Northern Territory general election, 2016
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The 2016 Northern Territory general election was held on Saturday, 27 August 2016 to elect all 25 members of the Legislative Assembly in the unicameral Northern Territory Parliament.[1]
Legislation passed in February 2016 to change the voting method of single-member electorates from full-preferential voting to optional preferential voting.[2] Electoral districts were redistributed in 2015. The election was conducted by the Northern Territory Electoral Commission.
The incumbent Country Liberal Party, led by Chief Minister Adam Giles, was defeated by the Australian Labor Party, led by Michael Gunner. Based on projections from the ABC, the CLP suffered the worst defeat of a sitting government in the history of the Territory, and one of the worst defeats of a sitting state or territory government since Federation. From 11 seats at dissolution (and 16 at the 2012 election), the CLP was cut down to only three seats to Labor's 15.
Contents
Results[edit]
|
Northern Territory general election, 27 August 2016[3] |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enrolled voters | 135,506 | |||||
| Votes cast | 83,115 | Turnout | 61.9 | |||
| Informal votes | 1,628 | Informal | 2.0 | |||
| Summary of votes by party | ||||||
| Party | Primary votes | % | Swing | Seats | Change | |
| Labor | 35,055 | 42.7 | +6.2 | 15 | +8 | |
| Country Liberal | 26,011 | 31.7 | −19.0 | 1 | −10 | |
| 1 Territory | 2,864 | 3.5 | +3.5 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Greens | 2,311 | 2.8 | −0.5 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Shooters and Fishers | 381 | 0.5 | +0.5 | 0 | ±0 | |
| CEC | 118 | 0.1 | +0.1 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Independent | 15,442 | 18.8 | +12.7 | 3 | −4 | |
| In doubt | 6 | |||||
| Total | 82,182 | 25 | ||||
Independents: Robyn Lambley (Araluen), Kezia Purick (Goyder), Gerry Wood (Nelson)
Results are as of 4.30pm on Monday 29 August.
Labor went into the election as unbackable favourites, with opinion polling (see below) showing a massive swing against the CLP. As expected, Labor swept the CLP from power in a massive landslide. ABC election analyst Antony Green called the election for Labor at 6:41 pm Darwin time, less than an hour after counting began.[4] Giles called Gunner to concede defeat just after 9 pm, and Gunner publicly claimed victory an hour later.[5] Only one seat had been definitively called for the CLP by Sunday morning, and the once-dominant party was leading in only one other seat.
Preliminary results showed the CLP losing a number of seats on swings of well over 10 percent. In some seats, the CLP suffered swings virtually unheard of in Australian politics. For example, Bess Price, one of several indigenous CLP members elected in 2012, was routed in her seat of Stuart, suffering a swing of over 35 percent to Labor according to ABC projections. If this projection holds, Stuart would be the safest seat in the Territory. The CLP was all but wiped out in the Darwin/Palmerston area, losing all but one seat there. This was all the more remarkable since Labor had historically run dead in Palmerston for most of the Legislative Assembly's existence. Labor picked up two Palmerston seats in its 2005 landslide, only to lose them both to the CLP in 2008 after their majorities were redistributed away.
By Sunday morning, Giles was trailing in his own seat of Braitling. Giles went into the election sitting on a seemingly insurmountable majority of 19.6 percent after the redistribution. However, the ABC showed him trailing Labor challenger Dale Wakefield with counting still underway—putting Giles in danger of becoming the second Majority Leader/Chief Minister to lose his own seat. Additionally, if Giles loses, the CLP will be completely shut out in its other traditional stronghold of Alice Springs for the first time ever.
Seats changing hands[edit]
Members in italics did not re-contest their Legislative Assembly seats at this election.
