Opinion polling in the Philippine presidential election, 2010

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Polling for the presidential election, via a 3-period moving average.
Polling for the vice presidential election, via a 3-period moving average.

Opinion polling (popularly known as surveys in the Philippines) for the 2010 Philippine presidential election is managed by two major polling firms: Social Weather Stations and Pulse Asia, and several minor polling firms. The polling firms conducted surveys both prior and after the deadline for filing of certificates of candidacies on December 1, 2009.

Post-filing[edit]

Note: Tables only include confirmed candidates by the COMELEC.

The following are results of surveys taken after the last day of filing of certificates of candidacies by the candidates (December 1).

Presidential election[edit]

Poll source Date(s) conducted Sample
size
Margin of
error
Acosta Aquino De los Reyes Estrada Gordon Madrigal Perlas Teodoro Villanueva Villar Other/
Undecided
2010
SWS[1] May 2–3 2,400 ±2% 0 42 0.3 20 2 0.2 0.1 9 3 19 6
StratPOLLS[2] Apr. 27-May 2 1,500 45.2 0.2 22.2 1.5 0.2 0.6 10.1 3 15.1
The Center[3] Apr. 26–May 2 2,400 ±2.8% 29 18 20 25
Manila Standard Today[4] Apr. 25-27 2,500 ±2% 38 0.1 22 2 0.4 0.2 9 3 20 6
Pulse Asia[5] Apr. 23-25 1,800 ±2% 39 0.2 20 2 0.1 0.3 7 3 20 9
Manila Standard Today[6] Apr. 18-20 2,500 ±2% 38 19 1 9 2 23 6
SWS[7] Apr. 16–19 2,400 ±2% 0 38 0.2 17 2 0.3 0.2 9 2 26 6
SWS[8] Feb 24-28 2,100 ±2.2% * 37 0.2 17 2 0.1 0.1 8 2 29 4
Pulse Asia[9] Mar. 21–28 3,000 ±2% 0.08 37 0.2 18 2 0.1 0.3 7 2 25 9
SWS[10] Mar. 19-22 2,100 ±2.2% 37 0.3 19 3 0.04 0.1 6 2 28 4.56
The Center[3] Mar. 3–10 2,400 ±2.8% 26 0.5 17 9 0 0 14 2 28
SWS[11] Feb. 24-28 2,100 ±2.2% 0.4 36 0.1 15 2 0.1 0.2 6 3 34 4
Pulse Asia[12] Feb. 21–25 1,800 ±2% 0.04 36 0 18 1 0.3 0.2 7 2 29 6
The Center[3] Feb 1-8 1,800 ±2.8% 27 17 8 14 3 27
TNS[13] Jan. 28–Feb. 3 3,000 ±—% 41.54 11.66 1.7 0.22 5.21 2 30.63
Pulse Asia[14] Jan. 22–26 1,800 ±2% 0.2 37 0.3 12 1 0.5 0.05 5 2 35 6
SWS[15] Jan. 21–24 2,100 ±2% 0.3 42 0.2 13 2 0.4 0.04 4 2 35 2
StratPOLLS[16] Jan. 16–22 2,400 ±2.2% 36 0.25 15 5 1 11 4 26
2009
SWS[17] Dec. 27–28 2,100 ±2.2% 44 0.4 15 0.5 0.4 5 1 33 1
Pulse Asia[18] Dec. 8–10 1,800 ±2% 45 19 1 5 1 23 5[p 1]
SWS[19] Dec. 5–10 2,100 ±2.2% 46.2 0.1 16.0 1.1 0.2 0.03 4.6 1.1 27.0 3.7
The Center [20] Dec. 2–6 1,200 ±2.8% 31 0.25 19 5 0.25 10 3 24 7.5

Vice presidential election[edit]

Poll source Date(s) conducted Sample
size
Margin of
error
Binay Chipeco Fernando Legarda Manzano Roxas Sonza Yasay Other Undecided
2010
SWS[21] May 2–3 2,400 ±2% 37.2 0.2 4 12 3 37 0.3 1 6
StratPOLLS[2] Apr. 27–May 2 1,500 37.8 0.2 2.7 13.1 3.5 40.1 0.2 1.2
The Center[22] Apr. 26–May 2 2,400 ±2.8% 25.0 29.0 34.0
Manila Standard Today[23] Apr. 25–27 2,500 ±2% 28 2 20 3 38 9
Pulse Asia[5] Apr. 23–25 1,800 ±2% 28 0.05 3 20 3 37 0.03 1 9
Manila Standard Today[24] Apr. 18–20 2,500 ±2% 22 3 23 2 41 9
SWS[25] Apr. 16–19 2,400 ±2% 25 0.3 3 24 2 39 0.4 1 5
Pulse Asia[9] Mar. 21–28 3,000 ±2% 19 0.1 3 23 2 43 0.5 1 9
SWS[26] Mar. 19–22 2,100 ±2.2% 21 0.4 3 25 3 42 0.3 1 5
SWS[11] Feb. 24–28 2,100 ±2.2% 17 0.4 3 28 2 45 1 0.4 3
Pulse Asia[12] Feb. 21–25 1,800 ±2% 15 0.1 4 27 2 43 1 1 7
Pulse Asia[14] Jan. 22–26 1,800 ±2% 13 0.07 2 28 2 47 0.2 1 7
SWS[15] Jan. 21–24 2,100 ±2% 16 0.2 2 28 2 49 0.3 0.4 2
StratPOLLS[16] Jan. 16–22 2,400 ±2.2% 11 2 7 25 5 47 1 1
2009
SWS[17] Dec. 27–28 2,100 ±2.2% 14.0 0.04 3.0 31.0 2.0 47.0 0.3 0.2 2.4
Pulse Asia[18] Dec. 8–10 1,800 ±2% 14 2 37 2 39 1 4
SWS[19] Dec. 5–10 2,100 ±2.2% 10.2 0.0 1.8 32.0 2.6 43.3 0.3 0.1 9.7
The Center[20] Dec. 2–6 1,200 ±2.8% 16.0 8.0 28.0 3.0 32.0 0.25 0.37

