Probability (Law & Order: Criminal Intent)

"Probability"
Law & Order: Criminal Intent episode
Episode no.	Season 2 Episode 14 (#36 overall)
Directed by	Frank Prinzi
Written by	Dick Wolf René Balcer (developer and story) Gerry Conway (story and teleplay)
Production code	E3218
Original air date	February 16, 2003
Guest stars
Mark Linn-Baker Matthew Arkin Ken Cheeseman Isabel Glasser Lance Reddick Olga Sosnovska Nathan Corddry
Episode chronology
← Previous "See Me" Next → "Monster"

Probability is a second season episode of the television series Law & Order: Criminal Intent.

Plot summary

In this episode, Detectives Goren and Eames are called in to investigate the mysterious murder of a homeless man.

During the investigation, the team discover the seemingly random murders of several homeless people, using the same pattern, tracing them to an expensive hotel and uncovering a fraud involving a crooked insurance agent and foreign executives. It is clear that when the poor men turn up murdered, the suspects collect on lucrative life-insurance policies.

Goren calls in an extremely peculiar industry fraud expert, who diligently helps him profile the culprits. But when the chief suspect is found dead in his apartment, with no sign of the money he stole, the detectives must call on all their experience to find out who really is pulling the strings.

Cast

Vincent D'Onofrio	Det. Robert Goren
Kathryn Erbe	Det. Alexandra Eames
Jamey Sheridan	Capt. James Deakins
Courtney B. Vance	A.D.A. Ron Carver
Leslie Hendrix	Dr. Elizabeth Rodgers

Facts

• "Probability" is a reference to the actuarial theme of the episode. The mastermind of the plot to kill homeless persons would select manner and location of death, as well as other details about them, in a seemingly random pattern to prevent detection by actuarial algorithms or law enforcement. However, Goren is quick to notice that the "pattern" is too random, and when he investigates further he discovers that the mastermind, who has Asperger syndrome, is obsessed with groupings of 5 in a specific configuration. Goren finds a hidden pattern in the order in time and location of the murders, thus solving the case.
• Wally Stevens, the name of the insurance-fraud investigator character, is an inside joke: The name is taken from Wallace Stevens, the Pulitzer Prize-winning poet who also worked as vice president of The Hartford Accident and Indemnity Company.

Cultural references

• Alexandra Eames's comment "I didn't know you had an older geekier brother" to Robert Goren is a reference to the Academy-Award winning 1988 film Rain Man starring Tom Cruise and Dustin Hoffman. The characters Charlie Babbitt (Cruise) and Susanna (Valeria Golino) discover he has a long-lost older brother (Hoffman) with Asperger's Syndrome.

See also

• Architectural pattern

External links

• IMDb entry
• Official Website
• FINDING OUT: Adults and Autism; An Answer, but Not a Cure, for a Social Disorder hosted by New York Times