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2016 Pacific hurricane season

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2016 Pacific hurricane season
Season summary map
Seasonal boundaries
First system formedJanuary 7, 2016 (record earliest)
Last system dissipatedSeason ongoing
Strongest storm
NameBlas
 • Maximum winds140 mph (220 km/h)
 • Lowest pressure947 mbar (hPa; 27.97 inHg)
Seasonal statistics
Total depressions7
Total storms5
Hurricanes4
Major hurricanes
(Cat. 3+)		1
Total fatalitiesNone
Total damageNone
Related article
Pacific hurricane seasons
2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018

The 2016 Pacific hurricane season is a currently ongoing season which marked the first time since 2011 in which no tropical cyclones occurred in May, and the first time since 2007 that no named storms formed in the month of June. On January 7, Hurricane Pali formed in the Central Pacific, becoming the earliest Central Pacific tropical cyclone to form on record.[1] The season officially started on May 15 in the East Pacific Ocean, and on June 1 in the Central Pacific; they will both end on November 30.[2] These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Pacific basin. However, as illustrated by Hurricane Pali, the formation of tropical cyclones is possible at any time of the year.

Seasonal forecasts

Record Named
storms 		Hurricanes Major
hurricanes 		Ref
Average (1981-2010): 15.4 7.6 3.2 [3]
Record high activity: 1992: 27 2015: 16 2015: 11 [4]
Record low activity: 2010: 8 2010: 3 2003: 0 [4]
Date Source Named
storms 		Hurricanes Major
hurricanes 		Ref
May 6, 2016 SMN 17 9 4 [5]
May 27, 2016 NOAA 13–20 6–11 3–6 [6]
Area Named
storms		 Hurricanes Major
hurricanes		 Ref
Actual activity: EPAC 4 3 1
Actual activity: CPAC 1 1 0
Actual activity: 5 4 1

On May 6, 2016, the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) issued its first outlook for the Pacific hurricane season, forecasting a near average season with 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. On May 27, NOAA released their outlook, forecasting 13-20 named storms, 6-11 hurricanes, and 3-6 major hurricanes. NOAA admitted that this season would be difficult to predict because of changing conditions, but both organizations cited a dissipating El Niño and the formation of a La Niña event, which resulted in the prediction of a near-normal season in both basins. In the Central Pacific, about four to seven cyclones would form or enter within the basin, citing an equal 40% chance of an above-normal or near-normal season.

Seasonal summary

Main article: Timeline of the 2016 Pacific hurricane season
2015 Pacific hurricane season#Tropical Depression Nine-CSaffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Hurricane Celia and Tropical Storm Darby active within the basin on July 12

The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index for the 2016 Pacific hurricane season, as of 15:00 UTC July 15, is 45.735 units (36.58 units from the Eastern Pacific and 9.155 units from the Central Pacific).[nb 1]

As the new year began, Tropical Depression Nine-C was in the Central Pacific, but dissipated later that day. Nine-C's remnants led to the formation of Pali on January 7, two days before Tropical Storm Winona's formation in 1989. Pali subsequently surpassed Hurricane Ekeka's record and became a hurricane on January 11. When Pali reached a peak intensity of 100 mph, it beat Winona to become the strongest January tropical cyclone east of the dateline. Pali also reached a record low latitude of 2.0°N, beating Nine-C's record of 2.2°N to become the southern most tropical cyclone on record in the western hemisphere. Although Pali formed in January, the season kicked off to a very inactive start; for the first time since 2011, no tropical depressions or storms formed during the month of May, and no named storms formed during June since 2007. Agatha formed on July 2, the latest first named storm in the eastern Pacific proper since 1969.

