Aggregative Contingent Estimation Program: Difference between revisions
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==History== |
==History== |
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The broad program announcement for ACE was published on June 30, 2010.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&tab=core&id=54f9f4b696ffeedf52cffc433a2fc878|title = Aggregative Contingent Estimation System|date = June 30, 2010|accessdate = May 6, 2014|publisher = [[Federal Business Opportunities]]}}</ref> ACE funded the Aggregative Contingent Estimation System (ACES) website and interface on July 15, 2011.<ref name=gcn>{{cite web|url=http://gcn.com/articles/2011/07/15/intell-crowdsourcing-forecasting-ace.aspx|title = Intell site tests crowdsourcing's ability to predict future|last = Hickey|first = Kathleen|date = July 15, 2011|accessdate = May 6, 2014|publisher = GCN}}</ref> They funded [[The Good Judgment Project]] some time around July 2011.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://goodjudgmentproject.com/blog/?p=4|title |
The broad program announcement for ACE was published on June 30, 2010.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&tab=core&id=54f9f4b696ffeedf52cffc433a2fc878|title = Aggregative Contingent Estimation System|date = June 30, 2010|accessdate = May 6, 2014|publisher = [[Federal Business Opportunities]]}}</ref> ACE funded the Aggregative Contingent Estimation System (ACES) website and interface on July 15, 2011.<ref name=gcn>{{cite web|url=http://gcn.com/articles/2011/07/15/intell-crowdsourcing-forecasting-ace.aspx|title = Intell site tests crowdsourcing's ability to predict future|last = Hickey|first = Kathleen|date = July 15, 2011|accessdate = May 6, 2014|publisher = GCN}}</ref> They funded [[The Good Judgment Project]] some time around July 2011.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://goodjudgmentproject.com/blog/?p=4 |title=The idea behind the Good Judgment Project |date=July 27, 2011 |accessdate=May 5, 2014 |publisher=The Good Judgment Project<sup>TM</sup> |deadurl=yes |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20140506202243/http://goodjudgmentproject.com/blog/?p=4 |archivedate=May 6, 2014 |df= }}</ref> ACE has been covered in the ''[[Washington Post]]''<ref name="washpo" /> and ''[[Wired Magazine]]''.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.wired.com/2010/04/can-algorithms-find-the-best-intelligence-analysts/|title = Can Algorithms Find the Best Intelligence Analysts?|last = Drummond|first = Katie|date = April 22, 2010|accessdate = May 6, 2014|publisher = ''[[Wired Magazine]]''}}</ref> The program was concluded by late 2015.<ref>{{Cite web|url = http://www.c4isrnet.com/story/military-tech/it/2015/09/23/iarpa-anticipating-surprise/72632204/|title = IARPA's high-stakes intelligence experiment|last = Corrin|first = Amber|date = 2015-09-23|website = C4ISR & Networks|access-date = 2016-03-31}}</ref> |
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==Goals and methods== |
==Goals and methods== |
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==Partners== |
==Partners== |
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The ACE has collaborated with partners who compete in its forecasting tournaments. Their most notable partner is [[The Good Judgment Project]] from [[Philip E. Tetlock]] et al.<ref name=project>{{cite web|url=http://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/about_project.html|title |
The ACE has collaborated with partners who compete in its forecasting tournaments. Their most notable partner is [[The Good Judgment Project]] from [[Philip E. Tetlock]] et al.<ref name=project>{{cite web|url=http://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/about_project.html |title=The Project |publisher=The Good Judgment Project<sup>TM</sup> |accessdate=May 5, 2014 |deadurl=yes |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20140506201121/http://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/about_project.html |archivedate=May 6, 2014 |df= }}</ref> (winner of a 2013 ACE tournament)<ref name=washpo>{{cite web|url = http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2013/11/26/good-judgment-in-forecasting-international-affairs-and-an-invitation-for-season-3/|title = Good judgment in forecasting international affairs (and an invitation for season 3)|last = Horowitz|first = Michael|date = November 26, 2013|accessdate = May 5, 2014|publisher = ''[[Washington Post]]''}}</ref> ACE also partnered with the ARA to create the Aggregative Contingent Estimation System (ACES).<ref name=gcn/> |
