Unintended consequences: Difference between revisions
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* The draining of American [[wetland]]s since colonial times, resulting in flash-flooding and seasonal droughts. |
* The draining of American [[wetland]]s since colonial times, resulting in flash-flooding and seasonal droughts. |
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* The installation of [[smokestack]]s to decrease pollution in local areas, resulting in spread of pollution at a higher altitude, and [[acid rain]] on an international scale.<ref name="Likens, G. E. 1979">Likens, G. E., R. F. Wright, J. N. Galloway and T. J. Butler. 1979. Acid rain. Sci. Amer. 241(4):43-51.</ref><ref>Likens, G. E. 1984. Acid rain: the smokestack is the “smoking gun.” Garden 8(4):12-18.</ref> |
* The installation of [[smokestack]]s to decrease pollution in local areas, resulting in spread of pollution at a higher altitude, and [[acid rain]] on an international scale.<ref name="Likens, G. E. 1979">Likens, G. E., R. F. Wright, J. N. Galloway and T. J. Butler. 1979. Acid rain. Sci. Amer. 241(4):43-51.</ref><ref>Likens, G. E. 1984. Acid rain: the smokestack is the “smoking gun.” Garden 8(4):12-18.</ref> |
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* After about 1900, public demand led the federal government to fight forest fires in the American West, and set aside land as national forests and parks to protect them from fires. This policy led to fewer fires, but led to growth conditions that made what fires did occur much larger and more damaging. Modern research suggests that this policy was misguided, and that a certain level of wildfires is a natural and important part of forest ecology.<ref name="How The Smokey Bear Effect Led To Raging Wildfires">{{cite web|last=Joyce|first=Christopher|title=How The Smokey Bear Effect Led To Raging Wildfires|url=http://www.npr.org/2012/08/23/159373691/how-the-smokey-bear-effect-led-to-raging-wildfires|work=npr.org|accessdate=27 August 2012}}</ref> |
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==See also== |
==See also== |
Revision as of 02:04, 27 August 2012
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3e/Rabbit-erosion.jpg/310px-Rabbit-erosion.jpg)
In the social sciences, unintended consequences (sometimes unanticipated consequences or unforeseen consequences) are outcomes that are not the ones intended by a purposeful action. The concept has long existed but was named and popularised in the 20th century by American sociologist Robert K. Merton.[1]
Unintended consequences can be roughly grouped into three types:
- A positive, unexpected benefit (usually referred to as luck, serendipity or a windfall).
- A negative, unexpected detriment occurring in addition to the desired effect of the policy (e.g., while irrigation schemes provide people with water for agriculture, they can increase waterborne diseases that have devastating health effects, such as schistosomiasis).
- A perverse effect contrary to what was originally intended (when an intended solution makes a problem worse), such as when a policy has a perverse incentive that causes actions opposite to what was intended.
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/99/Wiktionary-logo-en-v2.svg/40px-Wiktionary-logo-en-v2.svg.png)
History
The idea of unintended consequences dates back at least to Adam Smith, the Scottish Enlightenment, and consequentialism (judging by results).[2] However, it was the sociologist Robert K. Merton who popularized this concept in the twentieth century.[1][3][4][5]
In his 1936 paper, "The Unanticipated Consequences of Purposive Social Action", Merton tried to apply a systematic analysis to the problem of "unanticipated consequences" of "purposive social action". He emphasized that his term "purposive action… [is exclusively] concerned with 'conduct' as distinct from 'behavior.' That is, with action that involves motives and consequently a choice between various alternatives".[5] Merton also stated that "no blanket statement categorically affirming or denying the practical feasibility of all social planning is warranted."[6]
More recently, the law of unintended consequences has come to be used as an adage or idiomatic warning that an intervention in a complex system tends to create unanticipated and often undesirable outcomes.[7][8][9][10] Akin to Murphy's law, it is commonly used as a wry or humorous warning against the hubristic belief that humans can fully control the world around them.
