Climate security

Map of the Earth with a six-meter sea level rise represented in red (uniform distribution, actual sea level rise will vary regionally). Hotspots of SLR can divert 3-4 times in the rate of rise, compared to the global average, such as projected for parts of the U.S. East Coast.

Climate-related security risks have far-reaching implications for the way the world manages peace and security. Climate security is a concept that summons the idea that climate-related change amplifies existing risks in society that dangers the security of humans, ecosystems, economy, infrastructure and societies. Also climate actions to adapt and mitigate impacts can have a negative effect on human security if mishandled.

General

See also: Effects of global warming on humans and Environmental security

The Global Risks Report 2019 by the World Economic Forum, cited climate change among the most concerning issues. As part of the report a survey cited extreme weather, lack of climate action and natural disasters as the main three problems. The 2017 Global Catastrophic Risks report, issued by the Global Challenges Foundation, highlighted a broad range of security-related topics, among them climate change, and concluded that global warming has a high likelihood to end civilization.

USDA, projected changes in food prices, depending on emissions scenarios, also factoring trade

A 2015 report published by the White House found that climate change puts coastal areas at risk, that a changing Arctic poses risks to other parts of the country, risk for infrastructure, and increases demands on military resources. The NATO stated in 2015 that climate change is significant security threat and ‘Its Bite Is Already Being Felt’.

In 2016, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper noted:

Unpredictable instability has become the “new normal,” and this trend will continue for the foreseeable future…Extreme weather, climate change, environmental degradation, rising demand for food and water, poor policy decisions and inadequate infrastructure will magnify this instability.

The Global Security Defense Index on climate change evaluates the extents of governments in considering climate change to be a national security issue.

A 2015 Pentagon report has pointed out how climate denial threatens national security. As part of the United States National Defense Authorization Act the U.S. Congress asked the Department of Defense for a report on climate matters. The report was published in 2019, and notes, "The effects of a changing climate are a national security issue with potential impacts to Department of Defense (DoD or the Department) missions, operational plans, and installations."

The 2018 Worldwide Threat Assessment report states:

The past 115 years have been the warmest period in the history of modern civilization, and the past few years have been the warmest years on record. Extreme weather events in a warmer world have the potential for greater impacts and can compound with other drivers to raise the risk of humanitarian disasters, conflict, water and food shortages, population migration, labor shortfalls, price shocks, and power outages. Research has not identified indicators of tipping points in climate-linked Earth systems, suggesting a possibility of abrupt climate change.

Academia

Scholars analysing conflicts with a climate security rendering have long argued that climate change can adversely affect security and international stability. Recent reports convey the information of collapse of pastoral societies,how terrorist groups seek recruits in dehydrated lands, and how flooding ultimately fed anti-government sentiments. Unstable regions appear to be incapable of surviving climate change-related stresses; instead creating fertile soil for radicalisation, poverty and violent conflict. Scholars of climate security can analyse the chronological order of an escalation, where a changing environment or climate change can be an underlying variable. It is a complex interplay of many political and socio-economical factors where climate change is considered a risk- or threat-multiplier.

During the 70's and 80's the Jason advisory group, concerned with security, conducted research on climate change. Climate change has been identified as a threat multiplier, which can exacerbate existing threats. A 2013 meta-analysis of 60 previous peer-reviewed studies, and 45 data sets concluded that, "climate change intensifies natural resource stresses in a way that can increase the likelihood of livelihood devastation, state fragility, human displacement, and mass death." The 2014 report, by the CNA Military Advisory Board, "National Security and the Accelerating Risks of Climate Change" re-examined the impact of climate change on U.S. national security. The report concluded that climate change is a growing security threat.

