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Revision as of 22:24, 19 August 2023

2023 Pacific hurricane season
Season summary map
Seasonal boundaries
First system formedJune 27, 2023
Last system dissipatedSeason ongoing
Strongest storm
NameHilary
 • Maximum winds145 mph (230 km/h)
(1-minute sustained)
 • Lowest pressure939 mbar (hPa; 27.73 inHg)
Seasonal statistics
Total depressions9
Total storms8
Hurricanes6
Major hurricanes
(Cat. 3+)		4
Total fatalities2 indirect
Total damageUnknown
Related articles
Pacific hurricane seasons
2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025

The 2023 Pacific hurricane season is the current Pacific hurricane season in the Northern Hemisphere. It officially began on May 15 in the eastern Pacific (east of 140°W), and on June 1 in the central Pacific (from 140°W to the International Date Line); both will end on November 30. These dates, adopted by convention, historically describe the period in each year when most tropical cyclogenesis occurs in these regions of the Pacific.[1] There was no tropical cyclone activity in the basin for the first six weeks of the season, making this one of the latest-starting seasons on record. When the first system, Hurricane Adrian, developed on June 27, it became the second-latest forming first named storm in the eastern Pacific in the satellite era (since 1971), behind only Tropical Storm Agatha in 2016.[2]

The first major hurricane of the season was Hurricane Calvin, which formed southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico, and passed just south of the Island of Hawai‘i as a tropical storm, bringing widespread rainfall to the island and to neighboring Maui. The strongest systems so far this season have been Category 4 hurricanes Dora and Hilary. Dora followed a similar track as Calvin, and passed further to the south of Hawai‘i, but at near-peak intensity. The interaction between Dora and a high-pressure area north of the Hawaiian Islands generated strong gradient winds over the islands which in turn fanned the flames of multiple devastating wildfires. Moreover, Dora became the first tropical cyclone to cross the International Date Line into the Western Pacific since Hector in 2018, and only the second on record to remain at hurricane strength across the eastern, central and western Pacific basins, along with John in 1994. Hilary is currently active off the coast of the Baja California peninsula.

Seasonal forecasts

Record Named
storms 		Hurricanes Major
hurricanes 		Ref
Average (1991–2020): 15 8 4 [3]
Record high activity: 1992: 27 2015: 16 2015: 11 [4]
Record low activity: 2010: 8 2010: 3 2003: 0 [4]
Date Source Named
storms 		Hurricanes Major
hurricanes 		Ref
May 4, 2023 SMN 16–22 7–11 3–5 [5]
May 25, 2023 NOAA 14–20 7–11 4–8 [6]
Area Named
storms		 Hurricanes Major
hurricanes		 Ref
Actual activity: EPAC 8 6 4
Actual activity: CPAC 0 0 0
Actual combined activity: 8 6 4

In advance of each Pacific hurricane season, forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Climate Prediction Center and Mexico's the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN). They include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. According to NOAA, the average eastern Pacific hurricane season between 1991 and 2020 contained roughly 15 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, with a near-normal accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index between 80 and 115.[6] Broadly speaking, ACE is a measure of the power of a tropical or subtropical storm multiplied by the length of time it existed. It is only calculated for full advisories on specific tropical and subtropical systems reaching or exceeding wind speeds of 39 mph (63 km/h). NOAA typically categorizes a season as above-average, average, or below-average based on the cumulative ACE index, but the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a hurricane season is sometimes also considered.[3]

On May 4, 2023, SMN issued its forecast for the season, forecasting a total of 16–22 named storms developing, with 7–11 hurricanes, and 3–5 major hurricanes.[5] Factors they expected to increase activity were above-average sea surface temperatures across the eastern Pacific and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remaining in the neutral phase, with the possibility of a strong El Niño developing. On May 25, 2023, NOAA issued their outlook, calling for an above-normal season with 14–20 named storms overall, 7–11 hurricanes, 4–8 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 90% to 155% of the median.[6]

