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Peak copper

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World copper production, 1900-2002

Peak copper is the point in time at which the maximum global copper production rate is reached. Since copper is a finite resource, at some point in the future new production from within the earth will diminish, and at some earlier time production will reach a maximum. When this will occur is a matter of dispute. Unlike fossil fuels, however, copper is scrapped and reused and it has been estimated that at least 80% of all copper ever mined is still available (having been repeatedly recycled).[1] Copper is among the most important industrial metals. Copper is used in electrical power cables, data cables, electrical equipment, automobile radiators, cooling and refrigeration tubing, heat exchangers, artillery shell casings, small arms ammunition, water pipes, and jewellery. Copper has been in use at least 10,000 years, but more than 95% of all copper ever mined and smelted has been extracted since 1900. As India and China race to catch up with the West, the copper supply chain is becoming more strained,[2] leading to increased prices and an increase in copper theft.

History

Concern about the copper supply is not new. In 1924, noted geologist and copper-mining expert Ira Joralemon warned:

"... the age of electricity and of copper will be short. At the intense rate of production that must come, the copper supply of the world will last hardly a score of years. ... Our civilization based on electrical power will dwindle and die."[3]

Copper demand

Total world production is about 15 million tons per year.[4] Copper demand is increasing by more than 575,000 tons annually and accelerating.[2] Based on 2006 figures for per capita consumption, Tom Graedel and colleagues at Yale University calculate that by 2100 global demand for copper will outstrip the amount extractable from the ground.[5] China accounts for more than 22% of world copper demand.[6]

For some purposes, other metals can substitute. During a copper shortage in the 1970s, aluminium wire was substituted in many applications, but improper design caused a fire danger.[citation needed] The safety issues have since been solved by use of larger sizes of aluminium wire (#8AWG and up), and properly designed aluminium wiring is still being installed in place of copper.

Copper supply

Globally, economic copper resources are being depleted with the equivalent production of three world-class copper mines being consumed annually.[2] Environmental analyst Lester Brown has suggested copper might run out within 25 years based on what he considered a reasonable extrapolation of 2% growth per year.[7]

New copper discoveries

56 new copper discoveries have been made during the past three decades.[2] World discoveries of copper peaked in 1996.[8]

Production

The chief producers of copper are Chile, United States, and Peru.[9] 21 of the 28 largest copper mines in the world are not amenable to expansion.[2] Many large copper mines will be exhausted between 2010 and 2015.[2]

Copper production (thousands tonnes)[10][11][12]
Country 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
 Chile 4,580 4,860 5,410 5,320 5,560 5,600 5,330 5,390 5,420 5,420
 Peru 843 850 1,040 1,090 1,049 1,190 1,270 1,275 1,250 1,220
 United States 1,140 1,120 1,160 1,150 1,200 1,170 1,310 1,180 1,110 1,120
 China 585 565 620 640 890 946 950 995 1,190 1,190
 Australia 873 870 854 930 859 860 886 854 870 940
 Indonesia 1,160 1,170 840 1,050 816 797 651 996 872 625
 Russia 695 700 675 675 725 740 750 725 703 710
 Canada 600 580 546 580 607 589 607 491 525 550
 Zambia 330 330 427 450 476 520 546 697 690 715
 Poland 503 500 531 530 512 452 430 439 425 425
 Kazakhstan 490 480 461 400 457 407 420 390 380 360
 Mexico 330 330 406 420 338 347 247 238 260 365
Other countries 1,500 1,500 1,610 1,750 1,835 1,840 2,030 2,190 1,900 2,000
 World 13,600 13,900 14,600 14,900 15,100 15,400 15,400 15,900 15,900 16,100

Reserves

Copper is a fairly common element, with an estimated concentration of 50-70 ppm (0.005-0.007%) in Earth's crust (1 kg of copper per 15-20 tons of crustal rock). If all this copper were extractable, that would provide humans with a nearly inexhaustible supply of the element (millions of years worth).[citation needed] Unfortunately, most of it can't be extracted profitably at the current level of technology. At the present time, copper deposits are considered potentially profitable if they are located sufficiently close to the surface and they contain at least 0.3-0.5% of copper.[citation needed]

The U.S. Geological Survey reported a current total reserve base of copper (economic and uneconomic) of 1.6 billion tonnes as of 2005, of which 950 million tonnes was considered economically recoverable.[13]

Copper Reserves (thousands of tonnes)[12]
Country Reserves Percent Reserve Base Percent
 Chile 150,000 30.61% 360,000 38.30%
 United States 35,000 7.14% 70,000 7.45%
 China 26,000 5.31% 63,000 6.70%
 Peru 30,000 6.12% 60,000 6.38%
 Poland 30,000 6.12% 48,000 5.11%
 Australia 24,000 4.90% 43,000 4.57%
 Mexico 30,000 6.12% 40,000 4.26%
 Indonesia 35,000 7.14% 38,000 4.04%
 Zambia 19,000 3.88% 35,000 3.72%
 Russia 20,000 4.08% 30,000 3.19%
 Kazakhstan 14,000 2.86% 20,000 2.13%
 Canada 9,000 1.84% 20,000 2.13%
Other countries 35,000 7.14% 110,000 11.70%
 World 490,000 100% 940,000 100%

Known conventional resources

Recycling

Each year in the USA, more copper is recovered and put back into service from recycled material than is derived from newly mined ore. Copper’s recycle value is so great that premium-grade scrap normally has at least 95% of the value of primary metal from newly mined ore.[14]

