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2023-24 Queensland Severe Weather Outbreak
Shelf cloud in Eastern Brisbane on December 26th 2023
Shelf cloud in Eastern Brisbane on December 26th 2023
TypeSevere Weather Outbreak (Severe Thunderstorms, Heatwaves, Tornadoes and Flooding)
Formed23 December 2023
Duration11 days
Dissipated3 January 2023
Highest winds
Tornadoes
confirmed		1
Largest hail9cm at Burpengary and 10cm at Gatton
CasualtiesAt least 10 people killed, many others injured or hospitalised
DamageEstimates of A$1.1 to 2 billion in damages
Power outages>130,000 different properties affected at some point during the outbreak
Areas affectedSouth Eastern Queensland including Greater Brisbane, Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast
Part of 2023-24 South East Queensland Severe Weather Season

Claims of hailstones reaching 15-16cm, although unverified.

2023-24 Queensland Severe Weather Outbreak

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The 2023-24 Queensland Severe Weather Outbreak was an extended period of severe weather that impacted South East Queensland from December 23 2023 to January 3 2024[1][2]. Reports of giant hail hailstones reaching 10 to 13cm at Gatton on December 23.[3] Reports of giant hailstones reaching 9cm at Burpengary on December 24th 2023, [4] a tornado that struck the Gold Coast and Scenic Rim on December 25th 2023[5], a severe heatwave impacting South East Queensland on the December 28 and December 29th 2023, [6] and flash flooding[1] all occurred around this time.

Meteorological conditions & synopsis

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Meteorological Conditions

[edit]

On the 15th of December 2023, chances of stormy weather on Christmas were first raised .[7] On December 18th 2023, The Bureau of Meteorology issued it's Christmas Day Forecast and predicted stormy weather across Brisbane.[8][9] On December 21st 2023, The Early Warning Network detailed the risk of Severe Thunderstorms happening on December 24th 2023, December 25th 2023, and December 26th 2023.[10] A cut off low was forecasted to interact with a surface low throughout Eastern Queensland and New South Wales resulting in favourable conditions for thunderstorms to develop.[11] On December 22nd, the Bureau of Meteorology started issuing forecasts for the potential for severe thunderstorms for December 24th 2023, December 25th 2023 and December 26th 2023 including the risk of heavy rain, giant hail and damaging winds.[12] The atmosphere during this time was forecasted to be exceptionally unstable due to an unusual combination for this time of year. This included a strong jet stream, warm moist air interacting with the cool air above which resulted in CAPE values (a measure of instability in the atmosphere) reaching extraordinarily high levels for the region, exceeding 3,000 J/kg whereas the typical levels are normally 500-1,000 J/kg for Eastern Australia and a broad-scale low pressure trough all forecasted to play a role[13][14] The moisture by Ex-Tropical Cyclone Jasper, while mixing with cold air float caused by a upper level low over New South Wales allowed severe storms to be produce over many days.[2]

December 23rd 2023 - Supercell near Gatton

[edit]
December 23 - Gatton Supercell
TypeSupercell
Formed9:04pm AEST, 23 December 2023
Duration3 hours and 5 minutes
Dissipated12:09am AEST, 24 December 2023
(Exited to sea on 24 December 2023)
Highest winds
  • Destructive winds (>125 km/h)
Largest hail10cm at Gatton
CasualtiesUnknown
DamageUnknown
Power outagesUnknown
Areas affectedGatton and surrounding areas
Part of 2023-24 Severe Weather Outbreak