| Seat | Pre-2016 Election | Swing | Post 2016 Election | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Member | Margin | Margin | Member | Party | ||||
| Arafura | Country Liberal | Francis Xavier Kurrupuwu | 2.4 | 7.9 | 5.5 | Lawrence Costa | Labor | ||
| Arnhem | Independent | Larisa Lee | 4.3 (CLP) | 18.9 | 14.6 | Selena Uibo | Labor | ||
| Brennan | Country Liberal | Peter Chandler | 14.0 | 16.5 | 2.5 | Tony Sievers | Labor | ||
| Drysdale | Country Liberal | Lia Finocchiaro | 11.5 | 17.4 | 5.9 | Eva Lawler | Labor | ||
| Fong Lim | Country Liberal | Dave Tollner | 0.2 | 9.3 | 9.1 | Jeff Collins | Labor | ||
| Namatjira | Independent | Alison Anderson | 20.8 (CLP) | 30.7 | 9.9 | Chansey Paech | Labor | ||
| Port Darwin | Country Liberal | John Elferink | 9.7 | 12.8 | 3.1 | Paul Kirby | Labor | ||
| Sanderson | Country Liberal | Peter Styles | 3.1 | 14.3 | 11.2 | Kate Worden | Labor | ||
| Stuart | Country Liberal | Bess Price | 5.5 | 34.3 | 28.7 | Scott McConnell | Labor | ||
Seats in doubt[edit]
| Seat | Incumbent | Swing | Challenger | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Member | Margin | Margin | Candidate | Party | ||||
| Blain | Independent | Nathan Barrett | 13.2 (CLP) | N/A | Mills ahead 1.7 | Terry Mills | Independent | ||
| Braitling | Country Liberal | Adam Giles | 19.6 | 19.7 | ALP ahead 0.1 | Dale Wakefield | Labor | ||
| Daly | Country Liberal | Gary Higgins | 5.2 | −2.5 | CLP ahead 2.7 | Anthony Venes | Labor | ||
| Karama | Independent | Delia Lawrie | 6.4 (ALP) | −5.9 | ALP ahead 0.5 | Ngaree Ah Kit | Labor | ||
| Katherine | Country Liberal | Willem Westra van Holthe | 22.3 | 22.8 | ALP ahead 0.6 | Sandra Nelson | Labor | ||
| Nhulunbuy | Labor | Lynne Walker | 13.7 | −14.2 | Guyula ahead 0.6 | Yingiya Mark Guyula | Independent | ||
Timing[edit]
The timing of the election is dictated by the Northern Territory Electoral Act. Section 23 of the Act fixes polling day as the fourth Saturday in August of the fourth year after the previous election (unless that election had been an extraordinary election). The last election was in 2012, and was a regular election. Therefore, the next election was scheduled for Saturday, 27 August 2016.[6]
An earlier election was possible in the event that a motion of no confidence in the government was passed by the assembly. Section 24 of the act states that an early election can be called if a motion of no confidence in the NT government is passed by the assembly, and no new government can secure the assembly's confidence within eight days. The original confidence motion must be tabled with at least three days' notice.[7] Alternatively, section 25 mandates an early election if the assembly rejects an appropriation bill.[8]
Background[edit]
The Terry Mills-led CLP opposition defeated the Paul Henderson-led Labor government at the 2012 election, winning 16 of 25 seats.
Adam Giles was elected by the CLP party-room to replace Mills as Chief Minister and CLP leader less than a year later at the 2013 CLP leadership ballot.[9] Giles became the first indigenous head of government of an Australian state or territory.[10][11]
Resulting from the 2015 CLP leadership ballot on 2 February, the possibility of a confidence motion being put to the assembly was raised by Willem Westra van Holthe to take over the leadership from Giles, however Giles managed to retain the leadership and continued to govern.[12]
Five months later, in July 2015, CLP member Kezia Purick defected from the party, the fourth parliamentarian to leave the CLP since the previous election, reducing the CLP to minority government.[13] Giles raised the possibility of an early election on 20 July stating that he would "love" to call a snap poll, but that it was "pretty much impossible to do". Crossbenchers dismissed the notion of voting against a confidence motion to bring down the government.[14]
Redistribution[edit]
A redistribution of the Northern Territory's electoral boundaries commenced in February 2015, with draft boundaries released in June. Once finalised, these boundaries will apply to the 2016 general election.[15]
On 16 June 2015, the NTEC released their proposals for redistribution. Major changes included in the proposal were:[16][17]
- A new seat called Spillett would be created in the northern parts of Palmerston
- Alice Springs would lose a seat due to its current three seats being under quota, with Araluen merging with the large rural seat of Stuart to form a new seat, Battarbee.
- Two seats will be renamed: Nhulunbuy would become Milirrpum, and Wanguri would become Somerville
- The two retained districts of Drysdale and Fong Lim would lose over half of their existing electorates
- More minor changes would be made to the boundaries of all but five of the remaining districts
A period of thirty days in which interested parties and individuals could lodge objections ended on 16 July 2015.