Causes
Possible causes of unintended consequences include the world's inherent complexity (parts of a system responding to changes in the environment), perverse incentives, human stupidity, self-deception, failure to account for human nature or other cognitive or emotional biases. As a sub-component of complexity (in the scientific sense), the chaotic nature of the universe—and especially its quality of having small, apparently insignificant changes with far-reaching effects (e.g., the butterfly effect)—applies.
Robert K. Merton listed five possible causes of unanticipated consequences:[11]
- Ignorance (It is impossible to anticipate everything, thereby leading to incomplete analysis)
- Error (Incorrect analysis of the problem or following habits that worked in the past but may not apply to the current situation)
- Immediate interest, which may override long-term interests
- Basic values may require or prohibit certain actions even if the long-term result might be unfavorable (these long-term consequences may eventually cause changes in basic values)
- Self-defeating prophecy (Fear of some consequence drives people to find solutions before the problem occurs, thus the non-occurrence of the problem is not anticipated.)
Examples
Unexpected benefits
- The medieval policy of setting up large hunting reserves for the nobility has preserved green space, often as parks, throughout England and other places in Europe.[citation needed] Likewise the creation of 'no-man's lands' during the cold war, in places such as the border between Eastern and Western Europe, and the Korean Demilitarized Zone, have created large natural habitats.[12][13][14]
- The sinking of ships in shallow waters during wartime has created many artificial coral reefs, which can be scientifically valuable and have become an attraction for recreational divers.[15][16][17][18][19]
- Controversial research by John J. Donohue and Steven Levitt suggests that legalized abortion in the United States (by reducing the numbers of unwanted children), can account for much of the drop in crime rates that occurred in the 1990s. Their paper, The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime, presents evidence that states that legalized abortion before Roe v. Wade saw correspondingly earlier drops in crime; and states where abortion is common saw greater drops in crime than states where abortion is rare.[20]
- In medicine, most drugs have unintended consequences associated with their use ('side effects'). However, some are beneficial. For instance, aspirin, a pain reliever, is also an anticoagulant that can help prevent heart attacks and reduce the severity and damage from thrombotic strokes.[21] The existence of beneficial side effects also leads to off-label use—prescription or use of a drug for an unlicensed purpose.
Unexpected drawbacks
- In 1990, the Australian state of Victoria made safety helmets mandatory for all bicycle riders. While there was a reduction in the number of head injuries, there was also an unintended reduction in the number of juvenile cyclists—fewer cyclists obviously leads to fewer injuries, assuming all else being equal. Research by Vulcan et al. found that the reduction in juvenile cyclists was because the youths considered wearing a bicycle helmet unfashionable.[22] A health benefit model developed at Macquarie University in Sydney suggests that, while helmet use reduces "the risk of head or brain injury by approximately two-thirds or more", the decrease in exercise caused by reduced cycling as a result of helmets laws is counterproductive in terms of net health.[23]
- Prohibition in the 1920s United States, originally enacted to suppress the alcohol trade, drove many small-time alcohol suppliers out of business and consolidated the hold of large-scale organized crime over the illegal alcohol industry. Since alcohol was still popular, criminal organizations producing alcohol were well funded and hence also increased their other activities. Similarly, the War on Drugs, intended to suppress the illegal drug trade, instead consolidates the profitability of drug cartels.[24][25][26][27]
- Most modern technologies have negative consequences that are both unavoidable and unpredictable. For example, almost all environmental problems, from chemical pollution to global warming, are the unexpected consequences of the application of modern technologies. Traffic congestion, deaths and injuries from car accidents, air pollution, and even global warming are unintended consequences of the invention and large scale adoption of the automobile. Hospital infections are the unexpected side-effect of antibiotic resistance, and even human overpopulation is the side-effect of various technological (i.e., agricultural and industrial) revolutions.[28]
- In CIA jargon, "blowback" describes the unintended, undesirable consequences of covert operations, for example: covert funding of the Afghan Mujahideen, which contributed to the rise of Al-Qaeda.[29]
- The introduction of exotic animals and plants for food, for decorative purposes, or to control unwanted species often leads to more harm than good done by the introduced species.
