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2023 Adamawa State gubernatorial election

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2023 Adamawa State gubernatorial election
← 2019 18 March 2023 2027 →
Registered2,196,566
Turnout39.90%[a]
 
Nominee Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri Aishatu Dahiru Ahmed
Party PDP APC
Running mate Kaletapwa Farauta Titsi Ganama
Popular vote 430,861 398,788
Percentage 50.46% 46.71%
Governor before election

Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri
PDP

Elected Governor

Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri
PDP

The 2023 Adamawa State gubernatorial election took place on 18 March 2023, to elect the Governor of Adamawa State, concurrent with elections to the Adamawa State House of Assembly as well as twenty-seven other gubernatorial elections and elections to all other state houses of assembly.[1][2] The election — which was postponed from its original 11 March date — was held three weeks after the presidential election and National Assembly elections.[3] Incumbent Governor Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri (PDP) was re-elected by a 3.75% margin over first runner-up and APC nominee — Senator Aishatu Dahiru Ahmed.[4]

The primaries, scheduled for between 4 April and 9 June 2022, resulted in Fintiri winning the Peoples Democratic Party primary unopposed on 26 May while the All Progressives Congress nominated Senator for Adamawa Central Aishatu Dahiru Ahmed on 25 May.[5][6] Although a Federal High Court ruling nullified the APC primary on 14 October, an Appeal Court judgment overturned the nullification and reinstated Ahmed on 24 November.[7][8]

The conduct of the general election was highly controversial with INEC failing to declare the results by 20 March due to delays in counting due to logistical problems and attempted electoral interference. Later on 20 March, INEC declared the election inconclusive; Fintiri and the PDP rejected the declaration, having already alleged a plot to rig the election in favour of Ahmed.[9][10][11] The commission set the supplementary election on 15 April, along with other supplementary elections nationwide.[12]

As collation was still in progress on the early morning of 16 April, INEC Resident Electoral Commissioner Hudu Ari declared Ahmed as the victor; the declaration led to immediate protest as the Resident Electoral Commissioner does not have the power to declare a winner, collation was incomplete, and Ari refused to give any data on the purported results.[13] In response, the national INEC called Ari's declaration "null, void and of no effect" before summoning him to the INEC headquarters in Abuja and barring him from office.[14][15] On 17 April, returning officer Mohammed Mele declared the genuine results: in total, Fintiri obtained nearly 431,000 votes and 50% of the vote as runner-up Ahmed received almost 399,000 votes and 47% of the vote.[4] The controversial and prolonged election process drew public outrage with critics calling the process a "new low" and "dance of shame" for INEC amid various other electoral controversies.[16] Journalists noted potential credibility issues Fintiri could face due to the declaration scandal.[17]

Electoral system

The Governor of Adamawa State is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive the plurality of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of state local government areas. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of local government areas.

Background

Adamawa State is a large, diverse northeastern state in the process of recovering from the worst of the Boko Haram insurgency. The state also has to contend with an underdeveloped yet vital agricultural sector and low education rates along with continued security challenges from Boko Haram and ISWAP to sustained conflict between herders and farmers.

Politically, the 2019 Adamawa elections were a swing back to the PDP as its presidential nominee Atiku Abubakar won the state back from Buhari and Fintiri unseated APC Governor Bindo Jibrilla. Legislatively the PDP also gained ground, winning two Senate seats, five House of Representatives seats, and control of the House of Assembly. During Fintiri's term, his administration stated focuses included increased security, ethnic and religious harmony, and water resource management. In terms of his performance, Fintiri was commended for civil service reform while being criticized for having few accomplishments of his own and disregarding FAAN airport health protocols in July 2020.[18][19][20]

Primary elections

The primaries, along with any potential challenges to primary results, were to take place between 4 April and 3 June 2022 but the deadline was extended to 9 June.[2][21] According to some candidates and community leaders, an informal zoning gentlemen's agreement sets the Adamawa Central Senatorial District to have the next governor as since the 1999 return of democracy, all Adamawa governors have come from either the Adamawa South or Adamawa North Senatorial Districts. However, no major party has yet closed their primaries to candidates from the North or South.[22]

