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Energy system transformation

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Main article: Energy transition
Energy use in industry caused 24.2% of all GHG emissions in 2016. Energy use in buildings and transport caused 17.5% and 16.2% of emissions, respectively. Another 9.5% of emissions came from other energy uses and 5.8% were fugitive emissions from the production of fossil fuels.[1]

The emissions reductions necessary to keep global warming below 2 °C will require a system-wide transformation of the way energy is produced, distributed, stored, and consumed.[2] For a society to replace one form of energy with another, multiple technologies and behaviours in the energy system must change. For example, transitioning from oil to solar power as the energy source for cars requires the generation of solar electricity, modifications to the electrical grid to accommodate fluctuations in solar panel output or the introduction of variable battery chargers and higher overall demand, adoption of electric cars, and networks of electric vehicle charging facilities and repair shops.[3]

Many climate change mitigation pathways envision three main aspects of a low-carbon energy system:

  • The use of low-emission energy sources to produce electricity
  • Electrification – that is increased use of electricity instead of directly burning fossil fuels
  • Accelerated adoption of energy efficiency measures[4]

Some energy-intensive technologies and processes are difficult to electrify, including aviation, shipping, and steelmaking. There are several options for reducing the emissions from these sectors: biofuels and synthetic carbon-neutral fuels can power many vehicles that are designed to burn fossil fuels, however biofuels cannot be sustainably produced in the quantities needed and synthetic fuels are currently very expensive.[5] For some applications, the most prominent alternative to electrification is to develop a system based on sustainably-produced hydrogen fuel.[6]

Full decarbonisation of the global energy system is expected to take several decades and can mostly be achieved with existing technologies.[7] The IEA states that further innovation in the energy sector, such as in battery technologies and carbon-neutral fuels, is needed to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.[8] Developing new technologies requires research and development, demonstration, and cost reductions via deployment.[8] The transition to a zero-carbon energy system will bring strong co-benefits for human health: The World Health Organization estimates that efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 °C could save millions of lives each year from reductions to air pollution alone.[9][10] With good planning and management, pathways exist to provide universal access to electricity and clean cooking by 2030 in ways that are consistent with climate goals.[11][12] Historically, several countries have made rapid economic gains through coal usage.[11] However, there remains a window of opportunity for many poor countries and regions to "leapfrog" fossil fuel dependency by developing their energy systems based on renewables, given adequate international investment and knowledge transfer.[11]

Integrating variable energy sources

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Short terraces of houses, with their entire sloping roofs covered with solar panels
Buildings in the Solar Settlement at Schlierberg, Germany, produce more energy than they consume. They incorporate rooftop solar panels and are built for maximum energy efficiency.[13]

To deliver reliable electricity from variable renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, electrical power systems require flexibility.[14] Most electrical grids were constructed for non-intermittent energy sources such as coal-fired power plants.[15] As larger amounts of solar and wind energy are integrated into the grid, changes have to be made to the energy system to ensure that the supply of electricity is matched to demand.[16] In 2019, these sources generated 8.5% of worldwide electricity, a share that has grown rapidly.[17]

There are various ways to make the electricity system more flexible. In many places, wind and solar generation are complementary on a daily and a seasonal scale: there is more wind during the night and in winter when solar energy production is low.[16] Linking different geographical regions through long-distance transmission lines allows for further cancelling out of variability.[18] Energy demand can be shifted in time through energy demand management and the use of smart grids, matching the times when variable energy production is highest. With grid energy storage, energy produced in excess can be released when needed.[16] Further flexibility could be provided from sector coupling, that is coupling the electricity sector to the heat and mobility sector via power-to-heat-systems and electric vehicles.[19]

Building overcapacity for wind and solar generation can help ensure that enough electricity is produced even during poor weather. In optimal weather, energy generation may have to be curtailed if excess electricity cannot be used or stored. The final demand-supply mismatch may be covered by using dispatchable energy sources such as hydropower, bioenergy, or natural gas.[20]

Energy storage

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Main articles: Energy storage and Grid energy storage
Photo with a set of white containers
Battery storage facility