In the 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR), The Pentagon stated: "The QDR will set a long-term course for DOD as it assesses the threats and challenges that the nation faces and re-balances DOD’s strategies, capabilities, and forces to address today’s conflicts and tomorrow’s threats." and " "Climate change poses another significant challenge for the United States and the world at large. As greenhouse gas emissions increase, sea levels are rising, average global temperatures are increasing, and severe weather patterns are accelerating. These changes, coupled with other global dynamics, including growing, urbanizing, more affluent populations, and substantial economic growth in India, China, Brazil, and other nations, will devastate homes, land, and infrastructure. Climate change may exacerbate water scarcity and lead to sharp increases in food costs. The pressures caused by climate change will influence resource competition while placing additional burdens on economies, societies, and governance institutions around the world. These effects are threat multipliers that will aggravate stressors abroad such as poverty, environmental degradation, political instability, and social tensions – conditions that can enable terrorist activity and other forms of violence."

Climate change

A report in 2003 by Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall, looked at potential implications from climate-related scenarios for the national security of the United States, and concluded, "We have created a climate change scenario that although not the most likely, is plausible, and would challenge United States national security in ways that should be considered immediately." Among the findings were:

"There is a possibility that this gradual global warming could lead to a relatively abrupt slowing of the ocean's thermohaline conveyor, which could lead to harsher winter weather conditions, sharply reduced soil moisture, and more intense winds in certain regions that currently provide a significant fraction of the world's food production. With inadequate preparation, the result could be a significant drop in the human carrying capacity of the Earth's environment."

Researchers studying ancient climate patterns (paleoclimatology) noted in a 2007 study:

We show that long-term fluctuations of war frequency and population changes followed the cycles of temperature change. Further analyses show that cooling impeded agricultural production, which brought about a series of serious social problems, including price inflation, then successively war outbreak, famine, and population decline.

A 2013 review by the U.S. National Research Council assessed the implications of abrupt climate change, including implications for the physical climate system, natural systems, or human systems. The authors noted, "A key characteristic of these changes is that they can come faster than expected, planned, or budgeted for, forcing more reactive, rather than proactive, modes of behavior."

A 2018 meta study cited cascading tipping elements, which could trigger self-reinforcing feedbacks that progress even when man-made emissions are reduced, and which could eventually establish a new hothouse climate state. The authors noted, "If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies."

Health

See also: Wet-bulb globe temperature and Effects of global warming on human health

Studies identified uptake in mortality due to extreme heat waves. Extreme heat conditions can overcome the human capacity to thermo regulate, future scenarios with rising emissions could expose about 74% of the world population for at least twenty days per year to lethal heat events.

Psychological impacts

Further information: Effects of global warming on human health § Mental health

A 2011 article in the American Psychologist identified three classes of psychological impacts from global climate change:

• Direct - "Acute or traumatic effects of extreme weather events and a changed environment"
• Indirect - "Threats to emotional well-being based on observation of impacts and concern or uncertainty about future risks"
• Psychosocial - "Chronic social and community effects of heat, drought, migrations, and climate-related conflicts, and postdisaster adjustment"

Consequences of psychosocial impacts caused by climate change include: increase in violence, intergroup conflict, displacement and relocation and socioeconomic disparities. Based on research, there is a causal relationship between heat and violence and that any increase in average global temperature is likely to be accompanied by an increase in violent aggression.

Conflicts

Further information: Water conflict

In a 2016 article, published by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the author suggested that conflict over climate related water issues, could lead to nuclear conflict, involving Kashmir, India and Pakistan. Based on reviewing 60 studies on the subject of climate change and conflicts, additional to warmer temperatures, more extreme rainfall could increase interpersonal violence by 4%, and intergroup conflict by 14% (median estimates). The violent herder–farmer conflicts in Nigeria, Mali, Sudan and other countries in the Sahel region have been exacerbated by climate change.

Experts have suggested links to climate change in several major conflicts:

• War in Darfur, where sustained drought encouraged conflict between herders and farmers
• Syrian Civil War, preceded by the displacement of 1.5 million people due to drought-induced crop and livestock failure
• Islamist insurgency in Nigeria, which exploited natural resource shortages to fuel anti-government sentiment
• Somali Civil War, in which droughts and extreme high temperatures have been linked to violence

Adaptation

Setup of a solar shade canopy for humanitarian aid and disaster relief. The solar shade has the potential to provide enough energy for continuous 24-hour use.

