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Rapid intensification (RI) is any process wherein a tropical cyclone strengthens dramatically in a short period of time. Tropical cyclone forecasting agencies utilize differing thresholds for designating rapid intensification events, though the most widely-used definition stipulates an increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 knots (55 km/h; 35 mph) in a 24-hour period. However, periods of rapid intensification often last longer than a day. About 20–30% of all tropical cyclones undergo rapid intensification, including a majority of tropical cyclones with peak wind speeds exceeding 51 m/s (180 km/h; 110 mph).

Rapid intensification constitutes a major source of error for tropical cyclone forecasting, and its predictability is commonly cited as a key area for improvement. The specific physical mechanisms that underlie rapid intensification and the environmental conditions necessary to support rapid intensification are unclear due to the complex interactions between the environment surrounding tropical cyclones and internal processes within the storms. Rapid intensification events are typically associated with warm sea surface temperatures and the availability of moist and potentially unstable air. The effect of wind shear on tropical cyclones is highly variable and can both enable or prevent rapid intensification. Rapid intensification events are also linked to the appearance of hot towers and bursts of strong convection within the core region of tropical cyclones, but it is not known whether such convective bursts are a cause or a byproduct of rapid intensification.

The frequency of rapid intensification has increased over the last four decades globally, both over open waters and near coastlines. The increased likelihood of rapid intensification has been linked with an increased tendency for tropical cyclone environments to enable intensification as a result of climate change. These changes may arise from warming ocean waters and the influence on climate change on the thermodynamic characteristics of the troposphere.

Definition and nomenclature

There is no globally consistent definition of rapid intensification. Thresholds for rapid intensification – by the magnitude of increase in maximum sustained winds and the brevity of the intensification period – are based on the distribution of high-percentile intensification cases in the respective tropical cyclone basins.^[3] The thresholds also depend on the averaging period used to assess the storm's winds.^[4]^[a] In 2003, John Kaplan of the Hurricane Research Division and Mark DeMaria of the Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Team at Colorado State University defined rapid intensification as an an increase in the maximum one-minute sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 knots (55 km/h; 35 mph) in a 24-hour period. This increase in winds approximately corresponds to the 95th percentile of Atlantic tropical cyclone intensity changes over water from 1989 to 2000.^[6]^[7] These thresholds for defining rapid intensification are commonly used, but other thresholds are utilized in related scientific literature.^[8] The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) reflects the thresholds of Kaplan and DeMaria in its definition of rapid intensification.^[9] The NHC also defines a similar quantity, rapid deepening, as a decrease in the minimum barometric pressure in a tropical cyclone of at least 42 mbar (1.2 inHg) in 24 hours.^[10]

Characteristics

Around 20–30% of all tropical cyclones experience at least one period of rapid intensification, including a majority of tropical cyclones with winds exceeding 51 m/s (180 km/h; 110 mph).^[11] The tendency for strong tropical cyclones to have undergone rapid intensification and the infrequency with which storms gradually strengthen to strong intensities leads to a bimodal distribution in global tropical cyclone intensities, with weaker and stronger tropical cyclones being more commonplace than tropcial cyclones of intermediate strength.^[12] Episodes of rapid intensification typically last longer than 24 hours.^[3] Within the North Atlantic, intensification rates are on average fastest for storms with maximum one-minute sustained wind speeds of 70–80 kn (130–150 km/h; 80–90 mph). In the South-West Indian Ocean, intensification rates are fastest for storms with maximum ten-minute sustained wind speeds of 65–75 kn (120–140 km/h; 75–85 mph). Smaller tropical cyclones are more likely to undergo quick intensity changes, including rapid intensification, potentially due to a greater sensitivity to their surrounding environments.^[13] Hurricane Patricia experienced a 54 m/s (190 km/h; 120 mph) increase in its maximum sustained winds over 24 hours in 2015, setting a global record for 24-hour wind speed increase.^[14] In 2019, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimated that Cyclone Ambali's winds increased by 51 m/s (180 km/h; 110 mph) in 24 hours, marking the highest 24-hour wind speed increase for a tropical cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere since at least 1980.^[15]^[16]

Tropical cyclones frequently become more axisymmetric prior to rapid intensification, with a strong relationship between a storm's degree of axisymmetry during initial development and its intensification rate. However, the asymmetric emergence of strong convection and hot towers near within inner core of tropical cyclones can also portend rapid intensification.^[3] The development of localized deep convection (termed "convective bursts"^[17]) increases the structural organization of tropical cyclones in the upper troposphere and offsets the entrainment of drier and more stable air from the lower stratosphere,^[18] but whether bursts of deep convection induce rapid intensification or vice versa is unclear.^[3]^[18] Hot towers have been implicated in rapid intensification, though they have diagnostically seen varied impacts across basins.^[19] A survey of tropical cyclones sampled by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission suggested that rapidly intensifying storms were distinguished from other storms by the large extent and high magnitude of rainfall in their inner core regions.^[20]

The characteristics of environments in which storms rapidly intensify do not vastly differ from those that engender slower intensification rates.^[11] High sea surface temperatures and oceanic heat content are potentially crucial in enabling rapid intensification.^[18] Waters with strong horizontal SST gradients or strong salinity stratification may favor stronger air–sea fluxes of enthalpy and moisture, providing more conducive conditions for rapid intensification.^[22] Vertical wind shear adds additional uncertainty in predicting the behavior of storm intensity and the timing of rapid intensification. The presence of wind shear concentrates convective available potential energy (CAPE) and helicity and strengthens inflow within the downshear^[b] region of the tropical cyclone. Such conditions are conducive to vigorous rotating convection, which can induce rapid intensification if located close enough to the tropical cyclone's core of high vorticity. However, wind shear also concurrently produces conditions unfavorable to convection within a tropical cyclone's upshear^[b] region by entraining dry air into the storm and inducing subsidence. These upshear conditions can be brought into the initially favorable downshear regions, becoming deleterious to the tropical cyclone's intensity and forestalling rapid intensification.^[11] Simulations also suggest that rapid intensification episodes are sensitive to the timing of wind shear.^[22] Tropical cyclones that undergo rapid intensification in the presence of moderate (5–10 m/s (20–35 km/h; 10–20 mph)) wind shear may exhibit similarly asymmetric convective structures.^[23] In such cases, outflow from the sheared tropical cyclone may interact with the surrounding environment in ways that locally reduce wind shear and permit further intensification.^[24] The interaction of tropical cyclones with upper-tropospheric troughs can also be conducive to rapid intensification, particularly when involving troughs with shorter wavelengths and larger distances between the trough and the tropical cyclone.^[22]

Within environments favorable for rapid intensification, stochastic internal processes within storms play a larger role in modulating the rate of intensification. In some cases, the onset of rapid intensification is preceded by the large release of convective instability from moist air (characterized by high equivalent potential temperature), enabling an increase in convection around the center of the tropical cyclone.^[11] Rapid intensification events may also be related to the character and distribution of convection about the tropical cyclone. One study indicated that a substantial increase in stratiform precipitation throughout the storm signified the beginning of rapid intensification.^[3] In 2023, a National Center for Atmospheric Research study of rapid intensification using computer simulations identified two pathways for tropical cyclones to rapidly intensifying. In the "marathon" mode of rapid intensification, conducive environmental conditions including low wind shear and high SSTs promote symmetric intensification of tropical cyclone at a relatively moderate pace over a prolonged period. The "sprint" mode of rapid intensification is faster and more brief, but typically occurs in conditions long assumed to be unfavorable for intensification, such as in the presence of strong wind shear. This faster mode involves convective bursts removed from the tropical cyclone center that can rearrange the storm circulation or produce a new center of circulation. The modeled tropical cyclones undergoing the sprint mode of rapid intensification tended to peak at lower intensities (sustained winds below 51 m/s (185 km/h; 115 mph)) than those undergoing the marathon mode of rapid intensification.^[25]^[26]

