Talk:2023 Nigerian presidential election

Adding Obi and/or Kwankwaso as major candidates

Right now (June 2022) I'm the main editor of this page but as the election nears, I assume this topic will become a point of contention so I'm preemptively starting the discussion now. Just by virtue of their former offices, Obi and Kwankwaso would not automatically qualify as major candidates since being former governor does not automatically make one a major candidate; however, both Obi and Kwankwaso have had considerable coverage as prominent candidates so here editors can compile sources (for or against them being listed as major) and other rationale. Watercheetah99 (talk) 18:14, 11 June 2022 (UTC)

Obi

• Discussion
  • Obi's candidacy has been recognized by INEC as one of the factors behind a recent surge in voter registration and this is also a fact that is well known on social media. Furthermore, several TV media as well as other groups discussing the topic of presidential elections regularly include Obi as a major candidate.
    • Okay, that's enough sources for me! If anyone would like to contest adding him later just comment under this. Watercheetah99 (talk) 18:14, 11 June 2022 (UTC)
  • I love this page you created. However, I do not think it is proper to refer to the Labour Party as "...smaller Labour Party...". I suggest the adjective "smaller" be removed so it does not sound biased. ProfOkeke (talk) 18:35, 11 June 2022 (UTC)
    • While I understand your point, as I said in the edit notes - we can't include Obi as a major candidate without noting why his party isn't among the major parties. Adding smaller or minor does this and I think smaller is more accurate than minor. Watercheetah99 (talk) 18:43, 11 June 2022 (UTC)

      I would like to reach speak to you on something. Can I send you an email? ProfOkeke (talk) 16:28, 16 June 2022 (UTC)

      You can just ask on my user talk page. Watercheetah99 (talk) 22:44, 16 June 2022 (UTC)

• Sources
  • Pro-major candidate sources
    • The Africa Report – May 2022
    • Business Day – June 2022
    • The Cable - June 2022
    • Arise News - June 2022
    • Channels Television (channelstv.com) – June 2022
    • Vanguard — June 2022 (1)
    • Vanguard — June 2022 (2)
    • The Nation — June 2022
    • Channels — June 2022
    • The Sun — June 2022
    • Nairametrics — July 2022
    • Premium Times — August 2022 (1)
    • Premium Times — August 2022
    • Peoples Gazette — August 2022 (2)
  • Anti-major candidate sources
    • CFR – May 2022
    • Premium Times — August 2022

Kwankwaso

• Discussion — Sources Are At The Bottom
  • @Watercheetah99 I can't see mt reply Officer2022 (talk) 16:48, 8 July 2022 (UTC)
    • What Watercheetah99 (talk) 16:51, 8 July 2022 (UTC)
  • @Watercheetah99 "Rabi'u Musa Kwankwaso, FNSE, FNIQS (born 21 October 1956) is a Nigerian politician who was the Governor of Kano state from 1999 to 2003 and 2011 to 2015. After he lost his re-election in 2003, he was appointed the first Minister of Defence of the Fourth Republic with no prior military background from 2003 to 2007, under the administration of former president Olusegun Obasanjo. He was later elected to the Senate in 2015, serving one term under the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC) representing Kano Central Senatorial District." ( Culled from wikipedia).

I am sure, from the above, you will agree with me that kwankwaso is a veteran politician and a very active one.

The followings incidents might have shed more light on this.

1. Although NNPP was an insgnificant party before Kwankwaso jumped in, there have been several decampees after he joined the party. An article published by guardian 5 days ago (I can't post links) will surely give you insight on how politicians are decamping to NNPP.

2. There were several newspaper articles published when Kwankwaso emerged NNPP presidential candidate, and those are the major newspapers we have in nigeria. Nairametrics, Punch Ng, Dailytrust, Dailypost, ICIR Nigeria, BBC Hausa, VOA Hausa, Vanguard Nigeria Premium Times, Blueprint etc.

3. Several newspaper houses interviwed kwankwaso regarding his 2023 political ambition, some of qhich are Dailypost, Channels TV, Dailytrust, and Vanguard.

4. Kwankwaso is one of the busiest presidential aspirants of 2023. From the beginning of this year yo date, he has received countless visitors to his house. There was a day he received the european ambassador to Nigeria and West Africa, you can view more of his activities on his facebook social media handle.