Undiscovered conventional resources

Based on current discovery rates and existing geologic surveys, researchers have estimated that 1.6 billion metric tons of copper exist that could potentially be brought into use. This figure relies on the broadest possible definition of available copper as well as a lack of energy constraints and environmental concerns.[13]

Unconventional resources

Deep-sea nodules are estimated to contain 700 million tonnes of copper.[12]

Polities

Chile

Chile is the world's largest copper producer, and in 2007 accounted for 37% of the world's primary copper production (see table above). One researcher has stated that Chile copper production may begin to decline irreversibly in 2008.[2] However, this is contradicted by the Chilean Copper Commission, which has projected that, based on planned expansion projects, Chilean copper production will continue to increase through at least 2012.[15]

Zaire

In Zaire, Copper production fell by 90% from 1976 (502,000 tons) to wartime 1993 (50,000 tons). Resumption depends on political factors.[16]

Copper price

Copper Tonne Prices 1986 - early 2011 in USD, showing 2008's price collapse

The price of copper struck a first peak level on March 6, 2008 on the London Metal Exchange (LME), surging 5.8 percent over the previous trading day to US$4.02 per pound. The previous record was set on May 12, 2006 at $3.98/lb. The international copper price increased rapidly in early 2008, rising 23 percent in February 2008,[17] then declined 40% before December 2008,[18] and reached $1.30 by year's end.[19] In February 2011 the price peaked at over 10,100US$/tonne.[20]

Criticism

In his book The Ultimate Resource 2, Julian Simon extensively criticizes the notion of "peak resources", and uses copper as one example. He argues that, even though "peak copper" has been a persistent scare since the early 20th century, "known reserves" grew at a rate that outpaced demand, and the price of copper was not rising but falling in the long run. For example, even though world production of copper in 1950 was only 1/8th of what it was today, known reserves were also much lower at the time – around 100 million metric tons – making it appear that the world would run out of copper in 40 to 50 years at most (which has not proven to be the case).

Simon's own explanation for this development is that the very notion of known reserves is deeply flawed,[21] as it does not take into account changes in mining profitability. As richer mines are exhausted, developers turn their attention to poorer sources of the element and eventually develop cheap methods of extracting it, rising "known reserves". Thus, for example, copper was so abundant 5000 years ago, occurring in pure form as well as in highly concentrated copper ores, that prehistoric peoples were able to collect and process it with very basic technology. As of the early 21st century, copper is commonly mined from ores that contain 0.3% to 0.6% of copper by weight. Yet, despite the fact that the material is far less "widespread", the cost of, for example, a copper pot is vastly lower today in real terms than it was 5000 years ago.[22]

See also

References

  1. ^ http://www.copperinfo.com/environment/recycling.html
  2. ^ a b c d e f g Andrew Leonard (2006-03-02). "Peak copper?". Salon - How the World Works. Retrieved 2008-03-23.
  3. ^ "Copper and electricity to vanish in twenty years?" Engineering and Mining Journal-Press 26 July 1924, v.118 n.4 p.122.
  4. ^ Giurco, D: "Towards sustainable metal cycles:the case of copper", page 8, 2005, http://hdl.handle.net/2123/1521
  5. ^ David Cohen (2007-05-23). "Earth's natural wealth: an audit". New Scientist (2605): 34–41. Retrieved 2008-04-09.
  6. ^ Dan Glaister, Tania Branigan and Owen Bowcott (2008-03-20). "Deaths and disruption as price rise sees copper thefts soar". The Guardian. Retrieved 2008-04-09.
  7. ^ Brown, Lester (2006). Plan B 2.0: Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble. New York: W.W. Norton. p. 109. ISBN 0393328317.
  8. ^ "Peak Copper Means Peak Silver". Charleston Voice. 2005-12-29. Retrieved 2008-04-09.
  9. ^ Samuel K. Moore (2008-03). "Supply Risk, Scarcity, and Cellphones". IEEE Spectrum. IEEE. Retrieved 2008-03-23. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  10. ^ "pg. 54 - Copper" (PDF). USGS. 2004. Retrieved 2008-04-09.
  11. ^ "pg. 56 - Copper" (PDF). USGS. 2006. Retrieved 2008-04-09.
  12. ^ a b c "pg. 54 - Copper" (PDF). USGS. 2008. Retrieved 2008-04-09.
  13. ^ a b David Biello (2006-01-17). "Measure of Metal Supply Finds Future Shortage". Scientific American. Retrieved 2008-03-23.
  14. ^ "Copper in the USA: Bright Future – Glorious Past". Copper Development Association. Retrieved 2008-04-09.
  15. ^ Chilean Copper Commission (Sept. 2006): Current and future situation of the copper industry in Chile (Adobe *.PDF file)
  16. ^ "Zaire: IRIN Briefing Part II". University Of Pennsylvania. 1997-02-27. Retrieved 2008-04-09.
  17. ^ "International copper price hits record high". China view. 2008-03-08. Retrieved 2008-04-09.
  18. ^ Base Metals decline Times of India
  19. ^ $1.30 price
  20. ^ http://www.lme.com/copper.asp
  21. ^ Chapt 12, The Ultimate Resource II, by Julian Simon
  22. ^ The Ultimate Resource 2, by Julian Simon
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