At 6:15pm AEST a warning was issued for a storm near Toowoomba that produced large hail, damaging winds and heavy rain.[15] The severe thunderstorm warning across South East Queensland was cancelled at 7:13pm AEST.[16] At 8:23pm AEST, a warning area included in South East Queensland.[17] at 9:05pm AEST, a severe thunderstorm warning was issued for heavy rainfall in South East Queensland between Ipswich and Toowoomba [18] a second warning for damaging winds, heavy rain and large hail was then issued for same storm at 9:18pm AEST[19] at 9:39pm AEST a third warning was issued for destructive winds, giant hail and heavy rain with a storm south of Helidon producing destructive winds and giant hail, while the storm North west of Cunninghams gap was producing giant hail, heavy rain and destructive winds. Both of these storms were moving east[20] The storms continued moving east, near Gatton with a new warning issued at 9:57pm AEST[21] At 10:32pm AEST, The Bureau of Meteorology issued another warning that a very dangerous thunderstorm that was producing destructive winds along with giant hail was near Loowood with the storm moving eastwards. Another severe storm producing destructive winds, heavy rain and giant hail was near Boonah and also moving eastward. 10cm hailstones at Gatton were also reported [22] At 11:21pm AEST, The Bureau of Meteorology issued an updated warning for giant hail, damaging wind and heavy rain with a very dangerous thunderstorm near Mount Nebo that was producing giant hail and damaging winds while another severe storm was producing large hail and heavy rain near Archerfield and Wacol. [23] At 11:33pm AEST the warning was updated with severe thunderstorms producing large hail, damaging winds and heavy rain moving off the coast[24] At 12:09am AEST on December 24th, the warning was cancelled in South East Queensland. [25] The storm on December 23rd 2023 caused damage to roofs and blew out windows due to the large nature of hail.[3]

December 24th 2023 - Christmas Eve severe thunderstorms

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Christmas Eve Severe Thunderstorms
TypeSevere Thunderstorm Outbreak
FormedEntered SEQ at 9:28am AEST
Duration12 hours, 36 minutes
DissipatedAll warnings cancelled by 10:04pm AEST
Highest winds
  • Damaging winds (>90 km/h)
Largest hail9cm (confirmed), claims of 15-16cm near Burpengary
Maximum rainfall58mm in 30 minutes at Wivenhoe
Casualties0
Power outages57,500 properties affected
Areas affectedSouth Eastern Queensland (especially around Brisbane and Moreton Bay)

Early on the 24th of December 2023, The Bureau of Meteorology warned the potential that severe thunderstorm that could produce damaging winds along with large hail and heavy in areas of South East Queensland were possible. [26] A warning for South East Queensland for severe thunderstorms containing damaging winds, heavy rain and large was issued at 9:28am AEST.[27] Later on December 24th 2023, severe thunderstorms moved east across South East Queensland, with a warning issued at 11:24am AEST by the Bureau of Meteorology for a very dangerous thunderstorm near Fernvale and Southern Lake Wivenhoe containing destructive winds, intense rain and giant hail that hit the Northern Brisbane Area near Strathpine and Southern Moreton Bay.[28] [29] with a second follow-up warning being issued at 11:46am AEST to include new storms that developed near Southern Brisbane and Northern Gold Coast with the storms moving off shore,[30]with the storms that hit Moreton Bay around Burpengary having reports of 9cm hailstones in it's wake,[31][32] and at Dayboro having reports of 8cm hail,[33][34] with an unverified claim of hailstones reaching 15 or 16cm[35][36] which would be tied to the record set near Mackay in October of 2021[32][36] A third warning issued was issued for heavy rain, large hail and damaging winds at 12:15pm AEST[37] A fourth warning including areas outside of South East Queensland was then issued at 1:10pm AEST[38] by 1:30pm AEST, 57,500 different properties had lost power across South East Queensland due to the storms that extended from the Darling Downs into Northern New South Wales.[33] A fifth warning was issued at 2:08pm AEST with the warning area moved further north into the Sunshine Coast[39] further warnings were issued over the hours for Northern Sunshine Coast[40] [41][42] at 6:27pm AEST the warning over the Sunshine Coast region was cancelled, and a new warning further south was issued for a severe storm containing damaging winds, large hail and heavy rain near Cunninghams Gap. [43] The warning was then reissued at 8:13pm AEST[44] before being cancelled in South East Queensland at 10:04pm AEST[45]

December 25th 2023 - Christmas Day storms

[edit]
South East Queensland Christmas Day QLCS & Tornado
TypeQLCS Quasi Linear Convective System with embedded Tornadoes
FormedEntered SEQ at 7pm
DurationSeveral Hours
DissipatedAll warnings cancelled by 10:19pm
(Exited to sea on 24 December)
Highest winds
Tornadoes
confirmed		At least 1
Max. rating1EF2 tornado
Duration of
tornado outbreak2		Unknown, at least 30 minutes
CasualtiesAt least 4 people dead, 8 injured
DamageNo official damage estimate but the damage was considerable including houses destroyed, with roofs ripped off, trampolines being tossed and trees being snapped.
Power outages122,000 properties without power including 84,500 of those being in the Gold Coast
Areas affectedSouth East Queensland with worst areas being The Gold Coast, Scenic Rim, Brisbane and The Redlands
1Most severe tornado damage; see Fujita scale
2Time from first tornado to last tornado
Some of the power outage count maybe influenced from days prior

