | ![]() |
Twenty-one tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4.[82] | ||
June 2 | 1990 | Ohio Valley[66] | 68 | 9 | ![]() |
June 1990 Lower Ohio Valley tornado outbreak – Sixty-eight tornadoes touched down; seven were rated F4.[83] | ||
March 22 | 1991 | Midwest, Southern U.S.[84] | 23 | 6 | Twenty-three tornadoes touched down; three were rated F3.[85] | |||
March 26 | 1991 | Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma[86] | 21 | 0 | Twenty-one tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4.[87]Only the 1900 UTC Outlook included a high risk. | |||
March 27 | 1991 | Midwest[88] | 29 | 2 | Twenty-nine tornadoes touched down; six were rated F3.[89] | |||
March 28 | 1991 | Indiana, Michigan, Ohio[90] | 2 | 0 | Two weak tornadoes touched down. Only the 0100 UTC Outlook had a high risk.[91] | |||
March 29 | 1991 | Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina[92] | 21 | 0 | First and only occurrence of four consecutive high risk days. Twenty-one tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[93] | |||
April 11 | 1991 | Oklahoma, Kansas, and the Texas Panhandle[94] | 7 | 0 | Severe weather outbreak did not consolidate due to a lack of moisture and instability anticipated to develop.[66] Seven tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[95] | |||
April 12 | 1991 | Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas[66] | 24 | 0 | Twenty-four tornadoes touched down; two were rated F3.[96] | |||
April 26 | 1991 | Central U.S.[66] | 55 | 21 | ![]() |
Tornado outbreak of April 26, 1991 – Fifty-five tornadoes touched down; one was rated F5.[97] | ||
April 28 | 1991 | Eastern Oklahoma and Kansas[66] | 13 | 0 | Thunderstorm complex early in the day prevented significant moisture from moving into the region and ultimately limited severe weather activity.[98] Thirteen tornadoes touched down; two were rated F2.[99] | |||
April 19 | 1992 | Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas[100] | 4 | 0 | Four weak tornadoes touched down; three were rated F1.[101] | |||
June 16 | 1992 | Midwest[102] | 65 | 1 | ![]() |
Mid-June 1992 tornado outbreak – Sixty-five tornadoes touched down; one was rated F5.[103] | ||
June 17 | 1992 | Great Lakes[104] | 28 | 0 | Mid-June 1992 tornado outbreak – Twenty-eight tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[105] | |||
June 19 | 1992 | Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas[106] | 17 | 0 | Seventeen tornadoes touched down; three were rated F1.[107]Only the 1900 UTC Outlook included a high risk. | |||
July 2 | 1992 | Arkansas, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Wisconsin[108] | 16 | 0 | Sixteen tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[109] | |||
September 9 | 1992 | Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Missouri[110] | 4 | 0 | Only high risk ever issued in September. Squall line with damaging winds and some large hail.[111] Four weak tornadoes touched down; one was rated F1.[112] | |||
April 19 | 1993 | Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee[113] | 6 | 0 | Six tornadoes touched down; one was rated F2.[114] | |||
June 3 | 1993 | Arkansas, Illinois, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee[115] | 0 | 0 | No tornadoes touched down. The high risk was issued for a derecho. | |||
June 4 | 1993 | Kentucky, North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia[116] | 13 | 0 | Major derecho event.[117] Thirteen tornadoes touched down; 6 were rated F1.[118] Only the 1900 UTC Outlook had a high risk. | |||
June 7 | 1993 | Upper Midwest[119] | 40 | 0 | ![]() |
Forty tornadoes touched down; two were rated F4.[120] | ||
