2016 Scottish Parliament election: Difference between revisions
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!! style="width:100px;"| Date(s)<br>conducted !! style="width:350px;"|Polling organisation/client!! class="unsortable" style="width:65px;"| Sample size!! class="unsortable" style="background:#FFFF00; width:90px;"| [[Scottish National Party|<span style="color:Black;">SNP</span>]]!! class="unsortable" style="background:#dc241f; width:90px;"|[[Labour Party (UK)|<span style="color:White;">Lab</span>]]!! class="unsortable" style="background:#0087dc; width:90px;"| [[Conservative Party (UK)|<span style="color:White;">Cons</span>]]!! class="unsortable" style="background:#fdbb30; width:90px;"| [[Liberal Democrats|<span style="color:Black;">Lib Dem</span>]]!! class="unsortable" style="background:gray; width:90px;"| [[List of political parties in the United Kingdom|<span]]!! style="color:White;">Others</span>]]!! class="unsortable" style="width:20px;"| Lead |
!! style="width:100px;"| Date(s)<br>conducted !! style="width:350px;"|Polling organisation/client!! class="unsortable" style="width:65px;"| Sample size!! class="unsortable" style="background:#FFFF00; width:90px;"| [[Scottish National Party|<span style="color:Black;">SNP</span>]]!! class="unsortable" style="background:#dc241f; width:90px;"|[[Labour Party (UK)|<span style="color:White;">Lab</span>]]!! class="unsortable" style="background:#0087dc; width:90px;"| [[Conservative Party (UK)|<span style="color:White;">Cons</span>]]!! class="unsortable" style="background:#fdbb30; width:90px;"| [[Liberal Democrats|<span style="color:Black;">Lib Dem</span>]]!! class="unsortable" style="background:gray; width:90px;"| [[List of political parties in the United Kingdom|<span]]!! style="color:White;">Others</span>]]!! class="unsortable" style="width:20px;"| Lead |
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| data-sort-value=''2014-10-30'' |22 - 29 Oct || [https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Publications/PUBLIC%20%20SPOM%20Wave%2022%20Topline%20for%20STV%20-%20final%20-%2030%2010%2014%20-%20GE%20ONLY.pdf Ipsos MORI/STV News] || 1,026 ||style="background:#F0E68C" | '''52%'''|| 23% || 10% || 6% || 9%|| style="background:#F0E68C"| 29% |
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| data-sort-value="2014-10-24" |24 Oct|| colspan="10" | '''[[Johann Lamont]] resigns as leader of the [[Scottish Labour Party]], triggering a leadership election''' |
| data-sort-value="2014-10-24" |24 Oct|| colspan="10" | '''[[Johann Lamont]] resigns as leader of the [[Scottish Labour Party]], triggering a leadership election''' |
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| data-sort-value="2014-10-15" |15 Oct|| colspan="10" | '''After being the only candidate to stand in the [[Scottish National Party leadership election, 2014|leadership election]], [[Nicola Sturgeon]] becomes the leader-elect of the SNP, as well as the next [[First Minister of Scotland|First Minister]]''' |
| data-sort-value="2014-10-15" |15 Oct|| colspan="10" | '''After being the only candidate to stand in the [[Scottish National Party leadership election, 2014|leadership election]], [[Nicola Sturgeon]] becomes the leader-elect of the SNP, as well as the next [[First Minister of Scotland|First Minister]]''' |
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| data-sort-value="2014-10-01" |12 Sep - 1 Oct || [http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/F6239livev1.pdf Panelbase/Scottish National Party] || 1,049 ||style="background:#F0E68C" | '''42%''' || 27% || 15% || 5% || 10% || style="background:#F0E68C"| 15% |
| data-sort-value="2014-10-01" |12 Sep - 1 Oct || [http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/F6239livev1.pdf Panelbase/Scottish National Party] || 1,049 ||style="background:#F0E68C" | '''42%''' || 27% || 15% || 5% || 10% || style="background:#F0E68C"| 15% |
Revision as of 16:05, 30 October 2014
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The 2016 Scottish Parliament general election is due to be held on Thursday 5 May 2016[1] to elect 129 members to the Scottish Parliament. It would be the fifth general election since the devolved parliament was established in 1999.
