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2018–2019 Swedish government formation

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2018–2019 Swedish government formation
Date27 September 2018
– 18 January 2019
LocationStockholm, Sweden
TypeParliamentary government formation
Cause2018 Swedish general election
ParticipantsSwedish Social Democratic Party
Moderate Party
Sweden Democrats
Centre Party
Left Party
Christian Democrats
Liberals
Green Party
Outcome
  • Approval of M+KD 2019 budget
  • Löfven re-elected as Prime Minister and head of an S+MP government tolerated by C, L, and V

In the 2018 Swedish general election, no political group or party won an outright majority, resulting in a hung parliament.[1][2][3] On 9 September, the Red-Greens, led by Stefan Löfven's Social Democrats (S), emerged as the main political force in the Riksdag, while the centre-right Alliance led by Ulf Kristersson's Moderate Party only got one seat less. The right-wing populist party Sweden Democrats, led by Jimmie Åkesson, came third. As a result, protracted negotiations were required before a new government formation. On 18 January 2019, Löfven was re-elected as prime minister.

Parties and number of seats

[edit]

The table below lists parties' 2018 representation in the Riksdag.

Name Leader Seats
S Swedish Social Democratic Party
Socialdemokraterna 		Stefan Löfven 100
M Moderate Party
Moderaterna 		Ulf Kristersson 70
SD Sweden Democrats
Sverigedemokraterna 		Jimmie Åkesson 62
C Centre Party
Centerpartiet 		Annie Lööf 31
V Left Party
Vänsterpartiet 		Jonas Sjöstedt 28
KD Christian Democrats
Kristdemokraterna 		Ebba Busch Thor 22
L Liberals
Liberalerna 		Jan Björklund 20
MP Green Party
Miljöpartiet 		Isabella Lövin
Gustav Fridolin 		16

Groups

[edit]
Group Parties Seats
Red-Greens (centre-left to left-wing) S+V+MP 144
The Alliance (centre-right) M+C+L+KD 143
The conservative part of the Alliance (centre-right to right-wing) M+KD 92
Strictly anti-SD and formerly anti-V liberal part of the Alliance (centre to centre-right) C+L 51
Sweden Democrats (right-wing populist) SD 62
Löfven minority government (centre-left) S+MP 116
January agreement S+MP+C+L 167
Against the January agreement (with Left abstaining) M+KD+SD 154

Under the principle of negative parliamentarism, a government needs at least 175 members of parliament to not vote against it (such members should either vote 'yes' or abstain).[4]

Groups during actual voting:
Group Parties Seats
No confidence in a prime minister from S M+KD+SD+C+L 205
In the end not against a prime minister from S S+MP+C+L+V 195
In the 2021 crisis not against a prime minister from S S+MP+C+V 175

Potential governments

[edit]

The Swedish constitution creates a system known as "negative parliamentarianism", wherein "a prime ministerial candidate does not need to have the support of a majority, they only need to show that they do not have a majority of parliament against them."[5] In other words, the vote of confidence in Sweden is in practice a vote of no confidence, wherein the burden of proof is on the opposition. Political parties can symbolically "abstain" from the vote, which in practice acts as a yes vote and shows that the party tolerates, or tacitly approves, a government formation without the associated baggage that comes with outright support. Thus, the status quo is to seek a government agreement that is tolerable by a majority of the parties, rather than a polarizing agreement that is liked by one side and hated by the other.

With no political group or party having an outright majority, as well as a tangled web of conflicting interests among the parties, speculations were made around a number of possible compromises:

