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Opinion polling for the 2015 Portuguese legislative election

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In the run up to the 2015 Portuguese legislative election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous general election, held on 5 June 2011, to the day the next election was held, on 4 October 2015.

Graphical summary

15-day average trend line of poll results from June 2011 to the present day, with each line's colour corresponding to a political party.

Party vote

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

Date Polling Firm Sample size PSD PS CDS-PP CDU BE MPT L/TDA PDR PàF[a] Others Lead
style="background:Template:Social Democratic Party (Portugal)/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Socialist Party (Portugal)/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:CDS – People's Party/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Democratic Unity Coalition/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Left Bloc/meta/color;"|
4 Oct 2015 2015 Legislative Election 55.9% w.PàF 32.3 w.PàF 8.3 10.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 38.6 8.4 6.3
4 Oct Aximage[b] w.PàF 32.3 w.PàF 8.9 9.4 40.2 9.2 7.9
4 Oct Eurosondagem[b] 46,626 w.PàF 31.3 w.PàF 7.9 9.3 38.3 13.2 7.0
4 Oct Intercampus[b] 17,726 w.PàF 31.7 w.PàF 8.5 10.2 39.2 10.4 7.5
4 Oct UCP–CESOP[b] 25,898 w.PàF 32.5 w.PàF 8.0 9.5 1.0 40.5 8.5 8.0
Exit polls
26 Sep–1 Oct Aximage 1,387 w.PàF 32.5 w.PàF 9.2 9.0 39.1 10.2 6.6
26–30 Sep UCP–CESOP[c] 1,070 w.PàF 34.0 w.PàF 10.0 8.0 39.0 9.0 5.0
22–30 Sep Intercampus 1,013 w.PàF 32.9 w.PàF 8.8 7.9 0.5 0.5 1.7 37.2 10.5 4.3
29 Sep Aximage[c] 200 w.PàF 31.8 w.PàF 8.1 7.1 40.3 12.7 8.5
26–29 Sep Intercampus[c] 1,008 w.PàF 32.1 w.PàF 8.4 7.9 38.4 13.2 6.3
25–29 Sep UCP–CESOP[c] 1,010 w.PàF 33.0 w.PàF 11.0 8.0 39.0 9.0 6.0
24–29 Sep Eurosondagem 2,067 w.PàF 32.7 w.PàF 9.4 6.7 37.7 13.5 5.0
22–29 Sep Marktest 1,607 w.PàF 28.6 w.PàF 9.3 8.7 0.8 0.7 41.0 10.9 12.4
28 Sep Aximage[c] 200 w.PàF 32.1 w.PàF 8.2 7.1 39.0 13.6 6.9
25–28 Sep Intercampus[c] 1,008 w.PàF 31.6 w.PàF 8.2 7.9 38.8 13.5 7.2
24–28 Sep UCP–CESOP[c] 1,071 w.PàF 34.0 w.PàF 10.0 7.0 40.0 9.0 6.0
27 Sep Aximage[c] 199 w.PàF 31.8 w.PàF 8.4 7.1 38.4 14.3 6.6