All Progressives Congress

On 20 April 2022, the APC National Executive Committee announced the party's schedule for gubernatorial primaries, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦10 million and nomination form price at ₦40 million with a 50% nomination form discount for candidates younger than 40 while women and candidates with disabilities get free nomination forms. Forms were to be sold from 26 April to 6 May until the deadline was later extended to 10 May then 12 May.[23] After the submission of nomination forms by 13 May, candidates were screened by a party committee on 14 and 15 May while 16 May was the date for the screening appeal process.[24] Ward congresses and LGA congresses were set for between 7 and 9 May to elect delegates for the primary. Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 26 May, in concurrence with other APC gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made the next day.[25][26][27][28]

On the primary date, the six candidates continued to an indirect primary in Yola that resulted in Aishatu Dahiru Ahmed—Senator for Adamawa Central and former member of the House of Representatives—emerging as the APC nominee after results showed her winning over 42% of the delegates' votes.[5][29] Controversy arose during the primary when two of Ahmed's campaigners were arrested while caught bribing delegates and after the primary, accusation of overvoting led to internal debates. Later it was noted that Ahmed's nomination was the first time a woman had been nominated by a major party for the Adamawa governorship and only the second time a woman had been nominated by a major party for any state governorship.[30][31] Post-primary analysis noted several failures from Ahmed's opponents and the success of Ahmed's campaign in picking off delegates expected to vote for others along with consolidating support from women delegates.[32] However, about a month after the primary, first runner-up Nuhu Ribadu sued for the nullification of the primary based on the reports of vote-buying.[33] Despite of the court proceedings, Ahmed continued her campaign and picked Titsi Ganama—a fellow former House of Representatives member—as her running mate.[34] On 14 October, Ribadu's suit was ruled on with Judge Abdulaziz Anka siding with Ribadu in invalidating Ahmed's nomination due to overvoting in the primary; however, Anka did not name Ribadu as nominee or order a rerun primary and instead rendered the APC without a nominee for the gubernatorial election.[7] Ahmed announced her intention to appeal the judgment later that week and a Court of Appeal judgment on 24 November ruled in her favour, reinstating Ahmed as nominee.[35][8] Although Ribadu originally announced his intention to take the case to the Supreme Court, he withdrew the lawsuit in early December "for the larger good of the party."[36]

Nominated

Eliminated

Withdrew

Declined

Results

Candidates' vote share

  Aishatu Dahiru Ahmed (44.10%)
  Nuhu Ribadu (29.54%)
  Bindow Jibrilla (10.56%)
  Abdulrazak Namdas (9.64%)
  Other candidates (6.15%)
APC primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
APC Aishatu Dahiru Ahmed 430 44.10%
APC Nuhu Ribadu 288 29.54%
APC Bindow Jibrilla 103 10.56%
APC Abdulrazak Namdas 94 9.64%
APC Umar Mustapha 39 4.00%
APC Warfarninyi Theman 21 2.15%
Total votes 975 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes 36 N/A
Turnout 1,011 Unknown

People's Democratic Party

On 16 March 2022, the national PDP announced its gubernatorial primaries' schedule, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦1 million and the nomination form price at ₦20 million with a 50% discount for candidates between 25 and 30. Forms were to be sold until 1 April but the party later extended the deadline four times before reaching a final deadline of 22 April. After the submission of nomination forms by 25 April, candidates were screened by a party committee on 28 April while 2 May was the rescheduled date for the screening appeal process. Ward congresses were set for 29 April and LGA congresses were rescheduled for 10 May to elect delegates for the primary.[47] Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 25 May, in concurrence with all other PDP gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made in the following days.[48][49]

Although there was significant controversy over the disqualification of Fintiri's only primary opponent a few days before the contest, the primary held peacefully with Fintiri as the sole candidate.[50] After winning unopposed at the primary venue in Yola, Fintiri thanked the party delegates and urged the state party to support Atiku Abubakar's presidential primary campaign.[6] About a month after the primary, Kaletapwa Farauta—the Vice-Chancellor of Adamawa State University and former Commissioner of Education from Numan—was picked as Fintiri's running mate instead of incumbent Deputy Governor Crowther Seth.[51][52] At the formal unveiling event of Farauta as running mate in early August, Fintiri said he picked Farauta for a gender balanced ticket and praises Seth's service.[53]

