Opinion polling for the Iranian presidential election, 2017

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to navigation Jump to search

This page lists public opinion polls in connection with the 2017 Iranian presidential election, which were held on 19 May 2017, with a run-off the week after if no candidate secures an absolute majority of the vote in the first round.

Polls[edit]

2017[edit]

Fieldwork date Poll source Sample
size
Margin of error Hassan Rouhani Ebrahim Raisi Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf Mostafa Mir-Salim Eshaq Jahangiri Mostafa Hashemitaba Undecided Won't say Others
Rouhani Raisi Ghalibaf Mir-Salim Jahangiri Hashemitaba
17 May 2017 iPPO[1] 1,203 [±2.83,±4.06] 35.9% 18% 2.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0% 16.4% 20% 7%
16 May: Jahangiri drops out in favor of Rouhani
16 May 2017 IranPoll[2] 1,007 ±3.09% 60.4% 39.6% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
58% 36.4% N/A <2% <2% <2% N/A N/A N/A
15–16 May 2017 iPPO[3] 1,194 [±2.83,±3.89] 30% 13% 5% 1% <1% 1% 24% 22% 10%
15 May: Ghalibaf drops out in favor of Raisi
13–15 May 2017 iPPO[4] 1,376 [±2.64,±3.92] 27% 10% 8% 1% 1% <1% 24% 22% 4%
11–14 May 2017 iPPO[5] 1,122 [±2.93,±4.30] 28% 12% 9% 1% 1% <1% 24% 22% 4%
10–13 May 2017 iPPO[6] 1,012 [±3.08,±4.73] 29.1% 10.7% 12% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 25.5% 13.1% 8.7%
9–12 May 2017 iPPO[7] 1,199 [±2.83,±3.75] 30% 11% 12% 1% <1% <1% 25% 11% 9%
8–11 May 2017 iPPO[8] 1,212 [±2.81,±3.74] 29% 11% 12% <1% 1% <1% 28% 10% 10%
7–10 May 2017 iPPO[9] 1,189 [±2.82,±3.75] 28% 10% 10% <1% <1% <1% 30% 8% 14%
6–9 May 2017 iPPO[10] 1,189 [±2.84,±3.82] 23% 9% 11% 1% <1% <1% 33% 10% 14%
5–8 May 2017 iPPO[11] 1,076 [±2.99,±3.91] 24.4% 6.9% 10.3% 0.7% 0.7% 0.1% 35.6% 9.7% 11.6%
4–7 May 2017 iPPO[12] 1,000 [±3.10,±3.90] 24.5% 4.6% 10.5% 0.8% 1.3% 0.4% 36.3% 9.3% 12.3%
4–7 May 2017 iPPO[13] 947 [±3.18,±3.90] 26% 5.5% 11.8% 0.8% 1.4% 0.2% 38.9% 10.3% 5.1%

Iran-based pollsters[edit]

According to the Al-Monitor, "it’s not unusual in Iran for news outlets to publish reports of nonscientific surveys. Without further details, such polls shouldn’t be considered reliable if they lack the disclosure of basic methodological information".[14] A persistent problem in Iranian pollsters, they also do not report the standard disclosure items for legitimate surveys including sample size or margin of error.[15]

Fieldwork date Poll source Hassan Rouhani Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf Ebrahim Raisi Eshaq Jahangiri Mostafa Mir-Salim Mostafa Hashemitaba No answer None of them
Rouhani Ghalibaf Raisi Jahangiri Mir-Salim Hashemitaba
15 May 2017 APCAF Porsesh[16] 55.47% N/A 28.46% 3.66% 2.18% 1.41% N/A N/A
13 May 2017 ISPA[17] 47.2% 19.5% 25.2% 3.1% 2.1% 1.4% N/A N/A
43.2% 21.7% 24.7% 3.6% 2.8% 1.7% N/A N/A
49.9% N/A 41.3% N/A N/A N/A 2.3% 4.8%
7–8 May 2017 ISPA[18] 41.6% 24.6% 26.7% 3.2% 2.8% 1.2% N/A N/A
47.7% N/A 38.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
44.8% 44.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
23–24 April 2017 ISPA[18] 43.5% 22.6% 17.4% 3.6% 2.1% 2.8% 8.1% N/A
52.9% N/A 32.4% N/A N/A N/A 3.5% 11.2%
49% 37.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A 3.7% 9.6%
Before 24 April 2017 IRIB[19] 1st 2nd 3rd N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
43.3% N/A 27% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
40.9% 34.6% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
N/A 36.5% 27% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Pre-2017 polls[edit]