26–27 Sep UCP–CESOP 3,302 w.PàF 32.0 w.PàF 9.0 9.0 1.0 1.0 38.0 10.0 6.0
24–27 Sep Intercampus[c] 1,025 w.PàF 32.1 w.PàF 9.1 7.5 37.9 13.4 5.8
23–27 Sep UCP–CESOP[c] 1,075 w.PàF 34.0 w.PàF 9.0 7.0 41.0 9.0 7.0
26 Sep Aximage[c] 200 w.PàF 32.3 w.PàF 8.6 7.0 37.9 14.2 5.6
23–26 Sep Intercampus[c] 1,025 w.PàF 33.0 w.PàF 9.0 6.7 38.1 13.2 5.1
22–26 Sep UCP–CESOP[c] 936 w.PàF 33.0 w.PàF 8.0 7.0 43.0 9.0 10.0
25 Sep Aximage[c] w.PàF 32.3 w.PàF 37.7 30.0 5.4
22–25 Sep Intercampus[c] 1,025 w.PàF 32.8 w.PàF 8.9 6.7 0.3 1.1 37.5 12.7 4.7
21–25 Sep UCP–CESOP[c] 1,027 w.PàF 35.0 w.PàF 8.0 7.0 42.0 8.0 7.0
24 Sep Aximage[c] w.PàF 32.6 w.PàF 37.7 29.7 5.1
21–24 Sep Intercampus[c] 1,024 w.PàF 32.3 w.PàF 9.2 6.1 1.1 37.0 14.3 4.7
20–24 Sep UCP–CESOP[c] 1,046 w.PàF 34.0 w.PàF 9.0 7.0 41.0 9.0 7.0
18–24 Sep Aximage 710 w.PàF 32.0 w.PàF 9.0 7.1 37.9 14.0 5.9
23 Sep Aximage[c] 100 w.PàF 33.4 w.PàF 7.6 6.5 37.0 15.5 3.6
20–23 Sep Intercampus[c] 1,017 w.PàF 32.9 w.PàF 7.8 6.0 37.9 15.4 5.0
19–23 Sep UCP–CESOP[c] 891 w.PàF 35.0 w.PàF 9.0 8.0 40.0 8.0 5.0
17–23 Sep Eurosondagem 1,548 w.PàF 36.0 w.PàF 10.1 5.0 1.5 1.9 35.5 10.0 0.5
22 Sep Aximage[c] 103 w.PàF 34.3 w.PàF 7.9 6.2 36.3 15.3 2.0
19–22 Sep Intercampus[c] 1,007 w.PàF 34.1 w.PàF 8.3 4.8 38.9 13.9 4.8
18–22 Sep UCP–CESOP[c] 828 w.PàF 34.0 w.PàF 10.0 8.0 40.0 8.0 6.0
21 Sep Aximage[c] w.PàF 34.7 w.PàF 35.9 29.4 1.2
18–21 Sep Intercampus[c] 1,005 w.PàF 35.7 w.PàF 7.3 4.4 38.9 13.7 3.2
17–21 Sep UCP–CESOP[c] 738 w.PàF 35.0 w.PàF 8.0 7.0 40.0 10.0 5.0
20 Sep Aximage[c] w.PàF 34.8 w.PàF 35.6 29.6 0.8
18–20 Sep Intercampus[c] 733 w.PàF 37.1 w.PàF 6.3 4.0 40.1 12.5 3.0
19 Sep Aximage[c] w.PàF 34.9 w.PàF 35.6 29.5 0.7
16–19 Sep UCP–CESOP[c] 613 w.PàF 35.0 w.PàF 8.0 7.0 40.0 10.0 5.0
18 Sep Aximage[c] w.PàF 35.1 w.PàF 8.4 5.7 35.5 15.3 0.4
15–18 Sep UCP–CESOP[c] 678 w.PàF 34.0 w.PàF 8.0 8.0 40.0 10.0 6.0
14–17 Sep UCP–CESOP[c] 647 w.PàF 34.0 w.PàF 7.0 8.0 41.0 10.0 7.0
13–17 Sep Aximage 704 w.PàF 34.7 w.PàF 8.3 5.8 35.3 16.0 0.6
11–16 Sep Eurosondagem 1,867 w.PàF 35.5 w.PàF 10.3 5.2 1.8 2.2 34.0 11.0 1.5
4–7 Sep Aximage 602 w.PàF 33.3 w.PàF 8.5 4.6 1.6 1.8 38.9 11.3 5.6
27 Aug–2 Sep Eurosondagem 1,040 w.PàF 36.0 w.PàF 10.4 4.6 1.7 2.3 35.0 10.0 1.0
29 Jul–4 Aug Eurosondagem 1,030 w.PàF 36.3 w.PàF 10.0 5.0 1.7 2.3 34.8 9.9 1.5
