Nuclear blackmail
![]() | This article possibly contains original research. (November 2013) |
Nuclear blackmail is a form of nuclear strategy in which an aggressor uses the threat of use of nuclear weapons to force an adversary to perform some action or make some concessions. It is a type of extortion that is related to brinkmanship.
Effectiveness
Nuclear blackmail is usually ineffective against a rational opponent that has or is an ally of a power with assured destruction capability. If both states have nuclear weapons, nuclear blackmail becomes a threat of conflict escalation. In that situation if the opponent refuses to respond, one's choices are withdrawl of the threatened nuclear action, incurring a major loss of prestige (both in domestic and international politics) or mutual nuclear destruction. During the Cold War, the explicit threat of nuclear warfare to force an opponent to perform or not to perform an action was rare since most nations of any importance were allies of the Soviet Union or the United States.
History
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In 1950, President Truman publicly stated that the use of nuclear weapons was under "active consideration" against Chinese targets during the Korean War. [1][2][3][4]
In 1953, President Eisenhower threatened the use of nuclear weapons to end the Korean War if the Chinese refused to negotiate. [5][6][7]
In order to support the continued existence of the Republic of China government, the United States issued several nuclear threats against the People's Republic of China in the 1950s to force the evacuation of outlying islands and the cessation of attacks against Quemoy and Matsu.[8][9][10][11][12]
Declassified documents from the National Archives (UK) indicate that the United Kingdom considered threatening China with nuclear retaliation in 1961 in the event of a military reclamation of Hong Kong by China.[13]
Ali Magoudi, a psychoanalyst of French President François Mitterrand, claimed that British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher had threatened nuclear war against Argentina during the 1982 Falklands War to procure codes from France to disable Argentina's French-made missiles.[14] This claim has not been confirmed by either the French or British governments.[citation needed]
In 1981, the US Department of Energy said there had been 75 cases of nuclear blackmail against the US but only several were serious attempts.[15]
In 1991, Israel threatened Iraq with a "nuclear counter-response" if there was an attack using chemical weapons during the Gulf War. [16]
In 2002, the George W. Bush administration declared that it was prepared to strike with nuclear missiles against Iraq if biological or chemical weapons were used against American troops or their allies during the Iraq War. [17]
On January 2, 2018, US President Donald Trump threatened North Korea that the US has much more nuclear firepower than North Korea in response to a press release stating that a "nuclear button is on Kim Jong-un's desk at all times."[18]
In fiction
Nuclear blackmail, typically by a supervillain rather than a state, has been frequently employed as a plot device in spy fiction and action films. Since such a scheme appeared in the film Thunderball, the trope has been particularly associated with the James Bond series and the TV series 24. The notion of a supervillain threatening world leaders with a nuclear device has become a cliché, and has been parodied in many espionage spoofs.
See also
- Brinkmanship
- Deterrence theory
- Essentials of Post–Cold War Deterrence
- Mutual assured destruction
- Nuclear terrorism
- Samson Option
References
- ^ "FOREIGN RELATIONS OF THE UNITED STATES, 1950, KOREA, VOLUME VII". The Office of the Historian. Retrieved November 5, 2019.
- ^ "The President's News Conference". Harry S. Truman Presidential Library and Museum. November 30, 1950.
- ^ "Examples of past nuclear threats between countries". The Seattle Times. March 8, 2013.
- ^ Norris, Robert S.; Kristensen, Hans M. (September 1, 2006). "U.S. nuclear threats: Then and now". Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. 62 (5): 69–71. Bibcode:2006BuAtS..62e..69N. doi:10.2968/062005016.
- ^ "U.S. PAPERS TELL OF '53 POLICY TO USE A-BOMB IN KOREA". The New York Times. June 8, 1984.
- ^ "Eisenhower goes to Korea". History . November 13, 2019.
- ^ Norris, Robert S.; Kristensen, Hans M. (September 1, 2006). "U.S. nuclear threats: Then and now". Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. 62 (5): 69–71. Bibcode:2006BuAtS..62e..69N. doi:10.2968/062005016.
- ^ Friedman, Edward (January 1975). "Nuclear Blackmail and the end of the Korean War". Modern China. 1 (1): 75–91. doi:10.1177/009770047500100103.
- ^ "In 1955, America Was Ready for a Nuclear War with China over Taiwan". Yahoo News. August 19, 2018.
- ^ "Nixon intervention saved China from Soviet nuclear attack". South China Morning Post. May 12, 2010.
- ^ "Examples of past nuclear threats between countries". The Seattle Times. March 8, 2013.
- ^ Norris, Robert S.; Kristensen, Hans M. (September 1, 2006). "U.S. nuclear threats: Then and now". Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. 62 (5): 69–71. Bibcode:2006BuAtS..62e..69N. doi:10.2968/062005016.
- ^ "UK pondered China nuclear attack". Yahoo News. August 19, 2018. Retrieved November 8, 2013.
- ^ Henley, Jon (November 22, 2005). "Thatcher 'threatened to nuke Argentina'". The Guardian. Retrieved November 8, 2013.
- ^ "75 Nuke Extortion Cases". The Telegraph-Herald. UPI. June 15, 1981. Retrieved November 8, 2013.
- ^ Strategic Defense Initiative : what are the costs, what are the threats? : hearing before the Legislation and National Security Subcommittee of the Committee on Government Operations, House of Representatives, One Hundred Second Congress, first session, May 16 and October 1, 1991. U.S. G.P.O. 1992. ISBN 9780160385803.
- ^ "Examples of past nuclear threats between countries". The Times. December 12, 2002.
- ^ Trump, Donald. "...my Button works!". Twitter. Retrieved January 8, 2018.