The weather on December 25th 2023 was extremely hot and humid (even by South East Queensland standards), by 9am Amberly (A suburb of Ipswich) had recorded a temperature of 29 °C, and a dew point of 21 °C, by 3pm it had risen to over 34 °C and a dew point of 24 °C. [2]These values are well above the average for the area where the mean 9am temperatures & dewpoint at Amberly for this time of year is 25.2 °C and 17.4 °C dewpoint respectively.[46] some of this moisture was caused from Ex-Tropical Cyclone Jasper which mixed with cold air above to provide a highly volatile atmosphere and when combined with good wind shear made the atmosphere primed for thunderstorm development with Surface based CAPE values in excess of 5,600 Jkg and LI (lifted index) values below -12 °C combined with a extremely capped atmosphere, initially limited storm activity.[2] The sky on Christmas Day was also very clear.[3] All of these led to the Bureau of Meteorology forecasting further thunderstorm activity with damaging winds, heavy rain and large hail all being possible, with further forecasts of very dangerous thunderstorms that can produce destructive winds, giant hail and intense rainfall also on the 25th of December 2023 for residents in South East Queensland.[12][47][48] Storms initially initiated further west outside of South East Queensland likely due to more favourable conditions with the storms moving gradually moving east over the afternoon and evening.[49][2] Activity was limited over vast areas of South East Queensland during the afternoon with only some minor activity present across the border regions with New South Wales likely aided by orographic lifting, the main storm system which had now become a QLCS (Quasi-Linear Convective Storm) didn't arrive in South East Coastal Region till just after 7pm AEST, however Surface Based CAPE values were still well in excess of 4,000 J/kg at this time.[2] the first warning for Inland South East Queensland was issued at 5:09pm AEST for damaging winds, large hail and heavy rain[50] The warning was followed up with another warning at 6:19pm AEST, with severe thunderstorms developing along the trough and moving eastwards.[51] The warning was updated again at 7:49pm AEST with storms producing damaging winds, large hail and heavy rain near Gatton, Crows Nest, and areas North of Warwick.[52] The limited nature of the activity so far allowed for the QLCS to enter into a relatively untouched atmosphere, giving plenty of energy for the QLCS to use up. The QLCS was producing wind gusts in excess of 100 km/h (60 mp/h) in some areas. [2] At 7:56pm AEST, a warning was issued for a very dangerous thunderstorm that was producing large to giant hail, damaging winds and heavy rain near Laravale, while another warning was issued near Gatton and the areas North east of Warwick, for other severe thunderstorms that were moving east and producing damaging winds, large hail and heavy rain. [53] The untouched highly unstable nature of the atmosphere combining with strong wind gusts allowed significant updraft development to develop along the leading edge of QLCS accelerating the storm towards the Northern Gold Coast.[2] At 8:04pm AEST a new warning was issued with severe thunderstorms continuing to produce large hail, damaging winds and heavy rain across South East Queensland.[54] A more detailed thunderstorm warning for South East Queensland was issued at 8:48pm AEST with a very dangerous thunderstorm warning issued for a storm Northeast of Rathdowney near Beaudesert and Boonah that was producing destructive winds, giant hail and heavy rain.[55] The storm continued moving towards the east, with a new warning issued at 9:06pm AEST for the storm that was producing destructive winds, giant hail and heavy rain. [56] Another warning was issued at 9:28pm AEST with the storm continuing to produce destructive winds, giant hail and heavy rain near Jacobs Well and the mouth of the Logan River.[57] A subsequent warning for damaging to destructive winds, large hail and heavy rain was issued at 9:48pm AEST with the storms starting to moving offshore.[58] All warnings were cancelled by 10:19pm AEST[12] Further analysis by Weatherwatch in the days after the event concluded that while smaller-embedded tornadoes were possible within the system, most of the damage was likely caused by straight-line more akin to a Derecho or QLCS than a tornado due to the long-lived and very wide nature of the damage path left behind from this storm.[2] However, reports from Higgins Storm Chasing indicated a tornado tracking across Mt. Tamborine area in the evening, which is consistent with radar imagery and damage reports. [59] The Bureau of Meteorology confirmed a tornado had formed in the Gold Coast and Scenic Rim and caused very wide spread levels of destruction with the wind speeds estimated to be at least 150 km/h (93 mp/h)[60] with a private station recording winds speed up to 160 km/h (99 mp/h),[61]and with the real wind speeds being potentially even higher than that.[2] [5]The highest official recorded wind speed in South East Queensland from an official weather station though was only 106 kilometres an hour (66 mp/h) at Gold Coast Seaway[5] at 9:12pm AEST.[12][59] Regardless, the Deputy Premier of Queensland Cameron Dick referred to the storm as a "mini cyclone" [62]