12–16 Jul Aximage 607 w.PàF 38.0 w.PàF 7.5 4.0 1.3 1.4 37.8 10.0 0.2
2–7 Jul Eurosondagem 1,025 w.PàF 36.7 w.PàF 10.2 4.8 1.9 2.5 34.6 9.3 2.1
26 Jun–4 Jul Intercampus 1,014 w.PàF 37.6 w.PàF 11.0 6.0 0.9 0.6 0.8 32.7 10.4 4.9
15–21 Jun Pitagórica 523 w.PàF 33.5 w.PàF 10.1 3.6 1.3 1.6 36.4 13.5 2.9
13–16 Jun UCP–CESOP 1,048 w.PàF 37.0 w.PàF 10.0 8.0 38.0 7.0 1.0
4–9 Jun Eurosondagem 1,030 w.PàF 36.9 w.PàF 10.5 4.5 2.0 2.7 33.3 10.1 3.6
31 May–4 Jun Aximage 598 w.PàF 38.0 w.PàF 7.5 4.0 1.2 2.1 37.2 10.0 0.8
7–12 May Eurosondagem 1,021 w.PàF 38.1 w.PàF 10.3 4.8 1.8 2.5 33.6 8.9 4.5
7–10 May Aximage 605 w.PàF 37.3 w.PàF 7.7 4.2 2.0 2.6 37.2 9.0 0.1
9–15 Apr Eurosondagem 1,025 26.7 37.5 8.0 10.2 4.3 2.0 2.8 — 8.5 10.8
4–8 Apr Aximage 602 30.5 36.9 6.0 9.2 3.5 1.7 3.8 — 8.4 6.4
5–10 Mar Eurosondagem 1,005 25.2 38.1 8.1 9.6 4.4 2.1 3.0 — 9.5 12.9
3–6 Mar Aximage 600 28.9 36.1 6.1 10.7 4.0 1.6 4.4 — 8.2 7.2
18–25 Feb Eurosondagem[1] 1,515 w.PàF 37.5 w.PàF 9.6 4.2 2.1 2.5 35.0 9.1 2.5
18–25 Feb Eurosondagem[2] 1,515 27.8 36.5 7.7 10.0 4.4 2.3 2.7 Did not exist 8.6 8.7
5–11 Feb Eurosondagem 1,015 26.7 38.1 6.9 9.0 4.0 2.2 3.0 10.1 11.4
4–8 Feb Aximage 608 30.2 36.7 5.3 9.2 3.8 2.5 5.2 7.1 6.5
8–14 Jan Eurosondagem 1,010 26.9 37.9 7.9 9.3 3.5 2.0 2.5 10.0 11.0
9–12 Jan Aximage 601 30.9 36.9 4.7 7.7 3.5 3.0 5.2 8.1 6.0
2015
4–10 Dec Eurosondagem 1,036 25.2 37.5 7.3 10.1 3.3 1.7 2.2 Did not exist 12.7 12.3
1–4 Dec Aximage 607 31.0 37.4 5.1 7.6 5.2 2.9 4.1 6.7 6.4
6–11 Nov Eurosondagem 1,022 25.3 36.9 7.7 10.4 3.6 1.0 1.5 13.6 10.6
7–10 Nov Aximage 603 31.1 38.5 5.2 7.9 6.0 2.1 2.1 7.1 7.4
11–13 Oct UCP–CESOP 1,064 28.0 45.0 4.0 10.0 4.0 9.0 17.0
2–7 Oct Eurosondagem 1,021 26.2 34.8 8.0 10.5 4.0 2.1 1.6 12.8 8.6
1–4 Oct Aximage 609 27.4 40.2 6.1 9.2 7.7 1.1 8.3 12.8
4–9 Sep Eurosondagem 1,011 28.0 33.0 7.5 10.7 4.3 3.3 1.7 Did not exist 11.5 5.0
31 Aug–3 Sep Aximage 602 28.6 30.9 8.4 11.9 5.7 14.5 2.3
31 Jul–6 Aug Eurosondagem 1,033 27.8 32.1 7.0 11.0 4.5 3.6 1.9 12.1 4.3
25–31 Jul Pitagórica[d] 504 26.8 33.9 5.1 13.0 3.1 3.1 15.0 7.1
25–31 Jul Pitagórica[e] 504 28.1 30.0 6.9 12.7 4.2 3.5 14.6 1.9
3–9 Jul Eurosondagem 1,014 27.5 32.5 6.6 11.1 4.9 4.0 2.0 11.4 5.0
4–7 Jul Aximage 593 27.2 31.0 8.3 10.7 6.9 15.9 3.8
2–5 Jun Eurosondagem 1,025 26.1 33.0 6.9 11.8 4.8 4.6 2.0 10.8 6.9