  • A centre-left minority government of the Social Democrats and Green Party (116 seats) with support by the Left party (total 144 seats, still a minority). This was the government model 2014–2018.
    • After the election, this government was voted out of confidence, and neither the Alliance nor the Sweden Democrats were willing to allow this government to return.
    • In the end, this became the government. This was after that the Centre party and the Liberals decided to allow it despite their previous Alliance leaning.
  • A centre-right minority government of the Alliance parties (143 seats) with support by the Sweden Democrats (total 205 seats, a majority)[6]
    • Centre and Liberal party leaders have ruled out participating in any government that depends on the Sweden Democrats.
  • A centre-right minority government with only the Moderates and the KD (92 seats), with support from C, L and Sweden Democrats (total 205 seats).[6]
    • The Sweden Democrats have stated that they will only back a government which they have political sway in.[7] In response to this, the Center and Liberal parties stated that they would break the Alliance if the Moderates attempted a government needing support from the Sweden Democrats, making this setup politically unfeasible.
    • The second option (M+KD) was attempted in a Riksdag vote on 14 November, but failed as C and L voted against it.
  • A centre-right Alliance minority government with support from the Social Democrats.[8]
    • This is the preferred government for the Centre Party.[7] The Social Democrats however proved unwilling to work towards this setup, believing that they should lead a government they are part of, as they have the most seats of any party.[9]
  • A national unity government or grand coalition, including the Social Democrats and all other Alliance parties (243 seats, a supermajority).[10] Annie Lööf (C), Stefan Löfven (S) and Ulf Kristersson (M) have been mentioned as potential leaders, but there was disagreement about who would be prime minister, and Kristersson rejected the idea of Löfven serving another term as prime minister.
    • The Centre Party has mentioned this as an alternative preferred government, claiming that the popularity of SD is a national crisis which can be handled together by all other parties (except V)
    • Regardless of leader, the Social Democrats, Left party and Moderates do not support this, and neither do the Sweden Democrats unless given influence (total 260 seats against). The Social Democrats and Moderates do not want to be in the same government and there cannot be two prime ministers. Also, the Moderates rejected the proposition of Löfven remaining as prime minister, despite the Social Democrats remaining the largest party.
  • A centre-left government including the Social Democrats (as leader), Green Party, Liberals and the Centre Party (167 seats) with support from the Left Party.[10]
    • This would disrupt the Alliance, which, while fragile, is still considered preferable to the Centre and Liberals than relying on the Left. But the Centre and Liberals refuse to break down with Moderates and Christian Democrats.
  • A centrist minority government of L and C under Annie Lööf (C) with support from other parties.[11]
    • Lööf said that the government would not be supported by parliament.
  • A centre-right minority government of Alliance and Green Party (159 seats).[11]
    • Although this solution is currently in place in the Stockholm city council, such a government does not have a majority on the national level and needs support from other parties. The Green Party doesn't accept this.

Formation process

[edit]

Ousting of Löfven

[edit]

Norlén was elected the Speaker of the Riksdag on 24 September 2018, following the first sitting of the Riksdag since the elections with 203 to 145 votes against Åsa Lindestam, who became First Deputy Speaker.[12]

Ballot → 24 September 2018
Required majority → 175 (including abstentions) out of 349
203 / 349
  • • S
  • • V
  • • MP
  • • N/A
145 / 349
Abstentions
  • • None
0 / 349
Absentees
  • • N/A
1 / 349
Result → Andreas Norlén elected checkY
Sources[13]

Prime Minister Stefan Löfven lost the motion of no confidence against him and his cabinet on 25 September 2018, with 142 members of parliament voting to retain Löfven's cabinet and 204 voting against. Löfven stated in a subsequent press conference that he would not step down as Social Democratic party leader and that he was willing to partake in talks regarding the formation of a new government, but insisted that it was ultimately up to the Speaker of the Riksdag. Löfven also stated that he found it completely unbelievable that the Alliance could ever form a government if they keep their promise of not co-operating with the Sweden Democrats.[14][15][16]

2 days later party negotiations for forming a new government commenced.[17] and on 2 October the Speaker of the House, Andreas Norlén, announced that he had tasked Moderate Party leader Ulf Kristersson with forming a government.[18]

On 14 October, Ulf Kristersson held a press conference, stating that he had notified the Speaker of the Riksdag that he is giving up his attempt at forming a government. Kristersson maintained that he still has the intention of becoming prime minister and leading a government consisting of "the entire Alliance, solely the Moderates or those Alliance parties that would be willing to enter into an Alliance government led by myself." He informed the Speaker of the Riksdag that "there is currently no basis for any of these options at this time". The reason for the failure was that the Alliance had fewer seats than the red-greens, so the Sweden Democrats (or the Social Democrats) must support government propositions or they would fail: such need for Sweden Democrat support was not tolerated by the Centre and Liberal parties. They proposed a government including the Social Democrats, which the Moderates rule out.[19]