June 8 | 1993 | Great Plains, Upper Midwest[121] | 58 | 0 | Fifty-eight tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[122] | |||
June 23 | 1993 | Kansas, Nebraska[123] | 3 | 0 | Only three tornadoes touched down; one was rated F2.[124] | |||
July 3 | 1993 | Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota[125] | 13 | 0 | Thirteen weak tornadoes touched down; four were rated F1.[126] | |||
March 27 | 1994 | Southern U.S.[127] | 29 | 40 | ![]() |
1994 Palm Sunday tornado outbreak – Twenty-nine tornadoes touched down; two were rated F4.[128]Only the 1900 UTC Outlook included a high risk. | ||
April 25 | 1994 | Central U.S.[129] | 28 | 3 | ![]() |
Numerous hail reports.[citation needed] Twenty-eight tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4.[130] | ||
June 14 | 1994 | Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin[131] | 3 | 0 | Three weak tornadoes touched down; one was rated F1.[132] Only the 1200 UTC Outlook included a high risk. | |||
August 27 | 1994 | Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, South Dakota, Wisconsin[133] | 12 | 4 | Only high risk ever issued in August.[citation needed] Twelve tornadoes touched down; two were rated F3.[134] | |||
November 27 | 1994 | Southern U.S.[135] | 18 | 6 | Eighteen tornadoes touched down; four were rated F3.[136] | |||
April 17 | 1995 | Oklahoma, Texas | 21 | 0 | Primarily a derecho event. Twenty-one tornadoes touched down; two were rated F2.[137] | |||
May 7 | 1995 | Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas | 33 | 6 | Tornado outbreak sequence of May 6–27, 1995 – Day one of a 5-day event. Thirty-three tornadoes touched down; two were rated F3.[138] | |||
May 12 | 1995 | Kansas | 14 | 0 | Tornado outbreak sequence of May 6–27, 1995. Twelve tornadoes touched down; two were rated F2.[139] | |||
May 13 | 1995 | Ohio Valley | 26 | 3 | ![]() |
Tornado outbreak sequence of May 6–27, 1995 – Included a major derecho.[citation needed] Twenty-six tornadoes touched down; two were rated F4.[140] | ||
May 17 | 1995 | Kansas | 9 | 0 | Tornado outbreak sequence of May 6–27, 1995. Nine tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[141] | |||
March 18 | 1996 | Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina[142] | 21 | 0 | Twenty-one tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[143] | |||
April 19 | 1996 | Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Kentucky[144][145] | 60 | 104 mph (167 km/h) | 1 | Tornado outbreak sequence of April 1996. A total of 60 tornadoes touched down; six were rated F3.[146] | ||
May 26 | 1996 | Kansas, Oklahoma | 20 | 119 mph (192 km/h) | 0 | Also a derecho event.[citation needed] Twenty tornadoes touched down; two were rated F3.[147] | ||
March 2 | 1997 | Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi[148] | 2 | 0 | Two weak and short lived tornadoes touched down.[149] Only the 1900 UTC Outlook included a high risk. | |||
May 2 | 1997 | Mississippi, Alabama | 8 | 92 mph (148 km/h) | 1 | Also a derecho event.[citation needed] Eight tornadoes touched down; two were rated F3.[150] | ||
July 1 | 1997 | Upper Mississippi Valley | 20 | 109 mph (175 km/h) | 0 | Moderate tornado outbreak reorganized into a progressive derecho.[citation needed] Twenty tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[151] | ||
October 25 | 1997 | Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Texas[152] | 9 | 0 | Nine tornadoes touched down; four were rated F1.[153] Only the 1900 UTC Outlook included a high risk. | |||
February 10 | 1998 | Texas, Louisiana | 11 | 135 mph (217 km/h) | 0 | Rare winter serial derecho.[citation needed] Eleven tornadoes touched down; five were rated F1.[154] | ||