1–4 Jun Aximage 608 24.9 32.0 7.8 13.0 6.0 12.7 7.1
30 May–1 Jun Pitagórica[d] 506 27.5 35.2 6.2 13.6 4.4 3.3 9.8 7.7
30 May–1 Jun Pitagórica[e] 506 28.0 30.6 6.3 14.4 4.8 3.7 12.2 2.6
25 May 2014 2014 EP Elections 33.8% w.AP 31.5 w.AP 12.7 4.6 7.1 2.2 27.7 14.3 3.8
19–24 May Intercampus 4,004 28.7 29.1 2.4 11.4 5.4 Did not exist 23.0 0.4
14–22 May Aximage 1,507 29.0 36.2 7.3 10.3 6.5 10.7 7.2
1–7 May Eurosondagem 1,005 26.9 38.0 8.1 10.4 6.6 10.0 11.1
2–5 May Aximage 605 30.5 36.2 6.8 10.5 6.6 9.4 5.7
12–14 Apr UCP–CESOP 1,117 30.0 36.0 4.0 12.0 7.0 11.0 6.0
9–12 Apr Aximage 613 31.5 36.1 6.1 11.8 6.4 8.1 4.6
3–9 Apr Eurosondagem 1,011 25.2 37.3 8.1 10.9 7.5 11.0 12.1
25–29 Mar Pitagórica 506 27.6 39.0 7.6 10.3 6.9 8.6 11.4
6–12 Mar Eurosondagem 1,021 26.6 36.6 8.4 11.1 6.9 10.4 10.0
8–11 Mar Aximage 587 33.3 36.8 5.7 11.7 5.4 7.1 3.5
24 Feb–1 Mar Pitagórica 506 28.4 37.2 8.7 10.5 4.9 10.2 8.8
9–12 Feb Aximage 604 31.4 38.1 5.4 9.7 5.7 9.7 6.7
6–12 Feb Eurosondagem 1,025 25.6 36.9 7.7 10.5 7.0 12.3 11.3
20–24 Jan Pitagórica 506 25.8 37.8 7.8 11.4 6.6 Did not exist 10.6 12.0
9–15 Jan Eurosondagem 1,010 25.0 37.5 8.0 10.4 6.6 12.5 12.5
7–10 Jan Aximage 601 30.6 38.5 5.8 9.2 6.3 9.6 7.9
2014
10–15 Dec Pitagórica 503 25.7 36.7 9.0 11.2 6.7 Was not polled Did not exist Did not exist Did not exist 10.7 11.0
5–10 Dec Eurosondagem 1,035 26.5 36.5 8.5 10.0 6.5 12.0 10.0
6–9 Dec Aximage 609 29.6 36.4 8.3 9.7 6.3 9.7 6.8
19–21 Nov Marktest 800 25.6 35.6 1.5 17.2 6.5 13.6 10.0
6–9 Nov Aximage 602 28.4 36.9 9.4 10.3 6.8 8.2 8.5
30 Oct–5 Nov Eurosondagem 1,005 25.6 37.3 8.4 11.1 5.9 11.7 11.7
22–25 Oct Marktest 803 26.2 35.8 2.3 16.6 5.5 13.6 9.6
19–22 Oct Aximage 607 26.9 30.2 12.1 12.4 7.2 11.2 3.3
14–19 Oct Pitagórica 506 23.7 36.7 8.6 13.2 6.6 11.2 13.0
2–8 Oct Eurosondagem 1,010 26.9 36.5 8.6 12.1 5.9 10.0 9.6
29 Sep 2013 2013 Local Elections 52.6% 31.4 36.7 3.4 11.1 2.4 0.1 14.8 5.3
28–29 Sep Intercampus 1,000 27.0 39.0 4.0 11.0 7.0 Was not polled 12.0 12.0
26–29 Sep Aximage 609 30.2 34.5 10.3 10.4 5.6 9.0 4.3
17–19 Sep Marktest 801 28.5 36.6 2.5 11.5 7.3 13.6 8.1
5–11 Sep Eurosondagem 1,038 26.5 38.0 6.5 12.5 6.5 10.0 11.5
1–3 Sep Aximage 609 28.0 35.3 7.6 11.8 6.6 10.7 7.3
25–31 Jul Eurosondagem 1,020 24.4 37.4 7.7 12.5 7.5 10.5 13.0
27–29 Jul Universidade Católica 1,096 32.0 35.0 3.0 11.0 7.0 12.0 3.0