Stefan Löfven was tasked with forming a government on 15 October 2018, giving him two weeks to construct a stable government coalition.[20] On 29 October, Löfven announced that he too had failed to create a stable government.[21] Norlén then took over the process of government formation directly, though he did not announce a deadline.[22] As the budget must be renewed by 15 November, Swedish Government's finance ministry has been working on a "politically neutral" emergency bill that would avert a second budget crisis if the government is not formed by then.[23]

Investiture
Stefan Löfven (Social Democratic)
Ballot → 25 September 2018
Required majority → 175 (including abstentions) out of 349
Yes
  • • S
  • • V
  • • MP
142 / 349
No
204 / 349
Abstentions
  • • None
0 / 349
Absentees
  • • N/A
3 / 349
Result → No ☒N
Sources

First Riksdag vote

[edit]

On 5 November, Norlén nominated Moderate leader Ulf Kristersson to lead the government. A nomination, in this case, means that the Riksdag will have a confidence vote, rather than merely continuing talks. Centre leader Annie Lööf was critical of the decision, as she had expected to become the third person tasked with forming a stable government coalition. Lööf was also critical of the Moderates as well as the Christian Democrats, accusing them of taking her opportunity of forming a government away (the Speaker is a Moderate), thus disrupting an already fragile Alliance. The vote was set to take place during the week of 12 November, before the budget debate on 15 November.

On 14 November, Kristersson's proposed minority government of Moderates + Christian Democrats supported by Sweden Democrats failed the Riskdag confidence vote 195–154. The Center and Liberal parties broke their alliance, as they refused to accept a government that relied on the Sweden Democrats.[24] The vote was marked the first time a candidate for prime minister was rejected by the Riksdag since the abolition of the bicameral legislature in 1971.[25] The Swedish constitution stipulates that the Riksdag will have four chances to pass a confidence vote, after which a new election will be mandatory.[26]

Investiture
Ulf Kristersson (Moderate Party)
Ballot → 14 November 2018
Required majority → 175 (including abstentions) out of 349
Yes
  • • M (70)
  • • SD (62)
  • • KD (22)
154 / 349
No
  • • S (100)
  • • C (31)
  • • V (28)
  • • L (20)
  • • MP (16)
195 / 349
Abstentions
  • • None
0 / 349
Absentees
  • • None
0 / 349
Result → No ☒N
Sources[24]

Second Riksdag vote and budget vote

[edit]

On 15 November, Norlén tasked Lööf with forming a government, and gave her a one-week extendable deadline. Norlén did not announce a date for a second Riksdag vote, stating only that there would be "one or more votes this autumn."[27] Lööf stated that she wanted to construct a centrist government, and that she wanted the centre-right (M, KD, and L) and the centre-left (S and MP) to agree to negotiate with her about the possibility of forming a new government, excluding the parties that are far-left (V) and far-right (SD).[28][29]

Lööf announced on 22 November that she would concede her attempt to form a government, blaming the Moderates and Social Democrats for being unwilling to compromise.[30] The next day, Norlén nominated Löfven to be the prime minister, without a formally-set date for the vote.[31] He also set the budget vote to occur on 12 December. The Centre Party stated that they may back Löfven (and thus give the red-greens 31 seats, exactly enough for a majority) if Löfven's cabinet agrees to some economic compromises.[32] Soon after, the Liberal Party head Jan Björklund made a similar statement, although the party was internally divided on the matter.[33]

On 12 December, Norlén formally nominated Löfven. As the Centre and Liberals had stated earlier in the week that they were not satisfied with Löfven's negotiations, the outcome of the vote remained uncertain.[34][35] On the same day, the provisional budget was submitted by the caretaker government, but was defeated by an alternative budget created by the Moderates and Christian Democrats, as the Sweden Democrats supported it, and the Centre and Liberal parties decided to abstain from the final vote.[36][37] On 14 December, Löfven lost the confidence vote.[38]

Third Riksdag vote and re-election of Löfven

[edit]