- The introduction of rabbits in Australia and New Zealand for food was followed by an explosive growth in the rabbit population; rabbits have become a major feral pest in these countries.[30][31]
- Cane toads, introduced into Australia to control canefield pests, were unsuccessful and have become a major pest in their own right.
- Kudzu, introduced as an ornamental plant and later used to prevent erosion in earthworks, has become a major problem in the Southeastern United States. Kudzu has displaced native plants, and has effectively taken over significant portions of land.[32][33]
- Africanized bee: In 1957, while searching for an increase in honey production, Warwick E. Kerr accidentally released Africanized bees in Brazil. The "especially defensive" Africanized bee species expanded into the north and south Americas.[citation needed]
Perverse results
- The term Streisand Effect is applied to the internet phenomenon that occurs when an attempt to censor or remove a certain piece of information (such as a photograph, document, etc.) instead causes the information to become widely known and distributed.[34] The fact that a piece of information is being restricted assigns to it a previously nonexistent value in the eyes of the public.
- The stiffening of penalties for driving while intoxicated in the United States in the 1980s led, at first, to an increase in hit and run accidents, most of which were believed to have been drunken drivers trying to escape the law.[citation needed] Legislators later stiffened penalties for leaving the scene of an accident.
- Rent control in many major cities is intended to make housing more accessible for lower income tenants. However, most economists believe it can reduce the quantity and quality of housing.[35] Landlords often circumvent the rent control by extracting bribes in the form of key money.
- Theobald Mathew's temperance campaign in 19th-century Ireland (in which thousands of people vowed never to drink alcohol again) led to the consumption of diethyl ether, a much more dangerous intoxicant, by those unwilling to break their pledge.[36]
- It was thought that adding south facing conservatories to British houses would reduce energy consumption by providing extra insulation and warmth from the sun. However, people tended to use the conservatories as living areas, installing heating and ultimately increasing overall energy consumption.[37]
- Public policy produces many unintended consequences, and one celebrated example in the UK National Health Service is the policy that patients arriving at accident and emergency centres must be treated within a define period after entry. During busy periods this has led to patients being made to wait outside in the ambulances in which they arrived, leaving the long wait time problem unsolved but removing the ambulances from service.[citation needed]
Unintended consequences of economic intervention
Economic legislation can produce results contrary to its intended effect. Examples include:
- The War on Drugs (see above).
- The "Welfare State" is criticized for fostering dependency on tax-funded hand-outs, as well as being integral to runaway "Big Government".
- Anti-price-gouging legislation interferes with efficient market-allocation of scarce resources, preventing necessary information feed-back. (See Opposition to laws against price gouging.)
Unintended consequences of environmental intervention
In ecology, deliberate changes to an ecosystem can have unintended consequences, when these effects escape the control of those who introduced them. Examples include:
- The introduction of DDT as a pesticide, which led to the accumulation of the chemical in birds, interfering with their reproduction or killing them (cite sources).
- The introduction of rabbits to Australia by Europeans, which became economically and environmentally damaging, as the rabbits had no natural predators.
- The draining of American wetlands since colonial times, resulting in flash-flooding and seasonal droughts.
- The installation of smokestacks to decrease pollution in local areas, resulting in spread of pollution at a higher altitude, and acid rain on an international scale.[38][39]
- After about 1900, public demand led the federal government to fight forest fires in the American West, and set aside land as national forests and parks to protect them from fires. This policy led to fewer fires, but led to growth conditions that made what fires did occur much larger and more damaging. Modern research suggests that this policy was misguided, and that a certain level of wildfires is a natural and important part of forest ecology.[40]
See also
- Relevance paradox
- Boomerang effect (psychology)
- Side effect
- The road to hell is paved with good intentions
Notes
- ^ a b Robert K. Merton, Versatile Sociologist and Father of the Focus Group, Dies at 92, Michael T. Kaufman, New York Times.
- ^ Adam Smith The Theory of Moral Sentiments p. 93.
