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Vaporware

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This article is about the term as used in the computer industry. For the company, see VaporWare (company).
The U.S. Justice Department accused IBM of announcing its System/360 Model 91 computer (pictured) three years early intentionally to hurt sales of its competitor's computer.

Vaporware is a word used to describe products, usually computer hardware or software, not released on the date announced by their developer, or announced months or years before their release. It usually implies a negative opinion of a product, and uncertainty that it will eventually be released. The word applied to a growing range of products including consumer electronics, automobiles, and some stock trading practices.

Publications widely accuse developers of announcing products early intentionally to gain advantage over others. Network World magazine called vaporware an "epidemic" in 1989, and blamed the press for not investigating whether developers' claims were true. Seven major companies issued a report in 1990 saying they felt vaporware had hurt the industry's credibility. The United States accused several companies of announcing vaporware early in violation of antitrust laws, but few have been found guilty. InfoWorld magazine wrote that the word is overused, and places an unfair stigma on developers.

Vaporware was coined by a Microsoft engineer in 1982 to describe the company's Xenix operating system, and first published by computer expert Esther Dyson in 1983. It became popular among writers in the industry as a way to describe products they felt took too long to be released. InfoWorld magazine editor Stewart Alsop helped popularize it by lampooning Bill Gates with a Golden Vaporware award for the late release of his company's first version of Windows in 1985. Vaporware first implied intentional fraud when it was applied to the Ovation office suite in 1983; the suite's demonstration was well-received by the press, but was later revealed to have never existed.

Etymology

The first reported use of the word vaporware was in 1982 by an engineer at computer software company Microsoft.[1] Ann Winblad, who was president of Open Systems Accounting Software, wanted to know if Microsoft planned to stop developing its Xenix operating system. Some of Open System's products depended on it. She went to Micorsoft's offices, and asked two software engineers there, John Ulett and Mark Ursino, who confirmed that development of Xenix had stopped. "One of them told me, 'Basically, it's vaporware'," she later said. Winblad compared the word to the idea of "selling smoke", implying Microsoft was selling a product it would soon not support.[2]

Influential writer Esther Dyson (pictured here in 2008) popularized the term "vaporware" in her November 1983 issue of RELease 1.0

The word was told by Winblad to influential computer expert Esther Dyson,[2] and Dyson published it for the first time in her monthly printed newsletter RELease 1.0. In an article titled "Vaporware" in the November 1983 issue of RELease 1.0, Dyson defined the word as "good ideas incompletely implemented". She described three software products shown at the Computer Dealer's Exhibition in Las Vegas that year that were being advertised bombastically. In her words, demonstrations of the "purported revolutions, breakthroughs and new generations" shown at the exhibition did not meet those claims.[3][4]

After Dyson's article was published, the word became popular among writers in the then small personal computer software industry as a way to describe products they felt took too long to be released after their first announcement.[1] InfoWorld magazine editor Stewart Alsop helped popularize its use in this way by lampooning Bill Gates, then CEO of Microsoft, with a Golden Vaporware award for the 18-month late release of Microsoft's first version of Windows in 1985. Alsop presented it to Gates at a celebration for the release while the song "The Impossible Dream" played in the background.[5][6]

Vaporware took another meaning when it was used to describe a product that did not exist. A new company named Ovation Technologies announced their office suite Ovation in 1983.[7] The company invested in an advertising campaign that promoted Ovation as a "great innovation", and showed a demonstration of the program at computer trade shows.[8][1] The demonstration, was well received by writers in the press, featured in a cover story for an industry magazine, and reportedly created anticipation among potential customers.[8] It was later revealed by executives that Ovation never existed The fake demonstration was created in an attempt by the company to raise money to finish their product, but they could not. This was the first time the word vaporware was used to imply intentional fraud,[7] and is "widely considered the mother of all vaporware," according to Laurie Flynn of The New York Times.[1]

Vaporware, sometimes synonymous with "vaportalk" in the 1980s,[2] has no single definition. It is generally used to describe a hardware or software product that has been announced by its developer, but that has not yet been released. Using the word usually implies a negative opinion of the product or its developer by the writer.[4][9] Use of the term has gradually become more inclusive in the last three decades. Newsweek magazine's Allan Sloan described the manipulation of stocks by Yahoo! and Amazon.com as "financial vaporware" in 1997.[10] Popular Science magazine uses a scale ranging from "vaporware" to "bet on it" to describe release dates of new consumer electronics.[11] Car manufacturer General Motors' plans to develop and sell an electric car were called vaporware by an advocacy group in 2008.[12]

Causes and use of "vaporware"