Fieldwork date Poll source Sample
size
Margin of error Hassan Rouhani Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf Saeed Jalili Other
Rouhani Ahmadinejad Ghalibaf Jalili
10–24 December 2016 CISSM, IranPoll[20] 1,000 ±3.2 48.5% N/A 31.8% N/A 10.7% other names or none, 9% Don't know or N/A
47.2% N/A 25.1% 11.3% 6.7% other names or none, 9.7% Don't know or N/A
57.3% N/A N/A 21.8% 8.6% other names or none, 12.3% Don't know or N/A
Late October 2016 "An academic institute in Iran"[21] Undisclosed ±3.2 64% N/A N/A 19% N/A
53% N/A 32% N/A N/A
17–27 June 2016 CISSM, IranPoll[22] 1,007 ±3.2 53.6% N/A 30.1% N/A 6.6% other names or none, 9.7% Don't know or N/A
40.6% 31% 15.3% N/A 6% other names or none, 7.1% Don't know or N/A
45% 36.7% N/A N/A 9.5% other names or none, 8.7% Don't know or N/A
11–24 March 2016 iPOS[23] 1,077 ±3 41% 29% N/A N/A 15% other names or N/A, 15% Don't know
12–28 May 2015 UTCPOR, CISSM, IranPoll[24] 1,009 ±3.2 24.6% 8.8% 6.2% 0.4% 15.5% other names, 46% Don't know
53.4% 26.6% N/A N/A 11.3% other names, 8.7% Don't know
14–15 February 2015 iPOS[25][26] 735 ±3.6 28% 24% N/A N/A 23% other names or N/A, 25% Undecided
27% 21% 9% 4% 37% other names

Approval ratings[edit]

2017[edit]

Poll source Sample
size
Fieldwork date Margin of error Approval ratings
IranPoll[27] 1,005 14 April ±3.09%
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Rouhani
Ahmadinejad
Ghalibaf
Raisi
Baghaei
Jahangiri
  •   Very favorable
  •   Somewhat favorable
  •   Don’t know the individual
  •   Somewhat unfavorable
  •   Very unfavorable

Turnout[edit]

Poll source Sample
size
Fieldwork date Margin of error Very likely Somewhat likely Not very likely Not likely at all Don't know
iPPO[13] 947 4–7 May 2017 [±3.18,±3.90] 71.6% 16.1% 4.9%
IRIB[28] 38,000 30 April–2 May 2017 N/A 63.5% 7.1% 1.2% 23.6% 4.6%
ISPA[29] 4,500 23–24 April 2017 N/A 48% 22% 7% 10% 12%
ISPA[30] 900
Tehran only
5–6 March 2017 N/A 41.9% 18.8% 11% 16% 12%
CISSM, IranPoll[20] 1,000 10–24 December 2016 ±3.2 66.6% 15.8% 8.9% 7.4% 1.3%
CISSM, IranPoll[22] 1,007 17–27 June 2016 ±3.2 65.8% 15.3% 10.6% 7.1% 1.1%