Seasonal summary

For a chronological guide, see Timeline of the 2023 Pacific hurricane season.
Hurricane Hilary (2023)Hurricane Beatriz (2023)Saffir–Simpson scale
Three simultaneous active tropical cyclones in the Pacific Ocean on August 16, 2023: Tropical Storm Greg (left), Tropical Storm Fernanda (middle), and Tropical Storm Hilary (right)

The first several weeks of this Eastern Pacific hurricane season were quiet, as the first system, Hurricane Adrian, did not develop until June 27. Typically, the first named storm forms around June 10.[7] Two days later, as Adrian moved out into the open Pacific, Hurricane Beatriz formed near and tracked parallel to the Mexican coast.[8] Next came Hurricane Calvin, which formed off the southwestern coast of Mexico during the second week of July and became the first major hurricane of the season as it moved steadily west-northwestward toward Hawaii.[9] Hurricane Dora ushered in August by rapidly intensifying to a Category 4 hurricane, while also tracking toward Hawaii.[10] On August 11, Dora crossed the International Dateline to become only the second tropical cyclone on record to be at hurricane strength in the Eastern, Central and Western Pacific basins, the other being John in 1994.[11] Additionally, Dora maintained Category 4 intensity longer than any Pacific hurricane on record.[nb 1][12]

Another early August system, short-lived Tropical Storm Eugene, formed and remained well offshore Mexico.[13] It was soon followed by Category 4 Hurricane Fernanda and Tropical Storm Greg; neither system passed near land.[14] Next came Tropical Storm Hilary.

This season's ACE index as of 15:00 UTC on August 19, as calculated by Colorado State University using data from the NHC, is approximately 100.3 units.[15] This number represents sum of the squares of the maximum sustained wind speed (knots) for all named storms while they are at least tropical storm intensity, divided by 10,000. Therefore, tropical depressions are not included.[3]

Systems

Hurricane Adrian

Category 2 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationJune 27 – July 2
Peak intensity105 mph (165 km/h) (1-min);
970 mbar (hPa)

On June 23, a broad area of low pressure formed off the coast of southern Mexico, in an area which the NHC had for several days been monitoring for potential tropical development.[16] The disturbance quickly became better organized on June 27, and advisories were initiated on Tropical Storm Adrian at 21:00 UTC that same day.[17] Adrian strengthened rapidly, and became the season's first hurricane at 15:00 UTC on June 28, while located about 360 mi (580 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Colima.[18] It then reached Category 2 hurricane status on June 30, with the hurricane maintaining a distinct eye surrounded by a ring of −70 °C (−95 °F) convection on satellite.[19] Adrian reached maximum sustained winds of 105 mph (165 km/h) that day,[20] before entering an environment of stronger wind shear and cool sea surface temperatures, causing it to weaken to a tropical storm the next day. Adrian weakened to a tropical depression early on July 2,[21] and degenerated into a remnant low later that day.[22]

Hurricane Beatriz

Category 1 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationJune 29 – July 1
Peak intensity85 mph (140 km/h) (1-min);
992 mbar (hPa)
Main article: Hurricane Beatriz (2023)

An area of low pressure formed near the southwest coast of Costa Rica on June 25.[23] Slow to organize, the disturbance ultimately able to do so, becoming Tropical Depression Two‑E at 09:00 UTC on June 29.[24] Later, at 21:00 UTC, the depression became Tropical Storm Beatriz while located about 105 mi (170 km) south-southwest of Punta Maldonado, Guerrero.[25] Paralleling the coast, Beatriz was upgraded to a hurricane at 15:00 UTC the next day and soon attained peak winds of 85 mph (140 km/h). An eye began to appear on satellite around this time.[26] However, since Beatriz's circulation was severely disrupted by land interaction, the system weakened to a tropical storm early on July 1,[27] and Beatriz dissipated later that day just offshore from Cabo Corrientes, Jalisco.[28]