Improving predictability and forecasting

Rapid intensification is a significant source of error in tropical cyclone forecasting, and the timing of rapid intensification episodes has low predictability.^[3]^[27] Rapid intensity changes near land can greatly influence tropical cyclone preparedness and public risk perception.^[13] Increasing the predictability of rapid intensity changes has been identified as a top priority by operational forecasting centers.^[28] In 2012, the NHC listed prediction of rapid intensification as their highest priority item for improvement.^[29] Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) was a field experiment led by NASA Earth Science to in part study rapid intensification. Multiple aircraft including the uncrewed Northrop Grumman RQ-4 Global Hawk were used to probe the rapid intensification events of hurricanes Earl and Karl during the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.^[30]^[31] In December 2016, the CYGNSS SmallSat constellation was launched with a goal of measure ocean surface wind speeds with sufficiently high temporal resolution to resolve rapid intensification events.^[32]^[33]^[13] The TROPICS satellite constellation includes studying rapid changes in tropical cyclones as one of its core science objectives.^[17] Weather models have also shown an improved ability to project rapid intensification events,^[34] but continue to face difficulties in accurately depicting their timing and magnitude.^[35] Statistical models show greater forecast skill in anticipating rapid intensification compared to dynamical weather models.^[17]^[36] Intensity predictions derived from artificial neural networks may also provide more accurate predictions of rapid intensification than established methods.^[28]

Because forecast errors at 24-hour leadtimes are greater for rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones than other cases, operational forecasts do not typically depict rapid intensification.^[37] Probabilistic and deterministic forecasting tools have been developed to increase forecast confidence and aid forecasters in anticipating rapid intensification episodes. These aids have been integrated into the operational forecasting procedures of Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMCs) and are factored into tropical cyclone intensity forecasts worldwide.^[28] For example, the Rapid Intensification Index (RII) – a quantification of the likelihood of rapid intensification for varying degrees of wind increases based on forecasts of environmental parameters^[38] – is utilized by RMSC Tokyo–Typhoon Center, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), and the NHC.^[28] An intensity prediction product is being developed at RSMC La Réunion for the South-West Indian Ocean based on tools developed in other tropical cyclone basins.^[13] The Rapid Intensity Prediction Aid (RIPA) increases the consensus intensity forecast provided by the JTWC's principal tropical cyclone intensity forecasting aid if at least a 40% chance of rapid intensification is assessed and has been used since 2018.^[28] The JTWC reported that a large increasing trend in the probability of rapid intensification assessed using RIPA was associated with higher likelihoods of rapid intensification. The JTWC is also experimenting with additional rapid intensification forecasting aids relying on a variety of statistical methods.^[28] Intensity forecasting tools incorporating predictors for rapid intensification are also being developed and used in operations at other forecasting agencies such as the Korea Meteorological Administration and the Indian Meteorological Department.^[39]

Trends

The first working group report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report – published in 2021 – assessed that the global occurrence of rapid intensification likely increased over the preceding four decades (during the period of reliable satellite data), with "medium confidence" in this change exceeding the effect of natural climate variability and thus stemming from anthropogenic climate change.^[40]^{: 1519, 1585} The likelihood of a tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds undergoing rapid intensification has increased from 1 percent in the 1980s to 5 percent.^[41] Statistically significant increases in the frequency of tropical cyclones undergoing multiple episodes of rapid intensification have also been observed since the 1980s.^[42] These increases have been observed across the various tropical cyclone basins and may be associated with the thermodynamic properties of environments becoming increasingly conducive to intensification as a result of anthropogenic emissions.^[7] Reductions of wind shear due to climate change may also increase the probability of rapid intensification.^[43]^[41] The frequency of rapid intensification within 400 km (250 mi) of coastlines has also tripled between 1980 and 2020. This trend may be caused by a warming of coastal waters and a westward trend in the locations of peak tropical cyclone intensities stemming from broader changes to environmental steering flows.^[44] A long-term increase in the magnitude of rapid intensification has also been observed over the Central and Tropical Atlantic as well as the western North Pacific.^[45]^[46] However, CMIP5 climate projections suggest that environmental conditions in by the end of the 21st century may be less favorable for rapid intensification in all tropical cyclone basins outside of the North Indian Ocean.^[47]

Notes

^ The recorded sustained speed of the wind depends on the length of time over which near-instantaneous wind speeds are averaged. In contrast to wind gust measurements, sustained wind measurements are treated as representative of the background mean wind. The World Meteorological Organization standard for gauging the mean wind is a 10-minute average, but 1-minute and 3-minute averaging periods are also commonly used to estimate tropical cyclone wind speeds.^[5]
^ ^a ^b The downshear side of a tropical cyclone is the side in the direction of the wind shear vector, analogous to downwind. The upshear side of a tropical cyclone is the side opposite the direction of the wind shear vector, analogous to upwind.

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[sustained-6] The recorded sustained speed of the wind depends on the length of time over which near-instantaneous wind speeds are averaged. In contrast to wind gust measurements, sustained wind measurements are treated as representative of the background mean wind. The World Meteorological Organization standard for gauging the mean wind is a 10-minute average, but 1-minute and 3-minute averaging periods are also commonly used to estimate tropical cyclone wind speeds.^[5]

[downshear-24] The downshear side of a tropical cyclone is the side in the direction of the wind shear vector, analogous to downwind. The upshear side of a tropical cyclone is the side opposite the direction of the wind shear vector, analogous to upwind.

[JovaLeeExploded-1] Bartels, Meghan (8 September 2023). "How Hurricanes Jova and Lee Rapidly Exploded into Category 5 Storms". Scientific American. Retrieved 5 November 2023.

[2] Reinhart, Amanda (6 September 2023). "Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 10". Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 5 November 2023.

[Hendricks_et_al._2019-3] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f Hendricks, Eric A.; Braun, Scott A.; Vigh, Jonathan L.; Courtney, Joseph B. (December 2019). "A summary of research advances on tropical cyclone intensity change from 2014-2018". Tropical Cyclone Research and Review. 8 (4): 219–225. doi:10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.01.002.

[Tam_and_Choy_2021-4] Tam, Hiu‐fai; Choy, Chun‐wing; Wong, Wai‐kin (March 2021). "Development of objective forecast guidance on tropical cyclone rapid intensity change". Meteorological Applications. 28 (2). doi:10.1002/met.1981.

