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National Resistance Front of Afghanistan

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Panjshir resistance
LeadersAhmad Massoud
Amrullah Saleh
Bismillah Khan Mohammadi
Dates of operation16 August 2021 – present
Active regionsPanjshir Province, Parwan Province and Baghlan Province, Afghanistan
StatusActive
Size8,000+
Opponents Taliban/Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan
Battles and warsWar in Afghanistan
Map showing control of territory in Afghanistan, with land controlled by the resistance in pink on August 17.
(See a more detailed map of the current military situation in Afghanistan.)

The Panjshir resistance, also known as the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan,[1][4][5] and the Second Resistance,[6] is a military alliance of former Northern Alliance members and anti-Taliban fighters, who refers themselves to the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, created after the 2021 Taliban offensive, under the leadership of the Afghan politician and military leader Ahmad Massoud and the first vice president of Afghanistan Amrullah Saleh, born in Panjshir.[7]

The group exercises de facto control over the Panjshir Valley, which is largely contiguous with Panjshir Province and, as of August 2021, is "the only region out of the Taliban's hands".[8][9] The alliance constitutes the only organized resistance to the Taliban in the country, and is possibly planning an anti-Taliban guerilla struggle.[7][10][11] The resistance has called for an "inclusive government" of Afghanistan;[12] one of their objectives is speculated to be a stake in the new Afghan government.[7]

On 17 August 2021, Saleh—citing provisions of the Constitution of Afghanistan—declared himself President of Afghanistan from the base of operations in the Panjshir Valley, and said that he would continue military operations against the Taliban from there.[13] His claim to the presidency was endorsed by Massoud and former Afghan Minister of Defence Bismillah Mohammadi along with the Afghan embassy in Tajikistan and its ambassador Mohammad Zahir Aghbar.[12][13][7]

Background

Inside the valley of Panjshir

A mountainous region, Panjshir was a formidable base of operations for the original Northern Alliance, and for anti-Soviet fighters.[7][14] It was the birthplace of Ahmad Shah Massoud,[15] and his son, Ahmad Massoud, is widely seen as his successor.[16]

In July 2021, the remnants of the Northern Alliance started remobilizing under an umbrella called Resistance II.[9][17] Ahmad Massoud wrote in an op-ed to the Washington Post on 18 August 2021, calling for the rest of the world to help them, as he admits that ammunition and supplies will run out unless Panjshir can be supplied.[18] As of 17 August, the Panjshir Valley was—according to one observer—"under siege on all sides" but had not come under direct attack.[19] Massoud has stated his desire to negotiate with the Taliban.[20]

According to anonymous ex-American and British soldiers, some of whom were formerly Afghan-based contractors, numerous Afghans living/working abroad have been working together to raise money in order to assist the Panjshir-based fighters.[21]

Ali Maisam Nazary, spokesman for the resistance, said that the Taliban are overstretched after they seized control of Kabul.[22]

History

Coalescence in Panjshir

Following the Fall of Kabul, anti-Taliban forces, including former Vice President Saleh, moved into the Panjshir Valley, the only area of Afghanistan not controlled by the Taliban, in order to create a new resistance front.[23]

On 17 August 2021, ethnic Tajik former soldiers of the Afghan Army began to arrive in the Panjshir valley, with tanks and personnel carriers in support of the resistance.[24][25] They regrouped in Andarab district, Baghlan after they escaped Kunduz, Badakhshan, Takhar, and Baghlan before moving to the safety of Panjshir.[25]

According to unconfirmed reports, Saleh's command managed to recapture Charikar, the provincial capital of Parwan Province, which had been held by the Taliban since 15 August, and that fighting had begun in Panjshir.[26][27] At around the same time, unconfirmed reports stated that remnants of the Afghan National Army (ANA) had began massing in the Panjshir Valley at the urging of Massoud, along with the Minister of Defense Bismillah Mohammadi and provincial commanders.[7][28][29] Local civilians also responded to his calls to be mobilized.[30]

