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Hurricane Hilary

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Template:Infobox weather event/CurrentTemplate:Infobox weather event/live
Hurricane Hilary
Satellite image of Hurricane Hilary
Satellite image
 Forecast map for Hurricane Hilary
Forecast map
Part of the 2023 Pacific hurricane season

Hurricane Hilary is a weakening tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, currently paralleling the Baja California peninsula. The storm is forecast to bring record rainfall, catastrophic flooding and gusty winds to the peninsula and to parts of the Southwestern United States.[1][2][3] The eighth named storm, sixth hurricane, and fourth major hurricane of the 2023 Pacific hurricane season, Hilary originated from a disturbance south of the southern coast of Mexico associated with a tropical wave that entered the far eastern Pacific Ocean from Central America on August 12.

Meteorological history

Map plotting the storm's track and intensity, according to the Saffir–Simpson scale
Map key
Saffir–Simpson scale
  Tropical depression (≤38 mph, ≤62 km/h)
  Tropical storm (39–73 mph, 63–118 km/h)
  Category 1 (74–95 mph, 119–153 km/h)
  Category 2 (96–110 mph, 154–177 km/h)
  Category 3 (111–129 mph, 178–208 km/h)
  Category 4 (130–156 mph, 209–251 km/h)
  Category 5 (≥157 mph, ≥252 km/h)
  Unknown
Storm type
triangle Extratropical cyclone, remnant low, tropical disturbance, or monsoon depression

On August 12, a tropical wave traversing Central America producing widespread rain showers and thunderstorms entered the far eastern Pacific.[4] A broad area of low pressure developed within the wave on August 14, off the southern coasts of Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador.[5] The disturbance gradually became better organized during the following day, and when a well-defined circulation along with developing convective banding features were observed on the morning of August 16, it was classified as Tropical Storm Hilary by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).[6] Convection near the storm's center increased as the day progressed, dense overcast started to develop over the growing storm as a result, and an eye began to form at its center.[7] Consequently, Hilary quickly strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane by 12:00 UTC on August 17, while located about 320 mi (515 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Colima.[8] Deep convection intensified beneath the system's cloud tops, which had cooled to below −112 °F (−80 °C), and its expanding upper-level outflow pattern became symmetric.[9] Hilary continued to rapidly intensify, reaching Category 4 strength at 06:00 UTC on August 18.[10]

By 15:00 UTC that day, Hilary's intensity leveled off with sustained winds at 145 mph (230 km/h), an increase of 80 mph (130 km/h) over a 24‑hour period.[11] Hilary benefited from exceptional conditions during its intensification phase, with sea-surface temperatures of near 86 °F (30 °C), low wind shear, and high relative humidity levels.[12] The hurricane initially tracked west-northwestward, then toward the northwest during this time, responding to the steering influences of a trough of low pressure to its north near the California coast and a ridge of high pressure over the central United States.[9][11][12] As those influences began drawing Hilary north-northwestward on the morning of August 19, asymmetrical convective patterns developed as the deep convection on the west side of the system was being eroded by an intrusion of dry and stable air. This caused the hurricane to weaken to Category 3 strength, with winds of 125 mph (205 km/h).[13]

Current storm information

Timelapse of Hurricane Hilary as imaged by the GOES-18 Advanced Baseline imager in simulated true color from 12:30 UTC August 17 through 22:07 UTC August 18

As of 03:00 p.m. MDT (21:00 UTC) August 19, Hurricane Hilary is located within 15 nautical miles of 23°48′N 114°06′W / 23.8°N 114.1°W / 23.8; -114.1 (Hilary), about 285 mi (460 km) south-southeast of Punta Eugenia, Mexico, and about 640 mi (1,030 km) south-southeast of San Diego, United States. Maximum sustained winds are 110 mph (175 km/h), with gusts up to 130 mph (215 km/h). The minimum barometric pressure is 959 mbar (28.32 inHg), and the system is moving north-northwest at 17 mph (28 km/h). Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 mi (70 km) from the center and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 mi (425 km).