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-{{short description|Situation in which a tropical cyclone strongly intensifies in a short time}}
+{{short description|Sudden, violent increase in a tropical cyclone's severity}}
+{{Use American English|date=November 2023}}
+{{Use dmy dates|date=November 2023}}
 {{about|tropical cyclones|extratropical cyclones|Explosive cyclogenesis}}
-[[File:Jova 2023-09-06 1340Z - 2023-09-07 0130Z.gif|thumb|250px|Infrared satellite loop of [[Hurricane Jova (2023)|Hurricane Jova]] in September 2023, as it underwent rapid intensification]]
+[[File:Jova 2023-09-06 1340Z - 2023-09-07 0130Z.gif|thumb|upright=2.5em|Infrared satellite loop of [[Hurricane Jova (2023)|Hurricane Jova]] undergoing rapid intensification in September 2023<ref name="JovaLeeExploded">{{cite news |last1=Bartels |first1=Meghan |title=How Hurricanes Jova and Lee Rapidly Exploded into Category 5 Storms |url=https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-hurricanes-jova-and-lee-rapidly-exploded-into-category-5-storms1/ |access-date=5 November 2023 |work=Scientific American |date=8 September 2023}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |last1=Reinhart |first1=Amanda |title=Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 10 |url=https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/ep11/ep112023.discus.010.shtml |publisher=National Hurricane Center |access-date=5 November 2023 |location=Miami, Florida |date=6 September 2023}}</ref>|alt=Looping animation of a hurricane]]
-In [[meteorology]], '''rapid intensification''' is any process wherein a [[tropical cyclone]] intensifies dramatically in a short period of time. The United States [[National Hurricane Center]] defines rapid intensification as an increase in the [[maximum sustained winds]] of a tropical cyclone of at least {{convert|30|kn|mph km/h|round=5}} in a 24-hour period.<ref name="NHC glossary">{{cite web|title=Glossary of NHC Terms|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml|publisher=United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service|access-date=April 1, 2014|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140515065249/http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml|archive-date=May 15, 2014|url-status=live|author=National Hurricane Center|date=March 25, 2013}}</ref>
+'''Rapid intensification''' (RI) is any process wherein a [[tropical cyclone]] strengthens dramatically in a short period of time. [[Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre|Tropical cyclone forecasting agencies]] utilize differing thresholds for designating rapid intensification events, though the most widely-used definition stipulates an increase in the [[maximum sustained wind]]s of a tropical cyclone of at least {{convert|30|knot|km/h mph|round=5}} in a 24-hour period. However, periods of rapid intensification often last longer than a day. About 20–30% of all tropical cyclones undergo rapid intensification, including a majority of tropical cyclones with peak wind speeds exceeding {{cvt|51|m/s|km/h mph}}.
-==Necessary conditions==
+Rapid intensification constitutes a major source of error for [[tropical cyclone forecasting]], and its predictability is commonly cited as a key area for improvement. The specific physical mechanisms that underlie rapid intensification and the environmental conditions necessary to support rapid intensification are unclear due to the complex interactions between the environment surrounding tropical cyclones and internal processes within the storms. Rapid intensification events are typically associated with warm [[sea surface temperature]]s and the availability of moist and [[atmospheric instability|potentially unstable]] air. The effect of [[wind shear]] on tropical cyclones is highly variable and can both enable or prevent rapid intensification. Rapid intensification events are also linked to the appearance of [[hot tower]]s and bursts of strong [[atmospheric convection|convection]] within the core region of tropical cyclones, but it is not known whether such convective bursts are a cause or a byproduct of rapid intensification.
-===External===
-In order for rapid intensification to occur, several conditions must be in place. [[Sea surface temperature|Water temperatures]] must be extremely warm (near or above {{cvt|30|C||disp=comma}}), and water of this temperature must be sufficiently deep that waves do not churn deeper cooler waters up to the surface. [[Wind shear]] must be low; when wind shear is high, the [[Convection#Atmospheric convection|convection]] and circulation in the cyclone will be disrupted.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-patricia-factors-for-rapid-intensification-strongest-hurricane-on|title=Multiple Factors Allowed Hurricane Patricia to Rapidly Intensify|first=Linda|last=Lam|publisher=The Weather Channel|date=October 23, 2015|access-date=August 6, 2018}}</ref> Dry air can also limit the strengthening of tropical cyclones.<ref>{{cite news |last=Lam |first=Linda |title=Based on Hurricane Florence's Location, We Didn't Expect It to Get So Strong So Soon|url=https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-09-06-hurricane-florence-rapid-intensification-rare-major-hurricane |access-date=September 7, 2018 |work=The Weather Channel |date=September 7, 2018}}</ref>
+The frequency of rapid intensification has increased over the last four decades globally, both over open waters and near coastlines. The increased likelihood of rapid intensification has been linked with an increased tendency for tropical cyclone environments to enable intensification as a result of [[climate change]]. These changes may arise from warming ocean waters and the influence on climate change on the thermodynamic characteristics of the [[troposphere]].
-===Internal===
-Usually, an [[anticyclone]] in the upper layers of the [[troposphere]] above the storm must also be present for extremely low surface pressures to develop. This is because air must be converging towards the low pressure at the surface, which the requires the air to rise very rapidly in the [[Eye (cyclone)|eyewall]] of the storm due to conservation of mass, which in turn also requires a divergence of wind at the top of the troposphere. This process is aided by an upper-level anticyclone which helps efficiently channel this air away from the cyclone.<ref name="Energetics">{{cite web |last=Engle |first=Diana |title=Hurricane Structure and Energetics |url=http://www.newmediastudio.org/DataDiscovery/Hurr_ED_Center/Hurr_Structure_Energetics/Hurr_Struct.html |publisher=Data Discovery Hurricane Science Center |access-date=October 26, 2008 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080527094650/http://www.newmediastudio.org/DataDiscovery/Hurr_ED_Center/Hurr_Structure_Energetics/Hurr_Struct.html<!-- Bot retrieved archive --> |archive-date=May 27, 2008}}</ref> [[Hot towers]] have been implicated in tropical cyclone rapid intensification, though they have diagnostically seen varied impacts across basins.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Zhuge |first1=Xiao-Yong |last2=Ming |first2=Jie |last3=Wang |first3=Yuan |title=Reassessing the Use of Inner-Core Hot Towers to Predict Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification* |journal=Weather and Forecasting |volume=30 |issue=5 |pages=1265–1279 |date=October 2015 |bibcode=2015WtFor..30.1265Z |doi=10.1175/WAF-D-15-0024.1 |doi-access=free}}</ref>
-==Previous nomenclature and definitions==
+== Definition and nomenclature ==
+[[File:Hurricane Patricia RAMMB loop.gif|thumb|[[Hurricane Patricia]]'s {{cvt|54|m/s|km/h mph|adj=on}} 24-hour wind speed increase was the largest of any tropical cyclone on record.|alt=Animated infrared satellite imagery of a tropical cyclone]]
-The United States National Hurricane Center previously defined '''''rapid deepening''''' of a tropical cyclone, when the minimum central pressure decreased by {{convert|42|mbar|inHg|sigfig=4}} over a 24-hour period.<ref name="NHC/TPC glossary">{{cite web|title=Glossary of NHC/TPC Terms|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml|publisher=United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service|access-date=April 1, 2014|archive-date=October 17, 2005|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20051017214734/http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml|author=National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center|url-status=live|date=February 7, 2005}}</ref> Currently it is defined as an increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least {{convert|30|kn|mph km/h|round=5}} in a 24-hour period.<ref name="NHC glossary"/>