Late release

left

— "Press' Vaporgate", 1985

A product missing its announced release date, and the labeling of it as vaporware by the press, can be caused by its development taking longer than planned. Most software products are not released on time, according to researchers who studied the causes and effects of vaporware in 2001.[6] Software development is a complex process, and developers are often uncertain how long it will take to complete any given project.[6][13] Fixing errors in software, for example, can make up a significant portion of its development time,[6] and developers are motivated not to release software with errors because it could damage their reputation with customers.[6] Last-minute design changes are also common.[6] In 1986, the American National Standards Institute adopted SQL as the standard database manipulation language. Software company Ashton-Tate was ready to release their dBase IV database manipulation program, but pushed the release date forward to add support for SQL. They felt their product would not be competitive without it.[8] On to the popular use of the word vaporware by writers in the mid-1980s, InfoWorld magazine editor James Fawcette wrote that its negative association was unfair to developers because of situations like these.[14]

A promotional screenshot of Duke Nukem Forever shown in 2007. The game's early announcement in 1997, continued promotion, and abandonment 12 years later made it synonymous with the word vaporware in the software industry.

Vaporware is also used to refer to announced products that are never released because of financial problems, or because the industry changes during its development.[8] When 3D Realms first announced their video game Duke Nukem Forever in 1997, it was early in its development.[15] The company's previous game released in 1996, Duke Nukem 3D, was a critical and financial success, and customer anticipation for its sequel was high. As personal computer hardware speeds improved at a rapid pace in the late 1990s, it created an "arms race" between companies in the video game industry, according to Wired News. 3D Realms repeatedly moved the released date forward over the next 12 years to add new, more advanced features. By the time 3D Realms went out of business in 2009 with the game unreleased, Duke Nukem Forever had become synonymous with the word vaporware among industry writers.[16][17]

Early announcement

Announcing products early—months or years before their release date,[18] also called "preannouncing",[19] has been an effective way by some developers to make their products successful. It can seen as a legitimate part of their marketing strategy, but is generally not popular with industry press.[20] The first company to release a product in a given market often gains an advantage. It can set the standard for similar future products, attract a large number of customers, and establish its brand before competitor's products are released.[8] Public relations firm Coakley-Heagerty used an early announcement in 1984 to build interest among potential customers. Their client was a former employee of Atari who wanted to market his new arcade game, but his contract with Atari prohibited it until a later date. The firm created an advertising campaign—including brochures and a shopping-mall appearance—around a large ambiguous box covered in brown paper to "stall for time" until the game could be announced.[2]

Early announcements do not only send signals to customers and the media. They are noticed by providers of support products, regulatory agencies, financial analysts, investors, and other parties. [20] For example, an early announcement can relay information to vendors, letting them know to prepare marketing and shelf space. It can signal third-party developers to being work on their own products, and it can be used to persuade a company's investors that they are actively developing new, profitable ideas.[19] When IBM announced its Professional Workstation computer in 1986, they noted the lack of third-party programs written for it at the time, signaling those developers to start preparing. Microsoft usually announces information about its operating systems early because third-party developers are dependent on that information to develop their own products.[19]

A developer can strategically announce a product that is in the early stages of development, or does not exist, to gain competitive advantage over other developers.[21] In addition to the "vaporware" label, this is also called "ambush marketing", and "fear, uncertainty and doubt" (FUD) by the press.[19] If the announcing developer is a large company, this may be done to influence smaller companies to stop development of similar products. The smaller company might decide their product will not be able to compete, and that it is not worth the development costs.[21] It can also be done in response to a competitor's already released product. The goal is to make potential customers believe a second, better product will be released soon. The customer might reconsider buying from the competitor, and wait.[22] In 1994, as customer anticipation increased for Microsoft's first version of Windows (codenamed "Chicago"), Apple announced a set of upgrades to its own System 7 operating system that were not due to be released until two years later. The Wall Street Journal wrote that Apple did this to "blunt Chicago's momentum".[23]

right

— "vaporware epidemic", 1989

Industry publications widely accused companies of using early announcements intentionally to gain competitive advantage over others. In his 1989 Network World article, Joe Mohen wrote the practice had become a "vaporware epidemic", and blamed the press for not investigating claims by developers. "If the pharmaceutical industry were this careless, I could announce a cure for cancer today — to a believing press."[24] In 1985, Stewart Alsop began publishing his influential monthly Vaporlist, a list of companies he felt announced their products too early, hoping to dissuade them from the practice.[1] Wired Magazine began publishing a similar list in 1997. Seven major software developers—including Ashton-Tate, Hewlett-Packard and Sybase—formed a council in 1990, and issued a report condemning the "vacuous product announcement dubbed vaporware and other misrepresentations of product availability" because they felt it had hurt the industry's credibility.[25]

