Talk:Superpower

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Russia cannot become a superpower

Can whoever continues to add Russia as a potential superpower please cease doing so? Russia is not and will never again become a superpower. It's not even a world power, and is at best perhaps a regional power. Has anyone bothered to actually compare Russia's capabilities to statistics relating to economic output, population and demographic projections, military power projection and government efficiency? Had they done so, they would see that Russia's future is bleak. The country is losing 700,000 people per year,[1] a process likely to continue well into the 2050s. According to most sources, even an optimistic projection would leave Russia by 2050 with little more than 111 million people.[2] Compare that with the United States potential 450 million, the European Union's 500 million or India and China's 1 billion+. How many superpowers can have drastically falling populations? Let's be serious please.

What is more, even a cursory glance at any set of economic statistics will show that Russia's economic power is simply not sufficient to project it to superpower status. Its nominal GDP is about the same size as the combined economic output of Paris and London, or to a country like South Korea or Mexico. Compare this to the European Union's $14 trillion or the United States' $13 trillion. With a falling population, Russia has not a hope in hell of catching up, even if it went through an economic miracle.

Militarily too, Russia's armed forces are no where near sufficient to regain superpower status. Just look at the statistics! Russia's defence budget is many, many times smaller than the United States or the European Union's. It is less than half the size of the United Kingdom's! Russia lacks power projection forces too: It has not got enough aircraft carriers to sustain a constant capability, and its forces become increasingly outdated as each year passes. The US, France and Britain are all building state-of-the-art destroyers and aircraft carriers, Russia simply does not have the technological ability to compete.

So please, can we remove all future references to Russia as a superpower. Russia is not, and will never again be, a superpower. The only true superpower in today's world is the United States. Europe, China and India have aggregated potential, but have a long way to go to reach superpower status yet. Imperium Europeum 01:25, 28 September 2007 (UTC)

WP:OR, I'm afraid. Find an authoritative source that explicitly states that Russia cannot be a superpower and you may add this information. I agree that Russia isn't close to being a superpower, but we do need a reputable source. Regards, Signature^brendel 04:45, 28 September 2007 (UTC)

Original research? Are you joking? The research I've pointed to are simple statistics, which have been available for years. What is more, no matter what institution or set of statistics one uses—whether the UN, SIPRI, World Bank, IMF, IISS—the results are always the same. Imperium Europeum 00:40, 29 September 2007 (UTC)

I completely agree. This article was stabilized by a consensus to rely on meticulous sourcing as the bar that all major changes had to pass and by an outright rejection of all possible original research additions. the best you can do to make your points is find an authoritative source for them and possibly find a way to unambiguously demonstrate the inadequacy of the sources which indicate that Russia is a potential superpower. Good luck with that.Zebulin 20:45, 28 September 2007 (UTC)

The sources used to claim Russia is a superpower are not authoritative. Someone has found a quote from some random academic at some university in the United States to claim that Russia is potentially a superpower, and even then, the quote given could be taken out of context. According to almost every piece of academic research I've read, Russia is never given superpower status. Most point to it being at best a re-emerging great power (but only when dealing with energy) or a regional power. If you read again the statistics, you will see that there is no way on Earth that Russia can match the Europeans or the Americans, either now or in the future. Imperium Europeum 00:40, 29 September 2007 (UTC)

As a sometime student of Russian/FSU affairs I consider Imperium Europeum's points to be well made. But, of course, personal opinion is personal opinion. What I find remarkable is that none of the material I read on Russia, whether economic, political, and military analyses; news and opinion; statistics, seem to point me towards the 'Russia as a superpower' thesis. A strong Great power, certainly, but a superpower? This strikes me as a rather fevered or polemical hypothesis rather than one arrived at by objective scholars in the field. Are we sure that the sources we have are reputable and balanced?

I'm afraid I lack the time to do anything about this at present, but this disconnect between the Wikipedia article and the facts (ie life expectancy, infant mortality, corruption, economics, etc, etc) leads me to wonder if our sources are neutral and objective. They may illustrate an extreme POV of Russia's future, but I doubt they represent any sort of academic consensus.

Xdamr^talk 21:42, 28 September 2007 (UTC)

The sources used to 'show' that Russia is an emerging superpower are emphatically not reflective of any sort of academic consensus. I'm an academic at one of Britain's leading universities in the field of international relations, and I do not see much stating that Russia is to become a superpower—what I do see points in quite the opposite direction! Imperium Europeum 00:40, 29 September 2007 (UTC)

Absolutely, from population projections which predict a drop to 100mil by 2050 to Wednesday's Transparency International corruption index, which saw Russia fall from 126th to 143rd - can anyone really disagree that Prof Steven Rosefielde's comment seems, on the face of it, to be a tad blithe? These 'sources' seem to be extremely selective and unbalanced, violating the policy of neutrality.