Due to the threat the developing system posed to southwestern Mexico, the NHC initiated advisories on it early on June 29, designating it as Potential Tropical Cyclone Two‑E.[29] One person drowned in Mazatlán, Sinaloa, on July 1, while surfing the high waves generated by Beatriz' remnants.[30]

Hurricane Calvin

Category 3 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationJuly 11 – July 19
Peak intensity125 mph (205 km/h) (1-min);
955 mbar (hPa)

An area of low pressure formed off the coast of Southern Mexico on July 7.[31] The disturbance became better organized over the course of several days, and developed a well-defined center on the afternoon of July 11, becoming Tropical Depression Three-E.[32] By early the next day, the depression had begun developing a central dense overcast, and exhibiting banding features, and so was upgraded with the 09:00 UTC advisory, becoming Tropical Storm Calvin.[33] Calvin moved westward out to sea within a favorable environment with low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures, and was upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane at 15:00 UTC on July 13.[34] It then rapidly intensified and became the season's first major hurricane at 15:00 UTC on July 14. It had a well-defined 17-mile-wide (28 km) eye at the time, with a pronounced ring of deep convection surrounding it.[35] A weakening trend began later that day, and by early on July 16, the system had fallen to tropical storm strength.[36] Still moving generally westward, the storm crossed the 140th meridian at around 15:00 UTC on July 17, thus entering the central Pacific basin; its sustained winds at the time were near 50 mph (85 km/h).[37] Then, early on July 19, Calvin passed just south of the Island of Hawaiʻi.[38] Weakened by the close encounter with land, the storm began losing its tropical characteristics. Calvin became post-tropical by 21:00 UTC on July 19.[39]

All state parks on the Big Island, as well as most of Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park, were shut beginning the afternoon of July 18, while public schools were closed for the whole of July 19.[40] Eight emergency shelters were opened across the county on July 18.[41] Calvin caused no significant damage; only minor flooding occurred in flood-prone areas of the Big Island.[42] Rainfall reached up to 7.24 in (184 mm) at Honolii Stream, while peak gusts of 72 mph (116 km/h) and 70 mph (113 km/h) were recorded on the summits of Haleakalā and Mauna Kea, respectively.[43]

Tropical Depression Four-E

Tropical depression (SSHWS)
 
DurationJuly 21 – July 22
Peak intensity35 mph (55 km/h) (1-min);
1006 mbar (hPa)

A broad low pressure area associated with a tropical wave formed south of the coast of southwestern Mexico on July 17.[44] The disturbance became better organized by July 21, and at 09:00 UTC, Tropical Depression Four-E formed southwest of the Baja California peninsula.[45] Later that day, the depression's structure began deteriorating. It soon lost all of its deep convection, and, by 15:00 UTC on July 22, had degenerated into a remnant low.[46]

Hurricane Dora

Category 4 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationJuly 31 – August 11 (exited basin)
Peak intensity145 mph (230 km/h) (1-min);
942 mbar (hPa)
See also: 2023 Hawaii wildfires

