2011 East Africa drought

2011 East Africa drought
Country	Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda and neighboring countries
Location	Catastrophe-level in southern Somalia; emergency-level and crisis-level across much of the East Africa region
Period	July 2011 –
Total deaths	Estimated over 29,000 for children under-5 in Somalia
Death rate	Up to 7.4 per 10,000 per day; up to 15.3 per 10,000 per day for children under-5
Theory	Severe drought; lack of humanitarian aid; insurgency
Relief	$2.48 billion requested; $1.12 billion committed
Effect on demographics	More than 13.3 million in need of assistance in Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia

Since mid-July 2011, a severe drought has been affecting the entire East Africa region. Said to be "the worst in 60 years", the drought has caused a severe food crisis across Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya that threatens the livelihood of more than 13.3 million people. Many refugees from southern Somalia have fled to neighboring Kenya and Ethiopia, where crowded, unsanitary conditions together with severe malnutrition have led to a large number of deaths. Other countries in and around the Horn of Africa, including Djibouti, Sudan, South Sudan and parts of Uganda, are also affected by a food crisis.

On 20 July, the United Nations officially declared famine in two regions of southern Somalia, the first time a famine has been declared by the UN in nearly thirty years. Tens of thousands of people are believed to have died in southern Somalia before famine was declared. On 3 August, the UN declared famine in three other regions of southern Somalia, citing worsening conditions and inadequate humanitarian response. Famine was expected to spread across all regions of the south in the following four to six weeks. On Sept. 5, the UN added the entire Bay region in Somalia to the list of famine-stricken areas. The UN has conducted several airlifts of supplies in addition to on-the-ground assistance, but humanitarian response to the crisis has been hindered by a severe lack of funding for international aid coupled with security issues in the region. 63 per cent of the UN’s appeal for $2.5 billion (US) in humanitarian assistance has been financed.

The Deyr rains arrived in mid-October 2011, bringing some relief, but also damaging temporary structures and increasing the risk of water-bourne disease. Major rains are not expected until March 2012, which should pave the way for a harvest in July or August of 2012.

According to Mercy Corps, full recovery from the drought's effects is not expected until 2012. Long-term strategies by national governments in conjunction with development agencies are believed to offer the most sustainable results.

Background

Carcasses of sheep and goats amidst a severe drought in Waridaad in the Somaliland region

Weather conditions over the Pacific, including an unusually strong La Niña, have interrupted seasonal rains for two consecutive seasons. The rains failed this year in Kenya and Ethiopia, and for the last two years in Somalia. In many areas, the precipitation rate during the main rainy season from April to June, the primary season, was less than 30% of the average of 1995–2010. The lack of rain led to crop failure and widespread loss of livestock, as high as 40%–60% in some areas, which decreased milk production as well as exacerbating a poor harvest. As a result, cereal prices have been pushed to record levels while livestock prices and wages have fallen, reducing purchasing power across the region. Rains are not expected to return until September. The crisis is compounded by rebel activity around southern Somalia from the Al-Shabaab group.

The head of the United States Agency for International Development, Rajiv Shah, stated that climate change has contributed to the severity of the crisis. "There's no question that hotter and drier growing conditions in sub-Saharan Africa have reduced the resiliency of these communities." On the other hand, two experts with the International Livestock Research Institute suggested that it is premature to blame climate change for the drought. While there is consensus that a particularly strong La Niña contributed to the intensity of the drought, the relationship between La Niña and climate change is not well-established.

The failure of the international community to heed the early warning system has been criticized for leading to a worsening of the crisis. Oxfam's humanitarian director Jane Cocking stated that “This is a preventable disaster and solutions are possible.” Suzanne Dvorak, the chief executive of Save the Children, wrote that "politicians and policymakers in rich countries are often skeptical about taking preventative action because they think aid agencies are inflating the problem. Developing country governments are embarrassed about being seen as unable to feed their people. [...] these children are wasting away in a disaster that we could—and should—have prevented." Soon after a famine was declared in parts of southern Somalia, Oxfam also charged several European governments of "wilful neglect" over the crisis. It issued a statement saying that "The warning signs have been seen for months, and the world has been slow to act. Much greater long-term investment is needed in food production and basic development to help people cope with poor rains and ensure that this is the last famine in the region."

Humanitarian situation

Turkana women in the Turkana District, one of Kenya's most drought-affected regions.

