Opinion polling for the 2016 Croatian parliamentary election
Opinion polling for the 2016 Croatian parliamentary election started immediately after the 2015 general election. Monthly party ratings are conducted by Ipsos Puls and Promocija Plus.
Exit polls[edit]
| Date | Polling Organisation/Client | People's Coalition | HDZ Coalition | Most | Živi zid | IDS | BM 365 NS-R |
HDSSB HKS |
Pametno Za grad |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 September 2016 | Ipsos puls | 57 | 57 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Coalition standings[edit]
Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date of publication, as opposed to the date the survey's fieldwork was done, which can be seen in the second table. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's color. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty. The client can be seen in the second table.
| Date | Polling Firm | People's Coalition | HDZ | Most | Živi zid | MB 365 NS-R |
ORaH, HL, NH-PS | IDS | Others | Undecided | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sep | General Election Results | 33.2 | 36.3 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 4.0 | - | 2.3 | 11.0 | - | 3.1 |
| 7 Sep | CRO Demoskop | 34.5 | 27.2 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 5.6 | 11.5 | 7.3 |
| 4 Aug | CRO Demoskop | 34.4 | 26.4 | 10.4 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 5.7 | 11.5 | 8.0 |
| 25 July: HDZ announced it would participate in the elections without national coalition | |||||||||||
| Date | Polling Firm | People's Coalition | Patriotic Coalition | Most | Živi zid | MB 365 | ORaH | IDS | Others | Undecided | Lead |
| 25 Jul | Ipsos Puls | 34.2 | 29.6 | 11.4 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 4.6 |
| 5 Jul | CRO Demoskop | 36.1 | 25.3 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 7.1 | 12.5 | 10.8 |
| 28 Jun | Ipsos Puls | 32.2 | 23.1 | 12.1 | 7.7 | 2.3 | - | 1.4 | 10.1 | 11.1 | 9.1 |
| 22 May - 9 Jun | Promocija plus [1] | 33.6 | 26.9 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 7.0 | 12.1 | 6.7 |
| 4 Jun | CRO Demoskop | 34.7 | 28.5 | 6.4 | 7.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 6.3 | 12.8 | 6.2 |
| 25 May | Ipsos Puls | 31.6 | 31.2 | 7.9 | 7.8 | 4.3 | - | 1.4 | 6.7 | 7.6 | 0.4 |
| 6 May | CRO Demoskop | 33.6 | 34.7 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 3.7 | 11.5 | 1.1 |
| 23 Apr | Ipsos Puls | 32.1 | 33.3 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 1.2 |
| 5 Apr | CRO Demoskop | 31.4 | 31.9 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 4.9 | 15.7 | 0.5 |
| 26 Mar | Ipsos Puls | 31.5 | 34.9 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 5.9 | 7.3 | 3.4 |
| 5 Mar | CRO Demoskop | 30.9 | 31.4 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 5.6 | 13.1 | 0.5 |
| 25 Feb | Ipsos Puls | 28.9 | 33.2 | 10.2 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 4.3 |
| 5 Feb | CRO Demoskop | 32.3 | 32.7 | 9.1 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 6.0 | 11.9 | 0.4 |
| 25 Jan | Ipsos Puls | 29.1 | 32.5 | 14.5 | 4.0 | 4.2 | - | 2.0 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 3.4 |
| 8 Jan | CRO Demoskop | 32.1 | 31.2 | 11.7 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 5.1 | 12.1 | 0.9 |
| 2016 | |||||||||||
| 23 Dec | Ipsos Puls | 29.2 | 33.8 | 15.5 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 4.6 |
| 4 Dec | CRO Demoskop | 30.3 | 29.4 | 15.4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 4.9 | 10.7 | 0.9 |
| 25 Nov | Ipsos Puls | 30.2 | 29.6 | 19.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 0.6 |
| 8 Nov | General Election | 33.3 | 33.3 | 13.5 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 8.9 | - | Tie |
Individual party standings[edit]
