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→‎Proposal: detterrent is a euphemism in this context of a decision re systems not strategy, and this new phrasing is entirely truthful.
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===Proposal===
===Proposal===


A December 2006 [[Ministry of Defence (United Kingdom)|Ministry of Defence]] [[white paper]] recommended that the deterrent should be maintained and outlined measures that would do so until the 2040s. It advocated the currently preferred submarine-based system, as it remained the cheapest and most secure deterrent option available.
A December 2006 [[Ministry of Defence (United Kingdom)|Ministry of Defence]] [[white paper]] recommended that the fearsome arsenal of nuclear bombs should be maintained and outlined measures that would do so until the 2040s. It advocated the currently preferred submarine-based system, as it remained the cheapest and most secure deterrent option available.


Costs for this option are estimated at £15-20 billion based on:
Costs for this option are estimated at £15-20 billion based on:

Revision as of 20:18, 14 March 2008

A Trident missile launches from a submerged submarine

The British replacement of Trident is a proposal to replace the existing Vanguard class of four submarines each armed with 16 Trident II submarine-launched ballistic missiles.[1] The government has begun planning a new submarine-based system[2] but there is opposition from those who want to take the opportunity for full nuclear disarmament or replacement with a cheaper nuclear weapon delivery system.[3][4][5]

The term "Trident" is the name of the submarine-launched ballistic missile in British use that delivers a nuclear payload but is also widely used to refer to the UK's collective military nuclear system.[1][6]

Background

Main article: Nuclear weapons and the United Kingdom

Policy

Official policy regarding nuclear weapons is for use as a defensive nuclear deterrent. This refers to the possession of nuclear weapons to deter an enemy nuclear attack with the threat of a retaliatory second strike.

The current reasoning for the deterrent comes from the 1998 Strategic Defence Review:

"We are committed to working towards a safer world in which there is no requirement for nuclear weapons and continue to play a full role in international efforts to strengthen arms control and prevent the proliferation of chemical, biological and nuclear weapons. However, the continuing risk from the proliferation of nuclear weapons, and the certainty that a number of other countries will retain substantial nuclear arsenals, mean that our minimum nuclear deterrent capability, currently represented by Trident, is likely to remain a necessary element of our security."[7]

Since the Manhattan Project produced the first nuclear weapons during World War II, the UK has worked closely with the United States on nuclear strategy. This cooperation was formalised in the 1958 Mutual Defence Agreement (MDA) and has been a key aspect of the special relationship between the two countries.

Trident system

Since the retirement of the last Royal Air Force WE.177 nuclear bomb in 1998, the British nuclear system has been wholly submarine-based. This helps provide deterrent value if an enemy cannot ensure eliminating the entire stockpile in a first strike if a ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) remains undetected.

Since the Strategic Defence Review, the UK has maintained a stockpile of around 200 warheads. In a policy known as "Continuous at Sea Deterrence," at least one Vanguard class SSBN is kept on patrol with up to 16 Trident missiles sharing up to 48 warheads from the stockpile at any given time. The SDR stated this was the minimum adequate deterrent. It is collectively known as the Trident system.[6] The majority of this system is based in Scotland at HM Naval Base Clyde, which includes the Faslane home of the Vanguard submarines and Coulport nuclear depot.

The oldest submarine of the Vanguard class is expected to remain in service until 2017[8] without a refit, prompting consideration of a replacement before the end of the current parliament in 2010 to allow for development time.[6]

Replacement system

Proposal

A December 2006 Ministry of Defence white paper recommended that the fearsome arsenal of nuclear bombs should be maintained and outlined measures that would do so until the 2040s. It advocated the currently preferred submarine-based system, as it remained the cheapest and most secure deterrent option available.

Costs for this option are estimated at £15-20 billion based on:

  • £0.25 billion to participate in U.S. Trident D5 missile life extension programme.
  • £11-14 billion for a class of four new SSBNs.
  • £2-3 billion for refurbishing warheads.
  • £2-3 billion for infrastructure.[2]

These cost estimates exclude the Vanguard 5 year life extension and decommissioning, and it is unclear if new Trident missiles will need to be purchased for the life extension programme.[8]

Running costs would be about £1.5 billion per year at 2006 prices.[8]

Trident D5 missile life extension

In 2002 the US Navy awarded a contract for the Trident II D5 Service Life Extension Programme to extend the life of the missiles from the mid-2020s to about 2042, to match the extended life of the US Ohio class submarine. The UK will join this programme to arm a Vanguard submarine class replacement.