Energy storage helps overcome barriers to intermittent renewable energy and is an important aspect of a sustainable energy system.[21] The most commonly used and available storage method is pumped-storage hydroelectricity, which requires locations with large differences in height and access to water.[21] Batteries, especially lithium-ion batteries, are also deployed widely.[22] Batteries typically store electricity for short periods; research is ongoing into technology with sufficient capacity to last through seasons.[23] Costs of utility-scale batteries in the US have fallen by around 70% since 2015, however the cost and low energy density of batteries makes them impractical for the very large energy storage needed to balance inter-seasonal variations in energy production.[24] Pumped hydro storage and power-to-gas (converting electricity to gas and back) with capacity for multi-month usage has been implemented in some locations.[25][26]

Electrification

[edit]
Main article: Electrification
Photograph two fans, the outdoor section of a heat pump
The outdoor section of a heat pump. In contrast to oil and gas boilers, they use electricity and are highly efficient. As such, electrification of heating can significantly reduce emissions.[27]

Compared to the rest of the energy system, emissions can be reduced much faster in the electricity sector.[4] As of 2019, 37% of global electricity is produced from low-carbon sources (renewables and nuclear energy). Fossil fuels, primarily coal, produce the rest of the electricity supply.[28] One of the easiest and fastest ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is to phase out coal-fired power plants and increase renewable electricity generation.[4]

Climate change mitigation pathways envision extensive electrification—the use of electricity as a substitute for the direct burning of fossil fuels for heating buildings and for transport.[4] Ambitious climate policy would see a doubling of energy share consumed as electricity by 2050, from 20% in 2020.[29]

Infrastructure for generating and storing renewable electricity requires minerals and metals, such as cobalt and lithium for batteries and copper for solar panels.[30] Recycling can meet some of this demand if product lifecycles are well-designed, however achieving net zero emissions would still require major increases in mining for 17 types of metals and minerals.[30] A small group of countries or companies sometimes dominate the markets for these commodities, raising geopolitical concerns.[31] Most of the world's cobalt, for instance, is mined in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a politically unstable region where mining is often associated with human rights risks.[30] More diverse geographical sourcing may ensure a more flexible and less brittle supply chain.[32]

Hydrogen

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Main articles: Hydrogen economy, Hydrogen fuel, and Hydrogen storage

Hydrogen is a gas that can be burned to produce heat or combined with oxygen in fuel cells to generate electricity directly, with water being the only emissions at the point of usage. The overall lifecycle emissions of hydrogen depend on how it is produced. Nearly all of the world's current supply of hydrogen is created from fossil fuels.[33][34] The main method is steam methane reforming, in which hydrogen is produced from a chemical reaction between steam and methane, the main component of natural gas. Producing one tonne of hydrogen through this process emits 6.6–9.3 tonnes of carbon dioxide.[35] While carbon capture can remove a large fraction of these emissions, the overall carbon footprint of hydrogen from natural gas is difficult to assess as of 2021, in part because of emissions created in the production of the natural gas itself.[36]

Electricity can be used to split water molecules, producing sustainable hydrogen provided the electricity was generated sustainably. However, this electrolysis process is currently financially more expensive than creating hydrogen from methane and the efficiency of energy conversion is inherently low.[6] Hydrogen can be produced when there is a surplus of variable renewable electricity, then stored and used to generate heat or to re-generate electricity.[37] It can be further transformed into synthetic fuels such as ammonia and methanol.[38]

Innovation in hydrogen electrolysers could make large-scale production of hydrogen from electricity more cost-competitive.[39] There is potential for hydrogen to play a significant role in decarbonising energy systems because in certain sectors, replacing fossil fuels with direct use of electricity would be very difficult.[6] Hydrogen fuel can produce the intense heat required for industrial production of steel, cement, glass, and chemicals. For steelmaking, hydrogen can function as a clean energy carrier and simultaneously as a low-carbon catalyst replacing coal-derived coke.[40] Disadvantages of hydrogen as an energy carrier include high costs of storage and distribution due to hydrogen's explosivity, its large volume compared to other fuels, and its tendency to make pipes brittle.[36]

Energy usage technologies

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Transport

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Group of cyclists using a bike lane in Vancouver, Canada
Utility cycling infrastructure, such as this bike lane in Vancouver, encourages sustainable transport.[41]
Main article: Sustainable transport