The Panjshir resistance also claimed to have the support of Abdul Rashid Dostum and Atta Muhammad Nur on 18 August 2021, while it was reported that members of Dostum's group, which had retreated into Uzbekistan, said that 10,000 of their soldiers could join forces with the Panjshir resistance, creating a combined force of 15,000 or more.[26][31] On the same day, Afghan Embassy employees in Tajikistan have replaced photos of Ghani in the embassy building with those of Saleh.[32]

Baghlan province

On 20 August, a group of anti-Taliban forces was organised in Baghlan Province, headed by Abdul Hamid Dadgar.[33] The group took over the Andarab, Pul-e-Hesar and De Salah districts of Baghlan Province, killing or injuring 60 Taliban fighters as they did so. In the mid afternoon, unconfirmed reports from Panjshir stated that Pul-e-Hesar was taken back from the Taliban, and that fighting was still raging in De Salah and Banu, with Iranian media reporting soon after that first Andarab and then De Salah fell to the resistance.[34]

According to Sediqullah Shuja, a former member of the Afghan National Security Forces, the reasons for the removal of the Taliban from the Andarab valley towns was the Taliban's searching of private houses, which was perceived as a violation of the agreement by which the Taliban had been allowed to take military control of the towns.[30] Shuja stated that the Taliban entered houses "and harassed people. In our villages, people are very traditional and Muslim.[30] There is no reason for Taliban to come and teach us about Islam." Former Baghlan prison commander Abdul Rahman stated that "All people of the valley have risen up against the Taliban. We are not afraid of Taliban fighters."[30]

Analysis

According to The Economist, the resistance's cause "looks forlorn".[35] The Independent mentions concerns that the fighters in Panjshir are likely to be outmatched as Taliban fighters have captured or acquired western-made military weapons and equipment with artillery and aircraft during the offensive.[21]

An anonymous Afghan journalist said that the group needs to start making plans for a drawn-out resistance against the Taliban if they are to hold Panjshir.[36] Analyst Bill Roggio also argued that the Panjshir resistance's "prospects are bleak", although their base was well-defendable, and Saleh could rely on a wide network of potential supporters across the entire country.[37]

Afghan specialist Gilles Dorronsoro from Sorbonne University said that Taliban forces could enforce a lockdown on Panjshir, since it was not a major threat.[38] There was also a concern with Saleh and Massoud coming from different political backgrounds, with the latter not having the same level of charisma as his father, even though both oppose the Taliban.[38] Kim Sengupta said that support for the resistance would depend on how unpopular the Taliban were and how far people would be willing to stand up against them despite the Taliban's insistence that they would not allow their fighters to persecute people who had worked with the previous government or with NATO-led forces.[21]

David Loyn suggested that the resistance had a better chance of gaining more support from Afghans of other ethnic groups resisting the Taliban if Saleh were seen as the head of a broad coalition rather than only representing Tajiks.[39] Loyn said that the rest of the world might have a reason not to recognize the Taliban if the fighters continued to face the Taliban and recaptured territory.[39]

Foreign Policy stated that there are generations of Afghans who had not previously experienced life under Taliban rule and were likely to resist.[40] Foreign Policy stated that if the Taliban continued to target persons with links to the former government, then support for resistance would grow, but that support would drop if a future government included Hamid Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah.[40] An anonymous intelligence officer said that if tribal elders and warlords believed that the resistance could topple the Taliban, then they would be likely join the resistance and oppose the Taliban.[41]

Reactions

Russian Ambassador to Afghanistan Dmitry Zhirnov labeled the resistance as "doomed" and that the resistance would fail. Zhirnov further stated that Saleh's proclamation of caretaker president is unconstitutional and added that they have "no military prospects".[42] Zhirnov also stated his plans to mediate talks between the Resistance and the Taliban.[43]

Former Indian Chief of the Army Staff Shankar Roychowdhury said that the Government of India must reach out to Panjshir-based resistance forces alongside Taliban factions that may be friendly to India.[44]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ The flag of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan mostly sees official use while the flag of the Northern Alliance sees mostly widespread use among the region.[3]