Energy

See also: Energy usage of the United States military

At least since 2010, the U.S. military begun to push aggressively to develop, evaluate and deploy renewable energy to decrease its need to transport fossil fuels. Based on the 2015 annual report from NATO, the alliance plans investments in renewables and energy efficiency to reduce risks to soldiers, and cites the impacts from climate change on security as a reason.

In politics

Main article: Politics of global warming

Barack Obama characterized the global agreement, following the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference as a national security issue. During the 2016 United States presidential election, Bernie Sanders made the topic a centerpiece of his campaign. In early of 2017, U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis said that budget cuts would hamper the ability to monitor the impacts of climate change, and noted, “..climate change is a challenge that requires a broader, whole-of government response.”

Discourse

The transnational character of climate-related security risks often goes beyond the capacity of national governments to respond adequately. Many parts of governments or state leaders acknowledge climate change as an issue for national or regional security:

United Nations level

The UN Security Council first debated climate security and energy in 2007 and in 2011 issued a presidential statement expressing concern at the possible adverse security effects of climate change. There has been a series of informal Arria-Formula meetings on issues related to climate change. In July 2018, Sweden initiated a debate on Climate and Security in the United Nations Security Council. The UN supported plan of action to address humanity's greatest challenges as evaluated during the decennial Earth Summits - Agenda 21 and the Global Goals - to address the issue by dedicating a Global Goal to it: "Goal 13: Climate Action".

European Union (EU) level

"The European Council’s conclusions on climate diplomacy.. that Climate change is a decisive global challenge which, if not urgently managed, will put at risk ... peace, stability and security." In 2014, David Cameron noted, "Climate change is one of the most serious threats facing our world", A 2018 article in UK's The Independent argues that the U.S. Trump administration is ‘putting British national security at risk’, according to over 100 climate scientists. The Intelligence on European Pensions and Institutional Investment think-tank published a 2018 report with the key point, "Climate change is an existential risk whose elimination must become a corporate objective".

United States level

Barack Obama stated in 2015, "Climate change is a national security issue". The same year former United States Secretary of Defense, Chuck Hagel mentioned, "Climate Change is a national security problem" In 2017, the Trump administration removed climate change from its national security strategy. In January 2019 The Pentagon released a report stating that climate change is a national security threat to USA. The idea of a presidential committee on climate security has been brought up.

Australia

A 2018 published report by the Australian Senate noted, "climate change as a current and existential national security risk… defined as one that threatens the premature extinction of Earth-originating intelligent life or the permanent and drastic destruction of its potential for desirable future development."

Celebrities

In 2014, Leonardo DiCaprio stated during a United Nations conference, "The time to answer the greatest challenge of our existence on this planet is now. You can make history or be vilified by it." At a 2015 security conference, Arnold Schwarzenegger called climate change the issue of our time.

Commentary

A RAND Corporation blog noted in 2015, "Climate change can affect conflict around the world in uncertain and complex ways, although we can't establish the magnitude of a causal relationship with confidence. In addition, there are unresolved hypotheses about indirect climate-security linkages, such as destabilization." Climate scientist Michael E. Mann stated in his commentary to the 2018 global heat wave that climate change is a national security nightmare.

Documentaries

The 2010 documentary, Carbon Nation explores climate change solutions. The Guardian noted about Carbon Nation, "The take-home message is that what's good for the climate is also good for the economy, for national security, for health, for nature – and for America." The documentary The Burden argues for a switch from fossil fuel reliances to clean energies from a military perspective. Bob Inglis is quoted, "I see incredible opportunity.... We improve our national security. We create jobs and we clean up the air."

See also

• America's Climate Security Act of 2007
• Climate resilience
• Energy security
• Environmental monitoring
• Food security
• Water security

External links

• Global Military Advisory Council On Climate Change
• How Climate Change Became a National Security Problem (Wired, 2015)
• National Security in the Fourth National Climate Assessment (2018)