A tropical wave which the NHC had been monitoring for several days crossed over Central America into the Eastern Pacific on July 29, off the coast of El Salvador, producing a large area of rain and thunderstorms amid a favorable environment.[47] The system became better organized on July 31, and Tropical Depression Five‑E developed that afternoon.[48] Deep convection increased within the depression, and it strengthened into Tropical Storm Dora early the following day.[49] During August 2–3, Dora rapidly intensified to Category 4 strength, far to the southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Baja California Sur. Then, after undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle,[50] and weakening to a Category 3, it re-intensified to Category 4, with sustained winds reaching 140 mph (220 km/h) early on August 4. Later that day and into the next, the system weakened to Category 2, with winds dropping to 105 mph (165 km/h), before rebounding. Dora reached Category 4 for a third time on August 5, with sustained winds of 145 mph (230 km/h).[10] This re-intensification resulted in Dora acquiring annular traits,[51] displaying a symmetric 17-mile-wide (28 km) eye, surrounded by a thick ring of intense thunderstorm activity, wrapped within bands of showers and thunderstorms revolving around its core.[52] At 15:00 UTC the next day, Dora, experiencing a slight fluctuation in intensity while moving toward the west at 21 mph (33 km/h), crossed over into the Central Pacific basin.[53] Dora remained a powerful Category 4 hurricane on August 8, as it passed far to the south of the Island of Hawaiʻi with sustained winds of 130 mph (215 km/h).[54][55] Later, on the morning of August 9, Dora strengthened once again, generating winds of 145 mph (230 km/h) amid a low-shear, warm sea surface temperatures environment. It continued to display annular characteristics, with a well-defined, symmetrical 9.2-mile-wide (15 km) eye, surrounded by a compact central dense overcast of less than 120 miles (190 km) wide.[56] Late that same day, Dora's annular structure deteriorated, leaving the system susceptible to dry air intrusions.[57] During this time, the hurricane passed south of Johnston Island.[58] As a result of the change in storm structure, Dora weakened to Category 3 strength on the morning of August 10.[57] As the day progressed, southerly shear caused the hurricane's structure to begin to degrade some as it shifted its course toward the west-northwest along the southwest edge of a high pressure system.[59] At 21:00 UTC on August 11, Dora weakened to Category 2 strength about 900 mi (1,450 km) south of Midway Island.[60] Three hours later, it reached the International Date Line, exiting the Central Pacific basin, and was reclassified as Typhoon Dora.[61][62]

Though Dora did not pose a direct threat to the Hawaiian Islands, the National Weather Service in Honolulu did issue numerous weather warnings and advisories, especially red flag warnings, for portions of the various islands in expectation of the hurricane helping enhance trade winds in conjunction with an ongoing drought.[63] A steep pressure gradient between a strong anticyclone to the north of Hawaii and Dora to the south produced incredibly strong gradient winds over the islands which in turn helped cause multiple wildfires in Hawaii. The fires killed at least 114 people, all on Maui, and damaged or destroyed more than 2,200 buildings, primarily in Lahaina. The wildfires are the deadliest natural disaster in Hawaii's recorded history.[64]

Tropical Storm Eugene

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationAugust 5 – August 7
Peak intensity70 mph (110 km/h) (1-min);
992 mbar (hPa)

On August 2, the NHC first noted a tropical wave located just to the south of Guatemala, which was anticipated to produce an area of low pressure. A low-pressure area developed as predicted late the next day as the wave passed southwest of Mexico.[65] The low showed signs of organization over the following days, and around 15:00 UTC on August 5 the disturbance developed into Tropical Depression Six-E.[66] Moving northwestward near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, the cyclone began a quick strengthening trend, becoming Tropical Storm Eugene six hours later.[67] Early on August 6, what appeared on satellite imagery to be a possible eye feature was observed at the center of the storm, but soon deteriorated; Eugene's sustained winds reached 70 mph (110 km/h) at that time.[68] Later, Eugene moved over cold water west of the Baja California peninsula where its diminishing thunderstorm activity ceased, and it transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone on the afternoon of August 7.[69]

Hurricane Fernanda

Category 4 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationAugust 12 – August 17
Peak intensity130 mph (215 km/h) (1-min);
955 mbar (hPa)