References

  1. ^ a b "The mujahideen resistance to the Taliban begins now. But we need help". Washington Post. 18 August 2021. Retrieved 2021-08-18.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  2. ^ Roggio, Bill (18 August 2021). "After fall of Kabul, resistance to Taliban emerges in Panjshir". Long War Journal. Retrieved 20 August 2021.
  3. ^ @LouiseMensch (August 22, 2021). "A #NorthernAlliance supporting account details some Resistance victories today; the flag of Afghanistan and that of the Northern Alliance are seen being flown together, giving one voice to protestors in the cities and fighters in the North" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  4. ^ "Afghan leader of Taliban resistance urges West to "supply us without delay"". Newsweek. 2021-08-19. Retrieved 2021-08-20.
  5. ^ "National Resistance Front Of Afghanistan | The Irish Times". www.irishtimes.com. Retrieved 2021-08-20.
  6. ^ "Analysis | Northern Afghanistan once kept out the Taliban. Why has it fallen so quickly this time?". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved 2021-08-18."Taliban promises not to move to Panshir; Ahmad Massoud says he is ready to give his blood for his land | Tajikistan News ASIA-Plus". asiaplustj.info. Retrieved 2021-08-19."Preparing for a Post-Departure Afghanistan: Changing political dynamics in the wake of the US troop withdrawal announcement". Afghanistan Analysts Network. 2021-06-04. Retrieved 2021-08-19."He promised an "organized resistance" to Taliban rule. Now he wants U.S. help to lead the fight". www.cbsnews.com. Retrieved 2021-08-19."Northern Afghanistan once kept out the Taliban. Why has it fallen so quickly this time?". Washington Post.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  7. ^ a b c d e f "'Panjshir stands strong': Afghanistan's last holdout against the Taliban". The Guardian. 2021-08-18. Retrieved 2021-08-19.
  8. ^ "An anti-Taliban front forming in Panjshir? Ex top spy Saleh, son of 'Lion of Panjshir' meet at citadel". The Week. August 17, 2021. Archived from the original on August 17, 2021. Retrieved August 17, 2021.
  9. ^ a b Brick Murtazashvili, Jennifer (28 July 2021). "Northern Afghanistan once kept out the Taliban. Why has it fallen so quickly this time?". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on 16 August 2021. Retrieved 2021-08-17.
  10. ^ "An anti-Taliban front forming in Panjshir? Ex top spy Saleh, son of 'Lion of Panjshir' meet at citadel". The Week. Retrieved 2021-08-17.
  11. ^ "The Panjshir Valley: what is the main bastion of resistance against the Taliban advance in Afghanistan". Market Research Telecast. 17 August 2021.
  12. ^ a b Kramer, Andrew E. (2021-08-18). "Leaders in Afghanistan's Panjshir Valley defy the Taliban and demand an inclusive government". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2021-08-18.
  13. ^ a b "Panjshir flies flag of resistance again; Amrullah says he is President of Afghanistan". Tribune India. August 17, 2021. Retrieved August 17, 2021.
  14. ^ "The Panjshir Valley: what is the main bastion of resistance against the Taliban advance in Afghanistan". Market Research Telecast. 17 August 2021.
  15. ^ Ph. D., History; J. D., University of Washington School of Law; B. A., History. "The Brave Life and Tragic Death of Afghanistan's Lion of the Panjshir". ThoughtCo. Retrieved 2021-08-19.
  16. ^ "Ahmad Massoud Declared As His Father's Successor". TOLOnews.
  17. ^ Chaudhury, Dipanjan Roy. "Northern Alliance plans to regroup: Resistance leaders seek arms to fight Taliban in Northern Afghanistan". The Economic Times. Retrieved 2021-08-17.
  18. ^ "Protests against Afghan Taliban spread in early signs of resistance". Rappler. Retrieved 2021-08-19.
  19. ^ Mottram, Linda (August 17, 2021). "Resistance and refugees: the Afghan province holding out against the Taliban". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Archived from the original on August 17, 2021. Retrieved August 17, 2021.