On 20 July, a famine was declared in Lower Shabelle and Bakool, two regions of southern Somalia. On 3 August, famine was further declared in the Balcad and Cadale districts in Middle Shabelle, and the IDP settlements in Mogadishu and Afgooye. According to the UN, famine will spread to all eight regions of southern Somalia in four to six weeks due to inadequate humanitarian response, caused both by ongoing access restrictions and funding gaps. The Economist reports that widespread famine may soon occur across the entire Horn of Africa, "a situation...not seen for 25 years".

Staple prices are currently at 68% over the five-year average, including increases of up to 240% in southern Somalia, 117% in south-eastern Ethiopia, and 58% in northern Kenya. In early July, the UN World Food Programme said that it expects 10 million people across the Horn of Africa region to need food aid, revising upward an earlier estimate of 6 million. In late July, the UN further updated the figure to 12 million, with 2.8 million in southern Somalia alone, where the worst of the crisis is taking place. The crisis is expected to worsen in the following months, peaking in August and September. Large-scale assistance will be needed until at least December 2011.

Torrential rains have also exacerbated the situation in Mogadishu by destroying makeshift homes. Tens of thousands of southern Somalia's internally-displaced people have consequently been left out in the cold.

In addition, the Kenyan Red Cross warns of a looming humanitarian crisis in the northwestern Turkana region of Kenya, which borders South Sudan. According to officials with the aid agency, over three-fourths of the area's population is now in dire need of food supplies. Malnutrition levels are also at their highest. As a consequence, schools in the region have shut down "because there is no food for the children". About 385,000 children in these neglected parts of Kenya are already malnourished, along with 90,000 pregnant and breast feeding women. A further 3.5 million people in Kenya are estimated to be at risk of malnutrition.

Food shortages have also been reported in northern and eastern Uganda. The Karamoja region and the Bulambuli district, in particular, are among the worst hit areas, with an estimated 1.2 million Ugandans affected. The Ugandan government has also indicated that as of September 2011, acute deficits in foodstuffs are expected in 35 of the country's districts.

Refugee crisis

A Somali woman and child at a relief camp in Dollow on the Somalia-Ethiopia border.

As of 15 September, more than 920,000 refugees from Somalia have fled to neighboring countries, in particular Kenya and Ethiopia. The UNHCR base in Dadaab, Kenya currently hosts at least 440,000 people in three refugee camps. The maximum capacity of the Dadaab camps is 90,000. More than 1,500 refugees continue to arrive every day from southern Somalia, 80 per cent of them women and children. UN High Commissioner for Refugees spokeswoman Melissa Fleming said that many people have died en route. Within the camps, infant mortality has risen threefold in the last few months. The overall mortality rate is 7.4 out of 10,000 per day, which is more than seven times as high as the "emergency" rate of 1 out of 10,000 per day. There is an upsurge in sexual violence against women and girls, with the number of cases reported increasing by over 4 times. Incidents of sexual violence occur primarily during travel to the refugee camps, with some cases reported in the camps themselves or as new refugees go in search for firewood. This has put them at high risk of HIV/AIDS.

Dolo Odo, Ethiopia also hosts at least 110,000 refugees from Somalia, most of whom arrived recently. The three camps at Bokolomanyo, Melkadida, and Kobe have all exceeded their maximum capacity; one more camp is being built while another is planned in the future. Malnutrition rates among children under five have reached as high as 33%. Water shortage is affecting all the refugee camps. In a publicized case the beginning of August, a mother sent back four of her children when it was taking her nine days for her and her family to be registered at Kobe.

Health and disease

File:Ibrahimsom.jpg

A Somali boy at a treatment center in Dadaab.

Measles has also broken out in the Dadaab camps, with 462 cases confirmed including 11 deaths. Ethiopia and Kenya are also facing a severe measles epidemic, attributed in part to the refugee crisis, with over 17,500 cases reported in the first 6 months. WHO statistics put the number of children most at the risk of measles at 2 million. The epidemic in Ethiopia may have led to an measles outbreak in the United States and other parts of the developed world. The World Health Organization stated that "8.8 million people are at risk of malaria and 5 million of cholera" in Ethiopia, due to crowded, unsanitary conditions. Malnutrition rates among children have reached 30 percent in parts of Kenya and Ethiopia and over 50% in southern Somalia, although the latter figure dropped to 36% by mid-September according to the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit. Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) is treating more than 10,000 severely malnourished children in its feeding centers and clinics. According to the UN's food security and nutrition analysis unit, the situation in southern Somalia now meets all three characteristics of widespread famine: a) more than 30 percent of children suffering from acute malnutrition; b) more than two adults or four children dying of hunger each day for every group of 10,000 people; and c) the population having access to less than 2,100 kilocalories of food and four liters of water per day. As of August, cholera has been suspected in 181 deaths in Mogadishu, along with confirmed reports of several other outbreaks elsewhere in Somalia, thus raising fears of tragedy for a severely weakened population. Cholera can usually be successfully treated with oral rehydration solution and antibiotics, but many health centers in Somalia lack even these basic supplies. Persons suffering from malnourishment can either be over- or under-estimated with dehydration. This diagnosis is typically made on whether or not the person has been having diarrhea. There is a Rehydration Solution for Malnutrition (ReSoMal) specifically for persons simultaneously suffering from both malnourishment and diarrhea. The aspect that remains the same is that the person should continue to be given food while they are also receiving solution for dehydration.

