2006 Victorian state election

2006 Victorian state election major party leaders
Liberal		Labor
File:Robert Doyle.jpg		File:Steve Bracks.jpg
Robert Doyle Opposition Leader		Steve Bracks Premier of Victoria
Age	52	Age	51
Parliament	14 years	Parliament	12 years
Leader since	2002	Leader since	1999
District	Malvern	District	Williamstown
Profession	Teacher	Profession	Teacher
Spouse	Separated	Spouse	Terry Bracks

The state election for the 56th Parliament of Victoria is scheduled for 25 November 2006. Just under 3 million Victorians will elect 88 members to the Legislative Assembly and, for the first time, 40 members to the Legislative Council under a proportional representation system. The party or coalition that wins the majority of seats in the Legislative Assembly will form the new government of Victoria.

The Australian Labor Party government of Premier Steve Bracks, first elected in 1999, is seeking a third consecutive term. It is pitted against the Liberal Party of Australia opposition of Robert Doyle and its traditional coalition partner, the National Party of Australia.

Minor parties are expected to make major showings at this election. According to some analysts, the Victorian Greens party could win the balance of power in the Legislative Council if it repeats its 2002 state election polling.

Key dates

Terms are now fixed at four years. Key dates for the election are:

• 7 Nov 2006 Close of rolls
• 10 Nov 2006 Close of nominations
• 25 Nov 2006 Election day

Victoria's system of government

Main article: Government of Victoria

Composition of the Parliament of Victoria
Political Party	Legislative Assembly	Legislative Council
Labor	62	24
Liberal	17	14
National	7	4
Independent	2	2
Source: Victorian Electoral Commission

Victoria has a parliamentary form of government based on the Westminster System. Legislative power resides in the Parliament consisting of the Governor (the representative of the Queen), the executive (the Government), and two legislative chambers. While Queen Elizabeth II is Victoria's head of state, it is in practice a ceremonial role.

The Parliament of Victoria consists of the lower house Legislative Assembly, the upper house Legislative Council and the Queen of Australia. Eighty-eight members of the Legislative Assembly are elected to four-year terms from single-member electorates. The Legislative Council consists of 44 members elected to eight-year terms from 22 two-member electorates. Legislative Council elections are staggered so that half the members face election every four years.

The Premier of Victoria is the leader of the political party or coalition with the most seats in the Legislative Assembly. The Premier is the public face of government and, with Cabinet, sets the legislative and political agenda. Cabinet consists of representatives elected to either house of parliament. It is responsible for managing areas of government reserved for the states by the Australian Constitution, such as education, health and law enforcement.

The Governor of Victoria has a ceremonial role representing Queen Elizabeth II. The post is usually filled by a retired prominent Victorian. The governor acts on the advice of the Premier and Cabinet.

Victoria has a written constitution. Enacted in 1975, but based on the 1855 colonial constitution, it establishes the parliament as the state's supreme law-making body. The Victorian Constitution can be amended by the parliament without voter approval.

Electoral Districts and Regions

File:Vic inner regions.jpg

This map shows the lower house districts covering metropolitan Melbourne. The districts are grouped to form five upper house regions.

This map shows the lower house districts covering regional Victoria. The districts are each grouped to form three upper house regions.

Parliament of Victoria

Legislative Assembly

The Legislative Assembly, or lower house, is the chamber of government in the Parliament of Victoria. It consists of 88 members directly elected under a preferential voting system. The state is divided into 88 electorates called districts for voting purposes. Each district consists of approximately 38,000 eligible voters. After the 2002 state election, the ALP held 62 seats, the Liberals 17 and the Nationals 7. Two seats are held by independent members.

The table belows lists all 88 districts alphabetically, including the sitting members, their party affiliation and the swing required for members to lose their seats. Also included are the corresponding Legislative Council regions and former provinces.

For detailed results see: Results of the Victorian legislative election, 2006

Marginal seats

Marginal seats are those lower house districts that are the most tightly contested. A marginal seat's sitting member won that seat at the previous election by only a small margin. opposition candidates therefore have a greater chance of winning the seat at the upcoming election. There is no universal definition for a marginal seat. For Victorian purposes, anything below a 3% to 4% margin is a reasonable indication that a seat is marginal.

