2010 United States Senate special election in Delaware: Difference between revisions
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== Background == |
== Background == |
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In the seat's most recent [[United States Senate election in Delaware, 2008|election in 2008]], longtime [[Democratic Party (United States)|Democratic]] incumbent [[Joe Biden]] |
In the seat's most recent [[United States Senate election in Delaware, 2008|election in 2008]], longtime [[Democratic Party (United States)|Democratic]] incumbent [[Joe Biden]] defeated [[Republican Party (United States)|Republican]] [[Christine O'Donnell]].<ref name="ap110408">{{cite news | url=http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5ikXdkhGpxM9rLnLYzrmagNZhJMIAD948G8SO2 | title=Biden wins 7th Senate term but may not serve | author=Nuckols, Ben | agency=Associated Press | date=2008-11-04 | accessdate=2008-11-04}}</ref> However, Biden was also elected [[Vice President of the United States]] in 2008 and was required to resign from the Senate by Article I, Section 6 of the [[United States Constitution]] in order to assume the Vice Presidency. Although Biden was sworn in for a seventh term early in January 2009, he resigned from the Senate on January 15, 2009, and was succeeded by Kaufman the following day. |
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==Appointment== |
==Appointment== |
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Revision as of 07:12, 10 September 2010
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| Elections in Delaware |
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Template:FixBunching The 2010 United States Senate special election in Delaware will take place on November 2, 2010 concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. It will be a special election to fill Delaware's Class II Senate seat, currently held by Ted Kaufman.
The state primary election is September 14, 2010.[1] The winner of the special election will take office immediately after the results have been certified and complete the term scheduled to end in January 2015. The seat will next be up for election to a full six-year term in 2014. Mike Castle is widely seen as the front-runner for the Republican nomination and leads in aggregate polling against potential Democratic opponents, although he is not guaranteed to win the Republican primary.[2]. Attorney General Beau Biden has announced that he will not seek the open Senate seat in 2010.
Background
In the seat's most recent election in 2008, longtime Democratic incumbent Joe Biden defeated Republican Christine O'Donnell.[3] However, Biden was also elected Vice President of the United States in 2008 and was required to resign from the Senate by Article I, Section 6 of the United States Constitution in order to assume the Vice Presidency. Although Biden was sworn in for a seventh term early in January 2009, he resigned from the Senate on January 15, 2009, and was succeeded by Kaufman the following day.
Appointment
Those discussed as possible appointees to replace Joe Biden included Joe Biden's son, Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden, outgoing Lt. Gov. John C. Carney, Jr., Delaware Supreme Court Chief Justice Myron T. Steele, Delaware Secretary of State Harriet Smith Windsor, Delaware Correction Commissioner Carl C. Danberg, former Delaware House of Representatives member Robert L. Byrd, and New Castle County Executive Chris Coons.[4]
On November 24, 2008, after Biden's election to the vice presidency but before his resignation, outgoing Governor Ruth Ann Minner announced that she would appoint Biden's former chief of staff, a member of the Broadcasting Board of Governors named Ted Kaufman, as Biden's temporary successor.[5] Minner said, "I believe Ted Kaufman meets every test I set for this office. His political views are close to Sen. Biden's, and he has agreed to focus solely on doing the people's work, not seeking re-election."[4]
Biden resigned in January 2009; Minner formally appointed Kaufman to the seat shortly thereafter. He will continue to serve until a replacement is elected in November 2010.