24–28 Jul Pitagórica 507 24.1 34.6 8.1 13.1 8.7 11.4 10.5
16–18 Jul Marktest 804 27.6 34.2 5.2 10.8 8.6 13.6 6.6
8–11 Jul Aximage 603 28.0 37.4 5.8 10.5 6.7 11.6 9.4
5–10 Jul Eurosondagem 1,007 25.0 37.0 8.0 12.0 8.0 10.0 12.0
28 Jun–2 Jul Pitagórica 503 23.7 33.9 9.1 13.2 8.9 11.2 10.2
4–7 Jun Aximage 599 23.2 35.5 9.4 11.5 8.4 12.0 12.3
30 May–4 Jun Eurosondagem 1,028 24.8 36.9 7.7 13.0 8.0 9.6 12.1
27–30 May Marktest 802 25.0 34.6 5.6 13.1 8.2 13.5 9.6
23–28 May Pitagórica 506 25.4 32.7 9.5 12.6 9.4 10.4 7.3
7–10 May Aximage 604 26.2 35.5 9.5 9.4 6.9 12.5 9.3
2–8 May Eurosondagem 1,009 25.9 36.0 8.4 12.1 8.8 8.8 10.1
17–20 Apr Pitagórica 503 26.9 28.6 12.0 12.8 8.7 11.0 1.7
5–10 Apr Eurosondagem 1,025 26.5 35.0 8.5 12.5 8.5 9.0 8.5
1–4 Apr Aximage 601 25.3 32.6 9.4 12.0 7.8 12.9 7.3
19–24 Mar Pitagórica 503 25.7 36.7 10.6 11.2 7.9 7.9 11.0
9–11 Mar Universidade Católica 949 28.0 31.0 5.0 12.0 8.0 16.0 3.0
4–6 Mar Aximage 607 25.1 31.6 12.1 12.2 7.1 11.9 6.5
28 Feb–5 Mar Eurosondagem 1,022 27.0 35.2 9.0 12.1 8.0 8.7 8.2
20–24 Feb Pitagórica 503 26.4 35.1 10.7 10.7 8.6 8.5 8.7
5–8 Feb Aximage 602 29.1 32.0 8.7 11.5 6.3 12.4 2.9
30 Jan–5 Feb Eurosondagem 1,011 27.6 34.1 9.5 11.6 8.4 8.8 6.5
22–25 Jan Pitagórica 504 28.6 33.8 10.2 12.0 8.0 7.4 5.2
15–21 Jan Marktest 803 27.9 32.6 5.2 12.4 13.3 8.6 4.7
6–9 Jan Aximage 603 26.3 32.9 10.3 11.8 7.4 11.3 6.6
3–8 Jan Eurosondagem 1,010 26.9 34.3 9.6 10.3 8.8 10.1 7.4
2013
13–18 Dec Pitagórica 511 29.0 34.6 11.4 11.2 8.4 Was not polled Did not exist Did not exist Did not exist 5.4 5.6
5–11 Dec Eurosondagem 1,034 26.4 34.0 10.0 11.0 9.0 9.6 7.6
4–7 Dec Aximage 609 26.8 32.9 8.0 11.0 7.6 13.7 6.1
9–16 Nov Pitagórica 505 26.4 36.2 9.8 9.8 7.5 10.2 9.8
7–13 Nov Eurosondagem 1,033 26.9 35.0 10.1 10.0 9.5 8.5 8.1
30 Oct–6 Nov Aximage 602 26.3 32.1 7.9 9.6 7.5 16.6 5.8
8–13 Oct Pitagórica 503 29.5 34.1 8.3 9.1 7.2 11.8 4.6
4–9 Oct Eurosondagem 1,021 30.0 34.8 10.0 9.5 7.7 8.0 4.8
1–4 Oct Aximage 604 24.9 33.7 7.9 9.5 7.0 17.0 8.8
17–20 Sep Marktest 805 20.2 29.6 5.2 10.1 8.6 26.3 9.4
15–17 Sep UCP–CESOP 1,132 24.0 31.0 7.0 13.0 11.0 14.0 7.0
10–13 Sep Eurosondagem 1,037 33.0 33.7 10.3 9.3 7.0 6.7 0.7
3–6 Sep Aximage 600 33.3 35.4 7.1 7.7 5.3 11.2 2.1
9–14 Aug Eurosondagem 1,011 34.1 33.0 10.1 8.8 6.6 7.4 1.1