Date
Under the Scotland Act 1998, an ordinary general election to the Scottish Parliament would normally be held on the first Thursday in May four years after the 2011 election, i.e. in May 2015.[2] However, in May 2010, the new UK Government stated in the coalition agreement that the next United Kingdom general election would also be held in May 2015.[3] This proposal was criticised by the Scottish National Party and Labour, as it had been recommended after the 2007 election that elections with different voting systems should be held on separate days; a recommendation which all of the political parties had then accepted.[4] In response to this criticism, Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg offered the right to vary the date of the Scottish Parliament election by a year either way.[5] All the main political parties then stated their support for delaying the election by a year.[6][7] The Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, a statute of the Westminster Parliament, has moved the date of the Scottish Parliament general election to 5 May 2016.[1]
The date of the poll may be varied by up to one month either way by the monarch, on the proposal of the Presiding Officer.[2]
If Parliament itself resolves that it should be dissolved, with at least two-thirds of the Members (i.e. 86 Members) voting in favour, the Presiding Officer proposes a date for an extraordinary general election and the Parliament is dissolved by the monarch by royal proclamation.
It does not necessarily require a two-thirds majority to precipitate an extraordinary general election, because under the Scotland Act Parliament is also dissolved if it fails to nominate one of its members to be First Minister within certain time limits, irrespective of whether at the beginning or in the middle of a parliamentary term. Therefore, if the First Minister resigned, Parliament would then have 28 days to elect a successor (s46(2)b and s46(3)a). If no new First Minister is elected then the Presiding Officer would ask for Parliament to be dissolved under s3(1)a. This process could also be triggered if the First Minister lost a vote of confidence by a simple majority (i.e. more than 50%), as s/he must then resign (Scotland Act 1998 s45(2)). To date the Parliament has never held a confidence vote on a First Minister.
No extraordinary general elections have been held to date. Any extraordinary general elections would be in addition to ordinary general elections, unless held less than six months before the due date of an ordinary general election, in which case they supplant it. The subsequent ordinary general election reverts to the first Thursday in May, a multiple of four years after 1999.[8]
It was envisaged that the general election would still have taken place as scheduled if Scotland had voted in favour of independence in 2014.[9]
2011 results
The table below shows the figures for seats won by each party at the 2011 election. In the days after the 2011 election, which resulted in an SNP overall majority, Iain Gray, Annabel Goldie and Tavish Scott resigned as leaders of the Scottish Labour Party, Scottish Conservative Party and Scottish Liberal Democrats respectively.[10]
Party | Constituency Seats | Regional Seats | Total Seats |
---|---|---|---|
SNP | 53 | 16 | 69 |
Labour | 15 | 22 | 37 |
Conservative | 3 | 12 | 15 |
Liberal Democrat | 2 | 3 | 5 |
Scottish Green | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Independent | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Totals | 73 | 56 | 129 |
Election system, seats, and regions
The total number of Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs) elected to the Parliament is 129.
The First Periodical Review of the Scottish Parliament's constituencies and regions by the Boundary Commission for Scotland, was announced on 3 July 2007. The Commission published its provisional proposals for the regional boundaries in 2009.
The Scottish Parliament uses an Additional Members System, designed to produce approximate proportional representation for each region. There are 8 regions each sub-divided into smaller constituencies. There are a total of 73 constituencies. Each constituency elects one (MSP) by the plurality (first past the post) system of election. Each region elects 7 additional member MSPs using an additional member system. A modified D'Hondt method, using the constituency results, is used to calculate which additional member MSPs the regions elect.[11][12]
The Scottish Parliament constituencies have not been coterminous with Scottish Westminster constituencies since the 2005 general election, when the 72 former Westminster constituencies were replaced with a new set of 59, generally larger, constituencies (see Scottish Parliament (Constituencies) Act 2004). The boundaries used for the Scottish Parliament elections were then revised for the 2011 election. The Boundary Commission also recommended changes to the electoral regions used to elect "list" members of the Scottish Parliament,[13] which were also implemented in 2011.