For the latest official information, see:

Watches and warnings

Template:HurricaneWarningsTable

Preparations

Mexico

The Mexican Government issued watches for southern Baja California Sur on August 17.[14] They were upgraded to warnings later that day.[15] Hurricane watches were issued for western parts of the Baja California peninsula at 03:00 UTC on August 18, and by 15:00 UTC the same day, they were upgraded to hurricane warnings as hurricane watches were issued for the west coast of Baja California.[16]

School classes and public activities were cancelled in Baja California, and in Baja California Sur, a baseball game was postponed and ports along the state's coast were closed.[17] Several schools in Cabo San Lucas were used as temporary shelters, and 18,000 soldiers were on alert.[18] In La Paz, law enforcement patrolled closed beaches, while schools in five municipalities were shut down.[18]

United States

The Weather Prediction Center’s updated Excessive Rainfall Outlook for August 19–22, regarding Hurricane Hilary

On August 18, the NHC issued its first-ever tropical storm watch for southern California, and a level 4/high risk for excessive rainfall was issued by the Weather Prediction Center.[19][20] This became the first ever high risk of flash flooding in the desert valleys of Southern California east of the mountains.[21] A flood watch was also issued for portions of California, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona.[22] Twelve hours later, the NHC upgraded the tropical storm watch to a tropical storm warning for the region.[23] On August 19, the level 4/high risk from the Weather Prediction Center was continued and expanded.[24]

Amtrak cancelled its August 19 run of the westbound Sunset Limited due to the storm.[25] Several Pacific Surfliner trains were also cancelled or forced to run on modified schedules as well.[26] Parts of Joshua Tree National Park and Mojave National Preserve were closed.[18][27] The Los Angeles County Department of Parks and Recreation announced that all parks and facilities will be closed on Sunday and Monday. The Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department advised all people to leave Catalina Island on August 19 and Avalon Bay was closed to boats and ships.[28][29] Additional resources were deployed to the island by the Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department and the Los Angeles County Fire Department.[29] The San Bernardino County Sheriff's Department issued evacuation warnings for Oak Glen, Forest Falls, Mountain Home Village, Angelus Oaks and northeast Yucaipa also on August 19.[28] The launch for Falcon 9 and Starlink satellites from Vandenberg Space Force Base near Los Angeles was postponed by SpaceX.[30][31] An emergency operations center was opened in San Diego and Los Angeles.[32][33][34] Southwest Airlines flights departing from Palm Springs International Airport were cancelled.[35]


Major League Baseball rescheduled three games in advance of Hilary: one each for the San Diego Padres, Los Angeles Dodgers and Los Angeles Angels.[36] Major League Soccer home games for the LA Galaxy and Los Angeles FC were also rescheduled.[37] The National Football League however did not cancel a Los Angeles Chargers preseason game at SoFi Stadium. The United States Navy will move carriers and ships out to sea and out of Hilary's path, including the USS Theodore Roosevelt, and to park aircraft in hangars.[38] Federal Emergency Management Agency staff and personnel were ordered to be positioned in southern California by Joe Biden, and Biden urged residents and people in the storm's path to take precautions.[39][40][41] Nevada governor Joe Lombardo deployed 100 National Guard troops to assist southern Nevada impacted by severe weather associated with Hilary.[42]

Impact

Mexico

Heavy rains from the developing storm affected portions of southern and western Mexico,[12] and ports were closed to navigation along the Pacific coast from Oaxaca to Colima on August 17.[43][44] Coastal areas of Sinaloa recorded torrential rains from the hurricane's passage, with the first fatality reported on August 18 in Navolato when an SUV and its driver were washed away.[45] Damage was also reported in the municipalities of Angostura, Badiraguato, Elota, and Salvador Alvarado.[46]