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organization/client | Sample size | SDP | HDZ | Most | Živi zid | MB 365 | HNS | HSS | ORaH | IDS | Others | Undecided | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-3 Aug | Promocija Plus/CRO Demoskop | 1.300 | 29.6 | 26.0 | 10.5 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 7.7 | 11.6 | 3.6 |
| 1-18 Jul | Ipsos Puls/Dnevnik Nova TV | 974 | 29.2 | 28.3 | 11.4 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 8.4 | 6 | 0.9 |
| 1-3 Jul | Promocija Plus/CRO Demoskop | 1300 | 31.8 | 22.7 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 8.1 | 12.5 | 9.1 |
| 25-28 Jun | Ipsos Puls/Dnevnik Nova TV | 1219 | 30.9 | 21.5 | 12.1 | 7.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | - | 1.4 | 10.2 | 11.1 | 9.4 |
| 1-3 Jun | Promocija Plus/CRO Demoskop | 1300 | 30.5 | 26.3 | 6.4 | 7.4 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 6.3 | 12.8 | 4.2 |
| 1–21 May | Ipsos Puls/Dnevnik Nova TV | 976 | 29.1 | 28.7 | 7.9 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 | - | 1.4 | 10.4 | 7.5 | 0.4 |
| 2–5 May | Promocija Plus/CRO Demoskop | 1300 | 29.2 | 29.5 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 7.4 | 11.5 | 0.3 |
| 1-21 Apr | Ipsos Puls/Dnevnik Nova TV | 964 | 28.6 | 29.0 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 11.1 | 7.2 | 1.2 |
| 1-4 Apr | Promocija Plus/CRO Demoskop | 1300 | 29.0 | 29.8 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 7.5 | 12.8 | 0.8 |
| 1-21 Mar | Ipsos Puls/Dnevnik Nova TV | 969 | 28.0 | 30.2 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 10.6 | 7.3 | 2.2 |
| 1-3 Mar | Promocija Plus/CRO Demoskop | 1300 | 28.2 | 29.3 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 8.3 | 13.8 | 1.1 |
| 1-21 Feb | Ipsos Puls/Dnevnik Nova TV | 973 | 26.2 | 28.9 | 10.2 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 10.6 | 8.6 | 2.7 |
| 1-3 Feb | Promocija Plus/CRO Demoskop | 1300 | 28.8 | 30.0 | 10.0 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 6.8 | 13.5 | 1.2 |
| 1-21 Jan | Ipsos Puls/Dnevnik Nova TV | 975 | 26.6 | 28.5 | 14.5 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 1.9 | - | 2.0 | 16.8 | 6.7 | 1.9 |
| 4-6 Jan | Promocija Plus/CRO Demoskop | 1300 | 29.6 | 29.3 | 12.6 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 6.6 | 10.1 | 0.3 |
| 2016 | ||||||||||||||
| 1-21 Dec | Ipsos Puls/Dnevnik Nova TV | 976 | 27.2 | 29.5 | 15.5 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.3 |
| 30 Nov-2 Dec | Promocija Plus/CRO Demoskop | 1300 | 28.2 | 27.6 | 15.6 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 5.6 | 9.2 | 0.6 |
| 8-20 Nov | Ipsos Puls/Dnevnik Nova TV | 966 | 29.0 | 28.2 | 19.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 0.8 |
Seats projections[edit]
| Date | Polling Firm | SDP HNS HSU HSS |
HDZ HSLS HDS Hrast |
Most | Živi zid et al. |
BM 365 NS-R et al. |
IDS PGS RI |
HDSSB HKS |
Pametno Za grad |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sep | General Election | 54 | 61 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 8 Sep | 2x1 komunikacije | 59 | 55 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| 7 Sep | Ipsos Puls | 55 | 53 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 4 Sep | Promocija Plus | 62 | 55 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| 2 Sep | Hendal | 61 | 56 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 9 Jun | Promocija Plus | 62 | 48 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 8 Nov 2015 | General Election | 56 | 59 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | - |
Polls of electoral districts[edit]
Coalition standings[edit]
The poll in the table below was conducted by Hendal for HRT from 16 to 26 August 2016:
| District | SDP HNS HSU HSS |
HDZ HSLS HDS Hrast |
Most | Živi zid et al. |
BM 365 NS-R et al. |
IDS PGS RI |
HDSSB HKS |
Pametno Za grad |
HL | NLSP ORaH et al. |