April 8 | 1998 | Alabama[155] | 14 | 92 mph (148 km/h) | 35 | ![]() |
Tornado outbreak of April 6–9, 1998 – F5 damage in suburban Birmingham. Fourteen tornadoes touched down; one was rated F5.[156] | |
April 15 | 1998 | Middle Mississippi Valley | 21 | 75 mph (121 km/h) | 2 | ![]() |
Tornado outbreak of April 15–16, 1998 – Day 1 of outbreak. Twenty-one tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4.[citation needed] | |
April 16 | 1998 | Tennessee | 41 | 98 mph (158 km/h) | 10 | ![]() |
Tornado outbreak of April 15–16, 1998 – Day 2 of outbreak. Forty-one tornadoes touched down; one was rated F5.[157] | |
May 9 | 1998 | Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee[158] | 5 | 0 | Five weak tornadoes touched down; one was rated F1.[159] Only the 1930 UTC Outlook included a high risk. | |||
May 31 | 1998 | Northeastern U.S.[160][161][162][163] | 42 | 128 mph (206 km/h) | 7 | ![]() |
Late-May 1998 tornado outbreak and derecho – Only high risk ever issued in the Northeast.[citation needed] Forty-two tornadoes touched down; six were rated F3.[164] | |
June 14 | 1998 | Ohio Valley | 22 | 92 mph (148 km/h) | 0 | Followed by a progressive derecho.[citation needed] Twenty-two tornadoes touched down; six were rated F1.[165] | ||
January 21 | 1999 | Arkansas[166][167] | 82 | 8 | ![]() |
Tornado outbreak of January 21–23, 1999; second earliest high risk to be issued on record.[citation needed] Eighty-two tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4.[168] | ||
March 8 | 1999 | Arkansas, Louisiana | 10 | 0 | Few tornadoes with some scattered hail and wind[citation needed] | |||
April 8 | 1999 | Iowa, Missouri, Illinois | 47 | 2 | ![]() |
Tornado outbreak of April 8–9, 1999 | ||
May 3 | 1999 | Oklahoma, Kansas[169] | 73 | 46 | ![]() |
1999 Oklahoma tornado outbreak – Highest winds ever recorded in a tornado, 301 mph (484 km/h)[170] | ||
May 4 | 1999 | Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas[169] | 43 | 1 | ![]() |
1999 Oklahoma tornado outbreak – Day 2 of outbreak | ||
May 5 | 1999 | Southern U.S. | 15 | 3 | ![]() |
1999 Oklahoma tornado outbreak – Second longest streak of consecutive high risk days. Major derecho event.[citation needed] | ||
June 5 | 1999 | South Dakota, Nebraska[171] | 21 | 0 | ![]() |
Event failed to consolidate with only isolated tornadoes and scattered severe wind reported. A shortwave ridge maintained a capping inversion.[172] |
2000–2009
There were no high risk days in 2000.
Storm Prediction Center High Risk Events – 2000–2009[nb 1][nb 2] | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Date | Year | Region | Tornadoes | Max rating | Peak gust | Fatalities | Outlook | Notes |
April 6 | 2001 | Texas Panhandle, Western Oklahoma, much of Kansas, and extreme southern Nebraska[173] | 6 | 124 mph (200 km/h)† | 1 | ![]() |
Serial derecho with widespread wind damage[citation needed] One person was killed by lightning in Ohio.[174] Six tornadoes touched down; two were rated F2.[175] | |
April 11 | 2001 | Eastern Iowa, Southern Wisconsin, and northwest Illinois[176] | 40 | 92 mph (148 km/h) | 3 | ![]() |
Tornado outbreak of April 10–11, 2001 – Three people were killed by tornadoes.[177] Forty tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[178] | |
June 11 | 2001 | Southern Minnesota, Northeastern Iowa, and West-Central Wisconsin[179] | 29 | 120 mph (190 km/h) | 2 | ![]() |
Progressive derecho with widespread wind damage. Measured thunderstorm wind gust of 120 miles per hour (193 km/h) near Atwater, Minnesota.[180] Twenty-nine tornadoes touched down; one was rated F2.[181] | |
October 13 | 2001 | U.S. Gulf Coast[182] | 32 | 112 mph (180 km/h)† | 1 | ![]() |
