Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008

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This article provides a collection of state-wide public opinion polls that were conducted relating to the United States presidential election, 2008.

Opinion polling[edit]

AlabamaAlabama[edit]

9 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

AlaskaAlaska[edit]

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

ArizonaArizona[edit]

10 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

ArkansasArkansas[edit]

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

CaliforniaCalifornia[edit]

55 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

ColoradoColorado[edit]

9 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

ConnecticutConnecticut[edit]

7 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

DelawareDelaware[edit]

3 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

Washington, D.C.District of Columbia[edit]

3 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

FloridaFlorida[edit]

27 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

Georgia (U.S. state)Georgia[edit]

15 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

HawaiiHawaii[edit]

4 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

IdahoIdaho[edit]

4 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

IllinoisIllinois[edit]

21 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

IndianaIndiana[edit]

11 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

IowaIowa[edit]

7 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000)
(Republican in 2004)

KansasKansas[edit]

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

KentuckyKentucky[edit]

8 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

LouisianaLouisiana[edit]

9 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

MaineMaine[edit]

4 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

MarylandMaryland[edit]

10 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

MassachusettsMassachusetts[edit]

12 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

MichiganMichigan[edit]

17 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

MinnesotaMinnesota[edit]

10 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

MississippiMississippi[edit]

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

MissouriMissouri[edit]

for earlier results

11 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

MontanaMontana[edit]

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

‡ Ron Paul replaced Chuck Baldwin on the ballot in Montana.

NebraskaNebraska[edit]

5 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

NevadaNevada[edit]

5 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

New HampshireNew Hampshire[edit]

4 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000)
(Democrat in 2004)

New JerseyNew Jersey[edit]

15 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

New MexicoNew Mexico[edit]

5 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000)
(Republican in 2004)

New YorkNew York[edit]

31 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

North CarolinaNorth Carolina[edit]

15 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

North DakotaNorth Dakota[edit]

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

OhioOhio[edit]

20 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

OklahomaOklahoma[edit]

7 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

OregonOregon[edit]

7 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

PennsylvaniaPennsylvania[edit]

21 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

Rhode IslandRhode Island[edit]

4 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

South CarolinaSouth Carolina[edit]

8 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

South DakotaSouth Dakota[edit]

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

TennesseeTennessee[edit]

11 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

TexasTexas[edit]

34 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

UtahUtah[edit]

5 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

VermontVermont[edit]

Winner: Barack Obama
3 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

VirginiaVirginia[edit]

13 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

Washington (state)Washington[edit]

11 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

West VirginiaWest Virginia[edit]

5 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

WisconsinWisconsin[edit]

10 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

WyomingWyoming[edit]

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  • * a scientific poll conducted via the Internet (not used in calculating results below).
  • ** a poll commissioned by an organization affiliated with a specific candidate (not used in calculating results below).

Latest results (using latest polling when available)[edit]

This results section uses only the latest polls for each state. It is for indicative purposes only, and is highly susceptible to polling errors. The numbers in parentheses indicate the number of electoral votes awarded to each state. A total of 538 electoral votes are distributed among the states and DC. Margins of 10% or more are considered "safe"; margins of 5% to 9.9% are considered "likely" and margins of 0.1% to 4.9% are considered "leaning". Margins of multiple polls concluded the same day are averaged out. Because the list is revised after newer polls are released, it is highly volatile and should only be taken as examples.

Maps of recent polling data[edit]

Map and totals updated at 11-3-08 11:10AM EST. Maps are based on a weighted average for the previous 10 polling results, and as such may be slow to show changes in countrywide opinion – click on the image to view its history. The second map is altered to convey the proportional amount of electoral votes of each state. The number of electoral votes of a given state is based on its population. Candidates must win at least 270 electoral votes to win the election, and the House of Representatives votes in the event no one qualifies.

McCainObamaMatchupTWINtop.svg McCainObamaMatchupTWIN.png

Safe Obama – over 10% (243) Likely Obama – over 5% (291) (48) Leans Obama – over 1% (338) (47) Tossup – within 1% (29) Leans McCain – over 1% (171) (39) Likely McCain – over 5% (132) (14) Safe McCain – over 10% (118)
District of Columbia (3) – 69.0%

Hawaii (4) – 38.3%
New York (31) – 29.0%
Vermont (3) – 27.4%
Delaware (3) – 23.8%
Illinois (21) – 22.8%
California (55) – 22.7%
Massachusetts (12) – 20.3%
Connecticut (7) – 20.1%
Maryland (10) – 18.2%
Rhode Island (4) – 17.0%
New Jersey (15) – 16.5%
Oregon (7) – 15.4%
Washington (11) – 14.6%
Maine (4) – 14.0%
Michigan (17) – 13.8%
Iowa (7) – 13.0%
New Hampshire (4) – 12.9%
Minnesota (10) – 11.9%
Wisconsin (10) – 11.3%
New Mexico (5) – 10.1%

Pennsylvania (21) – 7.4%

Colorado (9) – 7.2%
Nevada (5) – 6.1%
Virginia (13) – 5.6%

Ohio (20) – 4.6%

Florida (27) – 3.1%

North Carolina (15) – 0.9% Obama

Missouri (11) – 0.1% McCain
North Dakota (3) – 0.5% McCain

Arizona (10) – 4.7%

Georgia (15) – 4.1%
Montana (3) – 2.5%
Indiana (11) – 1.3%

Arkansas (6) – 9.7%

South Dakota (3) – 9.0%
West Virginia (5) – 7.9%

Oklahoma (7) – 29.3%

Utah (5) – 26.2%
Idaho (4) – 25.2%
Wyoming (3) – 23.6%
Alabama (9) – 23.4%
Nebraska (5) – 20.7%
Kansas (6) – 16.8%
Alaska (3) – 16.7%
Tennessee (11) – 15.2%
Kentucky (8) – 13.7%
Texas (34) – 11.9%
South Carolina (8) – 11.5%
Mississippi (6) – 11.0%
Louisiana (9)- 10.2%

Totals

  • Obama leads: 338 electoral votes
  • McCain leads: 171 electoral votes


Election Day projection[edit]

Current 2008 US Electoral College Polling Map.PNG

FINAL UPDATE: 22:32, 4 November 2008 (UTC)

  • Data derived from Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com weighted averages and statistical polling analysis, which determines what the best guess as to what will happen on Election Day is rather than what would happen if the election were held today. (Methodology)
  • Each state is colored according to which candidate is currently projected to win, and both the state's total electoral votes and the winning candidate's projected margin of victory are listed.

References[edit]

External links[edit]