Nominated

Disqualified by screening committee

Results

PDP primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
PDP Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri 663 100.00%
Total votes 663 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes 5 N/A
Turnout 668 Unknown

Minor parties

Campaign

In the months after the primaries, pundits noted the potential boost that Fintiri could receive due to Adamawa-native Atiku Abubakar's nomination to be the PDP presidential nominee; another issue for Ahmed was due to the APC presidential ticket—APC nominee Bola Tinubu's selection of Kashim Shettima created a Muslim-Muslim ticket, violating an unwritten convention against same religion tickets—with pundits noting the religious diversity of Adamawa and the opposition forming against the APC among northern Christians. There were also issues within the Adamawa APC as Nuhu Ribadu—runner-up in the gubernatorial primary—contested the primary results leading to an internal party crisis that culminated in the removal of state party chair Ibrahim Bilal in September 2022.[58] Nonetheless, observers also noted Ahmed's strong support base among women voters and historic candidacy to become the first elected woman governor. Analysts claimed that Ahmed's popularity with women may have led Fintiri to drop incumbent Deputy Governor Crowther Seth as his running mate for Kaletapwa Farauta in order to achieve a gender balanced ticket.[59][60][61] Another major factor was the ability for Fintiri to retain his support in the Numan area and among the Christian minority; both demographics were vital for Fintiri in 2019.[60][61] By September, pundits were questioning the effects of misogyny against Ahmed and the political clout of respective running mates along with potential of the more prominent minor parties—Labour Party and Social Democratic Party.[61]

However, the next month brought a massive shift to the race as the APC primary was annulled through a Federal High Court ruling that also refused to accede to a new primary, effectively barring the APC from the election.[7] However, a Court of Appeal judgment in late November overturned the previous ruling, reinstating Ahmed as nominee.[8] Despite the successful appeal and Ribadu's acceptance of the ruling, internal rifts created by the legal battle remained as Ahmed supporters feuded with backers of First Lady Aisha Buhari—who had reportedly argued for a Ribadu-led ticket if the Court of Appeal ordered the party to conduct a new primary.[62]

By January 2023, campaigning intensified as litigation concluded and the election neared. Ahmed focused on women voters at rallies while Fintiri received the endorsement of the influential Church of the Brethren in Nigeria.[63][64] Analysis from SMB Intelligence also noted ethnicity-based voting as a possibility (Ahmed is an ethnic Fulani while Fintiri is ethnically Marghi); however, the piece focused moreso on the influence of Abubakar on the race.[65] The next month, focus switched to the presidential election on 25 February. In the election, Adamawa State voted for Atiku Abubakar (PDP); Abubakar won the state with 57.1% of the vote, beating Bola Tinubu (APC) at 25.0% and Peter Obi (LP) at 14.5%. Although the result was unsurprising as Adamawa is in Abubakar's home state and projections had favored him, the totals led to increased attention on Fintiri's chances in the gubernatorial race with the EiE-SBM forecast projecting Fintiri to win based on "the outcome of the presidential elections" while a Premium Times article noted the potential effect of ethnic dynamics.[66][67] However, reporting from the Daily Post noted that Ahmed had been underestimated in previous elections and could receive a boost from Tinubu's vote in the presidential election.[68] Observers also reiterated the significance of Ahmed's historic candidacy for women in the wake of the federal elections' backslide in female representation, especially considering allegations that the PDP had worked with misogynistic clerics in an attempt to discredit the possibility of a woman becoming governor.[69][67]

Projections

Source Projection As of
Africa Elects[b][70] Lean Fintiri 17 March 2023
Enough is Enough-
SBM Intelligence[c][66] 		Fintiri 2 March 2023

Conduct

Electoral timetable

On 26 February 2022, the Independent National Electoral Commission released the timetable, setting out key dates and deadlines for the election.[71] Months later on 27 May 2022, INEC made a slight revision to the timetable, allowing parties extra time to conduct primaries.[72]