Opinion Polling
Constituency Vote (FPTP)
2014
Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | SNP | Lab | Cons | Lib Dem | <span | style="color:White;">Others]] | Lead | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
22 - 29 Oct | Ipsos MORI/STV News | 1,026 | 52% | 23% | 10% | 6% | 9% | 29% | ||
24 Oct | Johann Lamont resigns as leader of the Scottish Labour Party, triggering a leadership election | |||||||||
15 Oct | After being the only candidate to stand in the leadership election, Nicola Sturgeon becomes the leader-elect of the SNP, as well as the next First Minister | |||||||||
12 Sep - 1 Oct | Panelbase/Scottish National Party | 1,049 | 42% | 27% | 15% | 5% | 10% | 15% | ||
19 Sep | Survation/Daily Mail | 871 | 49% | 31% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 18% | ||
19 Sep | First Minister Alex Salmond announces his resignation after the Scottish independence referendum result is declared | |||||||||
15 Sep - 17 Sep | YouGov/The Sun | 3,237 | 40% | 32% | 15% | 4% | 9% | 8% | ||
12 Sep - 16 Sep | Survation/Daily Mail | 1,000 | 42% | 31% | 15% | 6% | 6% | 11% | ||
9 Sep - 11 Sep | YouGov/The Times/The Sun | 1,268 | 39% | 35% | 15% | 4% | 8% | 4% | ||
5 Sep - 9 Sep | Survation/Daily Record | 1,000 | 43% | 33% | 14% | 4% | 5% | 10% | ||
2 - 5 Sep | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,084 | 40% | 33% | 16% | 4% | 8% | 7% | ||
28 Aug - 1 Sep | YouGov/The Times/The Sun | 1,063 | 39% | 34% | 15% | 5% | 7% | 5% | ||
12 - 15 Aug | YouGov/The Times | 1,085 | 37% | 37% | 15% | 4% | 7% | Tied | ||
4 - 7 Aug | YouGov/The Sun | 1,142 | 36% | 37% | 16% | 4% | 7% | 1% | ||
28 Jul - 3 Aug | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,006 | 36% | 34% | 16% | 6% | 8% | 2% | ||
4 - 8 Jul | Survation/Daily Record | 1,013 | 44% | 31% | 13% | 5% | 7% | 13% | ||
25 - 29 Jun | YouGov/The Times | 1,206 | 35% | 37% | 15% | 6% | 8% | 2% | ||
12 - 16 Jun | YouGov/The Sun | 1,039 | 35% | 37% | 14% | 5% | 9% | 2% | ||
8 - 10 Jun | Survation/Daily Record | 1,004 | 46% | 28% | 13% | 6% | 6% | 18% | ||
16 May - 1 Jun | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,003 | 39% | 30% | 14% | 5% | 12% | 9% | ||
9–12 May | Survation/Daily Record | 1,003 | 44% | 32% | 15% | 5% | 4% | 12% | ||
11 - 15 Apr | Survation/Sunday Post | 1,002 | 46% | 32% | 13% | 6% | 4% | 14% | ||
4 - 7 Apr | Survation/Daily Record | 1,001 | 45% | 32% | 14% | 6% | 4% | 13% | ||
20 - 24 Mar | YouGov/The Times | 1,002 | 38% | 35% | 13% | 7% | 7% | 3% | ||
6 - 7 Mar | Survation/Daily Record/Better Nation | 1,002 | 45% | 34% | 13% | 5% | 4% | 11% | ||
24 - 28 Feb | YouGov | 1,257 | 39% | 37% | 14% | 5% | 5% | 2% | ||
17 - 18 Feb | Survation/Daily Mail | 1,005 | 44% | 31% | 13% | 6% | 6% | 13% | ||
29 Jan - 6 Feb | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,012 | 43% | 32% | 14% | 6% | 6% | 11% | ||
29-31 Jan | Survation/Mail on Sunday | 1,010 | 38% | 36% | 12% | 9% | 5% | 2% | ||
21-27 Jan | YouGov | 1,192 | 34% | 38% | 15% | 5% | 7% | 4% | ||
23 Jan | Labour wins the Cowdenbeath by-election, 2014 |
2013
Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | SNP | Lab | Cons | Lib Dem | <span | style="color:White;">Others]] | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
13-20 Dec | Panelbase/Scottish National Party | 1,012 | 40% | 32% | 15% | 5% | 8% | 8% | |
29 Nov - 5 Dec | Ipsos MORI/STV News | 1,006 | 36% | 34% | 15% | 7% | 7% | 2% | |
24 October | Labour wins the Dunfermline by-election, 2013 | ||||||||
9-15 Sep | Ipsos MORI | 1,000 | 41% | 37% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 4% | |
30 Aug - 5 Sep | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,002 | 45% | 32% | 12% | 5% | 6% | 13% | |
17-24 Jul | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,001 | 48% | 30% | 13% | 4% | 5% | 18% | |
20 June | The SNP wins the Aberdeen Donside by-election, 2013 | ||||||||