One person was killed by straight-line winds in Illinois.[183] Thirty-two tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[184] | |
October 24 | 2001 | Midwest[185] | 25 | 104 mph (167 km/h)† | 3 | ![]() |
North Central Indiana-Michigan tornado outbreak – Plus a major serial derecho.[citation needed] One person was killed by straight-line winds in Michigan.[186] Twenty-five tornadoes touched down; two were rated F3.[187] | |
April 16 | 2002 | Upper Midwest[188] | 14 | 85 mph (137 km/h)† | 1 | ![]() |
One person was killed by straight-line winds in Kansas.[189] Fourteen tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[190] High risk removed at 2000 UTC outlook update, prior to the initiation of the most intense severe weather. | |
July 31 | 2002 | Minnesota, Wisconsin[191] | 3 | 75 mph (121 km/h)† | 0 | ![]() |
No fatalities took place.[192] Three weak tornadoes touched down.[193] Only the 0600 UTC outlook included a high risk, the only known time in which a high risk was issued in the early morning outlook and then removed from all subsequent outlooks. | |
November 10 | 2002 | Midwest and Southern U.S.[194] | 61 | 100 mph (160 km/h)† | 32 | ![]() |
2002 Veterans Day Weekend tornado outbreak – No non-tornadic death took place.[195] Sixty-one tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4 (in Northwest Ohio, outside the high risk area - the strongest tornadoes within the high risk were rated F3). Thirty-two people were killed by the outbreak. Part of a three-day outbreak that resulted in 83 tornadoes and 36 deaths.[196] | |
December 23 | 2002 | Texas, Louisiana[197] | 15 | 70 mph (110 km/h)† | 0 | ![]() |
One of only two high risk ever issued in December[citation needed] and second latest in the year (first was December 24, 1982). No fatalities took place.[198] Fifteen tornadoes touched down; three were rated F1.[199] | |
April 6 | 2003 | Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi[200] | 18 | 83 mph (134 km/h) | 0 | ![]() |
Eighteen tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[201] | |
May 4 | 2003 | Central U.S.[202] | 85 | 89 mph (143 km/h)† | 39 | ![]() |
May 2003 tornado outbreak sequence – Eighty-five tornadoes touched down; four were rated F4.[203] | |
May 5 | 2003 | Southern U.S.[204] | 21 | 104 mph (167 km/h)† | 0 | ![]() |
May 2003 tornado outbreak sequence – Twenty-one tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[205] | |
May 8 | 2003 | Kansas, Oklahoma[206] | 43 | 104 mph (167 km/h) | 0 | ![]() |
May 2003 tornado outbreak sequence – Forty-three tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4.[207] | |
May 10 | 2003 | Central U.S.[208] | 52 | 92 mph (148 km/h)† | 0 | ![]() |
May 2003 tornado outbreak sequence – Fifty-one tornadoes touched down; four were rated F3.[209] Also included 35% tornado probability area, above the 25% minimum threshold for a high risk. | |
May 15 | 2003 | Texas, Oklahoma[210] | 47 | 92 mph (148 km/h)† | 0 | ![]() |
Forty-seven tornadoes touched down; seven were rated F2.[211] | |
March 4 | 2004 | Texas, Oklahoma[212] | 25 | 91 mph (146 km/h) | 0 | ![]() |
Reorganized into a large serial derecho[citation needed] Twenty-five tornadoes touched down; two were rated F2.[213] | |
May 22 | 2004 | Nebraska, Iowa[214] | 68 | 106 mph (171 km/h) | 1 | ![]() |
May 2004 tornado outbreak sequence – Sixty-eight tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4.[215] Second of only three known times a high risk was not issued until 0100 UTC (the other two being March 28th, 1991 and April 30, 2010). | |
May 24 | 2004 | Nebraska, Iowa[216] | 54 | 104 mph (167 km/h)† | 1 | ![]() |
May 2004 tornado outbreak sequence – Also a major derecho event.[citation needed] Fifty-four tornadoes touched down; two were rated F2.[217] | |
