SciCast is a collaborative platform for science and technology forecasting created by George Mason University with the help of a grant from the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) as part of its ForeST (Forecasting in Science and Technology) program. SciCast is currently (January 2016) on hiatus, after losing its main IARPA funding. It was expected to re-open in the fall of 2015 with the support of a major Science & Technology sponsor, but this had not occurred by January 2016.
SciCast was an outgrowth of an earlier project called DAGGRE (Decomposition-Based Elicitation and Aggregation), also an IARPA project that implemented GMU economist Robin Hanson's idea of combinatorial prediction tech markets, and was a participant in the IARPA Aggregative Contingent Estimation tournament.
The launch of SciCast itself was announced by Robin Hanson on January 3, 2014, and the official announcements were made on January 10, 2014. The launch received some news coverage in March 2014.
The launch of SciCast was picked up by many blogs and websites of data analysis and technology trends. SciCast's crowdsourced search for the missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 airliner attracted the attention of some analysts.
- Aggregative Contingent Estimation
- Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity
- The Good Judgment Project
- Jury, Jessie (December 16, 2013). "SciCast Launch! Crowdsourced Forecasting Project from George Mason University". Chicago Tribune. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
- "SciCast Crowdsources Forecasts on Science and Technology Events and Innovations". George Mason University Newsdesk. January 10, 2014. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
- Matheny, Jason. "Forecasting Science & Technology (ForeST)". Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
- "So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish!". The Official SciCast Blog. June 8, 2015. Retrieved July 12, 2015.
- Hanson, Robin (January 3, 2014). "Announcing: SciCast". Overcoming Bias. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
- Hanson, Robin (August 31, 2011). "Join The DAGGRE Team". Overcoming Bias. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
- Roderick, Jennifer (March 30, 2014). "SciCast - Predict Tomorrow, Today. The Center for Science, Technology, and Security Policy (CSTSP) is working with a research group at George Mason University on a project – SciCast - to develop an online crowd-sourcing tool that can help predict future innovations in science and technology". American Association for the Advancement of Science. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
- Jury, Jessie (April 29, 2014). "SciCast College Bowl Kicks off Today, April 29". Chicago Tribune. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
- Piatetsky, Gregory (January 16, 2014). "SciCast: a Crowdsourced Forecasting Platform for Science and Technology". KD Nuggets. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
- Ed (January 22, 2014). "SciCast: Toward a better model for prediction". Security Curve. Archived from the original on January 29, 2014. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
- Lozada, John (February 6, 2014). "Robin Hanson – SciCast, Prediction Markets & Future Day". Retrieved May 6, 2014.
- Piatetsky, Gregory (March 15, 2014). "SciCast Crowdsourcing search for Malaysian Air Flight MH370". Retrieved May 6, 2014.