17–20 Jul Marktest 803 26.7 25.8 4.4 9.9 6.9 26.3 0.9
5–10 Jul Eurosondagem 1,036 34.6 32.5 10.1 8.7 6.9 7.2 2.1
2–4 Jul Aximage 600 35.0 30.8 7.9 7.8 5.3 13.2 4.2
19–22 Jun Marktest 800 31.3 29.2 2.8 9.5 5.4 21.8 2.1
7–12 Jun Eurosondagem 1,022 34.3 32.1 11.6 9.0 6.9 6.1 2.2
4–6 Jun Aximage 600 36.6 28.2 7.5 10.1 5.0 12.6 8.4
26–28 May UCP–CESOP 1,366 36.0 33.0 6.0 9.0 9.0 7.0 3.0
22–24 May Marktest 807 30.4 29.1 3.5 9.6 8.5 18.9 1.3
10–15 May Eurosondagem 1,011 34.8 31.2 11.6 8.8 6.0 7.6 3.6
2–5 May Aximage 600 36.3 28.9 6.2 9.7 4.3 14.6 7.4
17–21 Apr Marktest 810 31.4 25.4 3.6 10.2 7.8 21.6 6.0
11–17 Apr Eurosondagem 1,036 35.3 30.5 10.7 9.1 6.4 8.0 4.8
3–5 Apr Aximage 600 35.0 27.8 8.7 10.1 4.0 14.4 7.2
19–23 Mar Marktest 802 36.5 20.5 5.2 7.6 6.3 23.9 16.0
8–13 Mar Eurosondagem 1,021 36.0 29.6 12.0 8.5 6.9 7.0 6.4
5–7 Mar Aximage 600 36.2 31.4 6.5 9.2 2.9 13.8 4.8
14–22 Feb Marktest 800 30.2 25.9 3.9 9.3 6.0 24.7 4.3
2–7 Feb Eurosondagem 1,010 35.0 30.0 11.7 8.5 6.5 8.3 5.0
1–4 Feb Aximage 600 37.5 30.3 8.9 8.8 2.8 11.7 7.2
17–22 Jan Marktest 800 37.6 25.2 4.0 6.1 7.7 19.4 12.4
5–10 Jan Eurosondagem 1,064 36.4 30.3 12.1 7.7 6.4 7.1 6.1
3–6 Jan Aximage 600 37.9 30.0 9.3 10.7 2.5 9.6 7.9
2012
7–13 Dec Eurosondagem 1,033 36.0 30.0 12.5 8.8 6.4 Was not polled Did not exist Did not exist Did not exist 6.3 6.0
5–8 Dec Aximage 600 39.5 27.7 9.1 11.3 3.3 9.1 11.8
15–19 Nov Marktest 804 45.4 19.7 5.0 7.9 4.1 17.9 25.7
10–15 Nov Eurosondagem 1,025 36.3 29.6 12.1 9.0 6.1 6.9 6.7
7–10 Nov Aximage 600 41.2 26.8 9.5 10.6 3.5 8.4 14.4
20–25 Oct Eurosondagem 1,032 36.9 29.2 12.5 8.8 6.3 6.3 7.7
18–22 Oct Marktest 809 41.6 19.7 5.3 10.5 4.2 18.7 21.9
3–5 Oct Aximage 600 41.1 26.0 10.2 7.6 5.0 10.1 15.1
22–27 Sep Eurosondagem 1,036 39.3 28.2 12.1 8.2 5.3 6.9 11.1
20–23 Sep Marktest 804 47.1 23.3 6.8 4.0 2.7 16.1 23.8
10–11 Sep UCP–CESOP 1,457 43.0 33.0 6.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 10.0
7–10 Sep Aximage 600 40.9 25.1 7.1 9.0 3.2 14.7 15.8
26–30 Aug Eurosondagem 1,025 39.6 26.9 12.5 8.4 5.5 7.1 12.7
14–19 Jul Eurosondagem 1,022 40.0 26.3 13.1 8.0 5.1 7.5 13.7
5–8 Jul Aximage 600 42.0 24.0 10.3 7.5 5.9 10.3 18.0
26–28 Jun Eurosondagem 1,010 40.8 25.0 13.6 7.7 4.8 8.1 15.8
5 Jun 2011 2011 Legislative Election 58.0% 38.7 28.0 11.7 7.9 5.2 0.4 7.7 10.6