Security

Main article: War in Somalia (2009–)

The head of United States Agency for International Development, Rajiv Shah stated that the drought may worsen the security situation in the region. "This is happening precisely in a part of the world that our Defense Secretary Leon Panetta just said is a critical part of our fight against terrorism and our overall international security. It just underscores the deep link between food security and national security." Armed herders are violently competing for dwindling resources. In Kenya alone more than 100 herders have been killed.

The battle flag of Al-Shabaab, an Islamist group implicated in the crisis

Fears of the Al-Shabaab insurgents, who control most of southern Somalia, continue to hinder humanitarian operations in the region. "We need significantly better access than we have at the moment to address an emergency of this scale." UN agencies are “in a dialogue” with al-Shabaab about securing airstrips in areas under the insurgent group’s control to deliver aid. The United Nations World Food Programme is considering a return to southern Somalia, from which it withdrew in 2010 after threats from the rebel group Al-Shabaab. It estimates that there are 1 million people in areas it cannot currently access. In early July 2011, Al-Shabaab announced that it had withdrawn its restrictions on international humanitarian workers, and that all aid organizations will be allowed in.

However, on 22 July, the group stated that the ban on certain organizations remains in place. In a statement, Al-Shabaab's spokesman Sheikh Ali Dhere indicated that his organization had no issue with allowing "Muslims and non-Muslims to help the drought affected people", but that they will "only be permitted to work if they do not have other interests". He stated that banned agencies belong to two categories: some that are acting as spies, while others, including the UN, that have "a political agenda, doing nothing like what they were claiming". He also criticized aid agencies that are providing assistance in neighboring countries, stating that "They are luring needy people with food in order to teach them their Christianity." Hassan Liban, a director of the British charity Islamic Relief which has managed to gain access through negotiations, said that Al-Shabaab were not keen on emergency relief that was not tied to longer-term programmes to help people recover their livelihoods. He stated that "To any organisation that just wants to send food, they say: 'Give us the food and go away'. But if it's sustainable and planned they will allow you to work."

Al-Shabaab members have allegedly intimidated, kidnapped and killed some aid workers, leading to a partial suspension of humanitarian operations in southern Somalia. Ethiopia and the UN also accuse the Eritrean government of backing the insurgents. On 28 July, African Union peacekeepers launched a major offensive against Al-Shabaab militants in northern Mogadishu, Somalia, in an effort to protect famine relief efforts from attacks. Six were killed during the conflict, and key territory was seized from the insurgents. Al-Shabaab has sent 300 reinforcement fighters to Mogadishu in the preceding days, according to Lt. Col. Paddy Ankunda, spokesman for the AU peacekeeping force in Somalia. He stated that "This action will further increase security ... and ensure that aid agencies can continue to operate to get vital supplies to internally displaced." As of August 1, the beginning of the Ramadan, the African Union offensive in ongoing. However, AU intelligence sources said that the insurgents are planning a counteroffensive during the month of fasting.

A girl stands amid the graves of 70 children on the outskirts of Dadaab. The long desert journey to the relief camps has claimed many lives.

On August 6, 2011, Reuters reported that the Transitional Federal Government's troops and their AMISOM allies managed to capture all of Mogadishu from the Al-Shabaab militants. Witnesses reported Al-Shabaab vehicles abandoning their bases in the capital for the south-central city of Baidoa. The group's spokesman Sheikh Ali Mohamud Rage described the exodus as a tactical retreat, and vowed to continue the insurgency against the national government. Observers have also suggested that the pullout may at least in part have been caused by internal ideological rifts in the rebel organization.

On July 4, 2011, the Prime Minister of Somalia Abdiweli Mohamed Ali appointed a national committee to tackle the severe drought affecting the southern part of the country. The committee consists of several federal-level members of government, including the Ministers of Defense, Health, Interior, Finance, Public Works, Women's Affairs and Information. It is tasked with assessing and addressing the needs of the drought-impacted segments of the population.