5. Kwankwaso is well know for his ability to form a mammoth crowd in a political gathering in any state of the federation. You can also see pictures and captions on his facebook social media handle

6. Kwankwaso is the most popular politician in Northern Nigeria, ask any northerner, he will tell you that.

7. Kwankwasiyya movement, his legacy, is the strongest political movement in Nigeria which is not strictly attached to political party. The idea behing the movement in the first place was to change the course of practicing politics in Nigeria.

8. I hope these facts suffice to enable you stop deleting our inclusion to the presidential candidate article please. Officer2022 (talk) 16:56, 8 July 2022 (UTC)

While some points make sense, none of them actually establish that he's a major candidate. The majority of coverage does not refer to Kwankwaso, instead just Tinubu, Obi, and Atiku. I'll support adding him if there is established and regular coverage of him in the same vein as Tinubu, Obi, and Atiku. Here's my responses to each point:

1. The NNPP is no longer insignificant but it is still minor with only a handful of federal legislative seats and no governors. It's in the same category as APGA right now. It is major in a few states (I included the party as major in the gubernatorial election pages for Kano and Jigawa) but not nationally.

2. Newspapers writing articles on a primary does not mean that candidate is major, plenty of articles were written about the APGA and ADC primaries. While Kwankwaso does receive a bit more coverage, it is not nearly to the level of Tinubu, Obi, and Atiku.

3. Same as point 2, interviews don't mean much when someone that's obviously a minor candidate-Hamza al-Mustapha-got interviews too.

4. Same as point 2, visitors to his house don't mean anything aside from perhaps the Ambassador but I did not see that meeting.

5. Same as point 2, crowds don't mean much - a couple hundred or thousand people in a city tells you nothing about the total support of a candidate, what about the hundreds of thousands of people that did not go to the rally. Polls show genuine approval and no polls have been released yet, hopefully some will be released in the next few weeks as primaries have ended.

6. This is complete and biased conjecture without any proof or polling.

7. Same as point 6, this is biased conjecture without any proof.

When Kwankwaso gets the level of coverage that the major candidates get or when polling is released showing him over ~5%, I will personally add him to the text box and update all context and issues paragraphs to include his perspective. Until then, I disagree with adding him as a major candidate. Watercheetah99 (talk) 17:33, 8 July 2022 (UTC)

@Watercheetah99 I know where you are going with these. You started the arguments, you brought up obi's defense, some half baked points, not even close to mine and you self-concluded that he is qualified to be a candidate. Haha Officer2022 (talk) 18:23, 8 July 2022 (UTC)

Are you arguing for Kwankwaso or against Obi? Those are two different discussions. Obi is included because of the regular coverage he receives on the level of Atiku and Tinubu—for example, race updates (1, 2, 3) that focus on those three. Kwankwaso should be included if he regularly receives that level of coverage alongside those three. And just avoid the bias nonsense, there is no better proof that I'm neutral than the fact that APC, PDP, LP, APGA, and NNPP supporters have all accused me of being bias against them — I update based on sources and have added dozens of corruption allegations against politicians to their pages including Tinubu, Yahaya Bello, Udom Gabriel Emmanuel, Abubakar Malami, Abdul'aziz Abubakar Yari, Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, Bassey Albert Akpan, and others while adding summaries to many other pages. I don't have to agree with you to make you feel more comfortable now. Watercheetah99 (talk) 18:59, 8 July 2022 (UTC)

@Watercheetah99 We do you get your sources? How can you shamelessly disguise yourself as a moderator while we know exactly who you are working for?

You think election is won on internet or twitter? Let me ask you a question, how many elected officials have joined LP from the time Obi joined the party?

Who are his associated in SE? talkless of North. Obi is no one other than a fake internet personality just like you who thinks the power to decide who gets to be a MAJOR presidential candidate is on your hands. Outside wikipedia uou are no one. you influence no one. People like you are the reason why the south still don't get it. Think about the level of your education and compare it with how the north drags you to the gutters, does that ring a bell? it is your mentality. Officer2022 (talk) 07:44, 10 July 2022 (UTC)

You clearly did not read my reply noting that I literally wrote the Pandora Papers section on Obi's page nor are you able to genuinely argue that Kwankwaso should be a major candidate without resorting to personal and regionally-based attacks. When Kwankwaso gets the level of coverage that the major candidates get or when polling is released showing him over ~5%, I will personally add him to the text box and update all context and issues paragraphs to include his perspective. Until then, leave me alone and go find something better to do with your life. Watercheetah99 (talk) 15:19, 10 July 2022 (UTC)