Seat projections

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 116 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of the Republic.

116 seats needed for majority
Date Polling Firm PSD PS CDS–PP CDU BE MPT L/TDA PDR PàF[a] Others
style="background:Template:Social Democratic Party (Portugal)/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Socialist Party (Portugal)/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:CDS – People's Party/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Democratic Unity Coalition/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Left Bloc/meta/color;"|
4 Oct 2015 2015 Legislative Election w.PàF 86 w.PàF 17 19 0 0 0 107 1
4 Oct Eurosondagem w.PàF 84−90 w.PàF 15−18 16−19 0 0−1 0−1 100−108 0
4 Oct Intercampus w.PàF 77−89 w.PàF 12−20 15−23 0 0−1 0 106−118 0−2
4 Oct UCP–CESOP w.PàF 80−88 w.PàF 13−17 16−20 0 0−1 0 108−116 0
Exit polls
24–29 Sep Eurosondagem w.PàF 89−95 w.PàF 19−21 10−15 0 0 0 102−108 0−1
26–27 Sep UCP–CESOP w.PàF 78−95 w.PàF 15−20 12−17 0 0−1 0 99−114 0−1
22–26 Sep UCP–CESOP w.PàF 89 w.PàF 16 8 0 0 1 117 0
21–25 Sep UCP–CESOP w.PàF 91 w.PàF 16 8 0 1 1 113 0
17–23 Sep Eurosondagem w.PàF 97−102 w.PàF 20−22 5−7 0 1 0−2 100−103 0
11–16 Sep Eurosondagem w.PàF 95−101 w.PàF 20−22 6−9 0 1 2 99−102 0
7–12 May Eurosondagem w.PàF 103 w.PàF 21 6 0 1 2 97 0
18–25 Feb Eurosondagem[1] w.PàF 100−105 w.PàF 18−21 4 0 1−2 2 98−103 0
18–25 Feb Eurosondagem[2] 78−87 99−105 13−17 20−21 4−6 0 2−3 2−3 0
2015
5 Jun 2011 2011 Legislative Election 108 74 24 16 8 0 0

Notes

  1. ^ a b The Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the People's Party (CDS–PP) will contest the election in a joint coalition called Portugal Ahead (Portugal à Frente).
  2. ^ a b c d This poll provides data ranges and/or approximations. In order to simplify, the average of these data is given.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai Tracking poll.
  4. ^ a b Hypothesized scenario with António Costa as PS candidate.
  5. ^ a b Hypothesized scenario with António José Seguro as PS candidate.

References

  1. ^ a b Hypothesized scenario if PSD and CDS-PP contest the election in a coalition.
  2. ^ a b Hypothesized scenario if PSD and CDS-PP contest the election separately.
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