Submarines

The paper suggested parts of the existing Trident system be refitted to some extent to prolong their lives. However, the relatively short (five years) life extension potential of the Vanguard class meant that a new class of SSBNs should replace it in the early 2020s. There are suggestions that the new fleet be cut to three hulls if Continuous at Sea Deterrence could still be assured at that number. The first SSBN would take 17 years to be designed and built, making a five year life extension of the Vanguard class necessary. On this basis, a refitted Vanguard class could still shrink by at least one vessel before the first replacement SSBN enters service.[2]

Munitions

The overall warhead stockpile would be reduced from around 200 warheads to 160. The remaining warheads are expected to last until the mid-2020s, with a decision to either replace or refurbish them taken closer to the time. The government-owned nuclear weapons research company Atomic Weapons Establishment would likely play a key role in either, with over £1 billion being invested between 2005 and 2008 to maintain "key skills and facilities."[9] The replacement of the Trident missiles was also deferred, as the UK intends to participate in a US programme to lengthen the missiles' lives from the 2020s through to the 2040s.[2]

Parliamentary support

On 14 March 2007, the Labour government won Commons support for the plans to renew the submarine system. The proposals were passed by the House of Commons by a majority of 248.[10]

Despite a clarification that the vote was just for the concept stage of the new system, 95 Labour MPs rebelled, and it was only passed with the support of the opposition Conservative Party.[10][11]

It was the first time MPs had been given the chance to vote on whether the UK should remain a nuclear power, and the biggest backbench rebellion since the beginning of the 2003 Iraq war.[10]

Another vote is anticipated before the order of the new submarine class in 2014.[11]

Academic review

The Bradford Disarmament Research Centre has received funding for a review of the Government's reasons for replacing Trident,[12] aiming

"to transform the intellectual agenda on Trident replacement through a detailed and critical examination of the government’s rationales for Trident replacement, a number of crucial issues excluded by the government and the wider implications of the decision, which require a full and balanced."

Controversy

File:Faslane1.jpg
An anti-nuclear demonstration outside HM Naval Base Clyde

Morality

The possession of nuclear weapons, as a form weapons of mass destruction, has long been criticised in British politics for being immoral, by members of the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament and their supporters. As such, it has been at the core of the peace movement in the UK since the first introduction of nuclear weapons in the 1950s.

The Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament has historically been a significant anti-nuclear lobby group since its formation in 1957. As a result, the potential replacement of Trident has naturally been criticised by the CND, coming under their "Scrap Trident" campaign. More recently in 2006, 20 bishops claimed Trident was "anti-God." Other religious leaders, including Archbishop of Canterbury Rowan Williams, have questioned the morality of replacing Trident.[13][4]

Other groups claim the development of new nuclear weapons would undermine Britain's stance with other countries, such as Iran and North Korea, and international nuclear disarmament in general.[14][4] The UK government insists that there are no plans to enhance the capability of the missiles in terms of payload, range or accuracy, in order to avoid such diplomatic problems.[15]

Strategic value

Another reason cited is the claim that the nuclear environment has become less dangerous since the development of the deterrent during the Cold War. Consequently, with a diminished nuclear threat towards Britain, the value of having a deterrent to guard against it has fallen as well. However the Ministry of Defence has a declared policy of sub-strategic use which would see, for example, a limited nuclear strike (e.g. one missile with one limited yield warhead) used as either a deterrent to a country from using chemical or biological weapons or as retaliation for having used them.[16][17][18]

Outspoken critics on this basis include former Defence Secretaries Malcolm Rifkind,[19] Denis Healey.[20] and Michael Portillo.[21]

Legality

On 19 December 2005 Rabinder Singh QC and Professor Christine Chinkin of Matrix Chambers handed down an opinion which addressed

"whether Trident or a likely replacement to Trident breaches customary international law and ... whether the replacement of Trident would breach the Non-Proliferation Treaty 1967 (NPT), article VI"[22]

Singh and Chinkin found that:

  1. The use of the Trident system would breach customary international law, in particular because it would infringe the "intransgressible" requirement that a distinction must be drawn between combatants and non-combatants.
  2. The replacement of Trident is likely to constitute a breach of article VI of the NPT.
  3. Such a breach would be a material breach of that treaty.[23]