Norlén stated after the vote that he would restart negotiations between the parties, while at the same time preparing for the possibility of a snap election.[42] Norlén then created a finalized timeline for forming a government, and urged Kristersson and Löfven to find a compromise. Without nominating a new candidate, he set the next vote for a prime minister on 16 January, and a final vote on 23 January if the first vote fails. If neither vote succeeds, a snap election will be called immediately, and would likely take place on 7 April according to the Swedish Election Authority.[43][44]

On 11 January 2019, it was reported that the Social Democrats, Greens, Centre and Liberals had reached a deal to support Löfven as prime minister in order to end the deadlock.[45][46][47] These cooperating parties have only 167 members of Riksdag, and need support from one more party. It was assumed that the Left party would back a Social Democrat coalition by default, but the agreement text specifically excluded the Left party from participation on matters covered by the agreement, and left the party out of future coalition negotiations.[48] The Left party criticized being expected to back a government which would leave them without a voice, and on 14 January, Left Party leader Jonas Sjöstedt stated that they would not back the agreement as it stood, calling for further negotiations.[49][50][51][52] Consequently, the speaker deferred the third prime ministerial vote scheduled for 16 January to instead take place on 18 January to allow Löfven and Sjöstedt to reach their own compromise.[53]

On 16 January, Sjöstedt told reporters his party would abstain from voting against Löfven but threatens to initiate a no-confidence vote against him in the future if he supports policies that threaten worker's rights or if he puts forward proposals that further deregulate the rental market.[54] That same day, the Speaker again formally nominated Löfven as a prime ministerial candidate, scheduling a vote in the Riksdag for 18 January.[55] During the vote, Löfven was elected prime minister with 115 Riksdag members voting for him and 77 members who abstained (total of 192 votes). Due to the low number of yes votes Löfven received, he has the third weakest government since the end of World War II as at the time of his election.[56]

The speaker of the Riksdag, Norlén, declared he would nominate Ulf Kristersson for prime minister had the investiture vote failed. This forced the Centre party and the Left party to choose between Löfven, Kristersson (with Åkesson support), and a snap election. The Left party did not want to risk Kristersson becoming the prime minister, and the Centre and Liberal parties did not want a snap election, which, according to polls, could send the Liberals out of the Riksdag and give M+KD+SD a majority.

On 21 January 2019, Löfven unveiled the members of his cabinet and presented his statement of government (regeringsförklaringen) to parliament. As was the case with his first government, the second one consisted of Social Democrats and Greens. They include the following ministers:[57]

Prime Minister's Office:

Ministry of Justice:

Foreign Ministry:

Ministry of Labor:

Ministry of Infrastructure (new department):

Ministry of Finance:

Ministry of Defense:

Ministry of Culture:

Ministry of the Environment:

Ministry of Industry:

Ministry of Health:

Ministry of Education:

Investiture
Stefan Löfven (Social Democratic Party)
Ballot → 18 January 2019
Required majority → 175 (including abstentions) out of 349
Yes
  • • S (99)
  • • MP (16)
115 / 349
Abstentions
  • • C (30)
  • • V (27)
  • • L (20)
77 / 349
Yes + Abstentions
  • • Yes (115)
  • • Abstentions (77)
192 / 349
No
  • • M (69)
  • • SD (61)
  • • KD (22)
  • • C (1)
153 / 349
Absentees
  • • S (1)
  • • M (1)
  • • SD (1)
  • • V (1)
4 / 349
Result → Yes checkY
Sources [58]