- ^ Renowned Columbia Sociologist and National Medal of Science Winner Robert K. Merton Dies at 92 Columbia News
- ^ Robert K. Merton Remembered Footnotes, American Sociological Association
- ^ a b Merton, Robert K. "The Unanticipated Consequences of Purposive Social Action". American Sociological Review. 1 (6): 895. Retrieved 2008-05-30.
- ^ Merton, Robert K. "The Unanticipated Consequences of Purposive Social Action". American Sociological Review. 1 (6): 904. Retrieved 2008-05-30.
- ^ Norton, Rob. "Unintended Consequences". Concise Encyclopedia of Economics. Library of Economics and Liberty. Retrieved 7 May 2010.
- ^ "HeinOnline". HeinOnline. Retrieved 2010-05-07.
- ^ http://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage?collection=journals&handle=hein.journals/flsulr28&div=36&id=&page=
- ^ "HeinOnline". HeinOnline. Retrieved 2010-05-07.
- ^ Merton, Robert K. On Social Structure and Science. The University of Chicago Press, 1996. http://www.press.uchicago.edu/cgi-bin/hfs.cgi/00/13087.ctl
- ^ "From Iron Curtain to Green Belt: How new life came to the death strip". London: Independent.co.uk. 2009-05-17. Retrieved 2010-05-07.
- ^ Kate Connolly (2009-07-04). "From Iron Curtain to Green Belt". London: Guardian. Retrieved 2010-05-07.
- ^ "European Green Belt". European Green Belt. Retrieved 2010-05-07.
- ^ "Maryland Artificial Reef Initiative Celebrates 1 Year Anniversary". Dnr.maryland.gov. 2008-02-07. Retrieved 2010-05-07.
- ^ 4:00 p.m. ET (2007-05-25). "Sinking ships will boost tourism, group says - News- msnbc.com". MSNBC. Retrieved 2010-05-07.
{{cite web}}
: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) - ^ "Life after death on the ocean floor - The National Newspaper". Thenational.ae. 2009-09-21. Retrieved 2010-05-07.
- ^ "Sea Life Flourishing On Vandenberg Wreck Off Keys". cbs4.com. 2009-10-15. Retrieved 2010-05-07.
- ^ "CDNN :: Diver Wants to Sink Old Navy Ships off California Coast". Cdnn.info. 2006-12-27. Retrieved 2010-05-07.
- ^ Donohue, John J. (May 2001). "The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime". Quarterly Journal of Economics. 116 (2). MIT: 379–420. doi:10.1162/00335530151144050.
{{cite journal}}
: Unknown parameter|coauthors=
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suggested) (help) - ^ "BBC 15 February 2001, Aspirin heart warning". BBC News. 2001-02-15. Retrieved 2010-05-07.
- ^ Cameron, M (1994). "Mandatory bicycle helmet use following a decade of helmet promotion in Victoria, Australia—an evaluation". Accident Analysis and Prevention. 26 (3): 325–327. doi:10.1016/0001-4575(94)90006-X. PMID 8011045.
{{cite journal}}
: Unknown parameter|coauthors=
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suggested) (help); Unknown parameter|month=
ignored (help) - ^ "Evaluating the Health Benefit of Mandatory Bicycle Helmet Laws, Piet De Jong, Macquarie University - Actuarial Studies, 26 October 2009". Papers.ssrn.com. Retrieved 2010-05-07.
- ^ Juan Forero, "Colombia's Coca Survives U.S. plan to uproot it", The New York Times, August 19, 2006
- ^ Don Podesta and Douglas Farah, "Drug Policy in Andes Called Failure," Washington Post, March 27, 1993
- ^ Dominic Streatfeild, "Source Material for Cocaine: An Unauthorized Biography: Interview between Milton Friedman and Dominic Streatfeild", June 2000 [1]
- ^ "An open letter". Prohibition Costs. Retrieved 2008-02-20.