On August 11, a broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave formed off the coast of southwestern Mexico.[70] A well-defined center of circulation was observed within the disturbance on the afternoon of August 12, marking the formation of Tropical Depression Seven-E in the open ocean south-southwest of the Baja California peninsula.[71] Later that same day, the steadily organizing system strengthened into Tropical Storm Fernanda.[72] Into the next day, Fernanda followed a west-northwestward course, and was displaying signs that it was intensifying, including, very cold central dense overcast cloud tops of near −112 °F (−80 °C), and a well defined upper-level outflow over the western half of its circulation.[73] When a faint eye-like feature became visible on satellite imagery that afternoon, the NHC upgraded the system to a Category 1 hurricane.[74] Thus began a period of rapid intensification, during which it became a major hurricane. By 15:00 UTC on August 14, Fernanda had intensified to Category 4 strength, with sustained winds of 130 mph (215 km/h), and was moving toward the west at 8 mph (13 km/h) away from Baja California.[75] Fernanda remained at that intensity for several hours, before falling to Category 3, while undergoing an apparent eyewall replacement cycle.[76] The system continued to exhibit signs of weakening as the day progressed, and fell below major hurricane strength by day's end.[77] The pace of structural degradation quickened on August 15, due to wind shear, cooling sea-surface temperatures, and low relative humidity levels.[78] Fernanda became a tropical storm the following morning,[79] and, by that evening, had become devoid of any convective activity.[80] Consequently, Fernanda, now far to the west-southwest of Baja California, was declared a post-tropical cyclone at 15:00 UTC on August 17.[81]

Tropical Storm Greg

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationAugust 14 – August 18
Peak intensity50 mph (85 km/h) (1-min);
1000 mbar (hPa)

On August 11, a broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave formed well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.[82] A few days later, shower and thunderstorm activity within the disturbance became better organized, and it developed a well-defined circulation. Consequently, Tropical Depression Eight‑E formed at 03:00 UTC on August 14.[83] The depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Greg six hours later. At the time, the storm was moving westward at 13 mph (20 km/h), and was about to enter the Central Pacific basin.[84] The storm strengthened some on August 15, as an inner core developed and deep convection increased near its center, a result of diminished wind shear and continued warm water temperatures.[85] The wind shear, though relatively light, proved disruptive nonetheless, displacing Greg's convection to the north of the center and causing it to pulsate.[86] This ultimately led to the system becoming increasingly disorganized late the following day.[87] Later, while south of the Island of Hawaiʻi on August 17, it weakened to a tropical depression.[88]

Hurricane Hilary

Template:Infobox weather event/CurrentTemplate:Infobox weather event/live
Hurricane Hilary
Satellite image of Hurricane Hilary
Satellite image
 Forecast map for Hurricane Hilary
Forecast map
Main article: Hurricane Hilary (2023)

On August 12, a tropical wave traversing Central America entered the far eastern Pacific, producing rain showers and thunderstorms.[89] A broad area of low pressure developed within the wave on August 14, off the southern coasts of Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador.[90] The disturbance gradually became better organized during the following day, and when a well-defined circulation along with developing convective banding features were observed on the morning of August 16, it was classified as Tropical Storm Hilary by the NHC.[91] Hilary strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane at 12:00 UTC on August 17, while located about 320 mi (515 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Colima.[92] It then proceeded to rapidly intensify, reaching Category 4 strength at 06:00 UTC on August 18.[93] By 1500 UTC that day, Hilary's intensity leveled off with sustained winds at 145 mph (230 km/h), an increase of 80 mph (130 km/h) over a 24‑hour period.[94]

Current storm information

As of 3:00 p.m. MDT (21:00 UTC) August 19, Hurricane Hilary is located within 15 nautical miles of 23°48′N 114°06′W / 23.8°N 114.1°W / 23.8; -114.1 (Hilary), about 285 mi (460 km) south-southwest of the Punta Eugenia, Mexico and about 640 mi (1,030 km) south-southeast of San Diego. Maximum sustained winds are 110 mph (175 km/h), with gusts up to 130 mph (215 km/h). The minimum barometric pressure is 959 mbar (28.32 inHg), and the system is moving north-northwest at 17 mph (28 km/h). Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 mi (70 km) from the center and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 mi (425 km).