May 29 | 2004 | Central U.S.[218] | 80 | 90 mph (140 km/h) | 3 | ![]() |
May 2004 tornado outbreak sequence – Eighty tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4.[219] | |
May 30 | 2004 | Central U.S.[220] | 86 | 120 mph (190 km/h)† | 2 | ![]() |
May 2004 tornado outbreak sequence – Eighty-six tornadoes touched down; two were rated F3.[221] Included 35% tornado risk area above minimum threshold of 25%. | |
April 11 | 2005 | Louisiana, Mississippi[222] | 3 | 86 mph (138 km/h) | 0 | ![]() |
Three weak tornadoes touched down.[223] | |
June 4 | 2005 | Central U.S.[224] | 44 | 81 mph (130 km/h)† | 0 | ![]() |
Forty-four tornadoes touched down; one was rated F2.[225] | |
November 15 | 2005 | Midwest and Southern U.S.[226] | 49 | 98 mph (158 km/h)† | 1 | ![]() |
Mid-November 2005 tornado outbreak – Forty-nine tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4.[227] | |
March 12 | 2006 | Midwest[228] | 59 | 107 mph (172 km/h)† | 9 | ![]() |
March 2006 tornado outbreak sequence – Fifty-nine tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4.[229] One supercell storm tracked nearly 800 miles from Oklahoma to Michigan, producing many tornadoes along its path. | |
April 6 | 2006 | Nebraska, Kansas[230] | 12 | 82 mph (132 km/h) | 0 | ![]() |
Tornado outbreak of April 6–8, 2006 – Twelve tornadoes touched down; one was rated F2.[231] | |
April 7 | 2006 | Southern U.S.[232] | 47 | 92 mph (148 km/h)† | 10 | ![]() |
Tornado outbreak of April 6–8, 2006 – Outlook included a 60 percent probability of tornadoes, the highest level issued by the SPC.[233] Forty-seven tornadoes touched down; two were rated F3.[234] Also is the first of only two known occurrences (the other April 14, 2012) in which a Day 2 high risk outlook was issued. | |
March 1 | 2007 | Southern U.S.[235] | 36 | 81 mph (130 km/h)† | 20 | ![]() |
February–March 2007 tornado outbreak – Thirty-six tornadoes touched down; two were rated EF4.[236] | |
April 13 | 2007 | Texas[237] | 7 | 81 mph (130 km/h)† | 1 | ![]() |
Only seven tornadoes touched down; one was rated EF1.[238] | |
April 24 | 2007 | Texas[239] | 23 | 90 mph (140 km/h)† | 7 | ![]() |
Twenty-three tornadoes touched down; one was rated EF3.[240] | |
May 5 | 2007 | Nebraska, Kansas[241] | 90 | 100 mph (160 km/h) | 1 | ![]() |
May 2007 tornado outbreak – Ninety tornadoes touched down; two were rated EF3.[242] | |
June 7 | 2007 | Upper Midwest[243] | 12 | 81 mph (130 km/h)† | 0 | ![]() |
Reorganized into a moderate wind event[citation needed] Twelve tornadoes touched down; one was rated EF3.[244] | |
February 5 | 2008 | Middle Mississippi Valley[245] | 63 | 100 mph (160 km/h)† | 48 | ![]() |
2008 Super Tuesday tornado outbreak – Sixty-three tornadoes touched down; three were rated EF4.[246] One EF4 tornado in Arkansas tracked over 120 miles. One of only two high risk issued in January or February since January 21, 1999 continuing to present, with the other being January 22, 2017. | |
March 15 | 2008 | Georgia, South Carolina[247] | 44 | 100 mph (160 km/h)† | 2 | ![]() |
2008 Atlanta tornado outbreak – Forty-four tornadoes touched down; three were rated EF3.[248] | |
May 22 | 2008 | Kansas[249] | 28 | 100 mph (160 km/h)† | 1 | ![]() |
Tornado outbreak sequence of May 22–31, 2008 – Twenty-eight tornadoes touched down; one was rated EF3.[250] | |
May 29 | 2008 | Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota[251] | 37 | 85 mph (137 km/h)† | 0 | ![]() |
Tornado outbreak sequence of May 22–31, 2008 – Thirty-seven tornadoes touched down; two were rated EF3.[252] | |
June 5 | 2008 | Midwest[253] | 40 | 100 mph (160 km/h)† | 0 | ![]() |