Storms

Hurricane Pali

Category 2 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationJanuary 7 – January 15
Peak intensity100 mph (155 km/h) (1-min);
977 mbar (hPa)

At the onset of 2016, the dissipating Tropical Depression Nine-C left behind a large area of moisture across the equatorial Pacific. A powerful westerly wind burst—a feature commonly associated with strong El Niño events—spurred cyclogenesis within the disturbance, resulting in the formation of an area of low pressure. Fueled by unusually high sea surface temperatures, estimated at 85.1 °F (29.5 °C), the system gradually coalesced into a tropical depression on January 7. This marked the earliest formation of a tropical cyclone on record in the Central Pacific, surpassing 1989's Tropical Storm Winona by six days.[7] It soon strengthened into a tropical storm, receiving the name Pali, becoming the earliest such system in the northeastern Pacific on record.[8] Then, on January 11, Pali strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane, becoming the earliest hurricane on record in the northeast Pacific basin, beating the previous record set by Hurricane Ekeka in 1992.[9] Pali reached a minimum latitude of 2.0°N, making it the lowest latitude tropical cyclone on record in the Western Hemisphere, surpassing Tropical Depression Nine-C which attained a minimum latitude of 2.2°N just two weeks prior.[10][11] On January 12, Pali strengthened further into a Category 2 hurricane.[12] During the next few days, Pali rapidly weakened while turning back towards the south-southeast, before weakening into a remnant low early on January 15.[13]

Unrelated to Pali, Hurricane Alex developed over the Atlantic during the last few days of Pali's existence. This marked the first known occurrence of simultaneous January tropical cyclones between the two basins.[14]

Tropical Depression One-E

Tropical depression (SSHWS)
 
DurationJune 6 – June 8
Peak intensity35 mph (55 km/h) (1-min);
1006 mbar (hPa)

On June 4, the National Hurricane Center began monitoring an area for possible development.[15] Over the next few days, the chances of the storm forming were low. Unexpectedly, however, on June 6, advisories began to be issued on Tropical Depression One-E.[16][17] This led the Government of Mexico to issue a Tropical Storm Watch for its coast.[18] On June 7 the storm weakened slightly thus the watch was removed.[19] Early on June 8, the storm made landfall in Mexico near the Gulf of Tehuantepec and dissipated.[20]

As a precautionary measure, temporary shelters were opened across Chiapas.[21] The depression caused minor damage across Oaxaca, primarily within the Salina Cruz municipality. Heavy rains led to some street flooding and a sinkhole that damaged one home.[22]

Tropical Storm Agatha

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationJuly 2 – July 5
Peak intensity45 mph (75 km/h) (1-min);
1003 mbar (hPa)

On June 30, the National Hurricane Center began to monitor an area for possible formation. On July 1, organization unexpectedly increased.[23] Seven hours later, early on July 2, the tropical disturbance strengthened into Tropical Depression Two-E. The system quickly organized, and later that day, the NHC upgraded Two-E into Tropical Storm Agatha.[24] Agatha slightly strengthened to peak intensity on July 3.[25] Winds topped off at 45 mph. Soon after, Agatha weakened slightly, with winds lowering to 40 mph later that day. The storm continued westwards over the next two days. Early on July 5, Agatha became post-tropical.[26]

With Agatha's naming nearly two months into the season (on July 2), the storm is the second-latest first named storm in the eastern Pacific proper — only Tropical Storm Ava, which reached tropical storm intensity on July 3, 1969, formed later in the season.[24]

Hurricane Blas

Category 4 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationJuly 3 – July 10
Peak intensity140 mph (220 km/h) (1-min);
947 mbar (hPa)

On June 27, the NHC began to monitor a tropical wave moving over Central America for possible development.[27] A low pressure area formed south of Mexico on June 30,[28] and early on July 3, the storm gained enough organization to be designated Tropical Depression Three-E.[29] Six hours later, amid a favorable environment with high sea surface temperatures and decreasing vertical wind shear, it intensified into Tropical Storm Blas.[30] Steady strengthening ensued, and Blas intensified into a hurricane on July 4.[31] Intensification stalled for the remainder of that day as dry air wrapped into the circulation;[32] however, Blas began to rapidly deepen on July 5, and it became the first major hurricane of the season that evening.[33] Blas quickly reached peak intensity at Category 4 strength on July 6.[34] Blas weakened to a Category 3 hurricane soon after; later the same day, Blas became an annular tropical cyclone while maintaining Category 3 intensity.[35] As the storm turned to the northwest, Blas weakened to a Category 2 hurricane by 15:00 UTC on July 8. Blas degenerated into a remnant low early on July 10.[citation needed]