On August 13, Prime Minister Ali also announced the creation of a new 300-man security force in response to discussions with UN officials about the situation in Mogadishu. The UN stated earlier in the week that aid was only reaching around 20% of the drought-affected peoples, with most of the famine-stricken areas still controlled by Al-Shabaab rebels. Assisted by African peacekeepers, the new military unit will have as its primary goal to protect convoys and food aid, as well as to secure the IDP camps themselves when the relief supplies are being distributed. Besides helping to stabilize the city, the new protection force is also tasked with combating looting and banditry in addition to other vices.

On August 16, Neela Ghoshal, an official with Human Rights Watch, told Reuters that her group had received complaints of government soldiers robbing civilians. However, Voice of America reported earlier in the month that, according to witnesses at a camp in Mogadishu, men dressed as government troops began stealing food rations, after which point government soldiers that were guarding the supplies opened fire on the looters. In response to the incident, the Somalian government forces Commander General Abdikarim Dhengobadan denied that his men were responsible for the looting. The Information Minister of Somalia Abdirahman Omar Osman and the AMISOM commander Paddy Akunda have also previously accused Al-Shabaab militants of disguising themselves as Somalian government soldiers before attacking government and AMISOM positions.

Despite this, according to the UN, the security situation in the capital has generally improved since the withdrawal of Al-Shabaab militants, thus facilitating the scaling up of relief efforts in the region.

International response

Funding Status Horn of Africa Crisis (as of 24 September 2011)

	Requirements (million US$)	Committed (million US$)	% met
Kenya	741	480	65%
Djibouti	33	19	56%
Somalia	983	732	74%
Ethiopia (non-refugees)	398	291	73%
Ethiopia (refugees)	246	112	45%
Miscellaneous funding		76
Total	2402	1710	71%
Source: UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)

Humanitarian agencies have requested US$2.48 billion to address the crisis, but as of August 1 have secured less than half that amount. The European Union announced it would provide €5.67 million to help millions of people in the Horn of Africa affected by the drought. On 16 July, the UK government pledged £52.25 million, on top of £38 million pledged earlier that month and more than £13 million raised by the Disasters Emergency Committee. As of 25 August, the amount raised by the Disasters Emergency Committee had increased to £57 million. By October 5th Canada donated $212 million (9% of total required funds) ($70 million Canadian people plus $142 million government).

In late August 2011, Saudi Arabia announced that it would donate $60 million in aid to the drought-impacted peoples in Somalia and urged the Al-Shabaab militants to cease their hostilities so as to facilitate the delivery of relief materials. Iran dispatched multiple convoys of humanitarian supplies to the famine-stricken parts of the country, with Lebanon sending its first consignment to Mogadishu over the same period. Despite experiencing financial difficulties, Palestinians in the Gaza Strip also assisted in the relief efforts. Imams in mosques raised awareness about the drought crisis and its parallels with the Palestinian situation, and urged Palestinians to contribute; the Arab Doctors Union Gaza branch also launched a fund-raising initiative, with most donations coming from affluent entrepreneurs and local NGOs. Additionally, Bahrain donated $3 million to the campaign, with Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Egypt, Algeria, Qatar, and Sudan also sending supplies.

Elsewhere, Turkey dispatched multiple aid convoys to Somalia, working closely with the Somali Red Crescent Society to deliver the materials to the drought-stricken parts of the country. China also donated $16 million to the relief efforts, with Venezuela sending $5 million, Russia contributing $3 million, and Kazakhstan adding $500,000. In addition, Azerbaijan and Indonesia have assisted in the humanitarian campaign, with Malaysia dispatching aid workers on site.

Relief supplies at an Oxfam warehouse in Kenya.

The U.S. has pledged an additional $5 million to help refugees from Somalia on top of a previously budgeted $63 million for general support in the larger East Africa region. However, the U.S. has withheld aid from the Somalia region, due to recent regulations which prevent the sending of food aid that risks "materially benefiting" designated terrorists, in this case the rebel group Al-Shabaab. The regulations came into force after reports that Al-Shabaab was "taxing food convoys", and as a result U.S. aid spending in Somalia has dropped from $150 million to $13 million this year. Mercy Corps has stated that "The aid effort will remain totally inadequate if legal restrictions force the US to remain on the sidelines". In addition, under U.S. regulations, international organizations may face prosecution under US law if their humanitarian aid materially benefits Al-Shabaab. However, on 2 August, the United States announced that it would no longer prosecute humanitarian organizations who attempt to enter rebel-controlled territory.