The table below lists the 20 most marginal seats in Victoria. It shows how once strong seats, such as Sandringham for the Liberals and Richmond for the ALP, can become marginal over time. Seat margins do not always change because of dissatisfication with sitting members. New political players may emerge. Also, redistribution can change voting trends in the seat. For example, the once strong inner city ALP districts of Melbourne and Richmond are now marginal because of the unexpected success of the Victorian Greens at the 2002 election. Many safe Liberal seats, such as Bass and Mount Waverley, are now marginal because redistricting in 2002 increased the number of ALP voters in the seats.

Marginal seats of the Legislative Assembly of the 55th Parliament of Victoria				Result in previous elections and winning margin
District		Sitting Member	Political Party	2002	1999	1996	1992
	Nepean^	Martin Dixon	Liberal Party of Australia	0.18%	6.2%	8.1%	12.0%
	Evelyn	Heather McTaggart	Australian Labor Party	0.34%	9.5%	12.2%	15.2%
	Bass^	Ken Smith	Liberal Party of Australia	0.65%	*	12.6%	17.9%
	South-West Coast	Dennis Napthine	Liberal Party of Australia	0.75%	N/A	N/A	N/A
	Doncaster	Victor Perton	Liberal Party of Australia	0.78%	13.3%	15.0%	18.2%
	Hastings	Rosy Buchanan	Australian Labor Party	0.86%	N/A	N/A	N/A
	Box Hill	Robert Clark	Liberal Party of Australia	1.10%	7.6%	10.3%	13.2%
	Gembrook^	Tammy Lobato	Australian Labor Party	1.59%	6.5%	11.1%	13.3%
	Mornington	Robin Cooper	Liberal Party of Australia	1.83%	5.7%	11.3%	13.0%
	Melbourne	Bronwyn Pike	Australian Labor Party	0.34%	13.8%	15.9%	12.1%
	Benalla	Bill Sykes	National Party of Australia	1.98%	7.4%	15.3%	20.8%
	Kilsyth^	Dympna Beard	Australian Labor Party	2.10%	10.9%	12.2%	10.1%
	Caulfield	Helen Shardey	Liberal Party of Australia	2.26%	8.5%	9.3%	13.2%
	Ferntree Gully^	Anne Eckstein	Australian Labor Party	2.29%	7.3%	7.9%	6.1%
	Mount Waverley^	Maxine Morand	Australian Labor Party	2.30%	13.2%	15.7%	19.5%
	Bulleen	Nicholas Kotsiras	Liberal Party of Australia	2.65%	11.6%	14.6%	17.5%
	Bayswater	Peter Lockwood	Australian Labor Party	2.75%	4.7%	7.1%	7.1%
	Sandringham	Murray Thompson	Liberal Party of Australia	3.04%	12.5%	14.3%	19.9%
	Richmond	Richard Wynne	Australian Labor Party	3.10%	16.2%	17.3%	13.3%
	Scoresby^	Kim Wells	Liberal Party of Australia	3.33%	11.9%	13.1%	14.1%
^ Seat created in 2002; results are for previous equivalent seat. * Won by independent; no two-party margin. N/A New seat; no electoral history. Source: Victorian Electoral Commission

Legislative Council

Under the new structure of the Legislative Council, the number of members will drop from 44 to 40 after this election. This has introduced considerable competition within all parties for preselection for Legislative Council seats. The balance in the current Legislative Council is ALP 24, Liberals 14, Nationals 4 and 2 independents.

Major Parties

It is not certain that the ALP will retain their majority in the Legislative Council.

Minor Parties

Based on 2002 state election results, The Greens are considered likely to win a seat in the Northern Metropolitan and Southern Metropolitan regions. There is also a possibility they may win a seat in the Eastern Metropolitan Region.

Opinion polls

Voting intention

The tables below list voting intentions for the 2006 election. Conducted by Roy Morgan Research and Newspoll/The Australian, the surveys asked approximately 1000 voters each month: "If a State election were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?" The table also includes the two-party preferred vote.

