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2022–23 Australian region cyclone season

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This is an old revision of this page, as edited by André L P Souza (talk | contribs) at 22:16, 16 January 2023 (→‎Systems: update. Tropical Disturbance 05F has returned to the basin of the BOM and is ongoing). The present address (URL) is a permanent link to this revision, which may differ significantly from the current revision.

2022–23 Australian region cyclone season
Season summary map
Seasonal boundaries
First system formed26 July 2022
Last system dissipatedSeason ongoing
Strongest storm
NameDarian
 • Maximum winds220 km/h (140 mph)
(10-minute sustained)
 • Lowest pressure920 hPa (mbar)
Seasonal statistics
Tropical lows8
Tropical cyclones3
Severe tropical cyclones1
Total fatalitiesNone
Total damageNone
Related articles
Australian region tropical cyclone seasons
2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25

The 2022–23 Australian region cyclone season is the period of the year when most tropical cyclones form in the Southern Indian Ocean and Pacific Oceans between 90°E and 160°E. The season officially started on 1 November 2022 and will finish on 30 April 2023, however, a tropical cyclone could form at any time between 1 July 2022 and 30 June 2023 and would count towards the season total. During the season, tropical cyclones will be officially monitored by one of the three tropical cyclone warning centres (TCWCs) for the region which are operated by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, National Weather Service of Papua New Guinea and the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics. The United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and other national meteorological services including Météo-France and the Fiji Meteorological Service will also monitor the basin during the season.

Season forecasts

Region Chance
of more 		Average
number
Whole 73% 11
Western 69% 7
North-Western 70% 5
Northern 61% 3
Eastern 74% 4
Western South Pacific 65% 4
Eastern South Pacific 43% 6
Source: BoM's Seasonal Outlooks for Tropical Cyclones.[1][2]

During October 2022, Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), New Zealand's MetService, and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) issued its tropical cyclone outlook for the 2022–23 season.[3] The outlook called for an above-average number of tropical cyclones for the 2022–23 season, with eleven tropical cyclones, predicted to occur.[1] For the Australian region, the BoM predicted that the season would feature, only a 73% chance of more tropical cyclones.[1] For the Western region, it was predicted that activity would be above average, with a 69% chance of tropical cyclone activity.[1] The northern region and northwestern subregion would also see fewer tropical cyclones, with only a 61% and 70% chance of more tropical cyclones than average.[1]

The BoM issued two seasonal forecasts for the Southern Pacific Ocean, for their self-defined eastern and western regions of the South Pacific Ocean.[2] They predicted that the South-West Pacific region between 142.5°E and 165°E, had a 65% chance of seeing activity above its average of 4 tropical cyclones.[2] The BoM also predicted that the South-East Pacific region between 165°E and 120°W, had a 43% chance of seeing activity above its average of 6 tropical cyclones.[2]

Climate models also suggest that El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will return to neutral conditions in 2023.[1] The BoM noted that sea surface temperature anomalies across the equatorial Indian Ocean.[4] Warmer-than-average waters are expected to persist to the north of Australia for the next three months, increasing the likelihood of tropical cyclones.[1] The BoM also predicted that the Eastern Region had a 74% chance of seeing activity above its average of 4 tropical cyclones.[1] These outlooks accounted included the state of the ENSO.[1] A higher average risk of tropical cyclones was also predicted by NIWA for nations east of the International Date Line.[3]