Hurricane Celia

Tropical Storm Celia
Current storm status
Tropical storm (1-min mean)
Satellite image
Forecast map
As of:5:00 a.m. HST (15:00 UTC) July 15
Location:22°12′N 141°24′W / 22.2°N 141.4°W / 22.2; -141.4 (Tropical Storm Celia) ± 20 nm
About 900 mi (1,450 km) ENE of Hilo, Hawaii
About 1,060 mi (1,705 km) E of Honolulu, Hawaii
Sustained winds:35 kt (40 mph; 65 km/h) (1-min mean)
gusting to 45 kt (50 mph; 85 km/h)
Pressure:1004 mbar (29.65 inHg)
Movement:W at 11 kt (13 mph; 20 km/h)
See more detailed information.

On July 2, the National Hurricane Center began to watch an area for possible development.[citation needed] On July 6, they noted that "a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days."[36] Later that day, it became Tropical Depression Four-E. On July 8, it strengthened into Tropical Storm Celia. Later on July 10, Celia intensified into a hurricane.[citation needed]

Current storm information

As of 5:00 a.m. HST (15:00 UTC) July 15, Tropical Storm Celia is located within 20 nautical miles of 22°12′N 141°24′W / 22.2°N 141.4°W / 22.2; -141.4 (Tropical Storm Celia), about 900 miles (1,450 km) east-northeast of Hilo, Hawaii, and about 1,060 mi (1,705 km) east of Honolulu, Hawaii. Maximum sustained winds are 35 knots (40 mph; 65 km/h), with gusts up to 45 knots (50 mph; 85 km/h). The minimum barometric pressure is 1004 mbar (29.65 inHg), and the system is moving west at 11 knots (13 mph; 20 km/h). Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Celia.

For latest official information, see:

Hurricane Darby

Hurricane Darby
Current storm status
Category 2 hurricane (1-min mean)
Satellite image
Forecast map
As of:8:00 a.m. PDT (15:00 UTC) July 15
Location:16°30′N 120°30′W / 16.5°N 120.5°W / 16.5; -120.5 (Hurricane Darby) ± 15 nm
About 820 mi (1,315 km) WSW of the southern tip of Baja California
Sustained winds:85 kt (100 mph; 155 km/h) (1-min mean)
gusting to 105 kt (120 mph; 195 km/h)
Pressure:975 mbar (28.80 inHg)
Movement:WNW at 8 kt (9 mph; 15 km/h)
See more detailed information.

Over the first week of July, multiple low pressure systems formed over the East Pacific. The fourth of these was first noted by the National Hurricane Center on July 9, it was located in a favorable environment, and was expected to develop into a tropical storm. On July 10, the low was upgraded into Tropical Depression Five-E. Two days later, Five-E intensified into a tropical storm, with the NHC naming it Darby. On July 13, Darby strengthened into a hurricane.[citation needed]

Current storm information

As of 8:00 a.m. PDT (15:00 UTC) July 15, Hurricane Darby is located within 15 nautical miles of 16°30′N 120°30′W / 16.5°N 120.5°W / 16.5; -120.5 (Hurricane Darby), about 820 miles (1,315 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Maximum sustained winds are 85 knots (100 mph; 155 km/h), with gusts up to 105 knots (120 mph; 195 km/h). The minimum barometric pressure is 975 mbar (hPa; 28.80 inHg), and the system is moving west-northwest at 8 knots (9 mph; 15 km/h). Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center of Darby, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center.

For latest official information, see:

Tropical Depression Six-E

Tropical Depression Six-E
Current storm status
Tropical depression (1-min mean)
Forecast map
As of:9:00 a.m. MDT (15:00 UTC) July 15
Location:14°00′N 106°18′W / 14.0°N 106.3°W / 14.0; -106.3 (Tropical Depression Six-E) ± 40 nm
About 370 mi (595 km) SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico
Sustained winds:30 kt (35 mph; 55 km/h) (1-min mean)
gusting to 40 kt (45 mph; 75 km/h)
Pressure:1007 mbar (29.74 inHg)
Movement:WNW at 7 kt (8 mph; 13 km/h)
See more detailed information.