For the latest official information, see:

Watches and warnings

Template:HurricaneWarningsTable

Storm names

See also: Tropical cyclone naming § Eastern and Central Pacific Ocean

The following list of names is being used for named storms that form in the North Pacific Ocean east of 140°W during 2023. This is the same list used in the 2017 season. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2024. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2029 season.[95][96]

  • Irwin (unused)
  • Jova (unused)
  • Kenneth (unused)
  • Lidia (unused)
  • Max (unused)
  • Norma (unused)
  • Otis (unused)
  • Pilar (unused)
  • Ramon (unused)
  • Selma (unused)
  • Todd (unused)
  • Veronica (unused)
  • Wiley (unused)
  • Xina (unused)
  • York (unused)
  • Zelda (unused)

For storms that form in the North Pacific from 140°W to the International Date Line, the names come from a series of four rotating lists. Names are used one after the other without regard to year, and when the bottom of one list is reached, the next named storm receives the name at the top of the next list.[95] The following four names are next on list for use.

  • Hone (unused)
  • Iona (unused)
  • Keli (unused)
  • Lala (unused)

Season effects

This is a table of all the storms that have formed in the 2023 Pacific hurricane season. It includes their duration, names, landfall(s), denoted in parentheses, damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident) but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a tropical wave, or a low, and all the damage figures are in 2023 USD.

Saffir–Simpson scale
TD TS C1 C2 C3 C4 C5
2023 Pacific hurricane season season statistics
Storm
name 		Dates active Storm category
at peak intensity 		Max 1-min
wind
mph (km/h) 		Min.
press.
(mbar) 		Areas affected Damage
(USD) 		Deaths Ref(s)
Adrian June 27 – July 2 Category 2 hurricane 105 (165) 970 Revillagigedo Islands None None
Beatriz June 29 – July 1 Category 1 hurricane 85 (140) 992 Western Mexico Minimal 0 (1) [30]
Calvin July 11–19 Category 3 hurricane 125 (205) 955 Hawaii Minimal None [42]
Four-E July 21–22 Tropical depression 35 (55) 1006 None None None
Dora July 31 – August 11 Category 4 hurricane 145 (230) 942 Hawaii, Johnston Atoll None None
Eugene August 5–7 Tropical storm 70 (110) 992 Southern Baja California peninsula None None
Fernanda August 12–17 Category 4 hurricane 130 (215) 955 None None None
Greg August 14–18 Tropical storm 50 (85) 1000 None None None
Hilary August 16–Present Category 4 hurricane 145 (230) 939 Western Mexico, Socorro Island, Baja California peninsula Unknown 0 (1)
Season aggregates
9 systems June 27 – Season ongoing   145 (230) 939 Minimal 0 (2)  

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Interrupted time, as Dora did temporarily weaken below Category 4 intensity for a period of time and then rebounded.

References

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  8. ^ Bellesless, Jonathan (June 30, 2023). "Hurricane Warning Issued Along Mexico's Pacific Coast For Beatriz". The Weather Channel. Retrieved June 30, 2023.
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  19. ^ Papin, Philippe (June 30, 2023). Hurricane Adrian Discussion Number 11 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 2, 2023.
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  25. ^ Berg, Robbie (June 29, 2023). Tropical Storm Beatriz Advisory Number 4 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 29, 2023.
  26. ^ Berg, Robbie (June 30, 2023). Hurricane Beatriz Discussion Number 7 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 30, 2023.
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  28. ^ Berg, Robbie (July 1, 2023). Remnants Of Beatriz Special Advisory Number 12 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 1, 2023.
  29. ^ Bucci, Lisa; Pasch, Richard (June 28, 2023). Potential Tropical Cyclone Two-E Discussion Number 1 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 29, 2023.
  30. ^ a b ""Beatriz" deja un muerto, cortes de energía e inundaciones en Mazatlán" ["Beatriz" leaves a dead man, power outages and floods in Mazatlan] (in Spanish). Expreso. July 1, 2023. Retrieved July 3, 2023.
  31. ^ Brown, Daniel (July 7, 2023). Seven-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 10, 2023.
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