On 16 September 2015, the NTEC released their final report into boundaries for 2016 and beyond. The changes that have occurred are less severe than those proposed in June:[18]
- The proposed new seat of Spillett was created to the north of Palmerston but has a slightly different composition
- Araluen and Stuart were retained with the division of Greatorex being abolished. Its electors were transferred to Araluen, Braitling and Namatjira
- The seats of Nhulunbuy and Wanguri were retained
- Drysdale and Fong Lim saw smaller changes than previously proposed
- Four seats remained completely unchanged by the proposals – Karama, Katherine, Nightcliff and Sanderson
Following the completion of the final report, it was tabled in the assembly on 16 September 2015.[19]
Election timetable[edit]
- 8 August – Issue of the writ
- 10 August – Close of electoral roll
- 12 August – Close of candidate nominations
- 15 August – Postal and early voting commences
- 27 August – Election day
- 9 September – Deadline for the receipt of postal votes
- 12 September – Anticipated date for declaration of election result
- 3 October – Anticipated date for return of the writ[20]
Opinion polling[edit]
An opinion poll conducted by ReachTEL and commissioned by The Australian which surveyed 1036 residents via robocall on the afternoon of Sunday 1 March 2015, a month after the 2015 CLP leadership spill, across all 18 electorates in Darwin, Palmerston and Alice Springs indicated a 17.6-point two-party swing against the incumbent CLP government since the last election. Had this been repeated at a general election, it would have delivered a comprehensive victory for Labor.[21][22][23]
The Northern Territory News commissioned its own MediaReach poll in late July 2016, more than a week before the writ was formally dropped. It showed the two-party swing had further widened to 19 points in favour of the opposition Labor Party, which would result in a landslide Labor victory if repeated on election day. It also showed Labor leading by substantial margins in the Darwin area, including a 63–37 percent two-party margin in Palmerston, a conservative bastion for most of the last four decades. This suggested that the CLP was in danger of losing most, if not all, of its parliamentary representation in the Darwin/Palmerston area. The same poll also showed that Labor leader Michael Gunner had a substantial lead over Giles as preferred Chief Minister.[24]
In what proved to be a warning sign, the 2016 federal election saw large swings against the CLP in the Territory's two seats. Solomon, which is largely coextensive with the Darwin/Palmerston area, saw CLP incumbent Natasha Griggs rolled by Labor challenger Luke Gosling on a swing of more than seven points. Warren Snowdon, the Labor member for Lingiari, which covers the rest of the Territory, picked up a healthy swing of seven points.
| Date | Primary vote | TPP vote | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLP | ALP | GRN | OTH | CLP | ALP | |
| 27–29 Jul 20161 | 26% | 36% | 6% | 29% | 36% | 64% |
| 1 Mar 20152 | 34.4% | 41.8% | 8.8% | 15.0% | 38.2% | 61.8% |
| 25 Aug 2012 election | 50.6% | 36.5% | 3.3% | 9.6% | 55.8% | 44.2% |
- ^ 3% of voters recorded their intentions as undecided.
- ^ 13.7% of voters were initially undecided as to their primary vote, with the CLP on 30.2%, the ALP on 38.0%, the Greens on 6.9% and others on 11.3%. Asked which party the 13.7% undecided had "even a slight leaning" for: 30.8% to the CLP, 27.9% to the ALP, 13.7% to the Greens and 27.7% to others. As a proportion of 13.7%, this equated to CLP 4.2%, ALP 3.8%, Greens 1.9%, other 3.8%, which have been added to the initial totals in the table.
Retiring MPs[edit]
Country Liberal[edit]
- Matt Conlan MLA (Greatorex) – announced retirement 17 March 2015[25]
- John Elferink MLA (Port Darwin) – announced retirement 19 November 2015[26]
- Dave Tollner MLA (Fong Lim) – lost preselection for Spillett 28 November 2015[27]
Independent[edit]
- Alison Anderson MLA (Namatjira) – elected as CLP; announced retirement 3 August 2016 [28]
- Nathan Barrett MLA (Blain) – elected as CLP; announced retirement 12 June 2016[29]
Candidates[edit]
Sitting members are in bold. Successful candidates are highlighted in the relevant colour.