Current storm information

As of 9:00 a.m. MDT (15:00 UTC) July 15, Tropical Depression Six-E is located within 40 nautical miles of 14°00′N 106°18′W / 14.0°N 106.3°W / 14.0; -106.3 (Tropical Depression Six-E), about 370 miles (595 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are 30 knots (35 mph; 55 km/h), with gusts up to 40 knots (45 mph; 75 km/h). The minimum barometric pressure is 1007 mbar (hPa; 29.74 inHg), and the system is moving west-northwest at 7 knots (8 mph; 13 km/h).

For latest official information, see:

Storm names

The following names will be used for named storms that form in the northeastern Pacific Ocean during 2016. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2017. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2022 season.[37] This is the same list used in the 2010 season, except for the name Ivette, which replaced Isis after the rise of the terrorist group of the same name.[38]

  • Agatha
  • Blas
  • Celia (active)
  • Darby (active)
  • Estelle (unused)
  • Frank (unused)
  • Georgette (unused)
  • Howard (unused)
  • Ivette (unused)
  • Javier (unused)
  • Kay (unused)
  • Lester (unused)
  • Madeline (unused)
  • Newton (unused)
  • Orlene (unused)
  • Paine (unused)
  • Roslyn (unused)
  • Seymour (unused)
  • Tina (unused)
  • Virgil (unused)
  • Winifred (unused)
  • Xavier (unused)
  • Yolanda (unused)
  • Zeke (unused)

For storms that form in the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, encompassing the area between 140 degrees west and the International Date Line, all names are used in a series of four rotating lists.[39] The next four names slated for use are shown below.

  • Pali
  • Ulika (unused)
  • Walaka (unused)
  • Akoni (unused)

Season effects

This is a table of all the storms that have formed in the 2016 Pacific hurricane season. It includes their duration, names, landfall(s), denoted in parentheses, damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave, or a low, and all the damage figures are in 2016 USD.

Saffir–Simpson scale
TD TS C1 C2 C3 C4 C5
2016 Pacific hurricane season statistics
Storm
name 		Dates active Storm category
at peak intensity 		Max 1-min
wind
mph (km/h) 		Min.
press.
(mbar) 		Areas affected Damage
(USD) 		Deaths Ref(s)
Pali January 7 – 15 Category 2 hurricane 100 (155) 977 None None None
One-E June 6 – 8 Tropical depression 35 (55) 1006 Southwestern Mexico Minor None
Agatha July 2 – 5 Tropical storm 45 (75) 1003 None None None
Blas July 3 – 10 Category 4 hurricane 140 (220) 947 None None None
Celia July 6 – present Category 2 hurricane 100 (155) 972 None None None
Darby July 11 – present Category 2 hurricane 100 (155) 975 None None None
Six-E July 15 – present Tropical depression 35 (55) 1007 None None None
Season aggregates
7 systems January 7 – Season ongoing   140 (220) 947 Unknown None  

See also

Notes

  1. ^ The totals represent the sum of the squares for every (sub)tropical storm's intensity of over 33 knots (38 mph, 61 km/h), divided by 10,000. Calculations are provided at Talk:2016 Pacific hurricane season/ACE calcs.