Tornado outbreak sequence of June 3–11, 2008 – Forty tornadoes touched down; three were rated EF2.[254] Also including a 60% significant severe wind probability which meets high risk standards. | |
April 10 | 2009 | Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee[255] | 62 | 96 mph (154 km/h)† | 2 | ![]() |
Tornado outbreak of April 9–11, 2009 – Sixty-two tornadoes touched down; one was rated EF4.[256] | |
April 26 | 2009 | Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas[257] | 11 | 81 mph (130 km/h)† | 0 | ![]() |
Eleven tornadoes touched down; one was rated EF2.[258] Despite the maintenance of the high risk through the day, the outbreak busted as a whole. | |
† – Value is estimated |
2010–2019
There were no high risk days in 2015, 2016, or 2018. The 31 months between high risk days in June 2014 and January 2017 is the longest since at least the 1980s.
Storm Prediction Center High Risk Events – 2010-2019[nb 1] | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Date | Year | Region | Tornadoes | Max rating | Peak gust | Fatalities | Outlook | Notes |
April 24 | 2010 | Southern U.S.[259] | 39 | 120 mph (190 km/h)† | 10[260] | ![]() |
Tornado outbreak of April 22–25, 2010 – 39 tornadoes were confirmed; two were rated EF4. One tornado was the second-widest in Mississippi state history, and the fourth-longest tracked in the state. Discontinued at 01Z. | |
April 30 | 2010 | Arkansas[261] | 27 | 75 mph (121 km/h)† | 1[262] | ![]() |
Tornado outbreak of April 30 – May 2, 2010 – Day 2 of outbreak. For only the third known time a high risk was not issued until 0100 UTC (the first such occurrence was March 28, 1991) and was a slight risk for most of the day. This is the only day in which the area to eventually be in a high risk was not even in a moderate risk until 2000 UTC. 27 tornadoes touched down; two were rated EF3. | |
May 1 | 2010 | Middle Mississippi Valley[263] | 12 | 83 mph (134 km/h)† | 0 | ![]() |
Tornado outbreak of April 30 – May 2, 2010 – Only 12 weak tornadoes were confirmed. A major flood disaster also occurred from the same storm. | |
May 10 | 2010 | Oklahoma, Kansas[264] | 70 | 100 mph (160 km/h)† | 3 | ![]() |
Tornado outbreak of May 10–13, 2010 – 70 tornadoes were confirmed; two were rated EF4. | |
May 19 | 2010 | Oklahoma[265] | 24 | 70 mph (110 km/h)† | 0 | ![]() |
Twenty-four weak tornadoes were confirmed. Significant flooding occurred from the same storm system. | |
October 26 | 2010 | Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan[266] | 43 | 85 mph (137 km/h)† | 0 | ![]() |
October 2010 North American storm complex – Event set record for the deepest extratropical low over the continental US, major derecho event.[citation needed] High risk was based on 60% significant severe wind probability, with a tornado probability of 15% falling short of high risk standards. 43 tornadoes were confirmed; five were rated EF2. Discontinued at 2000 UTC as the main activity was in the morning and early afternoon. | |
April 16 | 2011 | North Carolina, Virginia[267] | 53 | 81 mph (130 km/h)† | 26 | ![]() |
Tornado outbreak of April 14–16, 2011 – 53 tornadoes touched down; six were rated EF3. Discontinued at 01Z; storms had mostly moved off the East Coast. | |
April 26 | 2011 | South-Central U.S.[268] | 58 | 110 mph (180 km/h)† | 0 | ![]() |
2011 Super Outbreak – Day 2 of outbreak. 58 tornadoes touched down; one was rated EF3. | |
April 27 | 2011 | Southern U.S.[269] | 218 | 100 mph (160 km/h)† | 317 | ![]() |
2011 Super Outbreak – Day 3 of outbreak; event set record for most tornadoes in a 24-hour period[citation needed]. Deadliest high-risk day on record; included a 45% tornado area which is above the minimum threshold for a high risk. Also produced first known watch (PDS tornado watch 235) with a >95% probability for all severe and significant severe hazards.[270] 218 tornadoes touched down; four were rated EF5. | |