Undecided | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. district[2] | 34.7 | 22.8 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 3.0 | – | – | 3.0 | – | – | 16.5 | 11.9 |
| II. district[3] | 31.3 | 24.7 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 4.1 | – | – | – | – | – | 22.1 | 6.6 |
| III. district[4] | 44.1 | 16.0 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 3.2 | – | – | – | 0.8 | – | 21.7 | 28.1 |
| IV. district[2] | 24.2 | 33.0 | 7.1 | 3.9 | – | – | 5.4 | – | – | – | 20.4 | 8.8 |
| V. district[5] | 22.4 | 36.8 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 2.9 | – | 3.7 | – | – | – | 22.1 | 14.4 |
| VI. district[6] | 27.2 | 27.4 | 4.7 | 7.8 | 3.9 | – | – | – | – | – | 24.3 | 0.2 |
| VII. district[6] | 32.2 | 26.8 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 2.4 | – | – | 2.3 | – | – | 19.2 | 5.4 |
| VIII. district[7] | 32.0 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 6.4 | – | 14.8 | – | – | – | – | 22.6 | 22.4 |
| IX. district[7] | 19.4 | 41.0 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.0 | – | – | – | – | 0.6 | 21.3 | 21.6 |
| X. district[8] | 21.3 | 31.7 | 16.1 | 2.7 | 2.3 | – | – | – | – | – | 21.3 | 10.4 |
The poll in the table below was conducted by Promocija plus for RTL and Jutarnji List[9] in August and September 2016:[10]
(*) It is commonly assumed on the basis of results from previous elections and past experience that HDZ will win a majority (if not all) of the 3 seats allocated to the XI electoral district made up of Croatian citizens living abroad. Should this be the case HDZ would have a total of 58 seats, with 56 being considered safe seats and raising its possible seat range to 56-63.
(**) The 11 remaining seats are allocated in the XI (3) and XII (8) electoral districts. The XI electoral districts encompasses all Croatian citizens living abroad. The XII electoral district encompasses members of 22 recognized national minorities who elected representatives in a single district with the votes being subsequently allocated to candidates running for every minority's individual seat. The Serb minority elects 3 members, while 1 seat each is allocated to the Italian, Hungarian, Czech/Slovak, Albanian/Bosniak/Macedonian/Montenegrin/Slovene and Austrian/Bulgarian/German/Jewish/Polish/Roma/Romanian/Rusyn/Russian/Turkish /Ukrainian/Vlach minorities.
| District | SDP HNS HSU HSS |
HDZ HSLS HDS Hrast |
Most | Živi zid et al. |
IDS PGS RI |
BM 365 NS-R et al. |
NLSP ORaH et al. |
HSP AS HKDU et al. |
HDSSB HKS |
Pametno Za grad |
HSP HČSP et al. |
HL | ID | Others | Undecided | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. district | 38.7 | 23 | 9.7 | 5.7 | – | 3.7 | 0.5 | 1.8 | – | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | – | 1.8 | 10.9 | 15.7 |
| II. district | 33.6 | 28.7 | 7.2 | 4.8 | – | 6.8 | 0.9 | 1.1 | – | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.7 | – | 2.2 | 11.6 | 4.9 |
| III. district | 44.2 | 20.8 | 6.3 | 4.6 | – | 5.0 | 0.6 | 2.4 | – | 0.7 | 0.2 | 1.1 | – | 1.3 | 12.9 | 23.4 |
| IV. district | 29.1 | 31.7 | 6.5 | 4.1 | – | 1.6 | – | 1.6 | 10.5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.7 | – | 1.0 | 11.4 | 2.6 |
| V. district | 27.2 | 39.5 | 7.0 | 3.9 | – | 1.9 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | – | – | 1.1 | 12.8 | 12.3 |
| VI. district | 34.2 | 28.8 | 6.3 | 4.5 | – | 5.9 | 0.5 | 2.0 | – | 0.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | – | 1.8 | 12.8 | 5.4 |
| VII. district | 34.4 | 28.9 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 1.3 | 4.4 | – | 0.9 | – | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | – | 1.8 | 12.8 | 5.5 |
| VIII. district | 35.4 | 16.4 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 16.8 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | – | 1.4 | 1.0 | – | 1.2 | 1.4 | 13.2 | 19 |