| Electorate | Held By | Labor candidate | CLP candidate | Greens candidate | 1TP candidate | Other candidates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arafura | CLP | Lawrence Costa | Francis Xavier Kurrupuwu | Jon Lotu | Tristan Mungatopi (Ind) | |
| Araluen | CLP | Adam Findlay | Stephen Brown | Robyn Lambley (Ind) | ||
| Arnhem | CLP | Selena Uibo | Ian Gumbula | James Gaykamangu | Lance Lawrence (Ind) Larisa Lee (Ind) |
|
| Barkly | Labor | Gerry McCarthy | Tony Jack | Jack Green (Ind) Elliot McAdam (Ind) |
||
| Blain | CLP | Damian Hale | Marie-Clare Boothby | Gregory Knowles (Ind) Terry Mills (Ind) |
||
| Braitling | CLP | Dale Wakefield | Adam Giles | Dalton Dupuy | Jane Clark (Ind) Alfred Gould (Ind) Eli Melky (Ind) Phil Walcott (Ind) |
|
| Brennan | CLP | Tony Sievers | Peter Chandler | Dorothy Fox | ||
| Casuarina | Labor | Lauren Moss | Giovanna Webb | |||
| Daly | CLP | Anthony Venes | Gary Higgins | Joan Growden | Ian Barry (CEC) Thong Sum Lee (Ind) Regina McCarthy (Ind) Allan McKay (Ind) Kevin Wanganeen (Ind) |
|
| Drysdale | CLP | Eva Lawler | Ben Hosking | Hayden Bray | David Cartwright | Margy Kerle (Ind) Lyle Mackay (Ind) |
| Fannie Bay | Labor | Michael Gunner | Karen Brown | Greg Strettles | ||
| Fong Lim | CLP | Jeff Collins | Tim Dixon | Sue Fraser-Adams | Ilana Eldridge (Ind) | |
| Goyder | CLP | Mick Taylor | Carolyn Reynolds | Billee McGinley | Peter Flynn (CEC) Kezia Purick* (Ind) |
|
| Johnston | Labor | Ken Vowles | Steven Klose | Melanie Ross | ||
| Karama | Labor | Ngaree Ah Kit | Jarred Ilett | Edward Solo | Jimmy Gimini (Ind) Sonja Jebbink (Ind) Trevor Jenkins (-) Delia Lawrie (Ind) |
|
| Katherine | CLP | Sandra Nelson | Willem Westra van Holthe | Braedon Earley | Leon Cellier (Ind) Dean David (Ind) Chris Righton (SFP) |
|
| Namatjira | CLP | Chansey Paech | Heidi Williams | Vincent Forrester | Alan Keeling (Ind) | |
| Nelson | Independent | Kirsty Hunt | Gerard Maley | Brigid McCullough (CEC) Marty Reinhold (SFP) Gerry Wood* (Ind) |
||
| Nhulunbuy | Labor | Lynne Walker | Charles Yunupingu | Jackson Anni (Ind) Yingiya Mark Guyula (Ind) |
||
| Nightcliff | Labor | Natasha Fyles | Ted Dunstan | Matt Haubrick | ||
| Port Darwin | CLP | Paul Kirby | Rohan Kelly | David Cameron | Matthew Baker (Ind) Carol Phayer (Ind) Kenneth Wu (Ind) |
|
| Sanderson | CLP | Kate Worden | Peter Styles | Trudi Andersson | Andrew Arthur (Ind) Thomas Lynch (Ind) |
|
| Spillett | CLP | Phil Tilbrook | Lia Finocchiaro | Jeff Norton | Trudy Campbell (CEC) Sonia Mackay (Ind) Richard Smith (Ind) |
|
| Stuart | CLP | Scott McConnell | Bess Price | Andi Bracey | Maurie Ryan (Ind) | |
| Wanguri | Labor | Nicole Manison | Steven Doherty | Shauna Mounsey (Ind) Jan Pile (Ind) |
Pre-election pendulum[edit]
The following pendulum is known as the Mackerras Pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras. The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in the Legislative Assembly according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two-party-preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.[30]
Incumbent members who have become and remained an independent since the last election are indicated in grey.
Members listed in italics are not re-contesting their seat at the election.
| COUNTRY LIBERAL SEATS | |||
| Marginal | |||
| Fong Lim | Dave Tollner | CLP | 0.2 |
| Arafura | Francis Xavier Kurrupuwu | CLP | 2.4 |
| Sanderson | Peter Styles | CLP | 3.1 |
| Arnhem | Larisa Lee | CLP | 4.3 |
| Daly | Gary Higgins | CLP | 5.2 |
| Stuart | Bess Price | CLP | 5.5 |
| Fairly safe | |||
| Port Darwin | John Elferink | CLP | 9.7 |
| Safe | |||
| Drysdale | Lia Finocchiaro | CLP | 11.5 |
| Blain | Nathan Barrett | CLP | 13.2 |
| Brennan | Peter Chandler | CLP | 14.0 |
| Goyder | Kezia Purick | CLP | 16.0 |
| Spillett | new seat | CLP | 17.9 |
| Braitling | Adam Giles | CLP | 19.6 |
| Araluen | Robyn Lambley | CLP | 20.0 |
| Namatjira | Alison Anderson | CLP | 20.8 |
| Katherine | Willem Westra van Holthe | CLP | 22.3 |
| LABOR SEATS | |||
| Marginal | |||
| Fairly safe | |||
| Fannie Bay | Michael Gunner | ALP | 6.4 |
| Karama | Delia Lawrie | ALP | 6.4 |
| Johnston | Ken Vowles | ALP | 6.6 |
| Wanguri | Nicole Manison | ALP | 6.9 |
| Barkly | Gerry McCarthy | ALP | 7.6 |
| Casuarina | Lauren Moss | ALP | 8.9 |
| Nightcliff | Natasha Fyles | ALP | 9.2 |
| Safe | |||
| Nhulunbuy | Lynne Walker | ALP | 13.7 |
| INDEPENDENT SEATS | |||
| Nelson | Gerry Wood | IND | 9.2 v CLP |
See also[edit]
References[edit]
- ^ Green, Antony (27 May 2013). "Blog: Timetable for Future Elections". ABC News. Australia.