+There is no globally consistent definition of rapid intensification. Thresholds for rapid intensification{{snd}}by the magnitude of increase in [[maximum sustained wind]]s and the brevity of the intensification period{{snd}}are based on the distribution of high-percentile intensification cases in the respective [[tropical cyclone basin]]s.<ref name="Hendricks et al. 2019" /> The thresholds also depend on the averaging period used to assess the storm's winds.<ref name="Tam and Choy 2021">{{cite journal |last1=Tam |first1=Hiu‐fai |last2=Choy |first2=Chun‐wing |last3=Wong |first3=Wai‐kin |title=Development of objective forecast guidance on tropical cyclone rapid intensity change |journal=Meteorological Applications |date=March 2021 |volume=28 |issue=2 |doi=10.1002/met.1981}}</ref>{{efn|The recorded sustained speed of the wind depends on the length of time over which near-instantaneous wind speeds are averaged. In contrast to [[wind gust]] measurements, sustained wind measurements are treated as representative of the background mean wind. The [[World Meteorological Organization]] standard for gauging the mean wind is a 10-minute average, but 1-minute and 3-minute averaging periods are also commonly used to estimate tropical cyclone wind speeds.<ref name="SustainedWindWMO">{{cite report|type=Technical Document|last1=Harper |first1=B. A. |last2=Kepert |first2=J. D. |last3=Ginger |first3=J. D. |title=Guidelines for converting between various wind averaging periods in tropical cyclone conditions (WMO/TD-No. 1555)|date=August 2010 |url=https://library.wmo.int/viewer/48652?medianame=wmo-td_1555_en_ |access-date=6 November 2023 |publisher=World Meteorological Organization |location=Geneva, Switzerland}}</ref>|name=sustained}} In 2003, John Kaplan of the [[Hurricane Research Division]] and Mark DeMaria of the Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Team at [[Colorado State University]] defined rapid intensification as an an increase in the maximum one-minute sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least {{convert|30|knot|km/h mph|round=5}} in a 24-hour period. This increase in winds approximately corresponds to the 95th percentile of [[Atlantic hurricane|Atlantic tropical cyclone]] intensity changes over water from 1989 to 2000.<ref name="Kaplan and DeMaria 2003">{{cite journal |last1=Kaplan |first1=John |last2=DeMaria |first2=Mark |title=Large-Scale Characteristics of Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin |journal=Weather and Forecasting |date=December 2003 |volume=18 |issue=6 |pages=1093–1108 |doi=10.1175/1520-0434(2003)018<1093:LCORIT>2.0.CO;2}}</ref><ref name="Bhatia et al. 2022">{{cite journal |last1=Bhatia |first1=Kieran |last2=Baker |first2=Alexander |last3=Yang |first3=Wenchang |last4=Vecchi |first4=Gabriel |last5=Knutson |first5=Thomas |last6=Murakami |first6=Hiroyuki |last7=Kossin |first7=James |last8=Hodges |first8=Kevin |last9=Dixon |first9=Keith |last10=Bronselaer |first10=Benjamin |last11=Whitlock |first11=Carolyn |title=A potential explanation for the global increase in tropical cyclone rapid intensification |journal=Nature Communications |date=November 2022 |volume=13 |issue=1 |doi=10.1038/s41467-022-34321-6}}</ref> These thresholds for defining rapid intensification are commonly used, but other thresholds are utilized in related scientific literature.<ref name="Li et al. 2022">{{cite journal |last1=Li |first1=Yi |last2=Tang |first2=Youmin |last3=Toumi |first3=Ralf |last4=Wang |first4=Shuai |title=Revisiting the Definition of Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones by Clustering the Initial Intensity and Inner‐Core Size |journal=Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |date=October 2022 |volume=127 |issue=20 |doi=10.1029/2022JD036870}}</ref> The U.S. [[National Hurricane Center]] (NHC) reflects the thresholds of Kaplan and DeMaria in its definition of rapid intensification.<ref name="NHCGlossary">{{cite web |title=Glossary of NHC Terms |url=https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml |publisher=National Hurricane Center |access-date=3 November 2023 |location=Miami, Florida}}</ref> The NHC also defines a similar quantity, ''rapid deepening'', as a decrease in the minimum [[barometric pressure]] in a tropical cyclone of at least {{cvt|42|mbar|inHg|lk=on}} in 24&nbsp;hours.<ref name="Prikryl et al. 2019">{{cite journal |last1=Prikryl |first1=Paul |last2=Nikitina |first2=Lidia |last3=Rušin |first3=Vojto |title=Rapid intensification of tropical cyclones in the context of the solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere coupling |journal=Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics |date=February 2019 |volume=183 |pages=36–60 |doi=10.1016/j.jastp.2018.12.009}}</ref>
+== Characteristics ==
-==Forecasting==
+Around 20–30% of all tropical cyclones experience at least one period of rapid intensification, including a majority of tropical cyclones with winds exceeding {{cvt|51|m/s|km/h mph}}.<ref name="Sippel 2015">{{cite book |last1=Sippel |first1=J.A. |editor1-last=North |editor1-first=Gerald R. |editor2-last=Pyle |editor2-first=John |editor3-last=Zhang |editor3-first=Fuqing |title=Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences |date=2015 |publisher=Elsevier |isbn=978-0-12-382225-3 |pages=32–33 |edition=Second |url=|doi=10.1016/B978-0-12-382225-3.00497-7 |chapter=Hurricane Predictability}}</ref> The tendency for strong tropical cyclones to have undergone rapid intensification and the infrequency with which storms gradually strengthen to strong intensities leads to a bimodal distribution in global tropical cyclone intensities, with weaker and stronger tropical cyclones being more commonplace than tropcial cyclones of intermediate strength.<ref name="Lee et al. 2016">{{cite journal |last1=Lee |first1=Chia-Ying |last2=Tippett |first2=Michael K. |last3=Sobel |first3=Adam H. |last4=Camargo |first4=Suzana J. |title=Rapid intensification and the bimodal distribution of tropical cyclone intensity |journal=Nature Communications |date=3 February 2016 |volume=7 |issue=1 |doi=10.1038/ncomms10625}}</ref> Episodes of rapid intensification typically last longer than 24&nbsp;hours.<ref name="Hendricks et al. 2019" /> Within the North Atlantic, intensification rates are on average fastest for storms with maximum one-minute sustained wind speeds of {{cvt|70|–|80|knot|km/h mph|round=5}}. In the [[South-West Indian Ocean tropical cyclone|South-West Indian Ocean]], intensification rates are fastest for storms with maximum ten-minute sustained wind speeds of {{cvt|65|–|75|knot|km/h mph|round=5}}. Smaller tropical cyclones are more likely to undergo quick intensity changes, including rapid intensification, potentially due to a greater sensitivity to their surrounding environments.<ref name="Leroux et al. 2018" /> [[Hurricane Patricia]] experienced a {{cvt|54|m/s|km/h mph}} increase in its maximum sustained winds over 24&nbsp;hours in 2015, setting a global record for 24-hour wind speed increase.<ref name="Rogers et al. 2017">{{cite journal |last1=Rogers |first1=Robert F. |last2=Aberson |first2=Sim |last3=Bell |first3=Michael M. |last4=Cecil |first4=Daniel J. |last5=Doyle |first5=James D. |last6=Kimberlain |first6=Todd B. |last7=Morgerman |first7=Josh |last8=Shay |first8=Lynn K. |last9=Velden |first9=Christopher |title=Rewriting the Tropical Record Books: The Extraordinary Intensification of Hurricane Patricia (2015) |journal=Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society |date=October 2017 |volume=98 |issue=10 |pages=2091–2112 |doi=10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0039.1}}</ref> In 2019, the [[Joint Typhoon Warning Center]] (JTWC) estimated that [[Cyclone Ambali]]'s winds increased by {{cvt|51|m/s|km/h mph}} in 24&nbsp;hours, marking the highest 24-hour wind speed increase for a tropical cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere since at least 1980.<ref name="RoguesGallery">{{cite web |last1=Masters |first1=Jeff |title=A Rogues’ Gallery of the Five Category 5 Storms of 2019 |url=https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/eye-of-the-storm/a-rogues-gallery-of-the-five-category-5-storms-of-2019/ |website=Eye of the Storm |publisher=Scientific American |access-date=6 November 2023 |date=9 January 2020}}</ref><ref name="RecordSettingAmbali">{{cite news |last1=Cappucci |first1=Matthew |last2=Freedman |first2=Andrew |title=Record-setting Tropical Cyclone Ambali intensifies from tropical storm to borderline Category 5 monster in 24 hours |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/12/06/record-setting-tropical-cyclone-ambali-intensifies-tropical-storm-category-monster-hours/ |url-access=subscription |access-date=6 November 2023 |work=The Washington Post |date=6 December 2019}}</ref>