File:Roymorgan logo.JPG	Victorian state voting intention
	Political parties							Two-party preferred
	File:Labor logo.JPG	File:Liberals logo.JPG	File:Nationals logo.jpg	File:Greens logo.JPG	File:Democrats logo.JPG	File:Familyfirst logo.JPG	Other parties/ independents	File:Labor logo.JPG	File:Lnpcoalition logo.JPG
2002 Election	47.9%	33.9%	4.3%	9.7%	0.1%	N/A	4.1%	57.8%	42.2%
April 2006	48.5%	31.5%	2%	8%	2%	3%	5%	59.5%	40.5%
March 2006	46%	35%	2%	8%	2%	3%	4%	58%	42%
February 2006	48%	32%	2.5%	7.5%	2.5%	2.5%	5%	60%	40%
January 2006	48%	33.5%	2.5%	7.5%	2.5%	2%	4%	59%	41%
December 2005	43.5%	34.5%	2%	12%	1.5%	2.5%	4%	57.5%	42.5%
November 2005	47.5%	32%	3%	8.5%	2%	2.5%	4.5%	59%	41%
October 2005	50%	32%	3%	7%	1.5%	3%	3.5%	60.5%	39.5%
September 2005	44.5%	35%	2.5%	8%	1.5%	3%	5.5%	55.5%	44.5%
August 2005	47%	36%	2.5%	7%	1%	2.5%	4%	57%	43%
July 2005	45.5%	37%	2.5%	6.5%	2%	2%	4.5%	55%	45%
June 2005	43.5%	36%	2.5%	9.5%	1.5%	3%	4%	55.5%	44.5%
May 2005	46.5%	35.5%	3%	7%	1.5%	2.5%	4%	57	43%
Source: Roy Morgan Research N/A Family First did not contest 2002 election.

File:Newspoll logo2.JPG	Victorian state voting intention
	Political parties					Two-party preferred
	File:Labor logo.JPG	File:Liberals logo.JPG	File:Nationals logo.jpg	File:Greens logo.JPG	Other parties/ independents	File:Labor logo.JPG	File:Lnpcoalition logo.JPG
2002 Election	47.9%	33.9%	4.3%	9.7%	4.1%	57.8%	42.2%
March/April 2006	44%	34%	4%	7%	11%	56%	44%
January/February 2006	44%	36%	4%	5%	11%	56%	44%
November/December 2005	41%	36%	4%	7%	12%	54%	46%
September/October 2005	43%	38%	3%	6%	11%	55%	45%
July/August 2005	42%	38%	3%	6%	11%	54%	46%
May/June 2005	44%	35%	3%	9%	9%	56%	44%
Source: Newspoll/The Australian

Analysis of Morgan Poll conducted on 4 March 2006

The Morgan Poll on 4 March 2006 found that ALP support rose 1.5% from January to 60.5%. This translated to a significant lead of 21% over the L-NP (39.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. With primary support for the Liberal Party was declining, if a Victorian State Election had been held in February, the ALP would have won easily. Primary support for the Greens was 7.5% (unchanged), Australian Democrats 2.5% (unchanged), National Party 2.5% (unchanged), Family First 2.5% (up 0.5%) and Independent Candidates and Other Parties 5% (up 1%)

Parties

Australian Labor Party - Victorian Branch

Tim Pallas will enter Parliament in November. Pallas, Premier Steve Bracks' chief of staff, defeated Labor parliamentary secretary Mary Gillett for Labor preselection for the safe seat of Tarneit.

Labor's State cabinet has been criticised for being old, complacent, top heavy and stale with major decisions on channel deepening, gaming machine licences and the full report of the State Services Authority into the troubled Rural Ambulance Victoria being delayed until after the election.

Liberal-National Coalition

Liberal leader Robert Doyle stated he would be willing to have coalition talks with the Nationals after the election. The two conservative parties have acknowledged they would try to form a coalition if that was necessary to defeat Labor.

But tensions have emerged between the coalition partners over issues such as the Liberal policy of halving tolls on the EastLink freeway. Nationals leader Peter Ryan has stated that his party did not back the policy, because it would mean public money was spent on motorists in Melbourne's eastern suburbs, at the expense of services for country Victorians.

Liberal Party of Australia - Victorian Division

During March 2006, Phil Honeywood, the Deputy Opposition Leader, then Victor Perton both announced they would not contest the next election. This contributed to ongoing speculation about Robert Doyle's leadership, during which Ted Baillieu emerged as a possible challenger. Tensions between the Liberal factions were largely resolved with the appointment of Louise Asher as deputy opposition leader, with Doyle retaining the leadership unchallenged.

Robert Doyle's media director Rob Clancy's resignation became public on 26 April 2006, two weeks after his chief of staff Ron Wilson left for a job in the private sector. The Liberal Party state president Helen Kroger is another Doyle supporter who is moving on. This string of resignations has raised questions about the strength of Doyle's team in the lead up to the election. In response, Doyle has denied that people were leaving because they did not think the party could win the election and that the resignations did not reflect well on the Liberals.