- ^ Antony Green (2016-02-11). "Northern Territory Adopts Optional Preferential Voting and Bans Campaigning Near Polling Places". Blogs.abc.net.au. Retrieved 2016-08-11.
- ^ "Legislative Assembly General Election". Northern Territory Electoral Commission. 27 August 2016.
- ^ abcnewsNT (27 August 2016). "NT Election". Twitter (Tweet).
- ^ La Canna, Xavier (28 August 2016). "NT election: Labor leader Michael Gunner says Territorians have rejected chaos after landslide win". ABC News. Australia.
- ^ "Electoral Act section 23". Northern Territory Consolidated Acts. Retrieved 21 July 2015.
- ^ "Electoral Act section 24". Northern Territory Consolidated Acts. Retrieved 21 July 2015.
- ^ "Electoral Act section 25". Northern Territory Consolidated Acts.
- ^ "Mills dumped as Giles takes top Territory job". ABC News. Australia. 13 March 2013. Retrieved 13 March 2013.
- ^ Everingham, Sara (14 March 2013). "Indigenous politician Adam Giles to replace Terry Mills as NT Chief Minister". AM (ABC Radio). Australia. Retrieved 14 March 2013.
- ^ "Giles denies plot to overthrow Mills". ABC News. Australia. 14 March 2013. Retrieved 14 March 2013.
- ^ "Adam Giles remains NT chief minister". SBS News. Retrieved 3 February 2015.
- ^ "Kezia Purick quits Northern Territory Country Liberals party, Government loses one-seat majority". Abc.net.au. 2015-07-20. Retrieved 2016-08-11.
- ^ "Adam Giles would 'love to go to an early election' after Kezia Purick resigns Country Liberals party". Abc.net.au. Retrieved 2016-08-11.
- ^ "Redistribution 2015". Northern Territory Electoral Commission. Retrieved 21 July 2015.
- ^ Green, Antony (16 June 2015). "Draft Electoral Boundaries Released for the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly". Antony Green's Election Blog. ABC. Retrieved 21 July 2015.
- ^ "Redistribution Report" (PDF). Northern Territory Electoral Commission. p. 47. Retrieved 31 July 2015.
- ^ "Final Report" (PDF). Northern Territory Electoral Commission. Retrieved 19 September 2015.
- ^ "Redistribution Report" (PDF). Northern Territory Electoral Commission. NTEC. p. 6. Retrieved 31 July 2015.
- ^ "Election timetable". NTEC. Retrieved 25 July 2016.
- ^ "The Australian – Northern Territory poll – 1 March 2015". Reachtel.com.au. 2015-03-02. Retrieved 2016-08-11.
- ^ 105.7 ABC Darwin (2015-03-03). "Adam Giles-led Country Liberals Government facing crushing NT electoral defeat, new poll figures". Abc.net.au. Retrieved 2016-08-11.
- ^ "ReachTEL 18-point swing to Labor in Northern Territory: Poll Bludger". Blogs.crikey.com.au. 2015-03-03. Retrieved 2016-08-11.
- ^ "Labor on track for landslide win in Territory election". NT News. Australia. 1 August 2016. Retrieved 1 August 2016.
- ^ "Alice Springs MLA Matt Conlan has announced he will not contest the next election".
- ^ "CLP Minister John Elferink declares in parliament that he won't run at next election".
- ^ "Dave Tollner fails to win preselection for NT seat of Spillett, will not contest election".
- ^ Hind, Rick (3 August 2016). "Alison Anderson announces retirement from Northern Territory politics". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 3 August 2016.
- ^ "Sex scandal: NT politician Nathan Barrett will not recontest August election".
- ^ Antony Green (2015-09-17). "Northern Territory Electoral Boundaries Finalised". Blogs.abc.net.au. Retrieved 2016-08-11.