-Probabilistic metrics estimating the likelihood of rapid intensification based on characteristics of the environment surrounding tropical cyclones have been developed and used operationally in storm forecasting.<ref name="Kaplan et al. 2010">{{cite journal |last1=Kaplan |first1=John |last2=DeMaria |first2=Mark |last3=Knaff |first3=John A. |title=A Revised Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Index for the Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific Basins |journal=Weather and Forecasting |date=1 February 2010 |volume=25 |issue=1 |pages=220–241 |doi=10.1175/2009WAF2222280.1}}</ref><ref name="DeMaria et al. 2021">{{cite journal |last1=DeMaria |first1=Mark |last2=Franklin |first2=James L. |last3=Onderlinde |first3=Matthew J. |last4=Kaplan |first4=John |title=Operational Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification at the National Hurricane Center |journal=Atmosphere |date=26 May 2021 |volume=12 |issue=6 |pages=683 |doi=10.3390/atmos12060683}}</ref> Weather models have also shown an improved ability to project rapid intensification events,<ref name="Cangialosi et al. 2020">{{cite journal |last1=Cangialosi |first1=John P. |last2=Blake |first2=Eric |last3=DeMaria |first3=Mark |last4=Penny |first4=Andrew |last5=Latto |first5=Andrew |last6=Rappaport |first6=Edward |last7=Tallapragada |first7=Vijay |title=Recent Progress in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting at the National Hurricane Center |journal=Weather and Forecasting |date=1 October 2020 |volume=35 |issue=5 |pages=1913–1922 |doi=10.1175/WAF-D-20-0059.1}}</ref> but continue to face difficulties in accurately depicting their timing and magnitude.<ref name="Zhang et al. 2023">{{cite journal |last1=Zhang |first1=Zhan |last2=Wang |first2=Weiguo |last3=Doyle |first3=James D. |last4=Moskaitis |first4=Jonathan |last5=Komaromi |first5=William A. |last6=Heming |first6=Julian |last7=Magnusson |first7=Linus |last8=Cangialosi |first8=John P. |last9=Cowan |first9=Levi |last10=Brennan |first10=Michael |last11=Ma |first11=Suhong |last12=Das |first12=Ananda Kumar |last13=Takuya |first13=Hosomi |last14=Clegg |first14=Peter |last15=Birchard |first15=Thomas |last16=Knaff |first16=John A. |last17=Kaplan |first17=John |last18=Mohapatra |first18=Mrutyunjay |last19=Sharma |first19=Monica |last20=Masaaki |first20=Ikegami |last21=Wu |first21=Liguang |last22=Blake |first22=Eric |title=A review of recent advances (2018–2021) on tropical cyclone intensity change from operational perspectives, part 1: Dynamical model guidance |journal=Tropical Cyclone Research and Review |date=March 2023 |volume=12 |issue=1 |pages=30–49 |doi=10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.05.004}}</ref>
+[[File:Delta 2020 rapid intensification.gif|thumb|left|Bursts of convection in the core region of tropical cyclones are associated with rapid intensification.|alt=Satellite animation of a rapidly intensifying hurricane]]
-The later half of the 21st century forecasts envision stronger [[Greenhouse effect|greenhouse gas forcing]] dominating [[Atlantic multidecadal oscillation|natural variability]] which along with [[Ocean heat content|warming sea surface temperatures]] will create more intense hurricanes along the U.S. Atlantic coasts.<ref>{{cite journal|title=Past and Future Hurricane Intensity Change along the U.S. East Coast|first1=Mingfang|last1=Ting|first2=James|last2=P. Kossin|first3=Suzana|last3=J. Camargo|first4=Li|last4=Cuihua|journal=Scientific Reports|volume=9|issue=1|publisher=[[United States National Library of Medicine]]|date=24 May 2019|page=7795 |doi=10.1038/s41598-019-44252-w |pmid=31127128 |pmc=6534560 }}</ref> The same period forecasts for the Gulf of Mexico coasts indicate sufficient [[wind shear]] in place to somewhat diminish rapid storm intensification. Atlantic storms, [[Hurricane Maria]] and [[Hurricane Harvey]] intensified rapidly in 2017.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/26/climate/hurricane-ian-rapid-intensification.html|title=A 'Nightmare' for Forecasters: Here's Why Hurricanes Are Getting Stronger, Faster|first=Alena|last=Shao|newspaper=[[The New York Times]]|date=26 September 2022|access-date=27 September 2022}}</ref>
+Tropical cyclones frequently become more [[axisymmetric]] prior to rapid intensification, with a strong relationship between a storm's degree of axisymmetry during initial development and its intensification rate. However, the asymmetric emergence of strong [[atmospheric convection|convection]] and [[hot tower]]s near within inner core of tropical cyclones can also portend rapid intensification.<ref name="Hendricks et al. 2019" /> The development of localized deep convection (termed "convective bursts"<ref name="Blackwell et al. 2018" />) increases the structural organization of tropical cyclones in the upper [[troposphere]] and offsets the [[Entrainment (meteorology)|entrainment]] of drier and more [[atmospheric instability|stable]] air from the lower [[stratosphere]],<ref name="Elsberry et al. 2013" /> but whether bursts of deep convection induce rapid intensification or vice versa is unclear.<ref name="Hendricks et al. 2019">{{cite journal |last1=Hendricks |first1=Eric A. |last2=Braun |first2=Scott A. |last3=Vigh |first3=Jonathan L. |last4=Courtney |first4=Joseph B. |title=A summary of research advances on tropical cyclone intensity change from 2014-2018 |journal=Tropical Cyclone Research and Review |date=December 2019 |volume=8 |issue=4 |pages=219–225 |doi=10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.01.002}}</ref><ref name="Elsberry et al. 2013" /> Hot towers have been implicated in rapid intensification, though they have diagnostically seen varied impacts across basins.<ref name="Zhuge et al. 2015">{{cite journal |last1=Zhuge |first1=Xiao-Yong |last2=Ming |first2=Jie |last3=Wang |first3=Yuan |title=Reassessing the Use of Inner-Core Hot Towers to Predict Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification* |journal=Weather and Forecasting |date=October 2015 |volume=30 |issue=5 |pages=1265–1279 |doi=10.1175/WAF-D-15-0024.1}}</ref> A survey of tropical cyclones sampled by the [[Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission]] suggested that rapidly intensifying storms were distinguished from other storms by the large extent and high magnitude of rainfall in their inner core regions.<ref name="Jiang and Ramirez 2013">{{cite journal |last1=Jiang |first1=Haiyan |last2=Ramirez |first2=Ellen M. |title=Necessary Conditions for Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification as Derived from 11 Years of TRMM Data |journal=Journal of Climate |date=September 2013 |volume=26 |issue=17 |pages=6459–6470 |doi=10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00432.1}}</ref>
+[[File:MMI of Jelawat rapidly intensifying.gif|thumb|[[Microwave]] imagery of [[Typhoon Jelawat (2018)|Typhoon Jelawat]] during a period of rapid intensification in March 2018<ref name="Zou and Tian 2019">{{cite journal |last1=Zou |first1=Xiaolei |last2=Tian |first2=Xiaoxu |title=Comparison of ATMS Striping Noise Between NOAA-20 and S-NPP and Noise Impact on Warm Core Retrieval of Typhoon Jelawat (2018) |journal=IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing |date=July 2019 |volume=12 |issue=7 |pages=2504–2512 |doi=10.1109/JSTARS.2019.2891683}}</ref>|alt=Animated view of a rapidly intensifying typhoon]]
-==See also==
+The characteristics of environments in which storms rapidly intensify do not vastly differ from those that engender slower intensification rates.<ref name="Sippel 2015" /> High [[sea surface temperature]]s and [[oceanic heat content]] are potentially crucial in enabling rapid intensification.<ref name="Elsberry et al. 2013">{{cite journal |last1=Elsberry |first1=Russell L. |last2=Chen |first2=Lianshou |last3=Davidson |first3=Jim |last4=Rogers |first4=Robert |last5=Wang |first5=Yuqing |last6=Wu |first6=Liguang |title=Advances in Understanding and Forecasting Rapidly Changing Phenomena in Tropical Cyclones |journal=Tropical Cyclone Research and Review |date=February 2013 |volume=2 |issue=1 |pages=13–24 |doi=10.6057/2013TCRR01.02}}</ref> Waters with strong horizontal SST gradients or strong [[ocean stratification|salinity stratification]] may favor stronger air–sea fluxes of [[enthalpy]] and moisture, providing more conducive conditions for rapid intensification.