Democratic primary
Candidates
On Ballot
- Chris Coons, New Castle County Executive [6]
Not running
- Incumbent Senator Ted Kaufman of Greenville, who served as Biden's chief of staff and as a member of the Broadcasting Board of Governors before being appointed to this seat, has announced that he does not intend to be a candidate in the special election.[7]
- Former Lieutenant Governor John C. Carney of Wilmington.[8] During the appointment process, Carney indicated he would accept an appointment under any terms, including as a careholder who would not run in 2010.[4] Carney has since announced his candidacy for the House seat.[9]
- State Attorney General Beau Biden of Wilmington.[4] Although he was reportedly considered for the appointment to his father's Senate seat, the Vice President's son was in the process of deploying to the Iraq War with the Delaware National Guard, and said he would not accept any appointment.[4] In October 2009, after his deployment concluded, Biden stated that he was considering a run for the Senate seat.[10] Most polls showed Biden and likely Republican opponent Castle neck-and-neck in a potential matchup.[11] On January 25, 2010, Beau Biden confirmed that he would not run for the Senate seat.[12]
Results
Republican primary
Candidates
- Michael Castle, U.S. Representative and former Governor
- Christine O'Donnell, Political commentator and 2008 Senate nominee
Campaign
In April 2009, Castle stated “there’s probably a better chance I’ll run for the Senate than the House. [But] I said there’s a chance I won’t run at all.”[13] On October 6, 2009, Castle announced that he would in fact run for the Senate seat.[14] After losing the 2008 election to incumbent Democrat Joe Biden, O'Donnell indicated she would strongly consider running for the seat again in 2010, asking supporters on her web site to "save your yard sign!!"[15] On February 12, 2009, O'Donnell announced her candidacy.[16] She reiterated that she was in the race even after Michael Castle announced his candidacy in October 2009,[17] and formally launched her campaign on March 10, 2010.[18] In her remarks, O'Donnell criticized excessive government spending, said that Castle was the most liberal Republican in the House, and said that the Tea Party movement and grassroots anti-incumbent trends would be in her favor.[19][20]
When a report from The News Journal in March 2010 detailed O'Donnell's fiscal difficulties, she attributed the problems to misunderstandings and errors, and said, "I think the fact that I have struggled financially is what makes me so sympathetic."[21][22][23] Nevertheless, her financial problems became a focal point of establishment Republican attacks against her.[24] A July 2010 Rasmussen Reports poll showed O'Donnell running ahead of Democratic Senate candidate Chris Coons by a margin of 41 to 39 percent in a hypothetical matchup,[25] while a similar poll in August had her trailing Coons 46 to 36 percent.[26] During this time she picked up the endorsements of the Susan B. Anthony List, the Tea Party Express, which called her a “strong voice for conservative constitutionalist principles”,[27] and the Family Research Council.[28]
O'Donnell supporters were heartened by the late August primary victory in Alaska of little-known, Tea Party-backed insurgent Joe Miller over incumbent Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski.[24] The Tea Party Express said it might spend as much as $600,000 backing O'Donnell.[24] The added 'buzz' about her campaign also brought additional scrutiny on her record and financial history, including a contentious interview on WGMD radio.[29][30] As September began, the nastiness of the tone of the race had increased, with Delaware Republican Party chair Tom Ross saying, "Is Christine O'Donnell actually this unhinged from reality? Or is she simply a liar, whose total lack of respect for Delaware voters leads her to deliberately and repeatedly deny the clear facts surrounding her many personal and professional failures?"[31]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mike Castle | |||
| Republican | Christine O'Donnell | |||
| Total votes | ||||
General election
Candidates
- Chris Coons (D)
- Republican nominee tbd
- James Rash (L)
- Glenn Miller (I)
Predictions
| Source | Ranking |
|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Likely R |
| Rothenberg | Leans R |
| Rasmussen Reports | Leans R |
| Swing State Project | Leans R |
| Real Clear Politics | Leans R |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Leans R |
| CQ Politics | Likely R |
Polling
| Poll Source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of Error |
Michael Castle (R) |
Chris Coons (D) |
Christine O’Donnell (R) |
Other | Unde cided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research 2000 | October 12-14, 2009 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 51% | 39% | –– | –– | 10% |
| Rasmussen Reports | January 25, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 56% | 27% | –– | 5% | 13% |
| Rasmussen Reports | February 22, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 53% | 32% | –– | 8% | 8% |
| Research 2000 | February 22–24, 2010 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 53% | 35% | –– | –– | 12% |
| –– | 47% | 31% | –– | 22% | ||||
| Rasmussen Reports | April 29, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 55% | 32% | –– | 7% | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports | July 14, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 47% | 36% | –– | 6% | 11% |
| –– | 39% | 41% | 7% | 12% | ||||
| Rasmussen Reports | August 5, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 49% | 37% | –– | 5% | 9% |
| –– | 46% | 36% | 10% | 8% | ||||
| Public Policy Polling | August 7-8, 2010 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 48% | 35% | –– | –– | 17% |
| –– | 44% | 37% | –– | 19% | ||||
| Rasmussen Reports | September 2, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 48% | 37% | –– | 6% | 9% |
| –– | 47% | 36% | 8% | 9% |
Fundraising
| Candidate (Party) | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash On Hand | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Castle (R) | $3,243,203 | $1,489,035 | $2,616,912 | $0 |
| Christine O'Donnell (R) | $259,622 | $230,095 | $20,374 | $9,950 |
| Christopher A. Coons (D) | $1,622,522 | $678,291 | $944,230 | $250,000 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[33] | ||||
References
- ^ 2010 Delaware Election Calendar Delaware Commissioner of Elections
- ^ http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/08/could-castle-be-next.html
- ^ Nuckols, Ben (2008-11-04). "Biden wins 7th Senate term but may not serve". Associated Press. Retrieved 2008-11-04.