May 24 | 2011 | Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas[271] | 47 | 92 mph (148 km/h)†* | 14 | ![]() |
Tornado outbreak sequence of May 21–26, 2011 – Day 4 of outbreak. Included a 45% tornado area, above minimum high risk threshold. 47 tornadoes touched down; one was rated EF5. Discontinued at 01Z. | |
May 25 | 2011 | Midwest[272] | 94 | 100 mph (160 km/h)† | 4 | ![]() |
Tornado outbreak sequence of May 21–26, 2011 – Day 5 of outbreak. 94 tornadoes touched down; one was rated EF4. Discontinued at 01Z. | |
March 2 | 2012 | Midwest and Southern U.S.[273] | 64 | 86 mph (138 km/h)† | 41 | ![]() |
Tornado outbreak of March 2–3, 2012 – Sixty-four tornadoes touched down; two were rated EF4. Discontinued at 01Z. | |
April 14 | 2012 | Central U.S.[274] | 83 | 97 mph (156 km/h) | 6 | ![]() |
Tornado outbreak of April 13–16, 2012 – Day 2 of outbreak; Second high risk to be issued on Day 2 (the day before the event; first Day 2 high risk was for April 7, 2006) and the first/only to date ever issued on the initial (0600 UTC) Day 2 outlook.[274][failed verification] Included 45% tornado probability above minimum threshold of 30%. 83 tornadoes touched down; one was rated EF4. Risk largely busted in most of Oklahoma (except far northern and western); brunt of outbreak was focused in Kansas. | |
June 12 | 2013 | Midwest[275] | 19 | 95 mph (153 km/h)† | 0 | ![]() |
June 12–13, 2013 derecho series – High risk driven by 60% significant severe wind probability, with maximum tornado probability of 15%, well short of high risk level. 19 tornadoes touched down; one was rated EF3. Discontinued at 01Z. | |
November 17 | 2013 | Midwest[276] | 73 | 85 mph (137 km/h)† | 8[277] | ![]() |
Tornado outbreak of November 17, 2013 – An unusually far north tornado outbreak; one of five high risk days during the month of November in recorded history.[278] Third latest date in the year a high risk has been issued since 2000 (the second latest was December 23, 2002 in the Deep South), and latest date a high risk has been issued in the Midwest, surpassing previous latest of November 15, 2005. Also included a high risk level (60% significant severe) wind probability in 2000 UTC outlook. 73 tornadoes touched down; two were rated EF4. Discontinued at 01Z; storms had moved east of areas that had been in a high risk. | |
April 27 | 2014 | Southwestern Arkansas[279] | 16 | 90 mph (140 km/h)† | 19 | ![]() |
Tornado outbreak of April 27–30, 2014 – Day 1 of outbreak. Small high risk area that included the cities of Little Rock, Camden, and Danville. Only one tornado touched down in the area before the high risk was discontinued in a special outlook update at 0230 UTC; this tornado was rated EF4.[280] | |
April 28 | 2014 | Alabama, Mississippi[281] | 50 | 70 mph (110 km/h)† | 16 | ![]() |
Tornado outbreak of April 27–30, 2014 – Day 2 of outbreak. Numerous long-tracked and strong to violent tornadoes across Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee. Largest tornado outbreak in central Alabama since April 27, 2011. 50 tornadoes touched down; one was rated EF4. Discontinued at 01Z.[282] | |
June 3 | 2014 | Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri[283] | 16 | 100 mph (160 km/h)† | 0 | ![]() |
Issued for 60% wind probability and potential derecho; tornado probability was 10%, well short of high risk level. Extreme hail/wind and some tornadoes reported; one tornado was rated EF3. High risk discontinued at 01Z. | |
January 22 | 2017 | Georgia, Florida[284] | 20 | 75 mph (121 km/h) | 16 | ![]() |