December 26th 2023 - Boxing Day Supercells

[edit]
26th December 2023 Supercells
Formed1:26pm AEST
Duration6 hours and 20 minutes
DissipatedAll warnings cancelled in SEQ by 7:46pm AEST
Highest winds
  • 60 kilometres an hour (100 mph) at Gympie at 2:34pm AEST
Largest hail3.5cm at Zillmere
Maximum rainfall85mm in 2 hours (to 6:30pm AEST) in Brisbane City, 83mm in Camp Hill and 82mm in East Brisbane.
Casualties7 people confirmed dead by December 26th

The weather forecast on the 26th of December 2023 continued to be a repeat of the forecast on Christmas Day with hot and humid conditions forecasted to continue with more thunderstorms producing damaging winds, heavy rain and large hail.[63] A warning was initially issued for Northern South East Queensland at 1:19pm AEST for damaging winds, large hailstones and heavy rain.[64] At 1:26pm AEST, a severe thunderstorm warning was issued for a thunderstorm containing damaging winds, large hail and heavy rain near Narangba with the storm moving in a Southeasterly direction.[65] At 2:02pm AEST, a new warning was issued for the storm producing damaging winds, heavy rain and large hail with the storm near the suburb of Strathpine [66] At 2:22pm AEST another warning was issued by The Bureau of Meteorology for damaging winds, large hail and heavy rain with the storm now near the coastal suburb of Nudgee and the Airport with the storm continuing to move in a Southeasterly direction.[67] at 2:41pm AEST, the warning area was extended further.[68] and further again at 3:07pm AEST[69] with all of South East Queensland in the warning area map by 3:24pm AEST[70] Another warning was issued at 3:54pm AEST for very dangerous thunderstorms impacting numerous areas in South East Queensland.[71]A more detailed warning was issued at 5:19pm AEST for severe thunderstorms likely to produce damaging winds, large hail and heavy rain across various areas in South East Queensland with storms moving in a Southeasterly direction, with 62mm of rainfall and 60mm of rainfall recorded in 1 hour at Jindalee and Pullenvale respectively. [72] A new warning was issued at 5:39pm AEST with severe thunderstorms over South East Queensland including Brisbane, Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast.[73] A warning was issued at 6:29pm AEST with 3.5cm hailstones recorded at Zilimere and very dangerous thunderstorms likely with destructive winds, giant hailstone and heavy rain near Cherbourg and more severe thunderstorms in other areas in South East Queensland.[74] A new warning came out at 6:51pm AEST with multiple reports of heavy rainfall including 85mm in Brisbane City, 83mm at Camp Hill and 82mm in Eastern Brisbane (all within the time span of 2 hours) with a very dangerous thunderstorm near Goomeri producing destructive winds, giant hail and heavy rain while other severe storms were producing large hail, damaging winds and heavy rain throughout areas in South East Queensland. [75]All warnings were cancelled in South Eastern Queensland by 7:46pm AEST.[76] By December 26th, a major flood warning was issued for Logan, with another major flood in Beaudesert. [62]

Heatwaves & Floods

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More storms were forecasted on December 27th, mainly north of Brisbane with the chance of severe storms reduced. [60]

Aftermath

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Power outages (Temporary header)

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The storm system caused over 130,000 properties to lose power.[77]

References

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