  20. ^ Mackenzie, James (2021-08-22). "Anti-Taliban leader Massoud wants to talk but ready to fight". Reuters. Retrieved 2021-08-22.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  21. ^ a b c "The fightback begins: Resistance to Taliban starts but chance of success is low". The Independent. 2021-08-20. Retrieved 2021-08-21.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  22. ^ "Afghan resistance ready for conflict but prefers negotiations". France24. 22 August 2021. Retrieved 22 August 2021.
  23. ^ AFP (2021-08-17). "Defiant Afghan ex-VP vows new fight with Taliban". Digital Journal. Retrieved 2021-08-17."As Taliban takes over, one Afghan province is still standing strong – Here's the story of Ahmad Shah Massoud and his bastion Panjshir". Free Press Journal. Retrieved 2021-08-17."An anti-Taliban front forming in Panjshir? Ex top spy Saleh, son of 'Lion of Panjshir' meet at citadel". The Week. Retrieved 2021-08-17.
  24. ^ "Panjshir flies flag of resistance". Tribune India.
  25. ^ a b "After fall of Kabul, resistance to Taliban emerges in Panjshir | FDD's Long War Journal". www.longwarjournal.org. 2021-08-18. Retrieved 2021-08-19.
  26. ^ a b Dikshit, Sandeep (2021-08-18). "Afghan crisis: Panjshiris remain defiant, claim Uzbek leader Dostum's support". The Tribune. Archived from the original on 2021-08-19. Retrieved 2021-08-19.
  27. ^ "Источник: силы вице-президента Афганистана ведут бои с талибами в Панджшере [Source: Forces of Afghanistan's Vice President Continue to Fight the Taliban in Panjshir]". RIA Novosti (in Russian).
  28. ^ "'Northern Alliance' flag hoisted in Panjshir in first resistance against Taliban". Hindustan Times. 17 August 2021. Archived from the original on 17 August 2021. Retrieved 17 August 2021.
  29. ^ "An anti-Taliban front forming in Panjshir? Ex top spy Saleh, son of 'Lion of Panjshir' meet at citadel". The Week. 17 August 2021. Archived from the original on 17 August 2021. Retrieved 17 August 2021.
  30. ^ a b c d Mehrdad, Ezzatullah; Raghavan, Sudarsan (2021-08-20). "Anti-Taliban fighters claim victories as first stirrings of armed resistance emerge". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on 2021-08-21. Retrieved 2021-08-21.
  31. ^ "Operations". Northern Alliance: Fighting for a Free Afghanistan. Friends of the Northern Alliance. Retrieved 19 August 2021.
  32. ^ Ray, Siladitya. "Afghan Embassy In Tajikistan Demands Interpol Arrest Escaped Former President Ashraf Ghani". Forbes. Retrieved 2021-08-20.
  33. ^ "Anti-Taliban militia take hold of Baghlan province". The Independent. August 20, 2021.
  34. ^ "Anti-Taliban Resistance Recaptures Multiple Areas as Afghans Fight Back". Newsweek. August 20, 2021.
  35. ^ "From Saigon to Kabul: what America's Afghan fiasco means for the world". The Economist. 21 Aug 2021.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  36. ^ "Glavin: Afghan resistance gears up for the long, predictable battle ahead". ottawacitizen. Retrieved 2021-08-20.
  37. ^ Roggio, Bill (18 August 2021). "After fall of Kabul, resistance to Taliban emerges in Panjshir". Long War Journal. Retrieved 20 August 2021.
  38. ^ a b "Afghan holdout will struggle against Taliban assault, say analysts". France 24. 2021-08-20. Retrieved 2021-08-21.
  39. ^ a b Loyn, David. "Panjshir valley and the last resistance to the Taliban | The Spectator". www.spectator.co.uk. Retrieved 2021-08-23.
  40. ^ a b Detsch, Robbie Gramer, Jack. "An Anti-Taliban Front Is Already Forming. Can It Last?". Foreign Policy. Retrieved 2021-08-23.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  41. ^ https://www.voanews.com/us-afghanistan-troop-withdrawal/taliban-targets-panjshir-valley-resistance-leaders-remain-defiant
  42. ^ Vasilyeva, Maria (20 August 2021). "Resistance to Taliban is doomed, says Russian envoy to Afghanistan". Reuters. Retrieved 20 August 2021.
  43. ^ "Russia set to help Taliban reach political deal with 'resistance' leaders at Panjshir". The Week. 22 August 2021. Retrieved 23 August 2021.
  44. ^ "Eye On Taliban, Former Army Chief Says Need To Step Up Kashmir Outreach". NDTV.com. Retrieved 2021-08-21.