| IX. district | 24.2 | 43.3 | 6.8 | 3.9 | – | 1.3 | 3.4 | 0.7 | – | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | – | 2.0 | 12.3 | 19.1 |
| X. district | 26.2 | 36.6 | 14.7 | 1.9 | – | 0.9 | 0.7 | 1.0 | – | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | – | 1.2 | 12.2 | 10.4 |
| Total seats | 62 | 55* | 12 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11** | 7 |
| Safe seats | 57 | 53* | 11 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 4 |
| Marginal seats (gain) | 3 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | |
| Marginal seats (loss) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | |
| Seat range | 57-65 | 53-60 | 11-13 | 2-9 | 3 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Individual party standings[edit]
The poll in the table below was conducted by Promocija plus for RTL in May and June 2016:
| District | Date(s) conducted | Polling Firm | SDP | HDZ | Most | Živi zid | MB 365 | HNS | HSS | HSLS | IDS | HDSSB | Others | Undecided | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. | Unspecified (published 9 Jun) | Promocija plus/RTL and Jutarnji List | 35.9 | 20.3 | 8.7 | 7.2 | - | 1.9 | - | 1.6 | - | - | 10.5 | 14.1 | 15.6 |
| II. | Unspecified (published 8 Jun) | Promocija plus/RTL and Jutarnji List | 28.8 | 21.1 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 4.8 | 1.0 | - | - | 6.4 | 16.1 | 7.7 |
| III. | Unspecified (published 24 May) | Promocija plus/RTL and Jutarnji List | 32.5 | 17.2 | 5.1 | 8.0 | - | 9.9 | - | - | - | - | - | 12.0 | 15.3 |
| IV. | Unspecified (published 22 May) | Promocija plus/RTL and Jutarnji List | 27.7 | 30.4 | 5.6 | 9.3 | - | 3.9 | 1.6 | 1.0 | - | 9.7 | 2.9 | - | 2.7 |
| V. | Unspecified (published 26 May) | Promocija plus/RTL and Jutarnji List | 24.6 | 33.5 | 4.9 | 5.6 | - | - | - | - | - | 5.1 | - | 11.0 | 8.9 |
| VI. | Unspecified (published 7 Jun) | Promocija plus/RTL and Jutarnji List | 31.1 | 24.1 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | - | - | - | - | 9.9 | 11.5 | 7.0 |
| VII. | Unspecified (published 6 Jun) | Promocija plus/RTL and Jutarnji List | 31.5 | 24.5 | 6.1 | 12.3 | - | 1.6 | - | - | - | - | 15.2 | 8.9 | 7.0 |
| VIII. | Unspecified (published 29 May) | Promocija plus/RTL and Jutarnji List | 33.6 | 12.9 | 5.0 | 7.7 | - | - | - | - | 16.3 | - | 9.4 | 15.4 | 17.3 |
| IX. | Unspecified (published 31 May) | Promocija plus/RTL and Jutarnji List | 25.2 | 36.5 | 6.3 | 7.4 | - | - | - | - | - | - | 12.0 | 12.6 | 11.3 |
| X. | Unspecified (published 2 Jun) | Promocija plus/RTL and Jutarnji List | 22.5 | 28.3 | 15.8 | 7.9 | - | - | - | - | - | - | 14.7 | 10.8 | 5.8 |
References[edit]
- ^ Blažević, Robert (2016): Upravna znanost, p. 324. ISBN 9789537083243
- ^ a b "Rezultati preferencija birača uoči izbora u 4. i 1. izbornoj jedinici". HRT. 2 September 2016. Retrieved 3 September 2016.
- ^ "Rezultati preferencija birača uoči izbora u 2. izbornoj jedinici". HRT. 29 August 2016. Retrieved 30 August 2016.
- ^ "Rezultati preferencija birača uoči izbora u 3. izbornoj jedinici". HRT. 28 August 2016. Retrieved 30 August 2016.
- ^ "Rezultati preferencija birača uoči izbora u 5. izbornoj jedinici". HRT. 27 August 2016. Retrieved 28 August 2016.
- ^ a b "Rezultati preferencija birača uoči izbora u 6. i 7. izbornoj jedinici". HRT. 1 September 2016. Retrieved 2 September 2016.
- ^ a b "Rezultati preferencija birača uoči izbora u 8. i 9. izbornoj jedinici". HRT. 31 August 2016. Retrieved 31 August 2016.
- ^ "Rezultati preferencija birača uoči izbora u 10. izbornoj jedinici". HRT. 30 August 2016. Retrieved 30 August 2016.
- ^ "Stigli rezultati velike ankete na sjeverozapadu Hrvatske". Jutarnji List. 22 August 2016. Retrieved 3 September 2016.
- ^ "Statistički Centar – Vijesti.hr". RTL Televizija. Retrieved 26 August 2016.
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