Notes:

  1. ^ 1% picked "others" while 4% picked none/refused/undecided.

Pre-filing[edit]

The following are survey results before the deadline of filing of certificates of candidacy.

Note: Figures assigned with "--" refers that the person either wasn't included among the choices or failed to crack the top positions in the poll.

Pulse Asia[edit]

Pulse Asia: Of the people on this list, whom would you vote for as President of the Philippines if the elections were held today and they were presidential candidates?
Person 2/21-3/8/'08[27] 7/1-14/'08[28] 10/14-27/'08[29] 5/7-5/14 '09[30]
De Castro, Noli 21.5% 22% 18% 18%
Estrada, Joseph -- 16% 17% 15%
Legarda, Loren 17.5% 14% 13% 20%
Escudero, Francis 13% 14% 15% 17%
Roxas, Mar 10.5% 8% 6% 5 %
Lacson, Panfilo 9.9% 5% 7% 4%
Villar, Manny 9.3% 12% 17% 23%
No Answer
Refused to answer
Undecided
6.8% -- -- 5%
Estrada, Jinggoy 3.3% -- -- --
Trillanes, Antonio IV 3% -- -- --
Fernando, Bayani 1.4% 1% 1%
Binay, Jejomar 1.2% 2% 1% 4%
Villanueva, Eddie -- -- 1% 0.3%
Gordon, Richard 0.7% -- -- 11%
Esperon, Hermogenes 0.4% -- -- --
Belmonte, Feliciano 0.3% -- -- --
Teodoro, Gilbert 0.3% -- -- 11%
Puno, Ronaldo -- 0.2% -- 1%
Ermita, Eduardo 0.1% -- -- --
Meloto, Antonio 0.1% -- -- --
Eddie Panlilio -- -- -- 0.2%
Pangilinan, Kiko -- -- -- 1%
Velarde, Mike -- -- -- 0.3%

Notes:

  • Sample: 1,200, with 300 each for Metro Manila, rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.
  • Margin of error: ±3% for national percentages and ±6% for area percentages

Social Weather Stations[edit]

Social Weather Stations: Under the present Constitution, the term of Pres. Arroyo is only up to the year 2010, and there will be an election for President in May 2010. Who in your opinion are the good leaders who should succeed President Arroyo as President?
Person Sep '07[31] Dec '07[31] Mar '08 Jun '08 Nov '08[32] Dec '08[33] Mar '09[34] Jun '09[35] Sep '09[36]
Aquino, Benigno III -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 60%
Cayetano, Alan Peter 1% 3% -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Binay, Jejomar -- -- -- -- -- -- 1% 4% 12%
De Castro, Noli 25% 30% 35% 31% 29% 31% 27% 19% 8%
Estrada, Joseph 5% 9% 14% 11% 13% 11% 13% 25% 18%
Escudero, Francis 13% 15% 19% 14% 16% 19% 23% 20% 15%
Estrada, Jinggoy 1% 2% -- -- 1% -- 1% -- --
Fernando, Bayani 5% 9% 14% 11% 13% 11% 13% -- 1%
Gordon, Richard -- -- -- -- -- -- 1% 4% 9%
Lacson, Panfilo 18% 13% 12% 16% 17% 14% 14% 7% 2%
Legarda, Loren 44% 23% 30% 26% 26% 28% 25% 15% 5%
Pangilinan, Francis 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% -- --
Ramon Revilla -- -- -- -- -- -- 1% -- --
Roxas, Mar 9% 20% 16% 13% 13% 10% 15% 20% 12%
Santiago, Miriam 3% 4% -- -- 1% 1% 4% 13% 17%
Trillanes, Antonio IV 4% 3% -- -- 1% 1% -- -- --
Villar, Manny 18% 27% 17% 25% 28% 27% 26% 33% 37%
Don't know 12% 12% 11% 15% 9% 7% 13% 7% 6%
Not sure/None 6% 5% 5% 8% 9% 12% 7% 18% 4%

Notes:[37][38]

  • Participants were allowed to choose up to three persons, hence the numbers would exceed 100%.
  • Responses below 2% were excluded.
  • Sample: 1,200, with 300 each for Metro Manila, rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.
  • Margin of error: ±3% for national percentages and ±6% for area percentages[39]