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Data from ACE is fed into another program, called Forecasting Science and Technology (ForeST), which partners with [[SciCast]] from [[George Mason University]].<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/forest|title = Forecasting Science & Technology (ForeST)|last = Matheny|first = Jason|accessdate = May 6, 2014|publisher = [[Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity]]}}</ref> |
Data from ACE is fed into another program, called Forecasting Science and Technology (ForeST), which partners with [[SciCast]] from [[George Mason University]].<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/forest|title = Forecasting Science & Technology (ForeST)|last = Matheny|first = Jason|accessdate = May 6, 2014|publisher = [[Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity]]}}</ref> |
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Revision as of 14:02, 5 October 2016
Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) was a program of the Office of Incisive Analysis (OIA) at the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA).[1][2] The program ran from June 2010 until June 2015.[3]
History
The broad program announcement for ACE was published on June 30, 2010.[4] ACE funded the Aggregative Contingent Estimation System (ACES) website and interface on July 15, 2011.[5] They funded The Good Judgment Project some time around July 2011.[6] ACE has been covered in the Washington Post[7] and Wired Magazine.[8] The program was concluded by late 2015.[9]
Goals and methods
The official website says that the goals of ACE are "to dramatically enhance the accuracy, precision, and timeliness of intelligence forecasts for a broad range of event types, through the development of advanced techniques that elicit, weight, and combine the judgments of many intelligence analysts."[1] The website claims that ACE seeks technical innovations in the following areas:[1]
- efficient elicitation of probabilistic judgments, including conditional probabilities for contingent events
- mathematical aggregation of judgments by many individuals, based on factors that may include: past performance, expertise, cognitive style, metaknowledge, and other attributes predictive of accuracy
- effective representation of aggregated probabilistic forecasts and their distributions.
There is a fair amount of research funded by grants made by the IARPA ACE program.[10]
Partners
The ACE has collaborated with partners who compete in its forecasting tournaments. Their most notable partner is The Good Judgment Project from Philip E. Tetlock et al.[11] (winner of a 2013 ACE tournament)[7] ACE also partnered with the ARA to create the Aggregative Contingent Estimation System (ACES).[5]
Data from ACE is fed into another program, called Forecasting Science and Technology (ForeST), which partners with SciCast from George Mason University.[12]
References
- ^ a b c Matheny, Jason; Rieber, Steve. "Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE)". Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
- ^ "Aggregative Contingent Estimation" (PDF). Office of the Director of National Intelligence, United States. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
- ^ Harbert, Tam (2015-10-19). "IARPA's New Director Wants You to Surprise Him". IEEE Spectrum. Retrieved 2016-03-31.
- ^ "Aggregative Contingent Estimation System". Federal Business Opportunities. June 30, 2010. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
- ^ a b Hickey, Kathleen (July 15, 2011). "Intell site tests crowdsourcing's ability to predict future". GCN. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
- ^ "The idea behind the Good Judgment Project". The Good Judgment ProjectTM. July 27, 2011. Archived from the original on May 6, 2014. Retrieved May 5, 2014.
{{cite web}}: Unknown parameter|deadurl=ignored (|url-status=suggested) (help) - ^ a b Horowitz, Michael (November 26, 2013). "Good judgment in forecasting international affairs (and an invitation for season 3)". Washington Post. Retrieved May 5, 2014.
{{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=(help) - ^ Drummond, Katie (April 22, 2010). "Can Algorithms Find the Best Intelligence Analysts?". Wired Magazine. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
{{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=(help) - ^ Corrin, Amber (2015-09-23). "IARPA's high-stakes intelligence experiment". C4ISR & Networks. Retrieved 2016-03-31.
- ^ "Google Scholar listing of research funded by IARPA ACE". Retrieved May 6, 2014.
- ^ "The Project". The Good Judgment ProjectTM. Archived from the original on May 6, 2014. Retrieved May 5, 2014.
{{cite web}}: Unknown parameter|deadurl=ignored (|url-status=suggested) (help) - ^ Matheny, Jason. "Forecasting Science & Technology (ForeST)". Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity. Retrieved May 6, 2014.