Xdamr^talk 01:28, 29 September 2007 (UTC)

Just to follow up, not only do the sources seem un-reflective of academic consensus and common-sense, they are in fact utterly valueless. Footnote 60, Professor Rosefielde, seems to be little more than an Amazon puff page - is it certain that Prof Rosefielde actually stated '[c]ontrary to conventional wisdom, this goal would appear to be easily within the Kremlin's grasp', or is this merely a precis from Amazon? Either way there seems to be no attempt to analyse and refer to the arguments presented within that book, whether one agrees with the headline conclusion or not. By all means quote the book (although given that it is described as a 'polemic' I'm not sure that it is of much objective use) but you surely can't cite an Amazon page as authority for anything.

The second source, Footnote 61, quoting one RG Williams 'of the Naval Postgraduate School', is even more astonishing. Once again it is simply a precis page, but has anyone taken the time to look at it? This source (a Masters thesis) dates from 1993. 1993! Does anyone seriously contend that a paper written in 1993 can be authority for any proposition concerning contemporary Russia?

In short I entirely concur with Imperium Europeum. Common-sense leads me to disagree with the 'Russia as a superpower' argument, but I would tolerate a mention of it as part of a wider balanced discussion. However these sources are worthless and as such the section is little more than Original Research.

Xdamr^talk 01:41, 29 September 2007 (UTC)

Absolutely, I strongly concur User:Xdamr. The whole idea is so utterly absurd that anyone arguing it must be a polemicist. To argue that Russia is or might become a superpower is not only false but devalues the concept of 'superpower' itself. Moreover, if Russia is included, Britain, France, Germany, Japan, Brazil and Mexico should all be included too: All either rank more highly than Russia today or show greater potential in the medium or longer terms. Let is end this 'Russia will be a superpower' nonsense once and for all, please. Imperium Europeum 01:49, 29 September 2007 (UTC)

How can we end it in such a way that doesn't leave room for editors to remove other sourced material from the article? what sort of objective defined standard can be applied to prevent that? The existing rough consensus was that multiple sourced material is not to be removed from the article as inaccurate without directly invalidating the sources through other sources. Common sense dictates that Russia is such an extreme long shot at superpower status that nothing in it's current situation suggests that it is a potential superpower in any meaningful sense. However common sense will also lead to efforts to remove the china and EU sections for diverse reasons and this will lead to revert wars and article instability. We need a workable standard that will allow for removing the offending Russian section without requiring a double standard to protect other article content.Zebulin 08:27, 29 September 2007 (UTC)

No: China and the European Union certainly are candidates for superpower status in the near future. The EU is already the world's number one economy, and has a more than sufficient level of material capabilities (world's leading exporter; world's second largest military power; world's third largest population, and so on) and enough political cohesion (established and stable democratic systems) to project it to comprehensive superpowwer status. What is more, there is a wide academic consensus that Europe will achieve 'great power', 'global power' or 'superpower' status by the middle of the twenty-first century. The CIA suggests this might come as early as 2015! China also has the material potential to become a superpower, as does India. There is also a lot of literature supporting both of these candidates. Imperium Europeum 14:13, 29 September 2007 (UTC)

Ok, I never looked into the quality of the sources. What I suggest: 3 academics in 3 separate academic articles/books? This would show a certain support in academic circles. Newspaper articles are often more sensational and less argumented/accurate. Sijo Ripa 12:29, 29 September 2007 (UTC)

That is the point: You won't find any credible academics stating that Russia will ever again become a superpower. You might find a few academics discussing Russia's recent aggressiveness under Putin; you might find a few articles claiming that Russia is regaining 'great power' status again; indeed, you might even find several articles talking about Russia as an 'energy superpower', but none of this adds up to claiming that Russia is or is to become a comprehensive superpower again. Imperium Europeum 14:07, 29 September 2007 (UTC)

I have now updated the former Russia section with reputable academic sources from the current era. Imperium Europeum 14:49, 29 September 2007 (UTC)

I agree with Imperium's edits, FWIW. —Nightstallion 15:53, 29 September 2007 (UTC)

the changes are sourced and we have at least temporary consensus on this edit page that Russia is no potential superpower. I hope the edits will stay. We might want to keep an eye out for a source that specifically mentions Brazil as well to make that currently unsourced portion less likely to be challenged.Zebulin 16:51, 29 September 2007 (UTC)

A Brazil reference has now been added. Imperium Europeum 20:17, 29 September 2007 (UTC)

Some remarks: There is a tendency in anglo-saxon ideology to disregard and misjudge the influence of Russia. Because of Cold War historic opposition an almost allergic mismeasurement is still reflected in this discussion and its proposals. I´m not a devils advocate but some facts remain: Russia holds an active seat in UN Security Council, leading to influence Iran and Kosovo politics. Russia is key player in energy politics and future resources because demand is rising. Any demographic projection over 2020 is not more than fantasy speculation. Within the next 20 years India will remain a passive underdeveloped giant without even regional power projection, it belongs in 'Other Candidates'. The concept of superpower is a phenomenon of the 20th century and 'Future superpowers' should be cited in a neutral and very cautious manner. This is not the case now. all the best Lear 21 19:35, 29 September 2007 (UTC)