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Sennero, Johan; Ahlander, Johan (10 September 2018). "Sweden faces political impasse after far-right election gains". Reuters. Retrieved 10 September 2018.
  2. ^ Barrett, Michael (10 September 2018). "What next for Sweden after election nailbiter?". The Local. Retrieved 10 September 2018.
  3. ^ "Will Sweden be able to form a government?". The local. 10 September 2018. Retrieved 13 September 2018.
  4. ^ "Sweden election: yes, the far right made gains, but we're not falling apart". The Conversation. 10 September 2018. Retrieved 15 January 2019.
  5. ^ "Who will govern Sweden? Eight possible coalition scenarios". 9 October 2018. Retrieved 11 November 2018.
  6. ^ a b "Der Tabu-Koalitionspartner". Der Spiegel. 10 October 2018.
  7. ^ a b Centerpartiet vill se alliansregering utan SD-stöd (13 Oct 2018)
  8. ^ "Löfven sucht eine Lösung". Süddeutsche Zeitung. 21 October 2018.
  9. ^ "Sweden's left gets another chance to form government". Gulf Times. 24 November 2018. Retrieved 20 January 2019.
  10. ^ a b "Annie Lööf als Kompromisskandidatin?". Tagesschau. 15 September 2018.
  11. ^ a b Mannheimer, Edgar (22 November 2018). "Lööf ger upp försöken att bilda regering". Dagens Nyheter.
  12. ^ "Andreas Norlén Elected Speaker of the Riksdag". Publicnow. 24 September 2018. Archived from the original on 25 September 2018. Retrieved 24 September 2018.
  13. ^ "Andreas Norlén elected as new Speaker of the Riksdag". riksdagen.se. Retrieved 21 January 2019.
  14. ^ Olsson, Hans (25 September 2018). "Löfven leder övergångsregering – DN.SE". DN.SE (in Swedish). Retrieved 25 September 2018.
  15. ^ "Stefan Löfven faller – röstade bort ur riksdagen". Expressen. 25 September 2018.
  16. ^ per.kudo@svd.se, Per Kudo |. ""Jag vill fortsätta tjäna vårt land som statsminister" | SvD". SvD.se (in Swedish). Retrieved 25 September 2018.
  17. ^ DN (25 September 2018). "Live: Statsministeromröstning och öppnandet av riksdagen – DN.SE". DN.SE (in Swedish). Retrieved 25 September 2018.
  18. ^ DN (2 October 2018). "Live: Andra talmansrundan – DN.SE". DN.SE (in Swedish). Retrieved 2 October 2018.
  19. ^ Canoilas, Viviana (14 October 2018). "Ulf Kristersson ger upp försöket att bilda regering – DN.SE". DN.SE (in Swedish). Retrieved 14 October 2018.
  20. ^ Tenitskaja, Alexandra Carlsson (15 October 2018). "Efter talmansrundan – Löfven får sonderingsuppdraget – DN.SE". DN.SE (in Swedish). Retrieved 15 October 2018.
  21. ^ Simon Johnson. "Sweden closer to election as Lofven drops bid to form government". Reuters. Archived from the original on 29 October 2018. Retrieved 30 October 2018.
  22. ^ "Gridlock Has Swedish Nationalists Now Hoping for a New Election". Bloomberg.com. 29 October 2018. Retrieved 29 October 2018.
  23. ^ "What next for Sweden amid record-long government talks?". 29 October 2018. Retrieved 29 October 2018.
  24. ^ a b Strand, Arvid (2006). "Ny KU-forskrift". NIBR-notat. doi:10.7577/nibr/notat/2006/130. ISSN 0801-1702.
  25. ^ Tenitskaja, Alexandra Carlsson (14 November 2018). "Ny talmansrunda på torsdagen – DN.SE". DN.SE (in Swedish). Retrieved 14 November 2018.
  26. ^ "Swedish parliament rejects centre-right PM candidate Ulf Kristersson". 14 November 2018. Retrieved 14 November 2018.
  27. ^ "Could Centre Party leader Annie Lööf get Sweden a government?". 15 November 2018. Retrieved 15 November 2018.
  28. ^ "Could Centre Party leader Annie Lööf get Sweden a government?". 15 November 2018.
  29. ^ "Swedish Centre Leader to Lead Government Talks Amid Political Deadlock".
  30. ^ "Dritter Versuch einer Regierungsbildung gescheitert". Spiegel. 22 November 2018.
  31. ^ "Sweden's Social Democrat leader Stefan Löfven to be proposed as PM". 23 November 2018. Retrieved 23 November 2018.