Season summary

Tropical cyclone scales#Comparisons across basins

A tropical low formed on 26 July and was later designated as 01U, an exceptionally early start to the season.[5] The system attained tropical-storm-force winds and persistent deep convection for a couple of days before wind shear began to increase. In-post analysis, 01U was upgraded to a Category 1 tropical cyclone (Australian scale). In November, tropical low 02U was designated by the BoM and encountered marginally favorable conditions. The low was upgraded to Tropical Cyclone 04S by JTWC after tropical-storm-force winds were found.[6] Later in the month, a tropical low formed and was a long-lived system before dissipating on 26 November.[7] There was also another tropical low that formed in the Gulf of Carpentaria but did not develop further.[8] In December, tropical low 05U formed, and was given the name Darian after intensifying into a Category 1 Tropical Cyclone. On 19 December, it became the first Severe Tropical Cyclone of the season. Throughout the day, the storm unexpectedly entered very favorable conditions, and underwent rapid intensification. It reached category 5 on the BoM's scale the next day, and peaked as a category 4 on the SSHWS scale, later exiting into the South-west Indian Ocean Basin. Later that month, a tropical low formed, later intensifying into a Category 1 Tropical Cyclone and was named Ellie. Ellie then later crossed the Northern Territory coast, making landfall at a sparsely populated location southwest of Daly River at 13:30 UTC (11:00 pm ACST).[9][10] Shortly after the landfall, the JTWC discontinued warnings on the system.[11] The next day, the BoM's released its last bulletin on Ellie, as the system weakened into a tropical low.[12] However, Ellie remained traceable,[13] as it moved southwest towards the Western Australia region throughout the rest of December.[14] The BoM then gave the tropical low a moderate chance of redeveloping into a tropical cyclone on 1 January.[15] The storm then moved southeast and further weakened as it moved inland once again.[16] On 6 January, the BoM stated that Tropical Low 07U formed from a monsoon trough over northeastern Australia. The JTWC later upgraded it to a Category 1 Tropical Cyclone (Australian Scale), and dubbed it as Cyclone 07P. However, the BoM did not upgrade the system due to lacking a well-defined center. 07U later moved into the South Pacific basin and was named Hale.

Systems

Tropical Cyclone 01U

Category 1 tropical cyclone (Australian scale)
Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
Duration26 July – 31 July
Peak intensity85 km/h (50 mph) (10-min);
993 hPa (mbar)
See also: List of off-season Australian region tropical cyclones

On 26 July, the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) reported that a tropical low had formed due to an increase in monsoonal storm activity during the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO).[17][5] Deep convection became more pronounced and organized with an upper-level trough around the center.[5] By 15:00 UTC on 28 July, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) for the disturbance.[18] The system was located in a favorable environment, with sea surface temperatures ranging from 28 to 30 degrees Celsius, and the JTWC issued their first warning on the storm six hours later as Tropical Cyclone 01S.[19] During post-storm analysis from the BoM, the system was upgraded into a Category 1 tropical cyclone on 29 July, although it remained unnamed.[5] 01U reached peak intensity with maximum 10-sustained winds of 85 km/h (50 mph).[5] At 09:00 UTC on 31 July, the JTWC issued their final warning on the system.[20] Later that day, 01U completely dissipated.[5] The cyclone did not have any impacts on the Cocos Islands despite its period of strong winds, which were less than gale-force.[5]

Tropical Low 02U

Tropical low (Australian scale)
Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
Duration1 November – 5 November (Exited basin)
Peak intensity65 km/h (40 mph) (1-min);
1004 hPa (mbar)

On 1 November, the BoM began tracking a tropical low to the northwestern of the region.[21] Satellite imagery revealed that the system was displaced from its center of circulation.[22] Environmental conditions were assessed by the BoM as being unfavorable for significant intensification of the system.[23] The system was assigned the official identifier code 02U.[24] Over the past twelve hours, the system has improved.[24] At 03:00 UTC on 3 November, the JTWC issued a TCFA, after noting its obscure low-level circulation center (LLCC).[25] Later that day, the JTWC subsequently initiated advisories on the system and classified it as Tropical Cyclone 04S.[26][6] The system had a broad and fully exposed LLCC, although there has been some increased thunderstorm activity associated with the system.[27] The BoM's stopped tracking the system.[28][29] The system briefly crossed into the South-West Indian Ocean basin on 5 November.[30]

Severe Tropical Cyclone Darian

Category 5 severe tropical cyclone (Australian scale)
Category 4 tropical cyclone (SSHWS)
 
Duration13 December – 21 December (Exited basin)
Peak intensity220 km/h (140 mph) (10-min);
920 hPa (mbar)

On 13 December, the BoM reported that Tropical Low 05U had formed approximately 170 km (110 mi) north of Cocos Islands, initially forecast to not develop further due to not conducive conditions.[31] However, over the next 5 days, conditions improved, with vertical wind shear decreasing.[32] At 11:30 UTC on 17 December, satellite imagery showed a partially exposed low-level center embedded in deep convection, prompting the JTWC's to issue a TCFA.[33] On the next day, the system strengthened into a Category 1-cyclone on the Australian scale, with BoM naming it Darian.[34] Later that day, the JTWC's subsequently initiated advisories on the system and classified it as Tropical Cyclone 05S.[35] The BoM's assessed the cyclone to have strengthened into a Category 2-cyclone on 19 December and later to Category 3-cyclone on the bureau's scale.[36][37] By 15:00 UTC, the JTWC upgraded Darian to a Category 1-equivalent cyclone on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale (SSHWS), with maximum 1-sustained winds of 140 km/h (85 mph).[38]