Controversy[edit]

With the various surveys showing a two-horse race between Noynoy Aquino and Manny Villar, other candidates had expressed doubts on the accuracy of the surveys. Presidential candidate Richard Gordon filed a temporary restraining order before the Quezon City Regional Trial Court, to stop Pulse Asia and SWS from releasing results of pre-election surveys. Gordon said that the research groups used false methodologies and that the 2 survey companies are "stealing the people's minds" and preventing voters from carefully choosing their preferred candidates, particularly those running for president."[40]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Aquino pads poll lead". 
  2. ^ a b [1]
  3. ^ a b c "Pre-Election Survey". GMANews.tv. People's Journal. 2010-05-07. Retrieved 2010-05-07. 
  4. ^ "Estrada overtakes Villar, negative attacks take toll". 
  5. ^ a b "Erap catches up with Villar in Pulse Asia's latest survey". 
  6. ^ "Villar continues to slip as Estrada nibbles at margin". 
  7. ^ "Noynoy leads by double digits over Villar in new SWS survey". 
  8. ^ "SWS confirms Special March 2010 Survey sponsored by Rep. Ronaldo Zamora". BusinessWorld. 2010-04-20. Retrieved 2013-03-25. 
  9. ^ a b "Pulse Asia's Ulat ng Bayan March 2010 Survey for National Elective Positions". 
  10. ^ "Aquino opens up lead versus Villar". BusinessWorld. 2010-03-29. Retrieved 2010-03-30. 
  11. ^ a b "BusinessWorld-SWS February 24–28, 2010 Pre-Election Survey". Business World. 2010-03-11. Retrieved 2010-03-20. 
  12. ^ a b "Pulse Asia's February 2010 Pre-election Survey for National Elective Positions". 
  13. ^ "Noynoy regains lead over Villar in new survey". 
  14. ^ a b "Pulse Asia's January 2010 Pre-election Survey for National Elective Positions". 
  15. ^ a b "Villar gains ground versus Aquino". Business World. 2010-02-01. Retrieved 2010-02-01. 
  16. ^ a b "Teodoro in double digits but Aquino still leads—poll". INQUIRER.net. 2010-02-02. Retrieved 2010-02-02. 
  17. ^ a b Noynoy still leads, but Villar closing in. 1.10.2010. Philippine Star. retrieved on 01.10.2010.
  18. ^ a b "Pulse Asia's December 2009 Pre-election Survey". 
  19. ^ a b "BusinessWorld-SWS December 5–10, 2009 Pre-Election Survey". 
  20. ^ a b "Noynoy changes tack as ratings start to plunge". 
  21. ^ "Businessworld: Down to the wire VP race as Binay, Roxas share lead". Business World. 2010-05-07. Retrieved 2010-05-07. 
  22. ^ [2]
  23. ^ "Binay pulls away from Legarda, has Roxas in sight". Manila Standard Today. 2010-05-03. Retrieved 2010-05-03. 
  24. ^ ">"Binay statistically tied with Legarda in new poll". Manila Standard Today. 2010-04-26. Retrieved 2010-04-26. 
  25. ^ ">"QTV: Noynoy has double-digit lead in new SWS survey". GMA News. 2010-04-26. Retrieved 2010-04-26. 
  26. ^ "Roxas maintains lead in VP race". BusinessWorld. 2010-03-29. Retrieved 2010-03-30. 
  27. ^ De Castro is top bet for 2010 polls, Inquirer.net
  28. ^ abs-cbnnews.com, Erap back in public mind for 2010 polls
  29. ^ "Pulse Asia: No clear ’10 choice". Malaya. Retrieved 2009-01-06. 
  30. ^ http://www.pulseasia.com.ph/resources/photos/table1_2010El_0905.gif
  31. ^ a b Social Weather Stations
  32. ^ abs-cbnnews.com, VP de Castro still top presidentiable -- SWS survey
  33. ^ Survey: De Castro top choice for 2010, Philippine Daily Inquirer, 01/13/2009.
  34. ^ Noli, Villar, Loren, Chiz top SWS survey on Arroyo successor, GMANews.tv
  35. ^ "Second Quarter 2009 Social Weather Survey: Villar tops the "best leaders to succeed PGMA in 2010"; Estrada, Escudero, and Roxas gain while de Castro drops". Social Weather Stations. 2009-07-22. 
  36. ^ "Third Quarter 2009 Social Weather Survey: Noynoy Aquino and Manny Villar top the people's "three best leaders to succeed PGMA in 2010"". Social Weather Stations. 2009-10-14. 
  37. ^ SWS: De Castro, 3 others are top 2010 bets, ABS-CBNNews.com
  38. ^ sws.org.ph, Second Quarter 2008 Social Weather Survey: Noli De Castro, Loren Legarda, and Manny Villar are the people's top recommendees for 2010
  39. ^ www.sws.org, Table 1
  40. ^ "Gordon sues SWS, Pulse Asia over surveys". ABS-CBNnews.com. 2010-04-22. Retrieved 2010-04-22.