<ref name="Wadler et al. 2023">{{cite journal |last1=Wadler |first1=Joshua B. |last2=Rudzin |first2=Johna E. |last3=Jaimes de la Cruz |first3=Benjamin |last4=Chen |first4=Jie |last5=Fischer |first5=Michael |last6=Chen |first6=Guanghua |last7=Qin |first7=Nannan |last8=Tang |first8=Brian |last9=Li |first9=Qingqing |title=A review of Recent Research Progress on the Effect of External Influences on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change |journal=Tropical Cyclone Research and Review |date=September 2023 |doi=10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.09.001}}</ref> Vertical [[wind shear]] adds additional uncertainty in predicting the behavior of storm intensity and the timing of rapid intensification. The presence of wind shear concentrates [[convective available potential energy]] (CAPE) and [[Hydrodynamical helicity#Meteorology|helicity]] and strengthens [[Inflow (meteorology)#Tropical cyclones|inflow]] within the downshear{{efn|The downshear side of a tropical cyclone is the side in the direction of the wind shear vector, analogous to [[wikt:downwind|downwind]]. The upshear side of a tropical cyclone is the side opposite the direction of the wind shear vector, analogous to [[wikt:upwind|upwind]].|name=downshear}}  region of the tropical cyclone. Such conditions are conducive to vigorous rotating convection, which can induce rapid intensification if located close enough to the tropical cyclone's core of high [[vorticity]]. However, wind shear also concurrently produces conditions unfavorable to convection within a tropical cyclone's upshear{{efn|name=downshear}} region by [[Entrainment (meteorology)|entraining]] dry air into the storm and inducing [[subsidence (atmosphere)|subsidence]]. These upshear conditions can be brought into the initially favorable downshear regions, becoming deleterious to the tropical cyclone's intensity and forestalling rapid intensification.<ref name="Sippel 2015" /> Simulations also suggest that rapid intensification episodes are sensitive to the timing of wind shear.<ref name="Wadler et al. 2023" /> Tropical cyclones that undergo rapid intensification in the presence of moderate ({{cvt|5|–|10|m/s|km/h mph|round=5}})  wind shear may exhibit similarly asymmetric convective structures.<ref name="Ryglicki et al. 2018">{{cite journal |last1=Ryglicki |first1=David R. |last2=Cossuth |first2=Joshua H. |last3=Hodyss |first3=Daniel |last4=Doyle |first4=James D. |title=The Unexpected Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones in Moderate Vertical Wind Shear. Part I: Overview and Observations |journal=Monthly Weather Review |date=November 2018 |volume=146 |issue=11 |pages=3773–3800 |doi=10.1175/MWR-D-18-0020.1}}</ref> In such cases, [[outflow (meteorology)|outflow]] from the sheared tropical cyclone may interact with the surrounding environment in ways that locally reduce wind shear and permit further intensification.<ref name="Ryglicki et al. 2019c">{{cite journal |last1=Ryglicki |first1=David R. |last2=Doyle |first2=James D. |last3=Hodyss |first3=Daniel |last4=Cossuth |first4=Joshua H. |last5=Jin |first5=Yi |last6=Viner |first6=Kevin C. |last7=Schmidt |first7=Jerome M. |title=The Unexpected Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones in Moderate Vertical Wind Shear. Part III: Outflow–Environment Interaction |journal=Monthly Weather Review |date=August 2019 |volume=147 |issue=8 |pages=2919–2940 |doi=10.1175/MWR-D-18-0370.1}}</ref> The interaction of tropical cyclones with upper-tropospheric [[trough (meteorology)|trough]]s can also be conducive to rapid intensification, particularly when involving troughs with [[Shortwave trough|shorter wavelengths]] and larger distances between the trough and the tropical cyclone.<ref name="Wadler et al. 2023" />
-{{Portal|Tropical cyclones}}
-*[[Tropical cyclone]]
-*[[List of the most intense tropical cyclones]]
-*[[Explosive cyclogenesis]]
-*[[Annular tropical cyclone]]
+Within environments favorable for rapid intensification, stochastic internal processes within storms play a larger role in modulating the rate of intensification. In some cases, the onset of rapid intensification is preceded by the large release of [[convective instability]] from moist air (characterized by high [[equivalent potential temperature]]), enabling an increase in [[atmospheric convection|convection]] around the center of the tropical cyclone.<ref name="Sippel 2015" /> Rapid intensification events may also be related to the character and distribution of convection about the tropical cyclone. One study indicated that a substantial increase in [[stratiform]] precipitation throughout the storm signified the beginning of rapid intensification.<ref name="Hendricks et al. 2019" /> In 2023, a [[National Center for Atmospheric Research]] study of rapid intensification using computer simulations identified two pathways for tropical cyclones to rapidly intensifying. In the "marathon" mode of rapid intensification, conducive environmental conditions including low wind shear and high SSTs promote symmetric intensification of tropical cyclone at a relatively moderate pace over a prolonged period. The "sprint" mode of rapid intensification is faster and more brief, but typically occurs in conditions long assumed to be unfavorable for intensification, such as in the presence of strong wind shear. This faster mode involves convective bursts removed from the tropical cyclone center that can rearrange the storm circulation or produce a new center of circulation. The modeled tropical cyclones undergoing the sprint mode of rapid intensification tended to peak at lower intensities (sustained winds below {{cvt|51|m/s|km/h mph|round=5}}) than those undergoing the marathon mode of rapid intensification.<ref name="Judt et al. 2023">{{cite journal |last1=Judt |first1=Falko |last2=Rios-Berrios |first2=Rosimar |last3=Bryan |first3=George H. |title=Marathon versus Sprint: Two Modes of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in a Global Convection-Permitting Simulation |journal=Monthly Weather Review |date=October 2023 |volume=151 |issue=10 |pages=2683–2699 |doi=10.1175/MWR-D-23-0038.1}}</ref><ref name="TwoWays">{{cite web |last1=Hosansky |first1=David |title=Scientists find two ways that hurricanes rapidly intensify |url=https://news.ucar.edu/132924/scientists-find-two-ways-hurricanes-rapidly-intensify |website=NCAR & UCAR News |publisher=University Corporation for Atmospheric Research |access-date=6 November 2023 |date=26 October 2023}}</ref>
-==References==
+== Improving predictability and forecasting ==
+[[File:Intensity error, OWID.svg|thumb|left|Rapid intensification forecasting has been recognized by [[Regional Specialized Meteorological Center]]s as a key area for improvement.|alt=Graph of trends in intensity errors]]
+Rapid intensification is a significant source of error in [[tropical cyclone forecasting]], and the timing of rapid intensification episodes has low predictability.<ref name="Hendricks et al. 2019" /><ref name="Wang and Wu 2004">{{cite journal |last1=Wang |first1=Y. |last2=Wu |first2=C.-C. |title=Current understanding of tropical cyclone structure and intensity changes ? a review |journal=Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics |date=December 2004 |volume=87 |issue=4 |pages=257–278 |doi=10.1007/s00703-003-0055-6}}</ref> Rapid intensity changes near land can greatly influence [[tropical cyclone preparedness]] and public [[risk perception]].<ref name="Leroux et al. 2018" /> Increasing the predictability of rapid intensity changes has been identified as a top priority by operational forecasting centers.<ref name="Wang et al. 2023" /> In 2012, the NHC listed prediction of rapid intensification as their highest priority item for improvement.<ref name="Carrasco and Landsea 2014">{{cite journal |last1=Carrasco |first1=Cristina Alexandra |last2=Landsea |first2=Christopher William |last3=Lin |first3=Yuh-Lang |title=The Influence of Tropical Cyclone Size on Its Intensification |journal=Weather and Forecasting |date=June 2014 |volume=29 |issue=3 |pages=582–590 |doi=10.1175/WAF-D-13-00092.1}}</ref> Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) was a field experiment led by [[NASA Earth Science]] to in part study rapid intensification. Multiple aircraft including the uncrewed [[Northrop Grumman RQ-4 Global Hawk]] were used to probe the rapid intensification events of hurricanes [[Hurricane Earl (2010)|Earl]] and [[Hurricane Karl (2010)|Karl]] during the [[2010 Atlantic hurricane season]].<ref name="Braun et al. 2013">{{cite journal |last1=Braun |first1=Scott A. |last2=Kakar |first2=Ramesh |last3=Zipser |first3=Edward |last4=Heymsfield |first4=Gerald |last5=Albers |first5=Cerese |last6=Brown |first6=Shannon |last7=Durden |first7=Stephen L. |last8=Guimond |first8=Stephen |last9=Halverson |first9=Jeffery |last10=Heymsfield |first10=Andrew |last11=Ismail |first11=Syed |last12=Lambrigtsen |first12=Bjorn |last13=Miller |first13=Timothy |last14=Tanelli |first14=Simone |last15=Thomas |first15=Janel |last16=Zawislak |first16=Jon |title=NASA's Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) Field Experiment |journal=Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society |date=March 2013 |volume=94 |issue=3 |pages=345–363 |doi=10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00232.1}}</ref><ref name="GRIP">{{cite web |title=Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) |url=https://ghrc.nsstc.nasa.gov/home/field-campaigns/grip |website=GHRC |publisher=NASA |access-date=5 November 2023}}</ref> In December 2016, the [[CYGNSS]] [[Small satellite|SmallSat]] constellation was launched with a goal of measure ocean surface wind speeds with sufficiently high [[satellite revisit period|temporal resolution]] to resolve rapid intensification events.