See also

References

  1. ^ Masters, Jeff; Henson, Bob (August 19, 2023). "Hurricane Hilary weakening – but risks growing – as it steams toward California". Haven, Connecticut: Yale Climate Connections. Retrieved August 19, 2023.
  2. ^ "Hurricane Hilary continues to weaken as it nears Baja California". spectrumnews1.com. August 19, 2023. Retrieved August 19, 2023.
  3. ^ Eastern Pacific National Hurricane Center (August 19, 2023). "Hurricane #Hilary Advisory 11A: Catastrophic and Life-Threatening Flooding Likely Over Baja California and the Southwestern U. S. Through Early Next Week. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters Find That Hilary is Still a Category 4 Hurricane" (Post). X. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Archived from the original on August 19, 2023. Retrieved August 19, 2023.
  4. ^ Cangialosi, John (August 12, 2023). "Tropical Weather Outlook". Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 17, 2023.
  5. ^ Zelinsky, David (August 14, 2023). "Tropical Weather Outlook". Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 17, 2023.
  6. ^ Bucci, Lisa; Camposano, Samantha (August 16, 2023). Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 1 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 17, 2023.
  7. ^ Berg, Robbie (August 17, 2023). Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 4 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 17, 2023.
  8. ^ Pasch, Richard (August 17, 2023). Hurricane Hilary Intermediate Advisory Number 4A (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 17, 2023.
  9. ^ a b Pasch, Richard (August 17, 2023). Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 5 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 18, 2023.
  10. ^ Berg, Robbie (August 18, 2023). Hurricane Hilary Intermediate Advisory Number 7A (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 18, 2023.
  11. ^ a b Cangialosi, John (August 18, 2023). Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 9 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 18, 2023.
  12. ^ a b c Masters, Jeff; Henson, Bob (August 17, 2023). "Rapidly intensifying Hurricane Hilary heads toward Southern California]". Haven, Connecticut: Yale Climate Connections. Retrieved August 18, 2023.
  13. ^ Cangialosi, John (August 19, 2023). Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 13 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 19, 2023.
  14. ^ Berg, Robbie (August 17, 2023). "Tropical Storm Hilary Advisory Number 4". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 17, 2023.
  15. ^ Pasch, Richard (August 17, 2023). "Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number 5". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 18, 2023.
  16. ^ "HILARY Graphics Archive". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 18, 2023.
  17. ^ "Hurricane Hilary threatens Mexico, California with 'catastrophic floods'". Reuters. August 18, 2023. Retrieved August 19, 2023.
  18. ^ a b c "Powerful Hurricane Hilary heads for Mexico's Baja. Rare tropical storm watch issued for California". AP News. August 18, 2023. Retrieved August 18, 2023.
  19. ^ "Hurricane Hilary live updates: SoCal communities preparing for heavy rain, severe flooding". ABC7 Los Angeles. August 18, 2023. Retrieved August 18, 2023.
  20. ^ Service, NOAA's National Weather. "WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook". www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Retrieved August 18, 2023.
  21. ^ "Hurricane Hilary: Catastrophic, life-threatening flooding expected in Southwest US through Monday". Fox Weather. August 19, 2023. Retrieved August 19, 2023.
  22. ^ Freedman, Andrew (August 18, 2023). "Category 4 Hurricane Hilary prompts first-ever tropical storm watch for California". Axios.