The opinion reinforces claims made by Greenpeace and other groups claim that new development of nuclear weapons would violate the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, specifically Article 6:[24]

"Each of the Parties to the Treaty undertakes to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament, and on a treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control."[25]

Cost and timing

Several groups, such as the Scottish National Party and some trade unions, prefer the money to be spent on public services.[26][5]

Greenpeace has claimed the recent £1 billion investment in AWE is for secret initial work on developing a replacement.[24]

In evidence to the House of Commons Defence Select Committee on 23 January 2007, the US nuclear expert Richard Garwin said that the plans were "premature and wasteful", and that delaying the decision for 15 years following inexpensive engine repairs would save £5bn. He added that pressure to commission a new fleet of submarines was rooted in the shipbuilding industry's urge to land lucrative contracts.[27].

References

  1. ^ a b ""Q&A: Trident replacement"". BBC News. 11 November 2006. Retrieved 2006-12-01. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  2. ^ a b c d ""The Future of the United Kingdom's Nuclear Deterrent"" (PDF). Ministry of Defence. 4 December 2006. Retrieved 2006-12-05. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  3. ^ ""Trident debate to top CND agenda"". BBC News. 14 October 2006. Retrieved 2006-12-01. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  4. ^ a b c ""Bishops against Trident options"". BBC News. 22 November 2006. Retrieved 2006-12-01. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  5. ^ a b ""Unions oppose replacing Trident"". BBC News. 13 September 2006. Retrieved 2006-12-01. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  6. ^ a b c ""The Future of the UK's Strategic Nuclear Deterrent"" (PDF). House of Commons Defence Committee. 30 June 2006. Retrieved 2006-12-01. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  7. ^ ""Strategic Defence Review"" (PDF). Ministry of Defence. July 1998. Retrieved 2006-12-01. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  8. ^ a b c ""The Future of the UK's Strategic Nuclear Deterent: the White Paper"" (PDF). House of Commons Defence Committee. 7 March 2007. Retrieved 2007-03-15. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  9. ^ ""Written Ministerial Statements"". House of Commons. 19 July 2005. Retrieved 2006-12-01. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  10. ^ a b c ""Trident plan wins Commons support"". BBC News. 15 March 2007. Retrieved 2007-03-15. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  11. ^ a b ""Blair wins Trident nuclear arsenal vote"". ABC News. 15 March 2007. Retrieved 2007-03-15. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  12. ^ Bradford Trident Replacement Review Project.
  13. ^ ""Archbishop questions Trident plan "". BBC News. 5 December 2006. Retrieved 2006-12-06. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  14. ^ ""Trident cash risks terror escalation, warns MEP"". Green Party. 20 July 2005. Retrieved 2006-12-02. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  15. ^ ""Why do Trident submarines have to be replaced?"". BBC News. 15 March 2007. Retrieved 2007-03-19. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  16. ^ Paul Rogers (July 2006). "Big boats and bigger skimmers: determining Britain's role in the Long War". International Affairs. 82 (4). Blackwell Publishing.
  17. ^ "BBC Breakfast with Frost interview: Geoff Hoon, Secretary of State for Defence". BBC. 2 February 2003. Retrieved 2007-02-02.
  18. ^ "Weapons of Mass Destruction". Column 8W. Hansard. 27 October 2003. Retrieved 2007-02-02.
  19. ^ "Rifkind slams 'dumb' plan to axe Trident". The Scotsman. 21 June 2006. Retrieved 2006-12-02.
  20. ^ "UK needs no nuclear arms - Healey". BBC News. 7 July 2006. Retrieved 2006-12-02.
  21. ^ "Scrap UK nuclear arms - Portillo". BBC News. 19 June, 2005. Retrieved 2007-03-16. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  22. ^ http://www.peacerights.org/reports/195/ (paragraph 1)
  23. ^ http://www.peacerights.org/reports/195/ (paragraph 2)
  24. ^ a b ""Nuclear claims over weapons site"". BBC News. 23 October 2006. Retrieved 2006-12-02. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  25. ^ ""Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons"". Federation of American Scientists. Retrieved 2006-12-02.
  26. ^ ""Trident missile costs 'immoral'"". BBC News. 28 September 2006. Retrieved 2006-12-02. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  27. ^ "Trident replacement 'premature'". The Guardian. 24 January 2007. Retrieved 2007-01-27. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)

See also

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