Darian then strengthened to Category 3-equivalent cyclone after having consistent low wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures and good upper-level poleward outflow, which led to the storm having a symmetric 23 nautical miles (43 km; 26 mi) eye.[39] The cyclone quickly intensified, and was upgraded to a Category 4-cyclone by the BoM's.[40] Similarly, the JTWC's further upgraded Darian into a Category 4-equivalent cyclone around 21:00 UTC, while exhibiting some annular characteristics.[41] Darian continued to rapidly intensify, and reached Category 5-severe tropical cyclone on the Australian scale at 00:00 UTC on 21 December.[42][43] Later that day, it exited the basin and moved into the South-West Indian Ocean basin.[44]

Tropical Cyclone Ellie

Category 1 tropical cyclone (Australian scale)
Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
Duration20 December – 8 January
Peak intensity75 km/h (45 mph) (10-min);
986 hPa (mbar)

On 20 December, the BoM reported that a tropical low was slowly developing over the Timor Sea.[45] Initially located in a favorable environment for intensification, the disturbance began to encounter somewhat improved conditions.[46] Satellite imagery indicated an improvement in the structure of the disturbance, with the system displaying an increase in flaring deep convection.[47] The JTWC issued a TCFA for the system at 02:00 UTC on 22 December.[48] The low was assigned the official identifier code 06U.[49] By 09:00 UTC, the JTWC subsequently designated the storm as Tropical Cyclone 06S, citing that convection quickly became better organized and more concentrated around the broad center.[50] Later that day, the BoM's reported that the tropical low had developed into a Category 1-cyclone on the Australian scale and named it Ellie.[51] Ellie then later crossed the Northern Territory (NT) coast, making landfall at a sparsely populated location southwest of Daly River at 13:30 UTC (11:00 pm ACST).[52][53] Shortly after the landfall, the JTWC discontinued warnings on the system.[54] The next day, the BoM's released its last bulletin on Ellie, as the system weakened into a tropical low.[55] However, Ellie remained traceable,[56] as it moved southwest towards the Western Australia region throughout the rest of December.[57] The BoM then gave the tropical low a moderate chance of redeveloping into a tropical cyclone on 1 January.[58] However, they later downgraded its chances of redeveloping into very low, as the storm turned southeast further inland and was weakening.[59] The cyclone, then referred to as "ex-Tropical Cyclone Ellie", turned back into the Northern Territory on around 7 January,[60] and was then last noted on 8 January, well inland about 130 km (81 mi) southeast of Rabbit Flat.[61]

In anticipation of Ellie, the BoM issued a tropical cyclone warning for the coast of Western Australia and Northern Territory.[62] The cyclone mainly caused torrential rainfall and gale-force wind gusts along the Top End as it became a tropical cyclone.[63] Timber Creek experienced an "once in 50 years" flooding as the cyclone moved through the town by 24 December.[64] As Ellie moved over western Australia, it dumped heavy rainfall over the region, with the Fitzroy River having 15.81 m (622 in) of rainfall, surpassing its 2002 record of 13.95 m (549 in).[65][66] By January, the river was 50 km (31 mi) wide in some parts.[67] Flooding continued into January, with WA Emergency Services Minister, Stephen Dawson, saying that it was a "once in a century" flood crisis.[68] Infrastructure was damaged and remote Indigenous communities completely cut off. Defence personnel were deployed to the Kimberley region in WA, three RAAF aircraft were provided to evacuate residents, and five helicopters were despatched to help with the crisis.[67] Hardship payments were made by the state, territory and Commonwealth governments,[60] and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese promised "massive infrastructure investment" when he visited the area afterwards.[67]

Tropical Low 07U (Hale)

Tropical low (Australian scale)
Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
Duration6 January – 7 January (Exited basin)
Peak intensity75 km/h (45 mph) (10-min);
994 hPa (mbar)