  23. ^ "Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number 11". www.nhc.noaa.gov. Retrieved August 19, 2023.
  24. ^ Weather Prediction Center; National Weather Service; David Roth (Weather Prediction Center) (August 19, 2023). "WPC Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Archived from the original on August 19, 2023. Retrieved August 19, 2023.
  25. ^ "As of 12:15am CT, Sunset Limited Train 1, which is scheduled to depart New Orleans (NOL) on 8/19, is now canceled due to severe weather caused by Hurricane Hilary. For further assistance call or text 1-800-USA-RAIL". Twitter. Retrieved August 19, 2023.
  26. ^ "Travel Advisories | Pacific Surfliner". www.pacificsurfliner.com. Retrieved August 19, 2023.
  27. ^ "Parts of Joshua Tree National Park to close due to Hurricane Hilary". The Desert Sun. Retrieved August 18, 2023.
  28. ^ a b Cabrera, Tony; Garcia, Sid; Hayes, Rob; Raines, Dallas; Powell, Amy (August 19, 2023). "Hurricane Hilary live updates: Southern California preparing for heavy rain, severe flooding". ABC7. Retrieved August 19, 2023.
  29. ^ a b "Catalina residents and visitors urged to leave the island - CBS Los Angeles". www.cbsnews.com. August 19, 2023. Retrieved August 19, 2023.
  30. ^ Now, Spaceflight. "Starlink satellites soar from Florida, west coast launch slips to Monday due to hurricane – Spaceflight Now". Retrieved August 18, 2023.
  31. ^ Yablonski, Steven (August 16, 2023). "Hurricane Hilary now major Category 4 hurricane with 'significant' impacts expected in California, Southwest". FOX Weather. Retrieved August 18, 2023.
  32. ^ "City of San Diego opens Emergency Operations Center ahead of Hilary". FOX 5 San Diego. August 18, 2023. Retrieved August 18, 2023.
  33. ^ "Search and Rescue crews on alert ahead of Hurricane Hilary's arrival". KTLA. August 18, 2023. Retrieved August 19, 2023.
  34. ^ "Southern California Prepares for Hurricane Hilary". Los Angeles Sentinel. August 18, 2023.
  35. ^ "Hurricane Hilary live updates: California residents warned to brace for 'rare and dangerous' storm as Hilary barrels North". NBC News. August 19, 2023. Retrieved August 19, 2023.
  36. ^ "MLB reschedules 3 games due to Hurricane Hilary". The Athletic. August 18, 2023. Retrieved August 18, 2023.
  37. ^ "MLB and MLS move Los Angeles games with hurricane approaching Southern California". Yahoo Sports. August 18, 2023. Retrieved August 19, 2023.
  38. ^ Avitabile, Rafael; Feather • •, Bill (August 19, 2023). "USS Theodore Roosevelt, other Navy ships leaving California bases to dodge Hurricane Hilary". NBC 7 San Diego. Retrieved August 19, 2023.
  39. ^ "Hurricane Hilary threatens 'catastrophic and life-threatening' flooding in Mexico and California". AP News. August 19, 2023. Retrieved August 19, 2023.
  40. ^ "Hurricane Hilary heads for Mexico and California". BBC News. August 19, 2023. Retrieved August 19, 2023.
  41. ^ "Biden says FEMA ready to respond to rain and flooding in U.S. southwest". Reuters. August 18, 2023. Retrieved August 19, 2023.
  42. ^ McCandless, C. C. (August 19, 2023). "Gov. Lombardo activates National Guard ahead of Hurricane Hilary". FOX 5 Las Vegas. Retrieved August 19, 2023.
  43. ^ "Cierran puertos del Pacífico por la tormenta Hilary". La Jornada. August 17, 2023. Retrieved August 19, 2023.
  44. ^ "El huracán Hilary se dirige hacia la Península de Baja California; se hace un llamado a seguir recomendaciones de protección". Secretaría de Marina. August 17, 2023. Retrieved August 19, 2023.
  45. ^ Ricardo Díaz Canseco; Zurisaddai González (August 19, 2023). "Muere persona en Sinaloa por afectaciones indirectas de huracán Hilary" (in Spanish). Infobae. Archived from the original on August 19, 2023. Retrieved August 19, 2023.
  46. ^ "Huracán Hilary deja un muerto en Sinaloa; ahora va a Baja California". El Universal. August 19, 2023. Retrieved August 19, 2023.
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