<ref name="CYGNSSFactSheet">{{cite web |title=Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) |url=http://cygnss.engin.umich.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/534/2021/06/CYGNSS_FactSheet_171020.pdf |publisher=University of Michigan |access-date=6 November 2023 |location=Ann Arbor, Michigan |format=PDF}}</ref><ref name="HappyBirthdayCYGNSS">{{cite web |last1=Ruf |first1=Chris |title=Five Years and Counting – Happy Birthday to the CYGNSS Octuplets! |url=https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/blogs/fromthefield/2021/12/15/five-years-and-counting-happy-birthday-to-the-cygnss-octuplets/ |website=Notes from the Field |publisher=NASA Earth Observatory |access-date=6 November 2023 |date=15 December 2021}}</ref><ref name="Leroux et al. 2018">{{cite journal |last1=Leroux |first1=Marie-Dominique |last2=Wood |first2=Kimberly |last3=Elsberry |first3=Russell L. |last4=Cayanan |first4=Esperanza O. |last5=Hendricks |first5=Eric |last6=Kucas |first6=Matthew |last7=Otto |first7=Peter |last8=Rogers |first8=Robert |last9=Sampson |first9=Buck |last10=Yu |first10=Zifeng |title=Recent Advances in Research and Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Track, Intensity, and Structure at Landfall |journal=Tropical Cyclone Research and Review |date=May 2018 |volume=7 |issue=2 |pages=85–105 |doi=10.6057/2018TCRR02.02}}</ref> The [[TROPICS (spacecraft constellation)|TROPICS]] satellite constellation includes studying rapid changes in tropical cyclones as one of its core science objectives.<ref name="Blackwell et al. 2018">{{cite journal |last1=Blackwell |first1=W. J. |last2=Braun |first2=S. |last3=Bennartz |first3=R. |last4=Velden |first4=C. |last5=DeMaria |first5=M. |last6=Atlas |first6=R. |last7=Dunion |first7=J. |last8=Marks |first8=F. |last9=Rogers |first9=R. |last10=Annane |first10=B. |last11=Leslie |first11=R. V. |title=An overview of the TROPICS NASA Earth Venture Mission |journal=Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |date=November 2018 |volume=144 |issue=S1 |pages=16–26 |doi=10.1002/qj.3290 |pmid=30774158 |pmc=6360932}}</ref> Weather models have also shown an improved ability to project rapid intensification events,<ref name="Cangialosi et al. 2020">{{cite journal |last1=Cangialosi |first1=John P. |last2=Blake |first2=Eric |last3=DeMaria |first3=Mark |last4=Penny |first4=Andrew |last5=Latto |first5=Andrew |last6=Rappaport |first6=Edward |last7=Tallapragada |first7=Vijay |title=Recent Progress in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting at the National Hurricane Center |journal=Weather and Forecasting |date=1 October 2020 |volume=35 |issue=5 |pages=1913–1922 |doi=10.1175/WAF-D-20-0059.1}}</ref> but continue to face difficulties in accurately depicting their timing and magnitude.<ref name="Zhang et al. 2023">{{cite journal |last1=Zhang |first1=Zhan |last2=Wang |first2=Weiguo |last3=Doyle |first3=James D. |last4=Moskaitis |first4=Jonathan |last5=Komaromi |first5=William A. |last6=Heming |first6=Julian |last7=Magnusson |first7=Linus |last8=Cangialosi |first8=John P. |last9=Cowan |first9=Levi |last10=Brennan |first10=Michael |last11=Ma |first11=Suhong |last12=Das |first12=Ananda Kumar |last13=Takuya |first13=Hosomi |last14=Clegg |first14=Peter |last15=Birchard |first15=Thomas |last16=Knaff |first16=John A. |last17=Kaplan |first17=John |last18=Mohapatra |first18=Mrutyunjay |last19=Sharma |first19=Monica |last20=Masaaki |first20=Ikegami |last21=Wu |first21=Liguang |last22=Blake |first22=Eric |title=A review of recent advances (2018–2021) on tropical cyclone intensity change from operational perspectives, part 1: Dynamical model guidance |journal=Tropical Cyclone Research and Review |date=March 2023 |volume=12 |issue=1 |pages=30–49 |doi=10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.05.004}}</ref> Statistical models show greater [[forecast skill]] in anticipating rapid intensification compared to [[numerical weather prediction|dynamical weather models]].<ref name="Blackwell et al. 2018" /><ref name="Kaplan et al. 2015">{{cite journal |last1=Kaplan |first1=John |last2=Rozoff |first2=Christopher M. |last3=DeMaria |first3=Mark |last4=Sampson |first4=Charles R. |last5=Kossin |first5=James P. |last6=Velden |first6=Christopher S. |last7=Cione |first7=Joseph J. |last8=Dunion |first8=Jason P. |last9=Knaff |first9=John A. |last10=Zhang |first10=Jun A. |last11=Dostalek |first11=John F. |last12=Hawkins |first12=Jeffrey D. |last13=Lee |first13=Thomas F. |last14=Solbrig |first14=Jeremy E. |title=Evaluating Environmental Impacts on Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Predictability Utilizing Statistical Models |journal=Weather and Forecasting |date=October 2015 |volume=30 |issue=5 |pages=1374–1396 |doi=10.1175/WAF-D-15-0032.1}}</ref> Intensity predictions derived from [[artificial neural network]]s may also provide more accurate predictions of rapid intensification than established methods.<ref name="Wang et al. 2023" />
+[[File:Marcus 2018-03-21 0600Z.jpg|thumb|[[Cyclone Marcus]] was an instance in which operational intensity forecasts successfully predicted rapid intensification with the aid of RI forecast aids.<ref name="Courtney et al. 2019b" />|alt=Satellite image of a tropical cyclone]]
+Because forecast errors at 24-hour leadtimes are greater for rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones than other cases, operational forecasts do not typically depict rapid intensification.<ref name="Courtney et al. 2019b">{{cite journal |last1=Courtney |first1=Joseph B. |last2=Langlade |first2=Sébastien |last3=Barlow |first3=Stephen |last4=Birchard |first4=Thomas |last5=Knaff |first5=John A. |last6=Kotal |first6=S.D. |last7=Kriat |first7=Tarik |last8=Lee |first8=Woojeong |last9=Pasch |first9=Richard |last10=Sampson |first10=Charles R. |last11=Shimada |first11=Udai |last12=Singh |first12=Amit |title=Operational perspectives on tropical cyclone intensity change Part 2: forecasts by operational agencies |journal=Tropical Cyclone Research and Review |date=December 2019 |volume=8 |issue=4 |pages=226–239 |doi=10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.01.003}}</ref> Probabilistic and deterministic forecasting tools have been developed to increase forecast confidence and aid forecasters in anticipating rapid intensification episodes. These aids have been integrated into the operational forecasting procedures of [[Regional Specialized Meteorological Center]]s (RSMCs) and are factored into tropical cyclone intensity forecasts worldwide.<ref name="Wang et al. 2023" /> For example, the Rapid Intensification Index (RII){{snd}}a quantification of the likelihood of rapid intensification for varying degrees of wind increases based on forecasts of environmental parameters<ref name="Kaplan et al. 2010">{{cite journal |last1=Kaplan |first1=John |last2=DeMaria |first2=Mark |last3=Knaff |first3=John A. |title=A Revised Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Index for the Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific Basins |journal=Weather and Forecasting |date=February 2010 |volume=25 |issue=1 |pages=220–241 |doi=10.1175/2009WAF2222280.1}}</ref>{{snd}}is utilized by [[Japan Meteorological Agency|RMSC Tokyo–Typhoon Center]], the Australian [[Bureau of Meteorology]] (BOM), and the NHC.<ref name="Wang et al. 2023" /> An intensity prediction product is being developed at [[Météo-France#Worldwide|RSMC La Réunion]] for the South-West Indian Ocean based on tools developed in other tropical cyclone basins.<ref name="Leroux et al. 2018" /> The Rapid Intensity Prediction Aid (RIPA) increases the consensus intensity forecast provided by the JTWC's principal tropical cyclone intensity forecasting aid if at least a 40% chance of rapid intensification is assessed and has been used since 2018.<ref name="Wang et al. 2023" /> The JTWC reported that a large increasing trend in the probability of rapid intensification assessed using RIPA was associated with higher likelihoods of rapid intensification. The JTWC is also experimenting with additional rapid intensification forecasting aids relying on a variety of statistical methods.