- ^ *Huesemann, Michael H., and Joyce A. Huesemann (2011). Technofix: Why Technology Won’t Save Us or the Environment, Chapter 1, “The Inherent Unavoidability and Unpredictability of Unintended Consequences”, and Chapter 2, “Some Unintended Consequences of Modern Technology”, New Society Publishers, Gabriola Island, British Columbia, Canada, ISBN 0865717044, 464 pp
- ^ MSNBC article on Bin Laden and blowback
Atlantic magazine article: "Blowback"
Observer article: Why 'blowback' is the hidden danger of war - ^ "The State Barrier Fence of Western Australia". The State Barrier Fence Project. Retrieved 2009-10-09.
- ^ "Rabbits: Introduction into New Zealand". Christchurch City Libraries. Retrieved 2009-10-09.
- ^ Molly McElroy (2005). "Fast-growing kudzu making inroads in Illinois, authorities warn". News Bureau, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Retrieved April 28, 2008.
- ^ Richard J. Blaustein (2001). "Kudzu's invasion into Southern United States life and culture" (PDF). United States Department of Agriculture. Retrieved August 20, 2007.
- ^ Canton, David. "Today's Business Law: Attempt to suppress can backfire", London Free Press, November 5, 2005. Retrieved July 21, 2007. The "Streisand effect" is what happens when someone tries to suppress something and the opposite occurs. The act of suppressing it raises the profile, making it much more well known than it ever would have been".
- ^ Gregory Mankiw. "2". Principles of Economics (4th ed.). p. 31.
Chart shows that 93% of economists agree with the statement: "a ceiling on rents reduces the quality and quantity of housing available"
- ^ World Wide Words: Etheromaniac
- ^ "Our innate ability to think of new ways to use energy" Professor Tadj Oreszczyn. Summer 2009 edition of ‘palette’, UCL’s journal of sustainable cities.
- ^ Likens, G. E., R. F. Wright, J. N. Galloway and T. J. Butler. 1979. Acid rain. Sci. Amer. 241(4):43-51.
- ^ Likens, G. E. 1984. Acid rain: the smokestack is the “smoking gun.” Garden 8(4):12-18.
- ^ Joyce, Christopher. "How The Smokey Bear Effect Led To Raging Wildfires". npr.org. Retrieved 27 August 2012.
References
- Abuse proof prescription-painkillers may spur heroin habit
- The Unanticipated Consequences of Purposive Social Action by Robert K. Merton, American Sociological Review, Vol 1 Issue 6, Dec 1936, pp. 894–904
- Unintended Consequences entry in Concise Encyclopedia of Economics
- Museum of Unintended Consequences
- Unintended Consequences of Green Technologies
- Huesemann, Michael H., and Joyce A. Huesemann (2011). Technofix: Why Technology Won’t Save Us or the Environment, Chapter 1, “The Inherent Unavoidability and Unpredictability of Unintended Consequences”, Chapter 2, “Some Unintended Consequences of Modern Technology”, and Chapter 4, “In Search of Solutions I: Counter-Technologies and Social Fixes”, New Society Publishers, Gabriola Island, British Columbia, Canada, ISBN 0865717044, 464 pp.
- Edward Tenner, Why Things Bite Back: Technology and the Revenge of Unintended Consequences, Vantage Books, 1997.
- Tomislav V. Kovandzic, John Sloan III, and Lynne M. Vieraitis. Unintended Consequences of Politically Popular Sentencing Policy: The Homicide-Promoting Effects of 'Three Strikes' in U.S. Cities (1980–1999). Criminology & Public Policy, Vol 1, Issue 3, July 2002.
- Vulcan, A.P., Cameron, M.H. & Heiman, L., "Evaluation of mandatory bicycle helmet use in Victoria, Australia", 36th Annual Conference Proceedings, Association for the Advancement of Automotive Medicine, October 5–7, 1992.
- Vulcan, A.P., Cameron, M.H. & Watson, W.L., "Mandatory Bicycle Helmet Use: Experience in Victoria, Australia", World Journal of Surgery, Vol. 16, No.3, (May/June 1992), pp. 389–397.
- "Hidden Costs of Energy: Unpriced Consequences of Energy Production and Use"