National Party of Australia - Victoria

The National Party's leader in Victoria is Peter Ryan. With declining voter support over the last two Victorian state elections and the abolition of the National seat of Wimmera, the National Party almost lost its parliamentary party status in the 2002 State Election. They enter the 2006 election with 12 seats (7 in the Legislative Assembly and 5 in the Legislative Council).

Australian Greens - Victoria

Greg Barber, former City of Yarra mayor, won Greens preselection to contest contest a seat in the upper house region of Northern Metropolitan, where the Greens are considered most to likely win their first seat in the Victorian Parliament.

Sue Pennicuik, a co-covener of the state party, was preselected for the Southern Metropolitan region.

Bill Pemberton and Marcus Ward were preselected for the Eastern and Western Metropolitan regions respectively.

Based on the Greens' vote at the 2002 election the party would have picked up a seat in both the Northern and Southern Metropolitan regions. Political experts believe that the Greens may hold the balance of power after the next state election.

Australian Democrats (Victorian Division)

After a fairly quiet campaign in the 2002 state election, the Democrats experienced a significant decrease in votes, despite concentrating their efforts on the upper house. After poor results in the 2006 South Australian election, and not contesting the 2006 Tasmanian election, their intentions regarding the 2006 Victorian election are not currently known.

Independents

The two current independent lower house MPs, Russell Savage (Gippsland East) and Craig Ingram (Mildura) both hold their seats by comfortable margins and are therefore highly likely to be re-elected.

Other parties and groups

Other parties registered in Victoria that may field candidates include:

• Citizens Electoral Council (Victorian Division)
• Democratic Labor Party (DLP) of Australia
• Socialist Alliance (Victoria)
• Country Alliance

People Power, a group formed in 2000 by Vern Hughes and Stephen Mayne, has announced an intention to field a team of candidates for both lower and upper house seats . This group is not currently registered as a political party but has announced intentions to run candidates for both the upper and lower houses.

Family First announced Cameron Eastman as their lead candidate and spokesperson for the election. Eastman works in a civilian capacity for the Victoria Police and will contest the upper house region of Eastern Victoria. Eastman stated that the party had no hidden agendas, despite being labelled an arm of the Christian Right movement. "There's no formal structural approach to churches in any way," he said. He also stated that Family First's Victorian campaign would include a strong anti-gambling stance and would raise concerns about hospital waiting lists and the sale of public assets.

The Campaign

By April 2006, Labor still has not formally launched their campaign to retain office. However, the Bracks government has been criticised for spending about $9 million on a taxpayer-funded pre-election television advertising blitz promoting its record in the politically sensitive areas of hospitals, police, schools, major projects, the rural economy and programs such as "Our Water Our Future". Robert Doyle stated that "this is using our money to promote Steve Bracks and the Labor Party. If the ALP want to promote themselves, let them spend their own money — not yours and mine". Premier Steve Bracks defended the advertisements, stating "the Government has regularly run ads to highlight the work of and recruit new teachers, police and nurses as well as encourage business investment in Victoria".

The Nationals then the Liberals launch their campaigns seperately

The state leader of the Nationals, Peter Ryan, used his opening address to the Nationals' annual conference held on 7 April 2006 at the All Seasons "quality resort" in Bendigo to "officially" launch his party's campaign. Prior to the launch, Ryan stated that the National party will support the introduction of minimum prison sentences for serious crimes to ensure that sentences more accurately reflect community expectations . At the launch, Ryan stressed the importance of the family unit and traditional values, and criticised Melbourne Labor for its lack of vision and the decision to pre-select city-based candidates to contest Upper House seats in country areas.

Opposition Leader Robert Doyle launched the Liberals' campaign on Sunday 9 April at the Hawthorn campus of Melbourne University Private. Doyle unveiled a policy to reintroduce a 10 per cent speed zone tolerance, replacing the 3 km/h tolerance enforced by Labor, to make speed cameras more visible and to abolish bonus payments to speed camera operators who book large numbers of drivers. Acting premier John Thwaites said the policy was dangerous, stating that "We all know that speeding causes deaths, and yet the Opposition is now giving a green light for people to speed".

People Power pop up

Peter Allan, a People Power candidate for the upper house, stated on 18 April 2006 that they will be running an anti-poker machine platform under the umbrella of their party . They are apparently hoping to emulate the success of "no-pokies" candidates Nick Xenophon and Anne Bressington at the recent South Australian election.