- ^ a b c d e Montgomery, Jeff (November 24, 2008). "Minner taps Kaufman for Biden's seat". Delaware News-Journal. Retrieved 2008-11-24.
- ^ Kornreich, Lauren (2008-11-24). "Former Biden advisor picked as Senate replacement". CNN.
- ^ [1][dead link]
- ^ Brumfield, Susan (November 24, 2008). "Longtime Biden aide picked to fill his Senate seat". Associated Press. Retrieved 2008-11-25.
- ^ Volturo, Drew (2008-12-01). "Who will run for Senate in 2010?". Delaware State News.
- ^ "John Carney". Johncarneyforcongress.com. 2009-04-15. Retrieved 2010-06-14.
- ^ Burns, Alexander (October 15, 2009). "VP's son considering Senate run". Politico.
- ^ See Public Policy Polling for November 30-December 2, 2009; Susquehanna for November 16, 2009; Daily Kos for October 14, 2009; Rasmussen Reports for September 30, 2009; Susquehanna for April 27–30, 2009; Public Policy Polling for March 5–8, 2009.
- ^ January 25, 2010 (2010-01-25). "Beau Biden takes a pass on a Senate run | D.C. Now | Los Angeles Times". Latimesblogs.latimes.com. Retrieved 2010-06-14.
{{cite news}}: Text " 8:03 am" ignored (help)CS1 maint: extra punctuation (link) CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) - ^ John McArdle (April 23, 2009). "Castle More Likely to Run for Senate Than Re-Election". Roll Call.
{{cite news}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=(help) - ^ "Delaware GOP Congressman to Run for Biden's Former Senate Seat". FOXNews.com. October 6, 2009. Retrieved 2010-06-14.
- ^ O'Donnell, Christine. "Dear Supporters". Christine O'Donnell for U.S. Senate. Retrieved 2008-12-17.
- ^ "The Delaware Business Ledger - Newark, DE". Ledgerdelaware.com. Retrieved 2010-06-14.
- ^ [2][dead link]
- ^ "Delaware politics: Christine O'Donnell to announce primary bid against Rep. Mike Castle for Senate seat". The News Journal. March 9, 2010. Retrieved March 9, 2010.
- ^ Tucker, Jeremy (2010-03-11). "O'Donnell Announces Run Against Castle". WBOC-TV. Retrieved 2010-03-15.
- ^ Eichmann, Mark (2010-03-10). "O'Donnell takes aim at Castle in Senate campaign kick-off". WHYY-TV. Retrieved 2010-03-15.
- ^ Gibson, Ginger (2010-03-20). "Delaware politics: O'Donnell faces campaign debt, back-tax issues". The News Journal. Wilmington. Retrieved 2010-03-25.
- ^ "Been There, Vote For Me". CQ Politics. 2010-03-22. Retrieved 2010-03-26.
- ^ "GOP Senate Candidate Admits Financial Woes". WJZ-TV. Associated Press. 2010-03-20. Retrieved 2010-03-26.
- ^ a b c Weisman, Jonathan (2010-08-30). "Tea Party Backs O'Donnell in Delaware". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 2010-09-01.
- ^ "Election 2010: Delaware Senate". Rasmussen Reports. 2010-07-15.
- ^ May, Caroline (2010-08-12). "Christine O'Donnell and Rep. Mike Castle do battle in the GOP Senate primary in Delaware". The Daily Caller. Retrieved 2010-08-14.
- ^ Catanese, David (2010-07-27). "O'Donnell gets Tea Party backing". The Politico. Retrieved 2010-08-01.
- ^ "FRC Action PAC Endorses Christine O'Donnell for Senate" (Press release). Family Research Council Action PAC. 2010-07-27. Retrieved 2010-08-14.
- ^ http://www.wgmd.com/?p=9496
- ^ Catanese, Dan (2010-09-02). "Christine O'Donnell plays defense on radio". Politico. Retrieved 2010-09-02.
- ^ "Delaware GOP Suggests Tea Party Senate Challenger Is a 'Liar'". Fox News. 2010-09-03. Retrieved 2010-09-04.
- ^ This table assumes a Castle victory in the primary
- ^ "2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Delaware". fec.gov. Retrieved September 6, 2010.
External links
- Delaware Commissioner of Elections
- U.S. Congress candidates for Delaware at Project Vote Smart
- Delaware U.S. Senate - Special Election from OurCampaigns.com
- Campaign contributions from Open Secrets
- 2010 Delaware Senate General Election: Head-to-Head Matchups graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
- Election 2010: Delaware Senate from Rasmussen Reports
- Delaware Senate - Castle vs. Biden from Real Clear Politics
- 2010 Delaware Senate Race from CQ Politics
- Race profile from The New York Times
- Official candidate websites
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