By 31 December, the BoM noted the potential of a tropical low forming over the Coral Sea, as the monsoon was forecast to strengthen further over the region.[69] Three days later, the agency put a low chance for the potential low to develop into a tropical cyclone in the region.[70] By 6 January, the BoM reported that Tropical Low 07U had developed approximately 190 km (120 mi) to the north-northeast of Townsville in Queensland.[71] The JTWC gave it a medium chance to develop into a tropical cyclone,[72] before issuing a TCFA saying that the chance for the system to develop into a tropical cyclone was high 8 hours later.[73] With a favorable environment of low wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and good radial outflow, the system intensified into a tropical cyclone late on the same day according to the JTWC, and designating it as 07P.[74] The BoM did not upgrade 07U as such, citing that its center was elongated northwest to the southeast.[75] 07U then later exited the basin and moved into the South Pacific basin.[76]

Tropical Low 08U (05F)

Tropical low
 
Duration16 January 2023 (Entered the area of ​​responsibility of the BoM) – Ongoing
Peak intensityWinds not specified;

On 13 January, the BoM noted the potential of a tropical low forming in the eastern Coral Sea.[77] By the next day, the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) designated the potential low as Tropical Disturbance 05F, while it was still in the BoM's area of responsibility.[78] 05F briefly entered the South Pacific basin on 15 January,[79] before subsequently moving back into the region late by the same day.[80] On 16 January, the BoM upgraded 05F into a weak tropical low, and was detected in the eastern Coral Sea off the coast of Queensland.[81] [82]

Other systems

On 15 November, the BoM reported a weak tropical low near southern Indonesia.[83] The JTWC released a TCFA stating that the low could intensify soon and called it Invest 94S.[7] The next day, the JTWC canceled its TCFA and lowered its chances to low.[84][better source needed] It it continued to move eastwards before being last noted on 26 November.

On 30 November, the BoM reported that a weak tropical low had developed along a trough over central Gulf of Carpentaria.[8] It generally moved southeast before being last noted by BoM on 2 December, near the western Cape York Peninsula.[85]

Storm names

Bureau of Meteorology

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (TCWC Melbourne) monitors all tropical cyclones that form within the Australian region, including any within the areas of responsibility of TCWC Jakarta or TCWC Port Moresby.[86] Should a tropical low reach tropical cyclone strength within the BoM's area of responsibility, it will be assigned the next name from the following naming list.

  • Darian
  • Ellie
  • Freddy (unused)
  • Gabrielle (unused)
  • Herman (unused)
  • Ilsa (unused)
  • Jasper (unused)
  • Kirrily (unused)
  • Lincoln (unused)
  • Megan (unused)
  • Neville (unused)
  • Olga (unused)

TCWC Jakarta

TCWC Jakarta monitors Tropical Cyclones from the Equator to 11S and from 90E to 145E. Should a Tropical Depression reach Tropical Cyclone strength within TCWC Jakarta's Area of Responsibility then it will be assigned the next name from the following list.[86]

  • Anggrek (unused)
  • Bakung (unused)
  • Cempaka (unused)
  • Dahlia (unused)
  • Flamboyan (unused)
  • Lili (unused)

TCWC Port Moresby

Tropical cyclones that develop north of 11°S between 151°E and 160°E are assigned names by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. Tropical cyclone formation in this area is rare, with no cyclones being named in it since 2007.[87] As names are assigned in a random order, the whole list is shown below:

  • Hibu (unused)
  • Ila (unused)
  • Kama (unused)
  • Lobu (unused)
  • Maila (unused)
  • Alu (unused)
  • Buri (unused)
  • Dodo (unused)
  • Emau (unused)
  • Fere (unused)

Season effects

2022–23 Australian region cyclone season
Name Dates Peak intensity Areas affected Damage
(US$) 		Deaths
Category Wind speed
(km/h (mph)) 		Pressure
(hPa)
01U 26–31 Jul Category 1 tropical cyclone 85 (50) 993 Cocos Islands None 0
02U 1–5 Nov Tropical low Not specified 1004 None None 0
TL 15–26 Nov Tropical low Not specified 1004 Christmas Island None 0
TL 30 Nov – 2 Dec Tropical low Not specified 1001 Cape York Peninsula None 0
Darian 13–21 Dec Category 5 severe tropical cyclone 220 (140) 920 Cocos Islands None 0
Ellie 20 Dec – 8 Jan Category 1 tropical cyclone 75 (45) 986 Northern Territory, Western Australia Unknown 0
07U (Hale) 6–7 Jan Tropical low 75 (45) 994 None None 0
05F 16 Jan – Present Tropical low Not specified 1006 None None 0
Season aggregates
8 systems 26 Jul – Present 220 (140) 920 None 0

See also

References

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