References

  1. ^ Pali Becomes Earliest Central Pacific Tropical Storm on Record
  2. ^ Dorst Neal. When is hurricane season? (Report). Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. Archived from the original on 6 December 2010. Retrieved November 25, 2010. {{cite report}}: Unknown parameter |deadurl= ignored (|url-status= suggested) (help)
  3. ^ "Background Information: East Pacific Hurricane Season". Climate Prediction Center. College Park, Maryland: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. May 22, 2014. Retrieved May 29, 2014.
  4. ^ a b National Hurricane Center; Hurricane Research Division; Central Pacific Hurricane Center (April 26, 2024). "The Northeast and North Central Pacific hurricane database 1949–2023". United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service. Archived from the original on May 29, 2024. A guide on how to read the database is available here. Public Domain This article incorporates text from this source, which is in the public domain.
  5. ^ http://smn.cna.gob.mx/tools/DATA/Ciclones%20Tropicales/Proyecci%C3%B3n/2016.pdf
  6. ^ http://www.noaa.gov/near-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season-most-likely-year
  7. ^ Bob Henson (January 7, 2016). "Rare January Depression in Central Pacific; Atlantic Subtropical Storm Next Week?". Weather Underground. Retrieved January 9, 2016.
  8. ^ Bob Henson (January 8, 2016). "Warm, Wet Year for U.S.; Record Heat in South Africa; Tropical Storm Pali Intensifies". Weather Underground. Retrieved January 9, 2016.
  9. ^ "Hurricane Pali Discussion Number 19". 12 January 2016.
  10. ^ Erdman, John. "Tropical Depression Nine-C Dissipates; Caps Off a Record Central Pacific Hurricane Season". The Weather Channel. The Weather Channel. Retrieved 6 January 2016.
  11. ^ Ballard, R. "TROPICAL DEPRESSION PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 30". National Weather Service. Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Retrieved 14 January 2016.
  12. ^ HURRICANE PALI ADVISORY NUMBER 22
  13. ^ REMNANTS OF PALI ADVISORY NUMBER 31
  14. ^ Jeff Masters (January 13, 2016). "Unprecedented: Simultaneous January Named Storms in the Atlantic and Central Pacific". Weather Underground. Retrieved January 14, 2016.
  15. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/xgtwo/gtwo_archive.php?current_issuance=201606041745&basin=epac&fdays=2
  16. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/xgtwo/gtwo_archive.php?current_issuance=201606061745&basin=epac&fdays=2
  17. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/xgtwo/gtwo_archive.php?current_issuance=201606062035&basin=epac&fdays=2
  18. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/ep01/ep012016.public.001.shtml?
  19. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/ep01/ep012016.public.006.shtml?
  20. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP1+shtml/081434.shtml?
  21. ^ Tuxtla Gutiérrez (June 9, 2016). "Sin daños ni pérdidas humanas por depresión tropical en Chiapas" (in Spanish). Uno TV. Notimex. Retrieved June 16, 2016.
  22. ^ "Depresión tropical 1-E provoca daños menores en Oaxaca" (in Spanish). Noticias MVS. Notimex. June 8, 2016. Retrieved June 16, 2016.
  23. ^ Robbie J. Berg; Michael J. Brennan (July 1, 2016). "NHC Graphical Outlook Archive". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 2, 2016.
  24. ^ a b Jack L. Beven (July 2, 2016). "Tropical Storm Agatha Discussion Number 3". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 2, 2016.
  25. ^ Stacy R. Stewart (July 3, 2016). "Tropical Storm Agatha Discussion Number 6". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 5, 2016.
  26. ^ Daniel Brown (July 4, 2016). "Tropical Storm Agatha Discussion Number 13". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 5, 2016.
  27. ^ Stacy R. Stewart (June 27, 2016). "Tropical Weather Outlook 1100 am PDT Mon Jun 27 2016". Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 5, 2016.
  28. ^ Stacy R. Stewart (June 30, 2016). "Tropical Weather Outlook 1100 am PDT Thu Jun 30 2016". Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 5, 2016.
  29. ^ Michael J. Brennan (July 3, 2016). "Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 1". Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 5, 2016.
  30. ^ Stacy R. Stewart (July 3, 2016). "Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 2". Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 5, 2016.
  31. ^ Todd B. Kimberlain (July 4, 2016). "Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 7". Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 5, 2016.
  32. ^ Todd B. Kimberlain (July 4, 2016). "Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 8". Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 5, 2016.
  33. ^ Stacy R. Stewart (July 5, 2016). "Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 12". Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 5, 2016.
  34. ^ Cangialosi, John (July 6, 2016). "Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 13". Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 10, 2016.
  35. ^ Brown, Daniel (July 6, 2016). "Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 15". Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 10, 2016.
  36. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/xgtwo/gtwo_archive.php?current_issuance=201607061441&basin=epac&fdays=2
  37. ^ "Tropical Cyclone Names". National Hurricane Center. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 2013-04-11. Archived from the original on May 8, 2013. Retrieved May 8, 2013.
  38. ^ "'Isis' among names removed from UN list of hurricane names". Reuters. April 17, 2015. Retrieved January 7, 2016.
  39. ^ "Pacific Tropical Cyclone Names". Central Pacific Hurricane Center. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. April 11, 2013. Archived from the original (PHP) on May 8, 2013. Retrieved May 8, 2013.
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