Antitrust allegations

Template:Globalize/USA

Announcing a product that does not exist to gain a competitive advantage is illegal via Section 2 of the Sherman Antitrust Act of 1890, but few hardware or software developers have been found guilty of it. The section requires proof that the announcement is both provably false, and has actual or likely market impact.[26] False or misleading announcements designed to influence stock prices are illegal under United States securities fraud laws.[27] The complex and changing nature of the computer industry, marketing techniques, and lack of precedence for these laws applied to the industry can mean developers are not aware their actions are illegal. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission issued a statement in 1984 with the goal of reminding companies that securities fraud also applies to "statements that can reasonably be expected to reach investors and the trading markets".[28]

Several companies have been accused in court of using knowingly false announcements to gain market advantage. In 1969, The United States Justice Department accused IBM of doing this in the case United States v. IBM. After IBM's competitor Data Control released their computer, IBM announced they planned to sell a more advanced computer soon—its System/360 Model 91. The announcement resulted in a significant reduction in sales of Data Control's product. The Justice Department accused IBM did this intentionally because the System/360 Model 91 was not released until three years later.[29][30] The practice was not called vaporware at the time, but publications have since used the word to refer specifically to it. Similar cases have been filed against Kodak film company, AT&T, and Xerox.[31]

US District Judge Stanley Sporkin was a vocal opponent of the practice during his review of the settlelment resulting from United States v. Microsoft in 1994. "Vaporware is a practice that is deceitful on its face and everybody in the this business community knows it," said Sporkin.[32] One of the accusations made during the trial was that Microsoft has illegally used early announcements. The review began when three anonymous companies protested the settlement, claiming the government did not thoroughly investigate Microsoft's use of the practice. Specifically, they claimed Microsoft announced its Quick Basic 3 program to slow sales of its competitor Borland's recently released Turbo Basic program.[31] The review was dismissed for lack of explicit proof.[31]

Examples

Hardware

  • RED Scarlet - 3K digital film-like modular movie camera under $3K, and recording 120 fps in the same quality as similarly sized DSLR's take still, with the original release date 2009. May NOW be released 2010, invoking Scarlet fever amongst indie movie makers. The initial promise "3K for $3K" was scrapped as new features were added and expenses rose. The minimum price for a usable product will NOW be $4750 for a camera with one, single, irremovable fixed lense (as in solid), a Red Volt battery with 40-60 min battery time, a Compact Flash port with 10-15 min recording time to a 16GB CF card, added with a few hours processing time of the Red Raw footage using a modern CPU. For better and more practical features - like interchangeable lenses, RED Brick with a few hours battery time, HDD/SSD storage and realtime processing of Red RAW footage with the Red Rocket PCI card - the initial cost of a Scarlet will at least be doubled, tripled or even quadrupled. Founder of Red Digital Cinema Camera Company is James Jannard, also founder of the sunglass company Oakley, Inc. Camera featured as 3rd in Wired.com's list "Vaporware 2009: Inhale the Fail" - http://www.wired.com/epicenter/2009/12/vaporware-2009-inhale-the-fail/ Question is if it will also be featured in Wired.com's 2010 list - if so, it will probably take 1st place. All the above may be subject to change after NAB 2010, April.
  • Action Gamemaster - a handheld device designed by Active Enterprises[33]
  • Phantom - a console gaming system developed by Infinium Labs[34]

Games

  • Duke Nukem Forever - announced in 1997 and went on to be a six-time winner of Wired's Vaporware Award and a winner of their Lifetime Vaporware Achievement. After thirteen years in development, the developer 3D Realms shut down May 6, 2009.[35][36]
  • StarCraft: Ghost - a third-person shooter based on the StarCraft universe by Blizzard has been "postponed indefinitely" after five years of development.[37]
  • Black Mesa - A third-party mod based on the game Half-Life recreated in Source. The game has been in development for about seven with no signs of completion.
  • Elite 4

Software

  • Ovation - An integrated software package for DOS that was announced by Ovation Technologies in 1983. Written about in many computer magazines at the time, Ovation was never released.[38]

Surfaced vaporware

Products which once were considered to be vaporware which eventually surfaced after a prolonged time:

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e Flynn (1995), p. 1.
  2. ^ a b c d Shea (1984).
  3. ^ Dyson (1983), pp. 5–6.
  4. ^ a b Bayus; Jain; Rao (2001) p. 3.
  5. ^ Garud (1997); Ichbiah cited in Bayus; Jain; Rao (2001) p. 3.
  6. ^ a b c d e f Bayus; Jain; Rao (2001), p. 5.
  7. ^ a b Flynn (1995), p. 2.
  8. ^ a b c d e Jenkins (1998).
  9. ^ Prentice; Langmore (1994) p. 11.
  10. ^ Sloan (1997)
  11. ^ "What's New". Popular Science. Bonnier Corporation: 15. 2007-03-01. Retrieved 2010-04-15. {{cite journal}}: Unknown parameter |issn-= ignored (help)
  12. ^ "Road for electric car makers full of potholes". Los Angeles Times. Los Angeles Times. 2008-04-05. Retrieved 2010-04-19. {{cite news}}: |first= missing |last= (help); Text "last-Bersinger" ignored (help)
  13. ^ Johnston; Betts (1995).
  14. ^ Fawcette (1985).
  15. ^ Thompson (2009).
  16. ^ "R.I.P. `Duke Nukem Forever'". ABC News. ABC News Internet Ventures. 2009-04-11. Retrieved 2010-04-15. {{cite web}}: |first= missing |last= (help); Text "last-Kesten" ignored (help)
  17. ^ Kane, Yukari Iwatani (2009-05-07). "Duke Nukem Nuked". The Wall Street Journal Blogs. Dow Jones & Company. Retrieved 2010-04-14.
  18. ^ Prentice; Langmore (1994) p. 2.
  19. ^ a b c d Prentice (1996), p. 3.
  20. ^ a b Prentice (1996), p. 4.
  21. ^ a b Bayus; Jain; Rao (2001), p. 4.
  22. ^ Haan (2003).
  23. ^ Zachary; Carlton (1994)
  24. ^ Mohen (1989).
  25. ^ Messmer (1990).
  26. ^ Bayus; Jain; Rao (2001), p. 11.
  27. ^ Prentice; Langmore (1994) p. 15.
  28. ^ SEC (1994) cited in Prentice; Langmore (1994) p. 17.
  29. ^ Gerlach (2004).
  30. ^ "IBM Antitrust Suit Records". Hagley Museum and Library. Retrieved 2010-04-14.
  31. ^ a b c Stern (1995).
  32. ^ Yoder (1995) cited in Bayus; Jain; Rao (2001), p. 5.
  33. ^ http://wayofthegeek.org/2007/10/gotta-love-vaporware/
  34. ^ a b c d e f g "Vaporware '99: The 'Winners'". Wired. 2000. Retrieved 2007-10-31. The last year of the last decade before 2000 has come and gone, but the Vaporware 1999 "winners" are still a dream to some, and a nightmare to others. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  35. ^ McEntegart, Jane (2009-05-06). "Report: Duke Nukem Developer Shuts Down". Tom's Hardware.
  36. ^ "Duke Nukem developer goes bust". BBC News. 2009-05-07. Retrieved 2010-05-11.
  37. ^ Blizzard Postpones StarCraft: Ghost Indefinitely, GameSpy March 24, 2006 (retrieved March 25, 2006)
  38. ^ "Famous Vaporware Products". BYTE. Retrieved 2007-10-31.
  39. ^ http://www.wired.com/gadgets/wireless/news/2002/03/50855
  40. ^ a b "Vaporware 2000: Missing Inaction". Wired. 2001. Retrieved 2007-10-31. The bona fide beginning of the new millennium is almost upon us, but some things never change: The tech industry continues to whip up excitement by promising amazing new technologies, only to crush our spirits by delaying, postponing, pushing back or otherwise derailing the arrival of said goods -- sometimes indefinitely. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  41. ^ http://www.celemony.com/cms/index.php?id=products_editor&L=1
  42. ^ "Vaporware 2002: Tech up in Smoke?". Wired. 2003. Retrieved 2007-10-31. As 2002 ends, there is a lot of unfinished business in various corners of the tech world. We are referring, of course, to vaporware: hot, must-have products promised but never delivered. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  43. ^ "Vaporware 1998: Windows NT Wins". Wired. 1999. Retrieved 2007-10-31. Each December, Wired News petitions its readers for the year's most egregious examples of vaporware. This time last year, our research team was busily running down broken promises, empty hype, and slipping ship-dates all over the technology kingdom. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  44. ^ "Vaporware 2001: Empty Promises". Wired. 2002. Retrieved 2007-10-31. Whatever you like to call it -- the New Economy, the Dot-Com Economy, the Clinton Years -- one thing is now clear about the period of prosperity that began in the mid-'90s and was snuffed out early last year. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  45. ^ http://pc.ign.com/articles/701/701364p1.html
  46. ^ First impressions - S.T.A.L.K.E.R.: Shadow of Chernobyl. Eurogamer
  47. ^ http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/3.06/xanadu.html
  48. ^ http://www.pcworld.com/article/145351-5/the_top_15_vaporware_products_of_all_time.html
  49. ^ http://tech.blorge.com/Structure:%20/2009/12/29/enough-about-the-apple-tabletislateiguidevaporware-already/
  50. ^ http://www.docstoc.com/docs/21028238/Apple-Predictions-for-2010-iPhone-on-Multiple-Carriers-iSlate-Beatles
  51. ^ http://www.engadget.com/2005/05/10/apples-patented-the-tablet-mac/

References

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