  • 28 February 2022 – Publication of Notice of Election
  • 4 April 2022 – First day for the conduct of party primaries
  • 9 June 2022[d] – Final day for the conduct of party primaries, including the resolution of disputes arising from them
  • 1 July 2022 – First day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
  • 15 July 2022 – Final day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
  • 12 October 2022 – Commencement of the official campaign period
  • 16 March 2023[e] – Final day of the official campaign period

General election

Results

2023 Adamawa State gubernatorial election
Party Candidate Votes %
AA Hussaini Tahir
ADP Muhammad Usman Shuwa
APP Abdulkadir Isa Adam
ADC Umaru Babangida
APM Bello Babajo
APC Aishatu Dahiru Ahmed
APGA Yahaya Cholli
LP Umar Mustapha Madawaki
New Nigeria Peoples Party Sa'ad Mohammed Chubado Tahir
NRM Maina Aliyu Abba
PDP Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri
PRP Ibrahim Baba-inna
SDP Umar Ardo
ZLP Amron Dadou
Total votes 100.0%
Turnout

By senatorial district

The results of the election by senatorial district.

Senatorial District Aishatu Dahiru Ahmed
APC 		Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri
PDP 		Others Total Valid Votes
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Adamawa Central Senatorial District[f] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Adamawa North Senatorial District[g] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Adamawa South Senatorial District[h] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Totals TBD TBD% TBD TBD% TBD TBD% TBD

By federal constituency

The results of the election by federal constituency.

Federal Constituency Aishatu Dahiru Ahmed
APC 		Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri
PDP 		Others Total Valid Votes
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Demsa/Numan/Lamurde Federal Constituency[i] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Fufore/Song Federal Constituency[j] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Gombi/Hong Federal Constituency[k] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Guyuk/Shelleng Federal Constituency[l] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Madagali/Michika Federal Constituency[m] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Maiha/Mubi North/Mubi South Federal Constituency[n] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Mayo Belwa/Ganye/Toungo/Jada Federal Constituency[o] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Yola North/Yola South/Girei Federal Constituency[p] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD

By local government area

The results of the election by local government area.

LGA Aishatu Dahiru Ahmed
APC 		Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri
PDP 		Others Total Valid Votes Turnout Percentage
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Demsa TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Fufore TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Ganye TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Girei TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Gombi TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Guyuk TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Jada TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Lamurde TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Madagali TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Maiha TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Michika TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Mubi North TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Mubi South TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Numan TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Shelleng TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Song TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Toungo TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Yola North TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Yola South TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %


See also

Notes

  1. ^ This figure is based on 876,387 (the number of accredited voters); 869,106 voters (39.57%) cast votes (validly or invalidly) while 853,819 voters (38.87%) cast valid votes. Another turnout metric used by INEC is based on Permanent Voter Card-holding voters: either the percent of Permanent Voter Card-holding voters that were accredited to vote (44.47%) or the percent of Permanent Voter Card-holding voters that cast a vote—either validly or invalidly (44.10%); also used is the percent of Permanent Voter Card-holding voters that cast valid votes (43.33%).
  2. ^ AfricaElects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
  3. ^ EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
  4. ^ The original deadline was 3 June; however, INEC pushed it back to 9 June at the behest of parties.[73]
  5. ^ The original deadline was 9 March; however, INEC pushed it back to 16 March.[74]
  6. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Fufore, Girei, Gombi, Hong, Song, Yola North, and Yola South.
  7. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Madagali, Maiha, Michika, Mubi North, and Mubi South.
  8. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Demsa, Ganye, Guyuk, Jada, Lamurde, Mayo-Belwa, Numan, Shelleng, and Toungo.
  9. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Demsa, Numan, and Lamurde.
  10. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Fufore and Song.
  11. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Gombi and Hong.
  12. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Guyuk and Shelleng.
  13. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Madagali and Michika.
  14. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Maiha, Mubi North, and Mubi South.
  15. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Mayo-Belwa, Ganye, Toungo, and Jada.
  16. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Yola North, Yola South, and Girei.

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