• Watercheetah99, your personal opinion does not determine who is a major candidate; from this discussion and the sources listed below, it is clear that Rabiu Kwankwaso is a major candidate, so, please stop undoing his inclusion. Thank you. Rotidiap (talk) 22:10, 20 August 2022 (UTC)

  Of course my opinion does not determine who is a major candidate but neither does yours. Kwankwaso should be included if he regularly receives the level of coverage alongside the three major candidates; however, he does not receive that level of coverage as the majority of coverage is on Tinubu, Obi, and Atiku. Kwankwaso picked a relative unknown as his running mate and is not included in many articles—for example, race updates (1, 2, 3) that focus on the three major candidates. When Kwankwaso gets the level of coverage that the major candidates get or when polling is released showing him around ~5%, I'll support adding him to the textbox and update the context and issues sections to include his perspective. Until then, I disagree with adding him as a major candidate. Watercheetah99 (talk) 00:21, 21 August 2022 (UTC)

  Both the pro and anti sources below are multiple, and at a point Obi and Kwankwaso were in talks about possible joint ticket, which would be unlikely if they are not both major contenders. Therefore, Kwankwaso should be given due weight in the article. Moreover, no other contributor is supporting your stand, it is 2 against 1, so I am restoring my contribution which you undid. Creating this article does not mean that you own it and I hope you do not want to edit war here. Rotidiap (talk) 15:15, 22 August 2022 (UTC)

  Kwankwaso should be included if he regularly receives the level of coverage that Tinubu, Obi, and Atiku get but he does not. This is undeniable, he does not receive the coverage that the top three get. It's not due weight if he is put on the same footing as much more significant candidates. Also this has never worked like "2 against 1" makes a difference, it's a content discussion not deciding what to eat. Plus it's pretty much a 1 vs. 1, Officer2022 is a single-purpose account that edited for two days before devolving into their biases along with personal and regionally-based attacks.

  When Kwankwaso gets the level of coverage that the major candidates get or when polling is released showing him around ~5%, I'll support adding him to the textbox. But he is not a major candidate until he can get that coverage. Watercheetah99 (talk) 15:33, 22 August 2022 (UTC)

  I have added more sources below from various publications. Rotidiap (talk) 00:36, 23 August 2022 (UTC)

• Sources
  • Pro-major Candidate Sources
    • Premium Times – April 2022 (Article asking if Kwankwaso could become a major contender)
    • Leadership – July 2022 (Article on the race that describes Atiku, Obi, Kwankwaso, and Tinubu as the "four prominent contenders")
    • ICIR – July 2022 (Article on campaign strategy that mentions Atiku, Obi, Kwankwaso, and Tinubu)
    • Peoples Gazette — July 2022 (Op-Ed on the race that that mentions Atiku, Obi, Kwankwaso, and Tinubu; however, this author says "it is difficult to project Kwankwaso being a viable contender for first place" in a later piece)
    • Independent August 2022 (Kwankwaso campaigner says Kwankwaso will win)
      • Contest: COI
    • The Cable August 2022 (Article on a conference that mentions Atiku, Obi, Kwankwaso, and Tinubu)
    • Vanguard August 2022 (Kwankwaso gives a speech)
      • Contest: COI and irrelevant
    • Business Day August 2022 (Op-Ed on the race that describes Obi, Kwankwaso, and Tinubu as "major participants")
    • BBC Pidgin June 2022 (Profile on Kwankwaso)
      • Contest: Irrelevant
    • Guardian August 2022 (Article on a bus crash at a Kwankwaso event)
      • Contest: Irrelevant
    • Premium Times August 2022 (Article on Kwankwaso campaign appointments)
      • Contest: Irrelevant
    • Punch August 2022 (Article on Kwankwaso meeting with a bishop)
      • Contest: Irrelevant
    • Daily Post June 2022 (Article on a tweet from former President Goodluck Jonathan, which congratulates 7 different parties' nominees)
      • Contest: Irrelevant
    • Daily Trust August 2022 (An NNPP press release on debates)
      • Contest: COI and irrelevant
    • The Nation June 2022 (Article asking if the NNPP could become a major player but mainly an interview with the NNPP chairman)
      • Contest: Irrelevant
    • News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) July 2022 (Another profile on Kwankwaso)
      • Contest: Irrelevant