All very well, but a permanent UNSC seat and influence in the Balkans or Iran does not constitute superpower status. Russia may be a great power, or a large regional power, which is reflected in the quotes in the updated section, so the new section is not misjudged or overtly 'anglocentric'. Russia's population projections are accurate, short of some miracle or mass immigration into the country. India may also belong in the 'other candidates' section, but it does now have one of the largest and most powerful navies in the world—equipped with aircraft carriers—and a rapidly growing economy, with over 1 billion people. It should remain with a separate category. Imperium Europeum 20:16, 29 September 2007 (UTC)

I´m not advocating to lift Russia in potential Superpower status, but the current citation is not more than a harrassing rant of a ColdWar academic. The role of Russia must be presented in its actual powers. This is not the case, it is rather highly biased. India´s economy doesnt even meet nominal total GDP of Spain, it is a third world country. The growing economic data won´t change any relevant power projection in the near future. The India section includes several overenthusiastic POV statements. India must be integrated in other countries. Lear 21 21:03, 29 September 2007 (UTC)

What? Barry Buzan, 'a ColdWar academic'? Hardly! He's one of the most renowned scholars in the field of international relations. I could be persuaded on India, however. It certainly has potential, but many impediments also remain. Could someone create a table or template called 'Superpowers: Existing and Potential', listing their GDP (nominal), Defence spending, population, area, percentage of world trade, and so on, for the dates 2000, 2005, 2007, and maybe a projection, say 2020? I don't know how to do it. Imperium Europeum 22:32, 29 September 2007 (UTC)

Why should the projected population of Russia be significant when determining it's international power? It seems contradictory to claim Russia's decline rules out the possibility of it becoming a superpower while still calling the US the sole superpower (It's population is less than a quarter of China's, yet it is widely considered more 'powerful').And why is economics important? Nominal GDP is not budget, and the value of currency is not constant across nations (Eg The average income in Serbia may be much lower than in Australia, but goods would cost significantly less in the former). This is not to say that the figures are useless, but the state of the military is far more important when measuring power, and Russia is rapidly expanding it's army. It may not be a superpower currently, but to claim with certainty that it will never ascend to that status seems incorrect. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 58.164.43.208 (talk) 13:34, 4 October 2007 (UTC)

Under which rule in the Wikipedia guidelines do you, Imperium Europeum, base your conclusions that professor Steven Rosefielde is not a credible scholar? I'm not going to assume bad faith as to how you arrived at that conclusion. Nevertheless, I've reinstated the bit, because for the sake of neutrality we need to mention the fact that there is not a unanimous consensus that Russia has no potential as a superpower. Steven Rosefielde is a real professor at University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, and he has published several books on Russian studies. If you want to tell him he's a loony because you work at one of "Britain's leading universities" and you said so, feel free to email him. I'm going to insert page numbers from his book so there should be no problems as far as proper citations are concerned. As for your addition on Russia as an energy superpower, I've moved that from this article to the energy superpower article. Superpower and energy superpower are not one and the same, and if we're going to discuss Russia's status as energy superpower we need to do it in the appropriate article.--71.112.159.122 01:35, 8 October 2007 (UTC)

Amazon sources

There seem to be many references linking to Amazon, citing books. Is this really a suitable method of citation? Surely the author, book, date, place of publication, and page numbers should be mentioned instead? —Preceding unsigned comment added by Imperium Europeum (talk • contribs) 20:37, 29 September 2007 (UTC)

I'll wager that we see so many of these simply because they have turned up in google searches. I doubt that editors have taken the time and trouble to read the majority of these texts, to try and understand their arguments, and to summarise them in this article. I would suggest that we remove all 'sources' which consist solely of a reference to an Amazon (or other) precis. This sort of sloppiness would certainly not pass muster in any institute of learning - I see no reason why it should be tolerated here. I fear that this superficial treatment of sources and citations is down to an excess of enthusiasm over actual knowledge and expertise. International relations is one of these areas in which everyone fancies himself an expert, but I think that we ought to start to apply some standards of academic rigour with respect to that which we are, or are not, prepared to accept.

Xdamr^talk 23:10, 29 September 2007 (UTC)

Absolutely. All references to random websites and Amazon listings should be removed, along with any spurious claims they are supposed to support. This article needs to be comprehensively overhauled. Further, we need a table listing each superpower and potential superpower, with lists of capabilities (e.g. economic output (nominal GDP), defence spending, world trade share, population, urbanisation, percentage of top universities, and so on) so that readers can compare the capabilities of the relevant powers. This would represent an excellent supplement to the views of academic sources, which can sometimes themselves be biased to a particular worldview. Imperium Europeum 23:35, 29 September 2007 (UTC)

let's define "random websites" before we start removing references without replacing them with more suitable ones. Surely blogs and personal web pages should qualify as "random websites" but what else are we excluding?Zebulin 00:33, 30 September 2007 (UTC)

Anything that is not reputable for information. Thus, Amazon, polemical websites, websites containing conspiracy theories, and so on, do not constitute authoritative knowledge on the issues contained in this article. It might be possible to link to some blogs and personal websites, however, if they are written by authoritative sources such as journalists, politicians or academics. What must be changed is quotes that link to Amazon product listings: If a source cannot be properly verified (e.g. page number) then it is not a credible reference and has no place in Wikipedia. Imperium Europeum 05:50, 30 September 2007 (UTC)