On 12 July, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called an urgent emergency meeting with the heads of UN agencies. He stated after the meeting that immediate action must be taken to prevent the crisis from deepening. According to Ban, "The human cost of this crisis is catastrophic. We cannot afford to wait." On July 13, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees began a "massive" airlift of aid supplies to the Dadaab region in Kenya, including 100 tonnes of tents to help relieve the congestion at the overcrowded Dadaab camps. The United Nations carried out its first airlift of emergency supplies in two years to southern Somalia on Wednesday, 13 July. Health kits are also being sent through land routes. Among other measures being taken by aid agencies are the distribution of cash vouchers to residents, and discussions with traders to freeze rapidly increasing food prices.

Oxfam distributing clean water to a drought-stricken area in southern Ethiopia.

On 20 July, the United Nations officially declared a famine in two regions of southern Somalia, and on 3 August, famine was further declared in three other regions of southern Somalia. The famine was declared in response to new data from the UN's food security and nutrition analysis unit. This is the first time the UN has declared a famine since the 1984–1985 famine in Ethiopia, when over a million people died. Under international law, there is no mandated response which must follow from an official declaration of famine. However, it is hoped that the use of the term will serve as a "wake-up call" to the rest of the world, who have so far failed to respond. The UN humanitarian coordinator for Somalia, Mark Bowden, stated that UN agencies lack the necessary capacity to save the lives of hundreds of thousands of drought-affected people from Somalia, and that nearly $300 million in relief supplies are required over the next two months.

On 27 July, the UN World Food Programme announced that it had begun an airlift of food to Somalia. Ten tonnes of food were delivered to Mogadishu, with plans to expand delivery to southern Somalia where millions remain inaccessible, and may be too weak to cross the border into neighbouring Kenya. Delivery of food to the region remained complicated by the refusal of al-Shabaab militants to allow certain foreign aid agencies to work in the country.

On Aug. 25, a much delayed African Union summit raised a rather disappointing $51 million of direct aid, some of which were perhaps announced before, along with an additional $300 million from the African Development Bank to be spent over a four-year period. The African Union is, however, a young organization with little humanitarian experience.

On Aug. 30, the UN refugee agency announced that the furniture corporation IKEA would be making a $62 million donation (42.8 million euros) over three years to expand the overcrowded Dadaab refugee complex in Kenya. The company CEO was quoted as saying that this donation will “immediately make a difference” in thousands of lives. In Sept. 2011, Rajiv Shah, head of U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), stated “We're trying cash distributions through the hawala system and through mobile phones and then concomitantly flooding border markets with food so that traders can then make the connections." In early Oct. 2011, the ONE Campaign unveiled a public service message in which celebrities appear to be cursing and then the message says that famine is the real obscenity.

Fifty-six African artists and celebrities, including Nameless, Angélique Kidjo, 2face Idibia, Hugh Masekela, Freshlyground and K'naan, as well as international campaigners, sent a letter to a special UN session on the horn of Africa crisis scheduled for Saturday Oct. 8.

On Thursday Oct. 13, two women from Spain employed as aid workers with Doctors Without Borders at the Dadaab refugee camp were kidnapped by gunmen. The U.N. temporarily suspended all non-lifesaving aid operations at Dadaab. The Spanish branch of Medecins Sans Frontieres (Doctors Without Borders) announced that all 49 expatriate staff working for the charity would be evacuated to Nairobi, leaving 343 local staff members in Dadaab. Certain activities such as registering new arrivals and journeying outside camp to meet refugees walking the final miles would be suspended. In October 2011, in a coordinated military operation with the Somalian military, Kenyan troops crossed the border into southern Somalia in pursuit of Al-Shabaab militants that are alleged to have kidnapped several foreign aid workers and tourists inside Kenya.

See also

• 1984–1985 famine in Ethiopia
• La Nina
• Desertification

External links

• Horn of Africa crisis—United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
• Full Report on the Horn of Africa drought, United Nations, 29 July 2011
• Horn of Africa Drought collected news and commentary at Aljazeera
• East Africa's Famine: Disunited in hunger, The Economist, 21 July 2011
• Famine collected news and commentary at The Guardian, with Explainer and Drought map
• Horn of Africa Emergency at the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), funded by USAID

Humanitarian organizations

• East Africa food crisis at Oxfam
• Horn of Africa Hunger Crisis at Mercy Corps
• Eastern and Southern Africa at UNICEF