Tornado outbreak of January 21–23, 2017 – Day 2 of outbreak; issued for 30% tornado probability as well as 10% probability of EF2 or greater tornado (within 25 miles of a point) primarily in northern Florida and southern Georgia. Only the third known high risk day in January; first January high risk since 1999 (second earliest high risk day on record). The first high risk for Florida since March 1, 2007 20Z outlook, and the first on record for the Florida Peninsula.[285] Also the first high risk issued under the five-category system (which began in October 2014). Twenty tornadoes touched down during the day; two were rated EF3. Sixteen deaths resulted from the tornadoes. High risk discontinued at 01Z. | |
April 2 | 2017 | Texas, Louisiana[286] | 28 | 70 mph (110 km/h) | 2 | ![]() |
Issued for a 30% probability of significant tornadoes. A Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Tornado Watch was issued during the event. The high risk was eventually discontinued at 01Z, however the storm yielded twenty-eight tornadoes; six of which were rated EF2.[287] | |
April 5 | 2017 | Georgia, South Carolina[288] | 26 | 80 mph (130 km/h) | 0 | ![]() |
Issued for a 30% probability of tornadoes. PDS Tornado Watch #125 was issued just before 19Z for parts of Florida, Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina. A total of twenty-six tornadoes were confirmed, four of which were rated EF2. The high risk was discontinued at around 01Z.[289] | |
May 18 | 2017 | Kansas, Oklahoma[290] | 45 | 104 mph (167 km/h) | 0 | ![]() |
Tornado outbreak sequence of May 15–20, 2017 – Day 4 of outbreak sequence. Issued for a 30% probability of significant tornadoes. The outbreak was widely anticipated with a Moderate risk originally being issued on Day 2. PDS Tornado Watch 235 and 239 was issued for Oklahoma and Texas at 18Z and Kansas at 2030Z. A total of forty-five tornadoes were confirmed, three of which were rated EF2. The high risk was discontinued at 01Z.[291] | |
May 20 | 2019 | Oklahoma, Texas[292] | 39 | 94 mph (151 km/h) | 0 | ![]() |
Tornado outbreak sequence of May 2019 - Day 4 of outbreak. Initially issued for a 30% probability of significant tornadoes; expanded and upgraded at 1626Z for a 45% probability of significant tornadoes, exceeding the high risk criteria. This high risk produced the second known tornado watch with a >95% chance of all hazards (PDS Tornado Watch 199).[293] Despite the high parameters that were in place for the day, thirty nine tornadoes were confirmed, one of which was rated EF3. The high risk was discontinued at 06z.[294] | |
† – Value is estimated * – Peak wind gust of 151 mph (243 km/h) measured during the EF5 El Reno tornado ** – Values are preliminary and subject to change |
2020–present
There were no high risk days in 2020. So far, there has been one high risk day in 2021.
Storm Prediction Center High Risk Events – 2020-2024[nb 1] | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Date | Year | Region | Tornadoes | Max rating | Peak gust | Fatalities | Outlook | Notes |
March 17 | 2021 | Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, Arkansas[295] | TBD | TBD | 0 | Ongoing event. |
See also
Notes
- ^ a b c d e All values include events that took place outside the high risk area. Tornado and fatality totals only include incidents that occurred on the respective high risk days. Fatality totals encompass all storm-related events.
- ^ Starting on February 1, 2007, the Fujita Scale was replaced with the Enhanced Fujita Scale for rating tornadoes.
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{{cite web}}
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