29 Apr - 5 May | Ipsos MORI/The Times | 1,001 | 39% | 36% | 16% | 8% | 1% | 2% | |
4-9 Feb | Ipsos MORI/The Times | 1,003 | 43% | 35% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 8% |
2012
Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | SNP | Lab | Cons | Lib Dem | <span | style="color:White;">Others]] | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8-15 Oct | Ipsos MORI/The Times | 1,003 | 40% | 35% | 13% | 8% | 4% | 5% | |
7-13 Jun | Ipsos MORI | 1,003 | 45% | 32% | 12% | 6% | 5% | 13% | |
27 - 29 Jan | Ipsos MORI | 1,005 | 49% | 23% | 13% | 10% | 5% | 26% | |
26 Jan - 1 Feb | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,008 | 43% | 25% | 12% | 4% | 3% | 18% |
2011
Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | SNP | Lab | Cons | Lib Dem | <span | style="color:White;">Others]] | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5 May | General Election Result | 1,989,222 | 45.4% | 31.7% | 13.9% | 7.9% | 1.1% | 13.7% |
Regional Vote (AMS)
2014
Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | SNP | Lab | Cons | Lib Dem | Green | UKIP | SSP | <span | style="color:Black;">Others]] | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 Oct | Johann Lamont resigns as leader of the Scottish Labour Party, trigering a leadership election | |||||||||||
15 Oct | After being the only candidate to stand in the leadership election, Nicola Sturgeon becomes the leader-elect of the SNP, as well as the next First Minister | |||||||||||
12 Sep - 1 Oct | Panelbase/Scottish National Party | 1,049 | 37% | 27% | 15% | 5% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 10% | ||
19 Sep | First Minister Alex Salmond announces his resignation after the Scottish independence referendum result is declared | |||||||||||
15 Sep - 17 Sep | YouGov/The Sun | 3,237 | 35% | 30% | 15% | 3% | 9% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 5% | |
12 Sep - 16 Sep | Survation/Daily Mail | 1,000 | 37% | 26% | 13% | 7% | 9% | 7% | 0% | 1% | 11% | |
9 Sep - 11 Sep | YouGov/The Times/The Sun | 1,268 | 34% | 33% | 14% | 4% | 8% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | |
5 Sep - 9 Sep | Survation/Daily Record | 1,000 | 38% | 27% | 15% | 5% | 9% | 6% | 0% | 1% | 11% | |
2 Sep - 5 Sep | YouGov/The Sunday Times | 1,084 | 34% | 31% | 15% | 4% | 8% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 3% | |
28 Aug - 1 Sep | YouGov/The Times/The Sun | 1,063 | 33% | 33% | 14% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 1% | Tied | |
12–15 August | YouGov/The Times | 1,085 | 32% | 34% | 14% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 2% | |
4–7 August | YouGov/The Sun | 1,142 | 31% | 35% | 15% | 5% | 8% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 4% | |
4–8 July | Survation/Daily Record | 1,013 | 37% | 26% | 13% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 0% | 1% | 11% | |
25–29 June | YouGov/The Times | 1,206 | 29% | 35% | 14% | 5% | 8% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 6% | |
12–16 June | YouGov/The Sun | 1,039 | 31% | 33% | 15% | 5% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 2% | |
8–10 June | Survation/Daily Record | 1,004 | 39% | 26% | 10% | 6% | 10% | 7% | 0% | 1% | 13% | |
9–12 May | Survation/Daily Record | 1,003 | 39% | 26% | 11% | 6% | 9% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 13% | |
11 - 15 Apr | Survation/Sunday Post | 1,001 | 38% | 28% | 11% | 7% | 8% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 10% | |
4 - 7 Apr | Survation/Daily Record | 1,002 | 41% | 25% | 12% | 9% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 16% | ||
20 - 24 Mar | YouGov/The Times | 1,072 | 33% | 33% | 13% | 7% | 7% | 3% | 4% | 1% | Tied | |
6 - 7 Mar | Survation/Daily Record/Better Nation | 1,002 | 40% | 28% | 11% | 7% | 8% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 12% | |