The Government announces water saving strategies, but its environmental credentials are criticised

Victorian Environment Minister John Thwaites unveiled the Government's draft water strategy on 20 April 2006. The strategy aims to take some pressure off over-stressed rivers through tougher water-saving targets and fines for individuals. With demand in Melbourne and elsewhere expected to outstrip supply within 15 years, water is emerging prominant environmental issue of the campaign. Opposition spokesman David Davis said the Government's promise to flush an extra 20 billion litres into the Yarra was "a very small drop in the river", and called for more action to clean up the polluted river.

The Wilderness Society and the Australian Conservation Foundation have also criticised the Bracks Government's continued support for logging of water catchments as a contributing factor to the looming water shortage . Clearfell logging and woodchipping of Victorian forests has also been linked to the destruction of critical habitat for threatened species such as Leadbeater's possum, Victoria’s endangered faunal emblem .

The Bracks Government raised the ire of environment groups in September 2005 with its decision to to expand Hazelwood power station's operations to at least 2031. This decision was labelled "as an environmental tragedy that will be fought through legal action" due to Hazelwood being Australia’s worst climate change polluting power station. Marcus Godhino from Environment Victoria stated “this is a gutless, tragic decision by Steve Bracks. Hazelwood was the Premier’s number one environmental test. He has now failed.” Greenpeace and the Australian Conservation Foundation also strongly criticised the decision.

The impending privatisation and sale of the Snowy River Hydro scheme by the Victorian and NSW governments has been criticised, amid concerns that the environmental flows to both the Snowy and Murray rivers may be compromised .

Environment groups such as the Clean Ocean Foundation and the State Opposition have called for greater transparency about the water quality near the sewage outfall at Boag's Rocks, near Gunnamatta surf beach on the Mornington Peninsula, and have stated that effluent from the outfall has caused a health and environment crisis. The State Government has refused early release of the results of water tests at the beach, even though a growing number of people have fallen ill after surfing there. Environment and Water Minister John Thwaites said the results of tests by Melbourne Water would not be released until the end of the year .

Some directions for Labor's campaign are revealed

The Victorian ALP's draft policy platform "Rising to the Challenges" partly revealed the direction a third-term re-elected Bracks Labor Government would take. The platform includes as priorities encouraging the greater use of public transport, replacing hundreds of old school buildings and legalising abortion. Labor would also promise public interest statements on all future public-private partnerships and include a value-for-money comparison with full public funding. The door is left open to public-private partnerships to rebuild old schools. It would consider payroll tax exemptions as an incentive to employers to offer 14 weeks paid maternity leave and push for two weeks paternity leave. Nuclear energy would be banned, and Labor would accelerate the development of renewable energy technologies. The platform also allows room for more new toll roads but rules out tolls on existing roads. The platform commits Labor to maintaining a minimum budget surplus of $100 million and to closely manage "recurrent expenditure".

In an apparent shift of focus from building new freeways and tollways, the Government's long-awaited transport and liveability statement concentrating on outer suburbs is referenced and "the [pressing] need for a quantum leap in funding for public transport" is mentioned. Under health, the platform commits the Labor Party to reducing waiting times for emergency treatment, elective surgery and dental care. The draft platform will be debated by the party's state conference in May, after which the Government would then "develop the specific election commitments it will put to Victorian voters at the historic first fixed-term election" on November 25, 2006, Mr Bracks wrote .

An independent champions gay marriage

Gay marriage may become a state election issue as independent MP Andrew Olexander pushes for his private member’s bill on the issue to be debated before the November poll. Olexander, who is gay, was expelled from the Liberal Party last year after crashing his taxpayer-funded car while drunk. He subsequently publicly accused his party of being homophobic .

Melbourne 2030 strategy becomes a battleground

Ted Baillieu, the opposition planning spokesman stated that the Bracks Government's metropolitan planning blueprint Melbourne 2030 would be scrapped and the power of the planning appeals tribunal wound back under a state Liberal Government, although the Urban Growth Boundary would be retained.

Residents groups such us Save Our Suburbs have been campaigning against development proposals linked to the 2030 Blueprint, such as the proposed high-rise Mitcham towers and the redevelopment of Camberwell railway station. While SOS had been a qualified supporter of 2030, president Ian Quick said the Government had failed to deliver on 2030 promises such as investing in public transport, stating "just about everybody agrees with the majority of 2030 principles, but the principles just aren't being translated into reality".