<ref name="Wang et al. 2023">{{cite journal |last1=Wang |first1=Weiguo |last2=Zhang |first2=Zhan |last3=Cangialosi |first3=John P. |last4=Brennan |first4=Michael |last5=Cowan |first5=Levi |last6=Clegg |first6=Peter |last7=Takuya |first7=Hosomi |last8=Masaaki |first8=Ikegami |last9=Das |first9=Ananda Kumar |last10=Mohapatra |first10=Mrutyunjay |last11=Sharma |first11=Monica |last12=Knaff |first12=John A. |last13=Kaplan |first13=John |last14=Birchard |first14=Thomas |last15=Doyle |first15=James D. |last16=Heming |first16=Julian |last17=Moskaitis |first17=Jonathan |last18=Komaromi |first18=William A. |last19=Ma |first19=Suhong |last20=Sampson |first20=Charles |last21=Wu |first21=Liguang |last22=Blake |first22=Eric |title=A review of recent advances (2018–2021) on tropical cyclone intensity change from operational perspectives, part 2: Forecasts by operational centers |journal=Tropical Cyclone Research and Review |date=March 2023 |volume=12 |issue=1 |pages=50–63 |doi=10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.05.003}}</ref> Intensity forecasting tools incorporating predictors for rapid intensification are also being developed and used in operations at other forecasting agencies such as the [[Korea Meteorological Administration]] and the [[Indian Meteorological Department]].<ref name="Courtney et al. 2019">{{cite journal |last1=Courtney |first1=Joseph B. |last2=Langlade |first2=Sébastien |last3=Sampson |first3=Charles R. |last4=Knaff |first4=John A. |last5=Birchard |first5=Thomas |last6=Barlow |first6=Stephen |last7=Kotal |first7=S.D. |last8=Kriat |first8=Tarik |last9=Lee |first9=Woojeong |last10=Pasch |first10=Richard |last11=Shimada |first11=Udai |title=Operational Perspectives on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change Part 1: recent advances in intensity guidance |journal=Tropical Cyclone Research and Review |date=September 2019 |volume=8 |issue=3 |pages=123–133 |doi=10.1016/j.tcrr.2019.10.002}}</ref>
+== Trends==
+{{see also|Tropical cyclones and climate change}}
+The [[IPCC Sixth Assessment Report#The Physical Science Basis (Working Group 1 report)|first working group report]] of the [[IPCC Sixth Assessment Report]]{{snd}}published in 2021{{snd}}assessed that the global occurrence of rapid intensification likely increased over the preceding four decades (during the period of reliable satellite data), with "medium confidence" in this change exceeding the effect of [[natural climate variability]] and thus stemming from [[anthropogenic climate change]].<ref name="Seneviratne et al. 2021">{{cite book|last1=Seneviratne |first1=Sonia I. |last2=Zhang |first2=Xuebin |last3=Adnan |first3=Muhammad |last4=Badi |first4=Wafae |last5=Dereczynski |first5=Claudine |last6=Di Luca |first6=Alejandro |last7=Ghosh |first7=Subimal |last8=Iskandar |first8=Iskhaq |last9=Kossin |first9=James |last10=Lewis |first10=Sophie |last11=Otto |first11=Friederike |last12=Pinto |first12=Izidine |last13=Satoh |first13=Masaki |last14=Vicente-Serrano |first14=Sergio M. |last15=Wehner |first15=Masaki |last16=Zhou |first16=Botao |editor1-last=Masson-Delmotte |editor1-first=Valérie |editor2-last=Zhai |editor2-first=Panmao |editor3-last=Pirani |editor3-first=Anna |editor4-last=Connors |editor4-first=Sarah L. |editor5-last=Péan |editor5-first=Clotilde |editor6-last=Berger |editor6-first=Sophie |editor7-last=Caud |editor7-first=Nada |editor8-last=Chen |editor8-first=Yang |editor9-last=Goldfarb |editor9-first=Leah |editor10-last=Gomis |editor10-first=Melissa I. |editor11-last=Huang |editor11-first=Mengtian |editor12-last=Leitzell |editor12-first=Katherine |editor13-last=Lonnoy |editor13-first=Elisabeth |editor14-last=Matthews |editor14-first=J.B. Robin |editor15-last=Maycock |editor15-first=Thomas K. |editor16-last=Waterfield |editor16-first=Tim |editor17-last=Yelekçi |editor17-first=Ozge |editor18-last=Yu |editor18-first=Rong |editor19-last=Zhou |editor19-first=Baiquan |title=Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |chapter=Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate |date=2021 |doi=10.1017/9781009157896.013 |publisher=Cambridge University Press |location=Cambridge, United Kingdom}}</ref>{{rp|pp=1519,1585}} The likelihood of a tropical cyclone with [[hurricane-force]] winds undergoing rapid intensification has increased from 1&nbsp;percent in the 1980s to 5&nbsp;percent.<ref name="NightmareForecasters">{{cite news |last1=Shao |first1=Elena |title=A ‘Nightmare’ for Forecasters: Here’s Why Hurricanes Are Getting Stronger, Faster |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/26/climate/hurricane-ian-rapid-intensification.html |access-date=6 November 2023 |work=The New York Times |date=6 January 2023|orig-date=26 September 2022}}</ref> [[statistical significance|Statistically significant]] increases in the frequency of tropical cyclones undergoing multiple episodes of rapid intensification have also been observed since the 1980s.<ref name="Manikanta et al. 2023">{{cite journal |last1=Manikanta |first1=N. D. |last2=Joseph |first2=Sudheer |last3=Naidu |first3=C. V. |title=Recent global increase in multiple rapid intensification of tropical cyclones |journal=Scientific Reports |date=September 2023 |volume=13 |issue=1 |doi=10.1038/s41598-023-43290-9}}</ref> These increases have been observed across the various [[tropical cyclone basin]]s and may be associated with the thermodynamic properties of environments becoming increasingly conducive to intensification as a result of anthropogenic emissions.<ref name="Bhatia et al. 2022" /> Reductions of wind shear due to climate change may also increase the probability of rapid intensification.<ref name="Ting et al. 2019">{{cite journal |last1=Ting |first1=Mingfang |last2=Kossin |first2=James P. |last3=Camargo |first3=Suzana J. |last4=Li |first4=Cuihua |title=Past and Future Hurricane Intensity Change along the U.S. East Coast |journal=Scientific Reports |date=May 2019 |volume=9 |issue=1 |doi=10.1038/s41598-019-44252-w |pmid=31127128}}</ref><ref name="NightmareForecasters" /> The frequency of rapid intensification within {{cvt|400|km}} of coastlines has also tripled between 1980 and 2020. This trend may be caused by a warming of coastal waters and a westward trend in the locations of peak tropical cyclone intensities stemming from broader changes to [[Tropical cyclone#Environmental steering|environmental steering flows]].<ref name="Li et al. 2023">{{cite journal |last1=Li |first1=Yi |last2=Tang |first2=Youmin |last3=Wang |first3=Shuai |last4=Toumi |first4=Ralf |last5=Song |first5=Xiangzhou |last6=Wang |first6=Qiang |title=Recent increases in tropical cyclone rapid intensification events in global offshore regions |journal=Nature Communications |date=August 2023 |volume=14 |issue=1 |doi=10.1038/s41467-023-40605-2}}</ref> A long-term increase in the magnitude of rapid intensification has also been observed over the Central and Tropical Atlantic as well as the western North Pacific.<ref name="Balaguru et al. 2018">{{cite journal |last1=Balaguru |first1=Karthik |last2=Foltz |first2=Gregory R. |last3=Leung |first3=L. Ruby |title=Increasing Magnitude of Hurricane Rapid Intensification in the Central and Eastern Tropical Atlantic |journal=Geophysical Research Letters |date=May 2018 |volume=45 |issue=9 |pages=4238–4247 |doi=10.1029/2018GL077597}}</ref><ref name="Song et al. 2020">{{cite journal |last1=Song |first1=Jinjie |last2=Duan |first2=Yihong |last3=Klotzbach |first3=Philip J |title=Increasing trend in rapid intensification magnitude of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific |journal=Environmental Research Letters |date=August 2020 |volume=15 |issue=8 |pages=084043 |doi=10.1088/1748-9326/ab9140}}</ref> However, [[CMIP5]] climate projections suggest that environmental conditions in by the end of the 21st century may be less favorable for rapid intensification in all tropical cyclone basins outside of the North Indian Ocean.<ref name="Walsh et al. 2016">{{cite journal |last1=Walsh |first1=Kevin J.E. |last2=McBride |first2=John L. |last3=Klotzbach |first3=Philip J. |last4=Balachandran |first4=Sethurathinam |last5=Camargo |first5=Suzana J. |last6=Holland |first6=Greg |last7=Knutson |first7=Thomas R. |last8=Kossin |first8=James P. |last9=Lee |first9=Tsz‐cheung |last10=Sobel |first10=Adam |last11=Sugi |first11=Masato |title=Tropical cyclones and climate change |journal=WIREs Climate Change |date=January 2016 |volume=7 |issue=1 |pages=65–89 |doi=10.1002/wcc.371}}</ref>
+== See also ==
+{{Portal|Tropical cyclone}}
+* [[List of the most intense tropical cyclones]]
+* [[List of tropical cyclone records]]
+* [[Annular tropical cyclone]]
+== Notes ==
+{{Notelist}}
+== References ==
 {{Reflist}}
 {{Cyclones}}
-{{DEFAULTSORT:Rapid Deepening}}
+{{DEFAULTSORT:Rapid deepening}}
 [[Category:Tropical cyclone meteorology]]
 [[Category:Weather hazards]]