24 - 28 Feb | YouGov | 1,257 | 33% | 35% | 14% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 2% | |
17 - 18 Feb | Survation/Daily Mail | 1,005 | 41% | 29% | 13% | 8% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 12% | |
26 Jan - 6 Feb | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,012 | 44% | 27% | 13% | 5% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 17% | ||
21-27 Jan | YouGov | 1,192 | 34% | 33% | 14% | 6% | 7% | 0% | 3% | 3% | 1% | |
23 January | Labour wins the Cowdenbeath by-election, 2014 |
2013
Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | SNP | Lab | Cons | Lib Dem | Green | <span | style="color:White;">Others]] | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
13 - 20 Dec | Panelbase/Scottish National Party | 1,012 | 40% | 31% | 14% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 9% | |
24 October | Labour wins the Dunfermline by-election, 2013 | |||||||||
30 Aug - 5 Sep | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,002 | 46% | 28% | 12% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 18% | |
17 - 24 Jul | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,001 | 48% | 25% | 13% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 23% | |
20 June | The SNP wins the Aberdeen Donside by-election, 2013 |
2012
Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | SNP | Lab | Cons | Lib Dem | Green | <span | style="color:White;">Others]] | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9 - 19 Oct | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 972 | 40% | 27% | 11% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 13% | |
26 Jan - 1 Feb | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,008 | 41% | 25% | 11% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 16% |
2011
Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | SNP | Lab | Cons | Lib Dem | Green | <span | style="color:White;">Others]] | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5 May | General Election Result | 1,991,051 | 44% | 26.3% | 12.4% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 7.7% | 17.7% |
Top target seats of the main parties
Below are listed all the constituencies which required a swing of less than 5% from the 2011 result to change hands.
SNP targets
Conservative targets
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Labour targets
Liberal Democrat targets
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References
- ^ a b Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 section 4
- ^ a b "Scotland Act 1998 - Section 2 Ordinary General Elections". Office of Public Sector Information. Retrieved 8 May 2007.
- ^ Travis, Alan (13 May 2010). "Fixed five-year parliamentary term will tie both leaders' hands". The Guardian. Retrieved 7 May 2011.
- ^ "Coalition asked to respect Scottish elections". Scottish National Party. 31 May 2010. Retrieved 7 May 2011.
- ^ "UK government offers Holyrood five-year terms". BBC News. 17 February 2011. Retrieved 7 May 2011.
- ^ "Salmond back Scotland 2015 election delay". BBC News. 18 February 2011. Retrieved 7 May 2011.
- ^ McNab, Scott (19 February 2011). "Holyrood set for a five-year term to avoid clash with general election". The Scotsman. Retrieved 7 May 2011.
- ^ "Scotland Act 1998 - Section 3 Extraordinary General Elections". Office of Public Sector Information. Retrieved 8 May 2007.
- ^ http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2012/01/1006/6
- ^ "Scots Tory leader Annabel Goldie announces resignation". BBC News. 9 May 2011. Retrieved 17 May 2011.
- ^ "Electoral system: How it works, 02 April 2003". BBC News Online. 2 April 2003. Retrieved 6 May 2011.
- ^ D'Hondt system, BBC News Online, 28 September 2009. Accessed 4 May 2011
- ^ "Revised Recommendations" (PDF). Boundary Commission for Scotland. Retrieved 26 April 2011.