• • Anti-major candidate sources
    • Vanguard — June 2022 (1) (Article stating "a three-horse race is looming in 2023 among Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the PDP; Mr. Peter Obi of the Labour Party, LP; and Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the ruling APC")
    • Vanguard — June 2022 (2) (Article on the search for running mates that only mentions Atiku, Obi, and Tinubu)
    • The Nation — June 2022 (Article on security policy that only mentions Atiku, Obi, and Tinubu)
    • Channels — June 2022 (Another article on the search for running mates that only mentions Atiku, Obi, and Tinubu)
    • The Sun — June 2022 (Another article stating Atiku, Obi, and Tinubu are in a "three-horse race.")
    • FP — July 2022 (Article on prominent candidates that only mentions Atiku, Obi, and Tinubu)
    • DW — July 2022 (Another article on prominent candidates that only mentions Atiku, Obi, and Tinubu)
    • Nairametrics — July 2022 (Op-Ed on the race that only mentions Atiku, Obi, and Tinubu)
    • Nairametrics — August 2022 (Op-Ed on the campaign promises that only mentions Atiku, Obi, and Tinubu)
    • Premium Times — August 2022 (1) (Article on an interview from a Tinubu surrogate, the piece describes Atiku, Obi, and Tinubu as "the three front-runners")
    • Premium Times — August 2022 (2) (Analysis on voter registration that only mentions Atiku, Obi, and Tinubu)
    • Peoples Gazette — August 2022 (1) (Analysis on the major candidates that only mentions Atiku, Obi, and Tinubu)
    • Peoples Gazette — August 2022 (2) (Op-Ed that says "it is difficult to project Kwankwaso being a viable contender for first place")

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Major candidates

There has been a disagreement over the inclusion of another candidate (Rabiu Kwankwaso) as a major candidate. One user (me) argues that Kwankwaso does not regularly receive the level of coverage that that three major candidates get and thus it would be giving undue weight to Kwankwaso to include him as a major candidate. The other user (Rotidiap) argues the opposite and thus it would actually give due weight to Kwankwaso to include him as a major candidate. Watercheetah99 (talk) 21:02, 23 August 2022 (UTC)

• Include. I know nothing about Nigerian elections and I am uncomfortable that there appear to be no established standards here. I saw a suggestion above to include this candidate if 5% polling was shown. While that has a superficial appearance of being reasonable, I believe that standard would exclude every candidate. I was unable to find any polling at all. It appears that Nigeria uses a two stage election process, and there appear to be 17 candidates in the first stage. It is at least worth asking if we should consider putting an unfiltered list in the infobox? As much as I would like to avoid Wikipedia editors attempting to pass any kind of judgement on "major" candidates, I fear putting 17 candidates in the infobox would serve our readers unacceptably poorly. I see various sources have been posted in the discussion above. However as an uninvolved editor and bot-invited RFC respondent,[1] I decided to preform an independent review of sources from scratch. My results are as follows:
  • Sources are fairly unanimous that the top two candidates are Tinubu and Abubakar. In particular Financial Times and this Reuters article only acknowledge these two.
  • Among sources that acknowledge three major candidates, the third is clearly Obi. In particular This Reuters article, United Stated Institute of Peace, This BBC article, ForeignPolicy, and Aljazeera only mention these three.
  • Among sources that acknowledge four candidates, the fourth is clearly Kwankwaso. This BBC article, Republic(Nigerian), TheConversation, TheCable(Nigerian), and Guardian(Nigerian) mention Kwankwaso as significant.
  • I found zero sources acknowledging any of the 13(?) other candidates as meaningful in any sense whatsoever. This sets a clear and neutral threshold for us to include all (four) candidates considered significant and meaningful in election coverage. Alsee (talk) 06:27, 24 August 2022 (UTC)
• Include. My position is explained here—1, 2, 3 and 4. Thank you Alsee for taking the time to do this, and thank you Watercheetah99 for taking the right step to get this resolved. Rotidiap (talk) 07:30, 24 August 2022 (UTC)
• Include, he is covered by national media like this and this. I might change my opinion if surveys or the actual poll show him with very low support. PrisonerB (talk) 12:34, 24 August 2022 (UTC)