Transport accounts for 14% of global greenhouse gas emissions,[42] but there are multiple ways to make transport more sustainable. Public transport typically emits fewer greenhouse gases per passenger than personal vehicles, since trains and buses can carry many more passengers at once.[43][44] Short-distance flights can be replaced by high-speed rail, which is more efficient, especially when electrified.[45][46] Promoting non-motorised transport such as walking and cycling, particularly in cities, can make transport cleaner and healthier.[47][48]

The energy efficiency of cars has increased over time,[49] but shifting to electric vehicles is an important further step towards decarbonising transport and reducing air pollution.[50] Light-duty cars in particular are a prime candidate for decarbonization using battery technology. 25% of the world's CO2 emissions still originate from the transportation sector.[51]

Long-distance freight transport and aviation are difficult sectors to electrify with current technologies, mostly because of the weight of batteries needed for long-distance travel, battery recharging times, and limited battery lifespans.[52][24] Where available, freight transport by ship and rail is generally more sustainable than by air and by road.[53] Hydrogen vehicles may be an option for larger vehicles such as lorries.[54] Many of the techniques needed to lower emissions from shipping and aviation are still early in their development, with ammonia (produced from hydrogen) a promising candidate for shipping fuel.[55] Aviation biofuel may be one of the better uses of bioenergy if emissions are captured and stored during manufacture of the fuel.[56]

Buildings and cooking

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Further information: Renewable heat, Green building, and Energy poverty and cooking
Building with windcatcher towers
Passive cooling features, such as these windcatcher towers in Iran, bring cool air into buildings without any use of energy.[57]
Electric induction oven
For cooking, electric induction stoves are one of the most energy-efficient and safest options.[58][59]

Over one-third of energy use is in buildings and their construction.[60] To heat buildings, alternatives to burning fossil fuels and biomass include electrification through heat pumps or electric heaters, geothermal energy, central solar heating, reuse of waste heat, and seasonal thermal energy storage.[61][62][63] Heat pumps provide both heat and air conditioning through a single appliance.[64] The IEA estimates heat pumps could provide over 90% of space and water heating requirements globally.[65]

A highly efficient way to heat buildings is through district heating, in which heat is generated in a centralised location and then distributed to multiple buildings through insulated pipes. Traditionally, most district heating systems have used fossil fuels, but modern and cold district heating systems are designed to use high shares of renewable energy.[66][67]

Cooling of buildings can be made more efficient through passive building design, planning that minimises the urban heat island effect, and district cooling systems that cool multiple buildings with piped cold water.[68][69] Air conditioning requires large amounts of electricity and is not always affordable for poorer households.[69] Some air conditioning units still use refrigerants that are greenhouse gases, as some countries have not ratified the Kigali Amendment to only use climate-friendly refrigerants.[70]

In developing countries where populations suffer from energy poverty, polluting fuels such as wood or animal dung are often used for cooking. Cooking with these fuels is generally unsustainable, because they release harmful smoke and because harvesting wood can lead to forest degradation.[71] The universal adoption of clean cooking facilities, which are already ubiquitous in rich countries,[58] would dramatically improve health and have minimal negative effects on climate.[72] Industry

Over one-third of energy use is by industry. Most of that energy is deployed in thermal processes: generating heat, drying, and refrigeration. The share of renewable energy in industry was 14.5% in 2017—mostly low-temperature heat supplied by bioenergy and electricity. The most energy-intensive activities in industry have the lowest shares of renewable energy, as they face limitations in generating heat at temperatures over 200 °C (390 °F).[73]

For some industrial processes, commercialisation of technologies that have not yet been built or operated at full scale will be needed to eliminate greenhouse gas emissions.[74] Steelmaking, for instance, is difficult to electrify because it traditionally uses coke, which is derived from coal, both to create very high-temperature heat and as an ingredient in the steel itself.[75] The production of plastic, cement, and fertilisers also requires significant amounts of energy, with limited possibilities available to decarbonise.[76] A switch to a circular economy would make industry more sustainable as it involves recycling more and thereby using less energy compared to investing energy to mine and refine new raw materials.[77]

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