  32. ^ "Centre Party open to Löfven returning as Swedish PM". 27 November 2018. Retrieved 28 November 2018.
  33. ^ "Liberals offer conditional support for Löfven as Swedish PM". 28 November 2018. Retrieved 29 November 2018.
  34. ^ "Sweden stuck in political limbo as Centre party snubs Lofven". Irish Times. Retrieved 11 December 2018.
  35. ^ "Centre-left leader Stefan Löfven to face parliamentary vote as PM". www.thelocal.se. 12 December 2018. Retrieved 13 December 2018.
  36. ^ a b c "Statens budget 2019 Rambeslutet Debatt om förslag 12 december 2018 – Riksdagen". riksdagen.se. Retrieved 12 December 2018.
  37. ^ a b c "Riksdagen röstar om höstbudgeten". Dagens Nyheter (in Swedish). 12 December 2018. Retrieved 12 December 2018.
  38. ^ "Riksdagen röstar nej till Stefan Löfven (S) som statsminister". Dagens Nyheter (in Swedish). 14 December 2018. Retrieved 14 December 2018.
  39. ^ Wendick, Christoffer; Juhlin, Johan; Dahlin, Patrik (13 December 2018). "Löfvens Thailand-känga till Åkesson". SVT Nyheter – via www.svt.se.
  40. ^ "Regierungskrise in Schweden geht weiter – Neuwahlen rücken näher". Archived from the original on 20 December 2018. Retrieved 19 December 2018.
  41. ^ "Stefan Löfven defeated in parliamentary vote". www.thelocal.se. 14 December 2018.
  42. ^ "Sweden starts laying the groundwork for snap election". www.thelocal.se. 14 December 2018. Retrieved 14 December 2018.
  43. ^ "Santa won't bring Sweden a new government for Christmas". www.thelocal.se. 19 December 2018. Retrieved 20 December 2018.
  44. ^ "Extraval kan hållas den 7 april". Dagens Nyheter (in Swedish). 10 January 2019. Retrieved 10 January 2019.
  45. ^ "Aftonbladet erfar: S, MP, C och L överens – redo att bilda regering". aftonbladet.se (in Swedish). 11 January 2019. Retrieved 11 January 2019.
  46. ^ "Swedish parties agree new government to end vote deadlock – Aftonbladet". uk.reuters.com. 11 January 2019. Archived from the original on 11 January 2019. Retrieved 11 January 2019.
  47. ^ "Sweden election BREAKTHROUGH: Sweden 'HAS formed new Government' after months of DEADLOCK". www.express.co.uk. 11 January 2019. Retrieved 11 January 2019.
  48. ^ Utkast till sakpolitisk överenskommelse mellan Socialdemokraterna, Centerpartiet, Liberalerna och Miljöpartiet de gröna (Centerpartiet)
  49. ^ Mellin, Lena (14 January 2019). "Löfven har varit riktigt klantig". Aftonbladet. Retrieved 14 January 2019.
  50. ^ Nyheter, S. V. T.; Borgert, Linnéa; Lindstam, Martin (14 January 2019). "Partistyrelseledamöter vill få bort "V-klausul"". SVT Nyheter. Retrieved 14 January 2019.
  51. ^ Nyheter, S. V. T.; Häkkinen, Lovis (14 January 2019). "Vänsterpartiets besked: Inte rimligt att Löfven röstas fram på onsdag". SVT Nyheter. Retrieved 14 January 2019.
  52. ^ Nyheter, S. V. T.; Benigh, Love; Holmin, Maria (14 January 2019). "V-riksdagsledmöterna: Vi är inga dörrmattor". SVT Nyheter. Retrieved 14 January 2019.
  53. ^ Nyheter, S. V. T.; Häkkinen, Lovis (14 January 2019). "Talmannen: Jag ger partierna 48 timmar att lösa de här problemen". SVT Nyheter. Retrieved 14 January 2019.
  54. ^ Nyheter, S. V. T.; Wicklén, Johan (16 January 2019). "Jonas Sjöstedt: Vänsterpartiet släpper fram Stefan Löfven". SVT Nyheter. Retrieved 16 January 2019.
  55. ^ Nyheter, S. V. T.; Juhlin, Johan (16 January 2019). "Här nominerar talmannen Löfven till statsministerposten". SVT Nyheter. Retrieved 16 January 2019.
  56. ^ Eklundh, Johanna (18 January 2019). "En av de svagaste regeringarna sedan efterkrigstiden". SVT Nyheter.
  57. ^ Eklundh, Johanna (21 January 2019). "Alla Löfven-regeringens ministrar – hela listan". SVT Nyheter. Retrieved 22 January 2019.
  58. ^ "Voteringsprotokoll statsministeromrostning 20190118" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 19 January 2019. Retrieved 18 January 2019.
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