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Poll Results of 17 May", International Perpectives for Public Opinion (iPPO), 18 May 2017, retrieved 18 May 2017 
  2. ^ "Iranian Presidential Election 2017: Post-election Analysis of Polling Accuracy (May 2017)" (PDF), IranPoll, May 2017, retrieved 25 May 2017 
  3. ^ "Poll Results of 16 May", International Perpectives for Public Opinion (iPPO), 17 May 2017, retrieved 17 May 2017 
  4. ^ "Poll Results of 15 May", International Perpectives for Public Opinion (iPPO), 16 May 2017, retrieved 17 May 2017 
  5. ^ "Poll Results of 14 May" (PDF), International Perpectives for Public Opinion (iPPO) (in Persian), 15 May 2017, retrieved 15 May 2017 
  6. ^ "Poll Results of 13 May" (PDF), International Perpectives for Public Opinion (iPPO) (in Persian), 14 May 2017, retrieved 14 May 2017 
  7. ^ "Poll Results of 12 May" (PDF), International Perpectives for Public Opinion (iPPO) (in Persian), 13 May 2017, retrieved 13 May 2017 
  8. ^ "Poll Results of 11 May" (PDF), International Perpectives for Public Opinion (iPPO) (in Persian), 12 May 2017, retrieved 12 May 2017 
  9. ^ "Poll Results of 10 May" (PDF), International Perpectives for Public Opinion (iPPO) (in Persian), 11 May 2017, retrieved 11 May 2017 
  10. ^ "Poll Results of 9 May" (PDF), International Perpectives for Public Opinion (iPPO) (in Persian), 10 May 2017, retrieved 10 May 2017 
  11. ^ "Poll Results of 8 May" (PDF), International Perpectives for Public Opinion (iPPO) (in Persian), 9 May 2017, retrieved 10 May 2017 
  12. ^ "Poll Results of 6 May" (PDF), International Perpectives for Public Opinion (iPPO) (in Persian), 8 May 2017, retrieved 8 May 2017 
  13. ^ a b "Poll Results of 7 May", International Perpectives for Public Opinion (iPPO), 8 May 2017, retrieved 8 May 2017 
  14. ^ Matt Dabrowski (25 April 2017). "Iran polling: Will vote see Rouhani-Ghalibaf rematch?". Al-Monitor. Retrieved 25 April 2017. 
  15. ^ Matt Dabrowski (12 May 2017). "Polls put Rouhani in lead with one week to go". Al-Monitor. Retrieved 12 May 2017. 
  16. ^ "Rouhani is still leading with wide margin". Shargh (in Persian) (2866). 17 May 2017. Archived from the original on 25 May 2017. 
  17. ^ "Latest ISPA Poll: Rouhani Still Leading". The Iranian Students Polling Agency (ISPA) (in Persian). 16 May 2017. Retrieved 17 May 2017 – via Shafaqna. 
  18. ^ a b "The Race: Poll Results", The Iranian Students Polling Agency (ISPA), The Iranian Labour News Agency (ILNA), 18 May 2017, retrieved 22 May 2017 – via The Iran Primer 
  19. ^ "Opinion Poll Results: Rouhani 1st, Raisi 3rd". Deutsche Welle (in Persian). 24 April 2017. Retrieved 24 April 2017.  (Alef report in Persian)
  20. ^ a b "Iranian Public Opinion on Key National and International Issues" (PDF). Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM) & IranPoll.com. January 2017. Retrieved 4 April 2017. 
  21. ^ "Recent Poll: Decrease in Rouhani's Popularity, Zarif Ahead". Alef. 29 November 2016. Retrieved 4 April 2017 – via Arabian Gulf Center for Iranian studies.  (Original Source in Persian)
  22. ^ a b "Iranian Public Opinion, One Year After the Nuclear Deal" (PDF). Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM) & IranPoll.com. July 2016. Retrieved 4 April 2017. 
  23. ^ "2017 Presidential Elections: Rouhani 41%, Ahmadinejad 29%". Information and Public Opinion Solutions LLC (iPOS). 25 May 2016. Retrieved 25 May 2016. 
  24. ^ "Iranian Public Opinion on the Nuclear Negotiations" (PDF). University of Tehran Center for Public Opinion Research (UTCPOR), the Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM), and IranPoll.com. June 2015. Retrieved 24 March 2017. 
  25. ^ "Ahmadinejad Upsets Rohani's Path to Re-election in 2017". Information and Public Opinion Solutions LLC (iPOS). 4 March 2015. Retrieved 26 December 2015. 
  26. ^ "2017: Ahmadinejad or Rohani". Information and Public Opinion Solutions LLC (iPOS). 4 March 2015. Retrieved 26 December 2015. 
  27. ^ "Iranian Presidential Election 2017 Pre-election National Opinion Polls (April 2017)" (PDF). IranPoll.com. April 2017. Retrieved 18 April 2017. 
  28. ^ "Over 70% of electorate expected to vote in Iran's presidential election: Poll". Press TV. 4 May 2017. Retrieved 4 May 2017. 
  29. ^ "58% of Iranian People Willing to Vote in the Twelfth Presidential Election" (in Persian). Iranian Students' Polling Agency (ISPA). 1 May 2017. Retrieved 27 April 2017. 
  30. ^ "Mistrust to Electronic Voting: ISPA Survey Results Shows" (in Persian). Iranian Students' Polling Agency (ISPA). 25 March 2017. Retrieved 13 March 2017.